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Players to Buy
Baker Mayfield completed 15 of 24 passes for 152 yards without a touchdown or interception, managing the offense efficiently but without much explosiveness through the air. His leading target was Emeka Egbuka, who drew a team-high nine targets, catching three passes for 35 yards. Down game for the rookie but the usage was solid again for a second straight game.
58% air yards share and a 38% target share (67 incomplete air yards) to go with two more end-zone targets.
It’s ironic that finally Egbuka is getting alpha usage but the production has been lackluster. When to start the year he was overproducing based on a sub-par role.
Either way…you want to go aggressively after Egbuka on his bye week. 10-plus targets per game over the last two weeks. Four end zone targets. Over 180 incomplete air yards.
Remember…Egbuka hurt his hamstring two weeks ago and almost didn’t play versus the Lions. After they bye week he should be closer to full go.
Managers with a strong record should be looking to buy Buccaneers on the injury discount.
Weeks 16-17: Panthers/Dolphins. ROS? Top-10 schedule for WRs, RBs, and QBs.
London has averaged 12 targets, 7.3 receptions, and 103 yards per game when healthy, cementing himself as Atlanta’s clear alpha. The Falcons’ passing game should rebound once Michael Penix Jr. returns, and their rest-of-season schedule is among the league’s easiest for quarterbacks. London’s recent hip injury , the Falcons’ dud performance against Miami and tough matchup versus NE in Week 9 create a perfect buy-low window. With a decent playoff run (TB, ARI, LAR), he’s positioned for a strong finish.
Jauan Jennings is not a surefire long-term bet to stay healthy, given all the injuries he is playing through.
His injuries seemed to hamper his production. Given he caught just one pass for 7 yards on three targets in Week 6, followed up by 4-31 on 7 targets in Week 7 (27% target share).
But in Week 8 it was again another team-high 7 targets going 4 for 45 (79 incomplete air yards, 22% target share). Targets have been there, the production has not. Jennings had a bad bad drop on a deep ball from Mac Jones that would have likely resulted in a long TD.
Presuming he is getting healthier with Brock Purdy returning…Jennings might be the sneaky-buy candidate here. In the last 2 games he is the WR target leader for the 49ers (14 targets (25% target share) and 36% air yards share.
He has a real connection with Purdy, and maybe another week passing has improved his health. He’s “due” to produce ranking 7th in XPPG scored under expectation.
If Ricky Pearsall starts practicing this week, it’s possible he could return this week. He’s another buy among this 49ers WR room. PFF’s 17th-highest graded WR in four games played.
Brandon Aiyuk is also eyeing a Week 10 return. The 49ers also suffered more defensive injuries. They can’t catch a break. But combine their bad defense with a good schedule…and this is a recipe for fantasy success on offense.
The rookie dominated again with 10 targets and 7-99 receiving, accounting for 42 % of team targets and 60 % of air yards. He showed out/still produced with Andy Dalton giving him an extremely high floor, and Carolina’s offense should improve once Bryce Young returns. McMillan ranks top-15 in expected points per game and still hasn’t hit his ceiling.
Lamb still earned 10 targets in a blowout loss, with three red-zone looks and multiple penalties wiping additional opportunities. He’s posted a 27 % target share across the last two weeks since returning from his injuries. With the Cowboys likely to rebound against Arizona this week, Lamb’s target floor/ceiling combination remains elite with Dallas constantly playing in shootouts. Take advantage of any frustration from his manager that might not be able to stomach a Week 10 bye week for Dallas.
Without Tyreek Hill, Waddle has averaged 7 targets and 78 yards per game, including 99 yards and a TD in Week 8. His route share and air-yard dominance (73 %) underline a WR1 profile when healthy. Miami’s offense plays six of its final nine at home, boosting efficiency and odds that Mike McDaniel can at least finish the season as the HC before a potential firing. With public concern about Tua Tagovailoa‘s status, this is a classic buy window on an elite talent.
DK Metcalf served as Aaron Rodgers‘ top red-zone weapon, drawing two red-zone targets and finishing with five receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown on seven targets — a 20% target share — though two additional targets were negated by penalties. However he was used closer to the LOS – averaging 9 air yards per target (although he did have 39 incomplete air yards). I listed DK Metcalf as a sell before the bye week. Right after the bye, I was eating the L. But he did have a slight down game versus the Bengals with the Steelers TEs feasting. But Week 8 he was back in business.
Versus the Bengals, Metcalf went three for 50 on five targets with more deep targets. Two games following the bye week…Metcalf is averaging over 16 air yards per target. It was below 8.5 before the Week 5 bye week. But the air yards dipped back down in this game with Calvin Austin/Roman Wilson filling that air yards void.
