Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
A.J. Brown was a ghost in Week 1. He had only one target (4.3% target share), eight receiving yards, and a 10% first-read share. He had only one first read target, which is not like Brown. I don’t want to play injury conspiracy theorist here, but I don’t think Brown is fully healthy based on his Week 1 usage and the fact that he failed to record a single route win (31 routes). Plugging Brown into your lineups in Week 2 is a risk. There’s no doubt about it. We have a one-game nightmare fuel sample to work off of. Playing him just comes down to your other options at the wide receiver position. Facing the Kansas City secondary could work in his favor if they don’t improve their play in Week 2. Last week, they allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Tee Higgins didn’t get off to the fast start that we all hoped for in Week 1. Higgins was the WR59 in weekly scoring, seeing a 17.4% target share with a 27.3% air-yard share with 1.32 yards per route run and a 26.7% first-read share. It’s one game, people. His first read share and his 0.167 separation score in Week 1 alleviate my fears. It’s only one game, so I’m not going to overreact about Higgins or believe that the Jaguars’ secondary is stout. Last year, they allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Fire up Higgins this week.
In Week 1, Mike Evans had quiet open to the season as the WR37 in weekly scoring. Among 105 qualifying receivers, he still ranked fifth in separation and third in route win rate, so I’m not concerned, as he also had strong market share metrics. Evans had a 25% target share, a 34.3% air-yard share, 0.129 first downs per route run, and a 30% first-read share. Evans dealt with A.J. Terrell on 55% of his routes in Week 1, securing three of his five targets with 28 receiving yards. Evans has another tough matchup this week, but Kamari Lassiter (100% catch rate and 142.4 passer rating allowed) and Derek Stingley Jr. (71.4% catch rate and 94.9 passer rating) had some hiccups last week out of the gate. If they are still a tad off their games in Week 2, as players find their regular-season legs, look for Evans to capitalize.
Courtland Sutton was the WR12 in fantasy in Week 1. I was worried about a L’Jarius Sneed shadow in Week 1, but Sneed wasn’t a full-time player as Tennessee eased him into action to begin the season. Sutton dominated the passing work in Week 1 for Denver with a 22.5% target share, a 30.7% air-yard share, 0.108 first downs per route run, and a 37.5% first-read share. In Week 1, Indy utilized two high at the ninth-highest rate (52.8%). Last year, against two high, Sutton had a 24% target per route run rate and 25.9% first-read share. His efficiency took a little hit with 0.081 first downs per route run. Sutton should be a steady option for fantasy again this week. I’m not overly concerned about Charvarius Ward or Xavien Howard on the perimeter at this point in the season. Nix will still hyper-target Sutton in Week 2.
Emeka Egbuka made his presence known in Week 1. He was the WR4 in fantasy, earning an 18.8% target share with 2.03 yards per route run and a 20% first-read share. Egbuka spiked two touchdowns and saw an endzone target while running 45.5% of his routes from the slot. Among 104 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 24th in route win rate. Egbuka has a tough matchup in Week 2, but he should be in starting lineups. Kamari Lassiter (100% catch rate and 142.4 passer rating allowed) and Derek Stingley Jr. (71.4% catch rate and 94.9 passer rating) had some hiccups last week out of the gate. If they’re still off their games, Egbuka can take advantage when outside. If not, he should still have a productive day against a defense that allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to the slot in Week 1. Last year, Houston allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to the slot.
Tetairoa McMillan was stifled in Week 1 by Bryce Young‘s play, but there’s a ton to be encouraged with here with his usage as the WR30 for the week. He had a 22.9% target share with a 40.6% air-yard share (16th-best), 1.94 yards per route run, a 27.3% first-read share, and 0.114 first downs per route run. McMillan looks the part of the alpha that Carolina thought they were drafting. We just need Young’s play to improve for McMillan to pay off in fantasy. The volume will be there, but McMillan has a tough test this week, lining up against Will Johnson (57.1% catch rate and 68.8 passer rating allowed) and Max Melton (50% catch rate and 68.8 passer rating allowed) all day. In Week 1, Arizona allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Ricky Pearsall picked up in Week 1 right where he left off last season as the WR20 in weekly (PPR) scoring. He had a 20% target share, a 54.3% air-yard share, 39% of the team’s receiving yards, 3.28 yards, a 26.1% first-read share, and 0.129 first downs per route run. He had two red zone targets in Week 1. Pearsall should have another productive day matching up with Kool-Aid McKinstry (66.7% catch rate and 135.4 passer rating allowed) and Isaac Yiadom (80% catch rate and 96.7 passer rating allowed) all day. In Week 1, New Orleans allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, D.J. Moore could have had a bigger day if Caleb Williams hadn’t airmailed him when he was wide open, but he finished with five receptions and 68 scoreless receiving yards. He had a 14.3% target share, a 37.4% air-yard share, 1.94 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share. Moore was third on the team in first-read share behind Rome Odunze and Olamide Zaccheaus. His 0.125 separation score backed up the fact that his lack of boxscore production wasn’t necessarily his fault. Moore will do battle with a secondary that allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers in Week 1.
