Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Quarterbacks
Drake Maye did the best he could last year with a pitiful supporting cast. His offensive line was patchwork at best, and arguably, his top two pass catchers were Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas. Despite all of this, in the nine games Maye played at least 90% of the snaps, he averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the QB11 last year. In those contests, he averaged. 36.8 rushing yards per game, which would have ranked fifth among quarterbacks last season. Overall, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye ranked 27th in yards per attempt, 17th in CPOE, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, 18th in hero throw rate, and had the 13th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Maye could surprise in Week 1 with a soft opening matchup against the Raiders. The Raiders have overhauled their secondary, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be good in 2025. Eric Stokes and Kyu Kelly as their perimeter corners are suspect at best. The Raiders also had the 12th-lowest pressure rate last year. While the return of Maxx Crosby will help in that department, the rest of their defensive line is mediocre. Maye should have time in the pocket if his rebuilt offensive line can prove competent. Last year, the Raiders allowed the 14th-most passing yards per game, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, and the eighth-highest CPOE. All of these figures could be even worse in 2025.
Trevor Lawrence had another disappointing season in 2024 that was ultimately cut short by injury. He was knocked out of Week 9 with a shoulder issue, only to return for Week 13 and leave the game with a concussion. He didn’t play another snap in 2024. In Weeks 1-9, Lawrence was the QB15 in fantasy points per game. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 34th in CPOE, 16th in hero throw rate, and 19th in highly accurate throw rate. The injuries took a toll not only on his passing numbers but also on his rushing production. In the three previous seasons, Lawrence ranked eighth, tenth, and ninth in rushing yards among quarterbacks. Last year, he had only 11.9 rushing yards per game, which was 33rd among quarterbacks. Lawrence might have a stiffer test in Week 1 than many are expecting. Last year, in Weeks 9-16, with Jaycee Horn still active, the Panthers held opposing passers to the fourth-fewest yards per attempt and the 13th-lowest passer rating and CPOE. This defense has only improved this offseason with the additions of Bobby Brown III, Tershawn Wharton, Patrick Jones II, Princely Umanmielen, Tre’von Moehrig, and Mike Jackson. They finished last in the NFL in pressure rate last year, despite ranking eighth in blitz rate. I’ll be lower than consensus on Lawrence in Week 1.
Brock Purdy continues to hum along as a QB1 in fantasy after finishing as the QB10 and QB6 in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. Last year, Purdy flashed some rushing upside, too, as he ranked 11th in rushing yards and seventh in rushing scores among quarterbacks. Last year, he ranked third in yards per attempt, ninth in CPOE, and tenth in fantasy points per dropback. Purdy has a tough matchup against what could be a top 5-10 defense in 2025. Last year, in Weeks 11-18, Seattle held quarterbacks to the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE while featuring the fourth-highest two-high rate (57.8%). The feather in Purdy’s cap is that against two high last year, he ranked fifth-best in yards per attempt, 12th in CPOE, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback.
Over the last three seasons, when he has been a starting quarterback, Justin Fields has finished inside the top ten fantasy quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (QB7, QB9, QB5). Last year, in his six starts for Pittsburgh, he was the QB7 in fantasy points per game while averaging 9.2 carries and 38.5 rushing yards per game. If Fields had kept up that rushing pace for the entire season, he would have finished fifth in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks, immediately behind Jalen Hurts. He also took a step forward as a passer last year. In Weeks 1-6, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 17th in CPOE, fourth-best in highly accurate throw rate, 12th-best in catchable target rate, and he boasted the ninth-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate. Fields’ opening test against his former team looks like a daunting one. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Pittsburgh ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 14th in passer rating, and gave up the sixth-highest CPOE, but they have SUBSTANTIALLY upgraded their secondary this offseason. The additions of Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey to fit in alongside Joey Porter Jr. make this arguably the best starting trio of corners in the NFL. Fields will need all the rushing equity he can get in Week 1.
Last year, Jared Goff‘s 6.9% passing touchdown rate (third-best in the NFL) carried him to a QB7 finish in fantasy points per game. His previous best finish in fantasy points per game was QB11 in 2023. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked second in yards per attempt, 12th in CPOE, and fourth in highly accurate throw rate. Goff could have a field day against the Packers’ secondary if their pass rush doesn’t get home. Last year, the Packers were 16th in pressure rate. Yes, that will go up with Micah Parsons on the field, but I don’t know if he’ll be an every-down player as he’s dealing with a back issue and missed the preseason and training camp with the contract holdout. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Green Bay allowed the 13th-highest success rate per dropback and ninth-highest CPOE, and now they are fielding a downgraded secondary. Their starting trio of corners with Keisean Nixon (2024: 66.3% catch rate and 97.5 passer rating allowed), Nate Hobbs (2024: 67.4% catch rate and 96.3 passer rating allowed), and Javon Bullard (2024: 84.2% catch rate and 119.8 passer rating allowed) doesn’t exactly strike fear in a quarterback’s heart. If Goff’s new look offensive line can keep him clean, he should shred this secondary.
