It’s back-to-back days where both the main DFS sites have identical slates. For today’s article, we are looking at the 11:05 a.m. ET main slate on both sites. On each site, the slate includes 10 games starting between 11:05 a.m. ET and 12:20 p.m. ET.
Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (5/18)
- It’s a difficult day if you want to target the highest-priced pitchers. Many have difficult matchups. Because of that, we are going to go a little off the very top end and look at Spencer Schwellenbach. His matchup is still far from easy with the Boston Red Sox. However, the Red Sox are fourth in all of baseball in strikeout rate at 23.8%.
- The Texas Rangers have a bottom-five offense by runs scored. Framber Valdez has settled in the last two games with seven strikeouts in each game. Valdez has made 14 starts in his career against the Rangers, recording a 2.83 ERA and over a strikeout per inning. The value on DraftKings makes him a near must-play on that site.
- Luis Ortiz has been erratic, but the good games have been very good. He has gone over 20 fantasy points in three of his last five starts, including 25.9 in his last start. In half of the eight starts he has made this season, he has struck out at least eight batters.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Detroit Tigers Projected Lineup (5/18)
It’s back-to-back days where both the main DFS sites have identical slates. For today’s article, we are looking at the 11:05 a.m. ET main slate on both sites. On each site, the slate includes 10 games starting between 11:05 a.m. ET and 12:20 p.m. ET.
Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (5/18)
- It’s a difficult day if you want to target the highest-priced pitchers. Many have difficult matchups. Because of that, we are going to go a little off the very top end and look at Spencer Schwellenbach. His matchup is still far from easy with the Boston Red Sox. However, the Red Sox are fourth in all of baseball in strikeout rate at 23.8%.
- The Texas Rangers have a bottom-five offense by runs scored. Framber Valdez has settled in the last two games with seven strikeouts in each game. Valdez has made 14 starts in his career against the Rangers, recording a 2.83 ERA and over a strikeout per inning. The value on DraftKings makes him a near must-play on that site.
- Luis Ortiz has been erratic, but the good games have been very good. He has gone over 20 fantasy points in three of his last five starts, including 25.9 in his last start. In half of the eight starts he has made this season, he has struck out at least eight batters.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Detroit Tigers Projected Lineup (5/18)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| OF |
Kerry Carpenter |
$4,500 |
$3,300 |
| 2B |
Gleyber Torres |
$4,900 |
$3,400 |
| 1B/2B (FD) |
Colt Keith |
$3,200 |
$2,500 |
| OF |
Riley Greene |
$4,600 |
$3,400 |
| 1B |
Spencer Torkelson |
$4,800 |
$3,200 |
| 3B/OF/SS/2B (FD) |
Zach McKinstry |
$3,700 |
$2,900 |
| C |
Dillon Dingler |
$4,000 |
$2,600 |
| SS |
Trey Sweeney |
$3,100 |
$2,700 |
| OF/SS/3B (FD) |
Javier Baez |
$3,800 |
$2,900 |
- Since the start of May, only the Dodgers have a higher team OPS than the Detroit Tigers. Today, they are opposed by Jose Berrios. Berrios leads baseball in walks issued with 24, and has also allowed nine home runs. Runners on base and home runs allowed are a recipe for fantasy success for an offense.
- One hitter you should be looking to target is Riley Greene. First, Greene is on a bit of a heater right now with three home runs in the past week. He is also substantially better against right-handed pitchers with a .971 OPS.
- Another batter who does substantially better against right-handed pitchers is Kerry Carpenter. Carpenter has a .921 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. Both Carpenter and Greene have hard-hit rates above 35%.
- A cheaper option would be Trey Sweeney. He has hit half of his four home runs over the past two weeks. He is another batter in the Tigers’ lineup who is better against right-handed pitching, with a nearly 33% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers.
Baltimore Orioles Projected Lineup (5/18)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| 2B/SS (FD) |
Jackson Holliday |
$3,300 |
$2,700 |
| 1B |
Ryan Mountcastle |
$3,500 |
$2,600 |
| SS |
Gunnar Henderson |
$4,900 |
$3,200 |
| C |
Adley Rutschman |
$4,200 |
$2,900 |
| OF/1B (FD) |
Ryan O’Hearn |
$4,200 |
$2,900 |
| OF |
Tyler O’Neill |
$4,300 |
$2,900 |
| OF |
Cedric Mullins |
$4,600 |
$3,300 |
| OF |
Ramon Laureano |
$3,000 |
$2,600 |
| 3B/2B/1B (FD) |
Ramon Urias |
$2,800 |
$2,400 |
- The Baltimore Orioles have struggled to put runs on the scoreboard this season. The actual production hasn’t caught up to the underlying data for many of their hitters. A matchup with Michael Soroka could be the start of changing that. Soroka has only made three starts as he has dealt with a biceps injury. He has essentially become a two-pitch pitcher now by leaning into a new slurve. It has helped him to keep the ball on the ground (51.3%), but he is also getting hit hard with a 92 miles per hour (MPH) average exit velocity.
- Let’s start with one player who is drastically underperforming his metrics in Ryan Mountcastle. He only has two home runs with a .233 batting average. Yet, he’s in the top 25th percentile in all three of barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Mountcastle’s expected batting average is around 30 points higher.
- His fellow first namesake, Ryan O’Hearn, is also in play against a right-handed pitcher. O’Hearn rarely plays against left-handed pitchers. Against right-handed pitchers, he has a .951 OPS.
- Gunnar Henderson hit half of his season home runs in the past two weeks. He has a .932 OPS in the past two weeks, which is similar to his season-long OPS against right-handed pitchers. For the season, he has a .972 OPS against right-handed pitchers and only a .401 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
Core Studs
- Jose Ramirez is always in play, but he has been even better against left-handed pitchers this season (1.125).
- I have been among the biggest Pete Crow-Armstrong skeptics this season, but he has consistently proved me wrong. He is now up to 12 home runs and 14 stolen bases. He has raised his OPS over 50 points in the last two series with his power production.
- Another player who is always in play is Bobby Witt Jr. He has an OPS over .900 against both right-handed and left-handed pitching. Against left-handed pitchers, though, it jumps to .984. Today’s opposing starting pitcher is left-hander Matthew Liberatore.
Value Plays/Punts
- Marcus Semien is only batting .173 with three home runs, which is why he has fallen to the value play range. A matchup with Framber Valdez could help spark a turnaround. He is 11-for-36 in his career against Valdez with three extra-base hits.
- Yesterday, Nolan Arenado was a core stud. Today, his value dipped a bit, so he is a value play. Arenado is 9-for-19 in his career against Michael Wacha with four home runs.
- Bo Bichette’s average has been there all season. He has also dialed in his home run swing with three in his last seven games.
Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Ivan Herrera: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI — Higher
Ivan Herrera missed a month earlier this season with knee inflammation. He returned from the injured list (IL) on May 9th and has recorded a hit in all seven games since his return. Herrera’s hitting prowess has helped him to clear this line in six out of seven games since returning.
Pete Alonso: 1.5 Total Bases — Higher
Pete Alonso draws a tough matchup with left-handed pitcher Max Fried. Alonso has been crushing left-handed pitching this season. He has a 50% hard-hit rate against lefties this season, which has led to two home runs.
Michael King: 6.5 Strikeouts — Higher
Michael King has been a bit erratic with the strikeout production this season. In six of his nine starts, he has had six or more strikeouts.
In the other three starts, he has had no more than three. I expect today will be a strikeout game for King against a Mariners team striking out 23% of the time.
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