Week 2 is a unique week during the NFL season and in the NFL DFS realm. Week 1 was a critical data point for player usage and team tendencies. However, some gamers will immediately overreact to the results from last week. At the same time, others will underreact to the data provided in Week 1. This week’s DFS analysis aims to strike a balance between underreacting to and overreacting to last week’s events.
Interestingly, the first suggested game stack features a team that underachieved in Week 1, while the second includes two squads that had explosive performances. The suggested players among the studs, values and punts also include a mix of stellar performers in Week 1 and players who should have better showings this week.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 2
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Bengals vs. Jaguars
Spread/Total: CIN -3.5/49.0 Points
According to nfelo, the Bengals were second in pass rate over expectations (PROE) in 2022 and 2023, and they were first in 2024 (8.2% PROE). Interestingly, they had a -0.2% PROE in Week 1, but they likely didn’t expect old-man Joe Flacco to push them, and their offensive line didn’t have answers for Cleveland’s defensive line, namely Myles Garrett. Joe Burrow is the engine for Cincinnati’s offense, and the passing game funnels through Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Burrow, Chase and Higgins are DFS lineup optimizer darlings. Burrow is projected as the QB4 at DraftKings and FanDuel this week. Chase is projected as the WR1 at both DFS outlets, and Higgins is projected as the WR9 at DraftKings and the WR10 at FanDuel.
Circling back to the top-down view of Cincinnati’s offense, per RotoViz’s pace app, the Bengals have had the highest situation-neutral pass rate (65%) and were tied for the fifth-most situation-neutral plays per 60 minutes (63) since Week 1 of last year. Burrow led the NFL in passing yards per game (289.3) and touchdown passes (43) last season. While he has a track record of getting off to slow starts, he played well in the preseason, and Garrett and the Browns are a familiar foe that presents Cincinnati’s offense problems that the Jaguars likely won’t this week. Chase had a triple-crown season last year, leading the NFL in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708) and receiving touchdowns (17). Moreover, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Chase was second among wideouts in DraftKings and FanDuel expected points per game. He’s in a bounce-back spot. I’ll delve into Higgins below, as he’s featured among the core studs.
Per Pro Football Reference, Cincinnati’s defense was tied for the third-most plays faced (71) and tied for the 11th-lowest pressure rate (18.8%) in Week 1. Their inability to generate pressure bodes well for Trevor Lawrence and his top pass-catchers, headlined by Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter. Brenton Strange is also a nifty value option in this contest. The Bengals permitted the 12th-most passing yards per game (223.5) and the fourth-most passing touchdowns (30) last season, and it’s unlikely they’ve patched up everything by switching defensive coordinators and making a few personnel changes.
BTJ and Hunter are Jacksonville’s top pass-catching weapons. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, BTJ led the team in route participation (87.9%) and air yards share (38.4%), and Hunter had a 75.8% route participation and the highest target share (25.8%) on the team. Meanwhile, Strange had a rock-solid 60.6% route participation rate, 0.20 targets per route run and 2.95 yards per route run (Y/RR). Gamers can double-stack T-Law with two of his pass-catching weapons in GPPs as a pivot from a Burrow double stack.
Still, my favorite variation of stacking this game is a Burrow double-stack with Chase and Higgins, and a bring back of Travis Etienne or Etienne and one of the highlighted pass-catchers.
Etienne had the following stats in Week 1.
- 16 attempts
- 143 rushing yards
- 8.94 yards per carry
- 3.63 yards before contact per attempt
- 5.31 yards after contact per attempt
- Three missed tackles forced (0.19 MTF/Att)
- 12.5% explosive run rate
- 45.5% route participation
- 9.7% target share
- 0.20 targets per route run
- Three receptions
- 13 receiving yards
- One missed tackle forced
Etienne was explosive and headlined the backfield. The Jaguars also streamlined their backfield by trading Tank Bigsby to the Eagles earlier this week. The Panthers will make many running backs look better than they are, but the Bengals aren’t the stiffest test for him this week. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bengals coughed up the 14th-most DraftKings points per game (23.1), the 14th-most FanDuel points per game (20.0), 89.9 rushing yards per game, 0.94 rushing touchdowns per game, 4.41 receptions per game, 31.2 receiving yards per game and 0.06 receiving touchdowns per game to running backs in 2024. Etienne is the cheapest running back I’m willing to use at both DFS outlets this week, and he’s also one of my highest-rostered players across both providers.
Game: Jets vs. Bills
Spread/Total: BUF -6.5/46.5 Points
The Jets’ offensive outburst last week was one of the most shocking developments in Week 1. What wasn’t surprising was their recipe for offensive success. Gang Green’s -18.8% PROE in Week 1 was the lowest in the NFL. To add perspective to that number, Philadelphia’s -8.8% PROE in 2024 was the lowest.