A.J. Brown wasn’t the only Philly wide receiver to have a down Week 1. DeVonta Smith walked away from the game with only a 13% target share and 13 receiving yards (0.50 yards per route run). I feel better about Smith’s outlook in Week 2 than Brown’s. Smith still commanded a 30% first-read share and posted a 9.4% route win rate against Dallas. His route win rate isn’t great, but it’s better than logging zero route wins in Week 1 like Brown. The interesting piece of Smith’s usage in Week 1 was his 69% slot rate. That also helps his Week 2 outlook as Kansas City has struggled to defend the slot over the last two seasons. In 2024, the Chiefs allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to the slot, and in Week 1 of this season, they gave up the eighth-most PPR points per target. Fire Smith up again in Week 2.
The Dolphins were getting their butts kicked so badly in Week 1 that they pulled their starters during the fourth quarter, so it muddied their usage metrics. In the first three quarters of Week 1, Hill had a 76.2% route share, a 27.8% target share, a 48.2% air-yard share, 2.50 yards per route run, and a 30.8% first-read share. We’ll see if he can have better luck in Week 2 than his WR53 finish. His underlying metrics were strong, so I believe if Tua Tagovailoa can play better, Hill is in for a strong day. In Week 1, New England utilized single high at the highest rate in the NFL (74.4%). Last year, with Tagovailoa under center, Hill remained excellent against single high with a 34% target per route run rate, 2.72 yards per route run, and 0.168 first downs per route run. In Week 1, New England ranked 17th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
I talked about it in last week’s Primer, but Week 1 wasn’t the week to be bullish for George Pickens‘ outlook. Well, we have made it to Week 2, and it should be wheels up for Pickens. Last week, Pickens had only an 11.8% target share with 30 receiving yards (0.94 yards per route run) with a 19.4% air-yard share, and a 13.6% first-read share. Those numbers should all come up against the Giants. Last week, the Giants continued their trend of single high heavy defense (eighth-highest rate, 64.9%). Last year, against single high, Pickens had a 32% target per route run, 3.25 yards per route run, and 0.137 first downs per route run. He should cook this week. Last week, New York allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Hollywood Brown looks ticketed for a high-volume role until Xavier Worthy and/or Rashee Rice return. In Week 1, he had a 35.9% target share, a 36.4% air-yard share, 2.25 yards per route run, and a 40% first-read share. He was the WR9 in fantasy last week. Yes, a large chunk of his receiving yardage came on a play where the coverage was blown, allowing Brown to be wide open for a big gain. That is absolutely true, but we still can’t run away from this type of volume for any receiver. Brown is tied for the league lead in red zone targets (three). In the second half of Week 1’s game, Brown’s slot usage increased to 64%, so I think he’ll be the primary slot option again this week for Mahomes. That means Brown will have to duel with Cooper DeJean (33% catch rate and 42.4 passer rating allowed). Last year, Philly allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Brown will get plenty of opportunities this week to overcome a bad matchup.
Well, Travis Hunter is a full-time wide receiver. We debated this all offseason, but now we have seen it. In Week 1, he had a 75.8% route share with a 25.8% target share, a 28% first-read share, and a 37.5% designed target rate. The results weren’t what we wanted, with only 33 receiving yards and 1.32 yards per route run, but the usage was quite encouraging. His per-route metrics also paint a less-than-rosy picture as he had a -0.040 separation score and didn’t record a route win in Week 1. Hunter was a player that I talked about all offseason who needed to continue to improve his route running if he was going to separate at a high level against NFL competition. His 76% slot usage in Week 1 and heavy slot and designed target usage moving forward should allow him to “grow on the job” this season while being productive for fantasy purposes. He should have a more productive Week 2 against a secondary that in Week 1 allowed the sixth-most fantasy points and the fifth-most receiving yards to the slot. In Week 1, Dax Hill allowed five of his six targets defended to be secured with an 84.0 passer rating. The biggest concern for Hunter this week is the team stating that he’ll play more defense this week which could impact his ceiling and floor.
Rome Odunze was Chicago’s clear WR1 in Week 1 with a WR19 finish in fantasy. He had a 22.9% target share (led the team), 24% air-yard share, 37 receiving yards (0.93 yards per route run), an endzone target, and a 27.8% first-read share. He posted strong scores with a 0.162 separation score and an 18.9% route win rate. If Caleb Williams can deliver catchable targets in Week 2, Odunze could have a strong day. Detroit allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers in Week 1.
