When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Here are players to target or avoid with early, middle, and late first-round draft picks in 2025 fantasy football leagues.
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Fantasy Football Draft Advice & Strategy
Early-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Target at 1.02 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
Making the wrong pick at 1.02 can destroy your fantasy football season before it even gets started. Just ask those who drafted McCaffrey in 2024. We’ll make the case for and against each player you should consider at the top of your drafts.
For some, this will be as simple as preferring to draft a running back at the top of the draft, and that thought process is understandable, but Ja’Marr Chase does warrant your attention. If he isn’t taken at the 1.01, there’s a strong case to be had for drafting him with the 1.02 pick. In 2024, Chase led all wide receivers in receptions (117), receiving yards (1,612) and touchdowns (16), along with scoring two more full PPR points per game than the next nearest contender, Justin Jefferson.
There used to be a thought process that Chase only blew up when Tee Higgins was injured, but last year, Chase scored more points when Higgins was healthy at a rate of 24.68 versus 21.36 points per game. The Bengals’ porous defense caused them to rely heavily on the passing game, and with very little added to solve that this offseason, it’s fair to expect more of the same in 2025. Chase has recorded over 100 receptions in back-to-back years and has gone over 1,200 receiving yards in three of his four seasons. He is as reliable as they come.
Coming off an unbelievable season, Saquon Barkley might very well be the easiest click for many heading into 2025. Barkley overcame having a lack of goal-line touches because of the Eagles’ tush push by simply rushing for 330 more yards than the next nearest running back. Barkley also notched 15 touchdowns and was a top-five fantasy back in seven weeks.
The doubts about Barkley’s role in the receiving game turned out to be fair, with him recording a career-low 33 receptions, but it simply didn’t matter because of Barkley’s efficiency in this excellent Eagles offense. The negatives for Barkley would be whether that efficiency continues, along with him having over 400 combined touches in the playoffs and regular season.
The history of running backs seeing that much volume tends not to be kind to them in their next season, which is why it’s not as straightforward as some may like. The last time a running back repeated as the fantasy RB1 in back-to-back years was Priest Holmes in 2003. History is very much against Barkley’s odds here.
Unlike Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson has had to deal with a healthy or perhaps unhealthy amount of quarterback turnover in his time with the Minnesota Vikings. That hasn’t stopped Jefferson from producing, though, averaging 96.5 receiving yards per game throughout his career with no year below 87.5. For reference, only five players averaged above that mark in 2024, one of whom was Jefferson.
The last time that Jefferson was the WR1 was 2022, and he’s been a mainstay in the top five receivers in PPR points per game since 2021. That kind of consistency can be worth paying up for. The case against Jefferson would be that he’s playing with an inexperienced quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury. If both Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are also on the field, there are a lot of mouths to be fed.
Sometimes, rather than going off who finished highest last year, it can pay to take a more forward-thinking approach. Bijan Robinson ranked third among running backs in rushing yards (1,456) and scored only two fewer touchdowns than James Cook and Derrick Henry, who led all backs with 16 scores during the fantasy season.
Robinson also ranked first out of 46 running backs in the lowest proportion of his runs being stuffed at the line of scrimmage and ranked in the top two in success rate in both man and zone scheme runs, per Fantasy Points. In the receiving game, Robinson trailed only Jahmyr Gibbs with 58 receptions. He scores touchdowns, accumulates a lot of yards and earns targets — it’s the recipe we want to look for in the potential overall fantasy RB1.
Middle-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Target at 1.07 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
The Rams are primed for a bounce-back year, having put their eggs in a Puka Nacua-shaped cart after moving on from Cooper Kupp. Davante Adams should help alleviate some of the pressure from Nacua, with him ranking 58th in ESPN’s open score metric, compared to Kupp, who ranked 108th out of 116 qualifying wide receivers.
Nacua has averaged 6.6 receptions per game over his two seasons and has consistently delivered. The only area he could improve is touchdowns, with nine combined across two seasons, but that shouldn’t be enough to dissuade us from drafting Nacua highly.
A month ago, it felt like De’Von Achane was firmly undervalued, going towards the 14th pick overall. Now, though, we’re looking at a very different landscape. Since Jonnu Smith‘s trade to Pittsburgh, Achane is firmly establishing himself as a first-round selection.
After a prolific first season in efficiency metrics but lacking in volume, Achane took it up a notch in 2024, despite the Dolphins being a miserable mess. Achane led all running backs with 78 catches, while also leading the position with 591 receiving yards and tying Rachaad White in receiving touchdowns with six apiece.
Achane had 70% of the Dolphins’ carries inside the 5-yard line, a higher number than Bijan Robinson. His only downside was a lack of touches. Now, though, Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert have moved on, and there’s a chance for Achane to break the league.
Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Target at 1.10 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
As the summer goes on, don’t be surprised if average draft position (ADP) pushes running backs higher up draftboards, particularly if Christian McCaffrey stays healthy, but for now, both McCaffrey and Ashton Jeanty should be available to consider in this range.
It would be naive to put Christian McCaffrey this high without acknowledging this pick won’t be for everyone. Risk tolerance plays a big part in whether you’ll be drafting McCaffrey in 2025, given he’s only played over 11 games once in the last four years.
When he is on the field, though, he’s typically a league-winning type of back who brings elite volume and elite pass-catching skills.
According to reports, McCaffrey took part in everything at organized team activities (OTAs), including some drills most veterans sat out, indicating he’s over the Achilles issues he suffered through in 2024.
If he can stay healthy, he can potentially be a league winner once again. In 2023, when McCaffrey was last healthy, he ranked first in rushing yards (1,459), second in yards per carry (5.36), fourth in explosive run rate (7.4%) and first in missed tackles forced (63).
With no Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a multi-ligament knee injury, the stage is set for McCaffrey to prove he can be an elite RB once again.
Whenever we draft rookie running backs this high, it’s worth remembering that since 1984, the only rookie to finish as the RB1 was Saquon Barkley in 2018.
However, it’s also worth considering that Ashton Jeanty belongs right in the same tier of prospect as Barkley was when he entered the league.
Jeanty possesses rare qualities in his vision and pass-catching abilities, and with Geno Smith at quarterback, he’ll play with someone comfortable getting the ball to his best players.
Jeanty averaged over six yards per carry in each of his last two seasons and didn’t catch a ton of passes in his final season because he was routinely taking the ball to the house.
The Raiders had no problem drafting Jeanty with the sixth overall pick, and it’s hard not to want to do so in fantasy drafts when he could be a lock for 300+ touches in his rookie season.
One of the true bright spots of 2024 fantasy football was Malik Nabers, who broke Puka Nacua’s record for rookie receptions with 109. If it weren’t for Brock Bowers getting to 112, he might be talked up even further.
The argument against drafting Nabers last year was his poor quarterback situation, and while it isn’t exactly perfect this year, Nabers showed enough to assuage any doubts. Current reports suggest it’s a true battle between Russell Wilson and Jaxson Dart for the QB1 job, with Jameis Winston a distant third choice.
Any of those options could be better than last year’s quadrant of poor options. Among quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle all ranked in the bottom 20% of yards per attempt (YPA), and only DeVito ranked above 40th in quarterback rating (33rd).
Wilson ranked 16th in quarterback rating and 18th in YPA, while the Giants believed in Dart enough to spend a first-round pick on him.
Nabers continues to have minimal competition around him, with Wan’Dale Robinson the most noteworthy. Nabers should be set for another top-10 positional finish, having finished as the fantasy WR6 in 2024.
One of the more divisive picks of the first round is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who some people view as potentially in trouble due to the emergence of Jameson Williams, as well as a healthy offseason for Sam LaPorta.
However, St. Brown has seen 140+ targets in each of the last three seasons, as well as seeing his touchdowns increase each year in the league to a career-high 12 in 2024.
In full PPR formats, St. Brown will be an easier click than in half-PPR leagues. Ultimately, how much should you worry about a receiver who has finished as the WR3 in total points for the last two seasons?
Since the start of the 2023 season, Nico Collins leads all wide receivers in yards per route run versus man coverage and his journey from zero to hero has been truly impressive. Whether Collins can crack the top receivers altogether is a tough question, but he’s an interesting upside swing at this point in the draft.
Collins is the obvious alpha in an offense featuring two new rookie receivers, the often-injured Christian Kirk and Tank Dell, who potentially could miss the entire season. According to Fantasy Points Data, Collis is the only wide receiver who has ranked inside the top 10 of yards per route run versus zone coverage and man coverage in back-to-back years.
In Weeks 1-5 last year, Collins was the WR2 overall, averaging 21.6 points per game before missing time with a hamstring injury. The injury history might be enough to put some people off, but one thing we’ve learned in fantasy football is that you’re injury prone until you’re not, and that presents an opportunity.
A true league-winner in 2024, available in the mid-rounds and coming up big down the stretch, Brian Thomas Jr. heads into his sophomore season with a new head coach in Liam Coen, who was one of the most desired offensive minds this offseason.
If Coen can help elevate Trevor Lawrence to the range people believed he was capable of coming out of college, we could see an even greater second season from Thomas, which is quite something to say when he finished third in receiving yardage behind only Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase.
Thomas was one of eight receivers to hit double-digit touchdowns last season. He achieved this despite being held to a 76% route participation up until Week 11; that number should be 90+ throughout 2025.
Draft Advice for Every First-Round Pick
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.01
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.02
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.03
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.04
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.05
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.06
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.07
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.08
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.09
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.10
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.11
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.12
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