Justin Fields‘ special sauce is his athleticism and ability to run. He ran for 48 yards and two rushing touchdowns against the Steelers in Week 1. Yet, he also completed 16 of 22 passes for 218 yards and a touchdown. The Bills struggled mightily with Lamar Jackson‘s mobility in Week 1, permitting 70 yards and a score to him on the ground. Fields isn’t the same caliber of passer as Jackson, but he could pose some of the same problems for their defense and deliver a DFS-usage-worthy week.
Breece Hall was New York’s most productive and their most heavily utilized running back in Week 1. He handled 19 of the backfield’s 27 rush attempts (70.4%), slicing up the Steelers for 107 rushing yards, 5.63 yards per carry and a blistering 15.8% explosive run rate. Hall also had two targets (0.29 targets per route run), two receptions and 38 receiving yards. It was an encouraging Week 1, and he’ll attempt to keep up the momentum against a defense that Derrick Henry ran roughshod for 169 yards and two touchdowns on 18 attempts against last week.
However, there’s more risk to using Hall than his surface stats would suggest. Hall is the second-best passing-game weapon for the Jets, but the coaching staff seemingly didn’t get the memo. He had just a 28.0% route participation in Week 1, and Isaiah Davis (16.0% route participation) and Braelon Allen (12.0% route participation) mixed in. Moreover, Hall and Allen split the team’s only two rush attempts inside the 10-yard line last week, and Allen punched his in for a touchdown, while Hall had only a scoreless yard. Hall’s performance in Week 1 might have earned him a larger share of the rushing and receiving work this week. At the same time, gamers must be aware of the backfield split, and a negative game script could hurt Hall if he doesn’t run more routes, while Allen could poach short-yardage touchdowns.
A negative game script could be fantastic for Garrett Wilson. He’s the team’s only viable pass-catching weapon outside of Hall. New York’s No. 1 wideout paced the team in route participation (96.0%), air yards share (51.5%), target share (36.4%), receptions (seven) and receiving yards (95). He also hauled in a touchdown.
The Bills are the A-side of this AFC East matchup. Buffalo’s implied total (26.5 points) is tied for the second-highest on this week’s main slate. Josh Allen put on a clinic to close out a remarkable comeback victory last week, and he’s projected to be the highest scorer among all players at both DFS providers. I don’t need to dive into his excellent numbers. Still, I’ll note that he’s dunked on Aaron Glenn’s defense in two meetings against the Lions since 2021. Per StatHead, Allen had 75.2 DraftKings points and 72.2 FanDuel points in those contests.
Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, Dalton Kincaid and, to a lesser extent, because he’s also featured for his rushing contributions, James Cook being featured on the table speaks to Buffalo’s lack of a target-hog pass-catching weapon. The following table has the Week 1 receiving numbers for Shakir, Coleman, Palmer, Kincaid and Cook via the data suite at Fantasy Points.
Shakir didn’t have the biggest showing in Week 1, but he’s Allen’s most trustworthy weapon, should avoid Sauce Gardner in the slot and is probably the best stylistic option for this matchup. Aaron Rodgers dinked and dunked the ball to 244 passing yards at a tiny 3.3 air yards per attempt against the Jets in Week 1. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Allen had his two lowest aDOTs (8.6 yards in 2023 and 8.7 yards in 2024) in the previous two years, demonstrating a willingness to let his pass-catchers catch and run. Shakir is tailor-made for catching and running. Shakir’s 719 yards after the catch, including the postseason, were the second most in the NFL last season.
Coleman blew up in the fourth quarter last week, and his team-high first-read percentage was noteworthy. Palmer offers a discount from Shakir and Coleman, and he could take another step forward with more reps with Allen in the regular season. Finally, Kincaid is largely a touchdown-chasing contrarian pick in GPPs, as his route participation has left something to be desired.
Cook can amass fantasy points through the air against the Jets. Yet, he could also have a much more favorable game script for the 6.5-point favored Bills this week, allowing him to tote the rock more than the 13 times he did in Week 1. Cook’s 13 rush attempts in Week 1 were 81.3% of the backfield’s attempts. He’s a do-it-all, game-script-proof running back attached to a 6.5-point favorite with a robust implied total.
Core Studs
- Christian McCaffrey is projected as the RB1 with the RB1 value score at both DFS outlets. Despite last week’s hysteria about CMC’s calf “injury,” he had a robust 76% snap share. McCaffrey handled 22 of San Francisco’s backfield’s 31 rush attempts, accumulating a nice 69 yards against a stout defense. CMC also had a 71.8% route participation rate, 10 targets, nine receptions and 73 receiving yards. CMC is a dying-breed workhorse, and the Mac Jones-led 49ers will almost certainly force-feed CMC in Week 2.