Jordan Love wasn’t able to follow up on his massive 2024 breakout campaign with another successful season. Injuries played a sizable role in this, as Love sustained a sprained MCL in Week 1 and a groin injury in Week 8. In Weeks 4-17, after his return from the knee injury, he was the QB14 in fantasy points per game. Overall, he finished 15th in CPOE, 37th in highly accurate throw rate, and 24th in catchable target rate. With the lower half ailments, he only amassed 83 rushing yards as well after piling up 247 in the previous season. It all went off the rails as the Packers tried to protect Love, as they had the second-highest neutral rushing rate behind only the Eagles. The Packers will pass more in 2025. The Lions’ pass defense at full strength could give Love fits out the gate. Last year, Detroit’s defense was ravaged by injuries. In Weeks 1-6, with Carlton Davis and Aidan Hutchinson healthy, this pass defense was nasty, allowing the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest CPOE. Yes, Davis is gone, but the Lions replaced him with D.J. Reed (2024: 58.3% catch rate and 91.7 passer rating allowed), who is a stud. Love could have some hiccups in Week 1, but he has the talent around him to overcome them if Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden can make some big plays. The floor is low for Love this week, though, if Doubs and Golden don’t come through.
Last year was disastrous for Stroud as he tumbled from the QB7 in fantasy points per game to the QB28. Everything that could have gone wrong did. His offensive line imploded. Nico Collins was in and out of the lineup, while Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs were lost to season-ending injuries. Stroud didn’t help matters with the fifth-highest time to throw and the 15th-highest pressure-to-sack ratio. Stroud will operate behind a retooled offensive line in 2025 that honestly couldn’t be worse than what he dealt with last year. The skill player cabinet has been restocked. Stroud should post solid numbers in Week 1 against a secondary that, in Weeks 10-18 last year, allowed the eighth-highest success rate per dropback, 11th-highest EPA per dropback, and was 16th in passer rating.
Let’s call a spade a spade here. Caleb Williams had a VERY tough rookie season. The ballyhooed savior of the Windy City didn’t exactly have the start to his career that many people hoped for and hyped. Williams was the QB21 in fantasy points per game, which was aided greatly by his legs (seventh in rushing yards among quarterbacks). Williams was the QB12 in expected fantasy points per game, so the disappointment was very real. When we discuss what he did as a passer, the true tragedy becomes apparent. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams ranked 34th in yards per attempt, 24th in CPOE, and 26th in highly accurate throw rate. Williams had the ninth-highest off-target rate and the second-lowest catchable target rate (only Anthony Richardson was worse). The Bears have added a TON of personnel to help Williams find his footing in year two with offensive line upgrades, a strong play-caller (Ben Johnson), and the additions of Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. Williams looked good in brief preseason action, but we need to see him do it in the regular season. Asking Williams to hit the ground running against a Brian Flores defense in Week 1 is probably asking too much, though. Last year, Minnesota blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL while also ranking sixth in pressure rate. The Vikings also kept quarterbacks in check, giving up the 12th-fewest yards per attempt and passing touchdowns and the second-lowest passer rating.
Yes, I know we haven’t seen J.J. McCarthy play outside of an abbreviated preseason sample last year, but I’m a big believer in his talent and Kevin O’Connell to get the best out of him. The Vikings remain loaded with skill players and added to the offensive line this offseason to give their new signal caller all the time in the world to dice up opposing pass defenses in 2025. Sam Darnold (yes, that Sam Darnold) finished as the QB9 in fantasy points per game last year. In his final collegiate season, McCarthy ranked inside the top 12 FBS quarterbacks in passing grade, adjusted completion rate, yards per attempt, adjusted completion rate with downfield throws, and against pressure. McCarthy will have a tough assignment against a new-look Bears pass defense this week. New defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will install a two-high heavy scheme. In two of his last three seasons with New Orleans, his defense was top eight in two high usage (seventh & eighth), utilizing it 51.7-52.1% of the snaps. This should mesh well with Chicago’s defense. Last year, when utilizing two high, Chicago held quarterbacks to the eighth-lowest CPOE, the third-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest yards per attempt.
The light finally came on for Bryce Young down the stretch last year. In Weeks 12-18, he was the QB8 in fantasy points per game, averaging 25.4 rushing yards per game, which would have ranked 12th-best overall last year. During that stretch, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Young ranked eighth in CPOE, 12th in highly accurate throw rate, and second in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). He was aggressively pushing the ball downfield with the fifth-highest deep throw rate in the NFL behind only Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love. Young should get off to a good start this week. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Jacksonville allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt and second-most passing yards per game. They added Jourdan Lewis and Eric Murray this offseason, but this is still likely a plus matchup for Young. Last season, Jacksonville also had the third-lowest pressure rate, so Young should have time in the pocket to pick apart this defense.
Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks last season, Tua Tagovailoa had the lowest aDOT (5.9) and the second-lowest time to throw behind only Cooper Rush. While this Chad Pennington-esque approach hurt his receivers, it didn’t impact Tagovailoa’s fantasy output, as he was the QB13 in fantasy points per game. Among the previous subset of quarterbacks discussed, he also ranked 18th in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, tenth in CPOE, and first in highly accurate throw rate. With Lou Anarumo taking over the Colts’ defensive playcalling this year, I expect that we’ll still see a ton of single high usage. Last year, Indy was 11th in single high rate (56.2%). In two of Anarumo’s final three seasons with Cincy, he utilized single high between 53.9-59.8% of snaps. Last year, Tagovailoa ranked 11th in passer rating and CPOE and tenth in fantasy points per dropback against single high. Last season, in Weeks 10-18, Indy allowed the seventh-highest success rate per dropback, the tenth-highest yards per attempt, and ranked 14th in EPA per dropback, but I’ll say that not only did they change defensive coordinators, they added a new starting corner duo. Charvarius Ward and Xavien Howard take over on the perimeter this season, which will hopefully be upgrades for the Colts. This is a middle-of-the-road matchup for Tagovailoa.
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