Last week wasn’t the start to the season that anyone rostering Jameson Williams wanted to see. He had only a 12.8% target share, 15.6% air-yard share (4.8 aDOT), 23 receiving yards (0.55 yards per route run), and a 9.5% first-read share. He wasn’t getting open with only a 2.4% route win rate against Green Bay. Hopefully, this week leads to better results, but that also depends on who is starting on the perimeter for Chicago this week. Jyalon Johnson might be back this week. I’ll update Jameson Williams‘ outlook once we get a better read on who will be available this week for the Bears defense.
Calvin Ridley walked away from Week 1 with the results I pretty much expected. He got shut down by Patrick Surtain II in shadow coverage. Surtain II followed him on 87.1% of his routes, limiting him to three receptions (six targets) and 26 receiving yards. Ridley’s market share metrics are still a positive takeaway despite the poor results. He had a 28.6% target share and 26.3% first-read share. Ridley will be Cam Ward‘s clear number one target this season, and he’ll have better fantasy days. Ridley should have a better day in Week 2, but the Rams also are no pushover secondary. In Week, they allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Akhello Witherspoon (only five receiving yards allowed and a 70.1 passer rating) and, surprisingly, Emmanuel Forbes were quite strong. We’ll see if Forbes can continue this level of play.
Keenan Allen proved he still has it in Week 1 as the WR10 in fantasy. Among 77 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 23rd in separation and tenth in route win rate. He had a 26.5% target share, 2.13 yards per route run, and a 28% first-read share (tied with Ladd McConkey for the team lead). He had one end zone target. Allen should post another nice stat line in Week 2 against a secondary that allowed the eighth-most fantasy points and ninth-most receiving yards to wide receivers in Week 1.
Keon Coleman had a monster Week 1 as the WR2 in fantasy football. He tied for the team lead in red zone targets (two) with Khalil Shakir and Josh Palmer. Coleman had a 23.9% target share, 33.7% air-yard share, 2.60 yards per route run, 34.6% first-read share, and 0.140 first downs per route run. Last week, Buffalo faced the fourth-most man coverage (40.4%), and they will see plenty of it again this week. Last week, the Jets had the second-highest man coverage rate in the NFL (50%). Last week, against man coverage, Coleman had a 30% target share and an insane 38.5% first-read share. Coleman will likely see shadow coverage from Sauce Gardner this week, who followed D.K. Metcalf on 89% of his routes last week, allowing only one of his four targets to be secured for 11 receiving yards. Josh Allen will test Gardner, but I don’t know if this is a matchup that Coleman wins this week. If he can consistently, he will be headed for a big week, though.
Ok, I believe in Quentin Johnston‘s monster performance in Week 1. The Bolts are utilizing him the way that he should have always been used. He’s running a ton of crossing routes and being asked to run away from defenders. His route running has also tightened up from previous seasons, as he was sharp with some stop routes. Johnston earned a 20.6% target share, 31.7% air-yard share, and a 24% first-read share in Week 1 with 2.19 yards per route run and two end zone targets. He was the WR3 for the week with 79 receiving yards and two scores. Among 77 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 15th in separation and sixth in route win rate. In Week 1, the Raiders allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. Johnston will line up against Kyu Blu Kelly (75% catch rate and 99.5 passer rating allowed) and Eric Stokes (71.4% catch rate and 87.2 passer rating allowed) the entire game.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
Last week, Pittman Jr. was the WR8 in fantasy, soaking up a 27.6% target share and 30% first-read share from Daniel Jones. He produced 2.86 yards per route run (80 receiving yards) and 0.143 first downs per route run. Pittman Jr. will have a tough time this week as shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain is incoming. Last week, Patrick Surtain followed Calvin Ridley on 87.1% of his routes. Cam Ward only targeted Ridley once (zero receptions) with Surtain draped all over him. Pittman Jr. will have a down game in Week 2. Sit him.
While D.K. Metcalf was dealing with Sauce Gardner all day, Calvin Austin was taking advantage of softer matchups against Michael Carter and Brandon Stephens. Austin finished as the WR16 in fantasy for the week. He had a 20% target share, a 71.1% air-yard share (14.3 aDOT), 2.80 yards per route run, and a 24% first-read share. Austin will spend about half of his routes in the slot against Devon Witherspoon (2024: 71.6% catch rate and 100.3 passer rating allowed). When he’s outside, the matchups don’t get any easier against Josh Jobe (20% catch rate and 0.0 passer rating allowed) and Tariq Woolen (75% catch rate and 156.3 passer rating allowed). Last year, Seattle allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. I don’t want to play Austin this week unless I’m out of other options.
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