- James Conner saved his Week 1 with a touchdown. Nevertheless, he didn’t live up to the expectations I expounded upon him last week as a suggested core stud. I’m going back to the well with Conner in the most drool-inducing matchup for a running back. The Panthers allowed an NFL-high 32.1 DraftKings points per game, 28.1 FanDuel points per game and 148.2 rushing yards per game to running backs in 2024. Carolina also coughed up 1.06 rushing touchdowns per game, 4.35 receptions per game, 35.6 receiving yards per game and 0.18 receiving touchdowns per game to the position last season. In Week 1, they permitted an NFL-high 173 rushing yards, four receptions and 17 receiving yards to running backs. Making matters worse for their pitiful run defense, pricey offseason signing Tershawn Wharton is expected to miss multiple weeks, removing a beefy defensive tackle from the mix. Conner should bounce back from an underwhelming showing to steamroll the Panthers.
- Chase won last year’s receiving triple crown, but Higgins had a high air yards share (36.0% versus 34.5%) and more end-zone targets (15 compared to 13) than Chase in the 12 games they played together. Higgins’ 17.7 expected fantasy points per game weren’t a far cry from Chase’s 19.4 in those contests. I love both wideouts, but the gap in Chase’s and Higgins’ salaries is too large.
Value Plays/Punts
- Drake Maye has the QB1 value score at DraftKings and the QB2 value score at FanDuel this week. Daniel Jones just dunked on the Dolphins last week, and Maye is the next person up. Maye didn’t play a flawless game in Week 1. Nevertheless, his 287 passing yards last week were the most in a game in his career. Maye also has more rushing upside than his 11 yards last week suggest. PFF’s John Kosko ranked Miami’s secondary 29th in the NFL entering the season. Thus, their comical showing in Week 1 against Danny Dimes might not prove to be a blip on the radar. Maye is an excellent QB selection at both platforms in all game types.
- Kayshon Boutte is Maye’s top weapon. He flashed some vertical ability last year and had an eye-catching showing in Week 1. Boutte topped the Patriots in route participation (75.5%), air yards (138), air yards share (38.8%), first-read rate (23.3%), receiving yards (103) and yards per route run (2.58 Y/RR). He was also tied for first on the team in target share (17.4%) and receptions (six). Boutte can build on last week’s showing in a Charmin-soft matchup against Miami’s pathetic secondary.
- Harold Fannin burst on the scene in his professional debut and has the TE1 value score for Week 2 at DraftKings. Among 49 tight ends with at least 10 routes in Week 1, Fannin was tied for eighth in target share (20.0%), seventh in targets per route run (0.31), sixth in air yards share (24.9%), tied for second in receptions (seven), sixth in receiving yards (63), sixth in yards per route run (2.17) and sixth in expected fantasy points per route run (0.55). Kevin Stefanski moved Fannin all over the formation and utilized him as a focal point of the offense. Fannin’s usage in Week 1 was too good for gamers to ignore him at a punt salary in Week 2.
Week 2 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
De’Von Achane: 59.5 Rushing Yards – Lower
The Patriots bottled up Ashton Jeanty, holding him to 38 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Zamir White added just eight rushing yards on three attempts. In all, Las Vegas’ running backs rushed for the seventh-fewest rushing yards (46) in Week 1. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane had only 55 rushing yards, albeit on just seven rush attempts. However, the seven rush attempts are also an indictment against Achane’s rushing outlook. Miami’s offensive line may struggle mightily this week due to injuries and ineptitude. Guard James Daniels was placed on injured reserve after getting hurt in only three plays last week, and the team doesn’t expect to have right tackle Austin Jackson this week. Achane has rushed for fewer than 59.5 rushing yards in 11 of his previous 18 games, and I expect the Patriots to hold him under that mark this week.
James Conner: 63.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Cardinals have had a 44% situation-neutral rush rate since last year. That mark surged to 50% when tied or leading, excluding the final two minutes of the first half. The Cardinals are 6.5-point favorites this week at home, setting the stage for Conner to eviscerate Carolina’s speed-bump run defense.
Khalil Shakir: 4.5 Receptions – Higher
According to PFF, Gardner played zero snaps in the slot last week. He’s also played only 48 snaps in the slot in 3,098 defensive snaps in his career. As a result, Shakir should avoid New York’s best corner. Buffalo’s slot wideout had an uncharacteristic 11.3-yard aDOT in Week 1. Shakir racked up 94 receptions (5.2 per game) at a 5.3-yard aDOT in 18 games in 2024. He should be busy against the Jets and clear 4.5 receptions this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