Even so…Metcalf’s usage is trending in the right direction for his ROS outlook. The fact that he is only competing with mainly TEs and beta WRs for targets ensures his target share should stay high. Metcalf is playing extremely well – PFF’s 20th-highest graded WR – and the schedule is awesome from here on out. I might have gone full 180….going from selling, to holding, to now buying Metcalf. He’s already had his bye week and seems destined to be a fantasy WR2 at worst ROS, even if he doesn’t score a TD every single week (even though it seems like it happens every week).
However I think you can wait…given his price might get cheaper if the Steelers trade for a WR before the November 4th deadline.
Steelers ROS schedule is GREAT for WRs…and No.1 in the fantasy playoffs: Dolphins, Lions, and Browns.
Players to Sell
Jordan Addison provided one of the few bright spots, catching three of four targets for 26 yards and a touchdown.
Both Vikings WRs this season rank 13th and 7th, respectively, in XFPPG The Vikings playmakers have performed at an extremely high level with Carson Wentz under center. Justin Jefferson has averaged nearly 100 receiving yards per game with Wentz as this QB.
But Minnesota’s not winning games because of Wentz…and J.J. McCarthy is coming back (Week 9). Wentz is not coming back at all…after he was placed on IR.
When buying/selling, it’s about believing in the player. Obviously, Jefferson is a top-5 real-life WR. So, if you can “buy” that player…I think it’s worth it. Even if the game splits suggest that Wentz is better for McCarthy…I think the QB that gives the Vikings the best chance to win…should ultimately help Jefferson in fantasy circles. McCarthy’s still a very small sample size…and I still want to believe in the Kevin O’Connell offense.
5th in the NFL in target share (29%). Third in air yards share (42%). 17th in PPG. He continues to get it done in this offense regardless of the QB (something he has always done).
Solid stretch of matchups as the fantasy playoffs come into play for the Vikings. Top-10 schedule rest of season for WRs and for QBs.
That being said, it would seem Addison, as the Vikings’ No. 2 WR, would take the biggest hit if there is any downgrade with J.J. McCarthy back under center.
I’d be more concerned about Addison – so he would be the one I’d look to flip after he scored on Thursday night. We have a zero game sample of McCarthy with Addison this season. Considering Addison is 10th in PPG (four games) this would logically be his cooling off part to his season. Jefferson is just 17th in PPG despite ranking 5th in receiving yards (only one TD).
Quentin Johnston, failed to draw a single target on Thursday Night, as his role has sharply diminished following Oronde Gadsden‘s emergence.
Once we finally felt safe to rank Johnston as a top-24 guy…he gets hurt and immediately loses all his targets to a Day 3 rookie tight end. I’m being tongue-and-cheek here, but this is a major red flag. With Gadsden emerging and Ladd McConkey reclaiming WR1 status…QJ is really tough to trust now and difficult for fantasy managers to deal with.
It’s now 2 games since his injury that his targets have tanked. It’s easy for me as a QJ offseason fader to just completely bury the guy…but I felt that the start of the year was really strong. Maybe he is still getting over the hamstring injury. I think that’s a legitimate concern. But selling him for nothing when he has shown upside as a top-5 weekly finisher should not be underrated.
The Chargers play Dallas in Week 16. Even if QJ rides your bench until Week 16…that one game alone could make him worth targeting.
That being said…he is still PFF’s 31st-lowest graded WR this season. The lowest among the top-3 Bolts WRs.
Through 8 weeks, the lowest No. 1 Chargers WR has finished is WR21 in half-PPR. And only twice in eight games has Herbert failed to get at least two of his pass-catchers to strong finishes (sometimes three).
- 2, 10, 25
- 17, 18
- 11, 23, (TE16)
- 7
- 21
- 6, (TE12)
- 6, (TE1)
- 4, (TE3)
Long story short – all these Chargers WRs/TEs have tremendously weekly upside. If somebody is undervaluing that week-winning potential. I’d take advantage.
Like we saw with QJ’s injury…just takes one guy to miss for the production floodgates to open for the other Chargers pass-catchers.
But if the volatile nature of QJ is too much – or he just can’t be dealt than I think you have to hold him. A very price-dependent player that should be traded a lot. I think there’s a price where QJ is useful, but he projects to be very boom-or-bust. When the Chargers get Omarion Hampton back they could lean on the ground game more. Also FWIW, the Chargers ROS for WRs in near the bottom of the league (playoffs withstanding of course).
Brown missed Week 8 and could return post-bye, but the Eagles’ passing volatility creates weekly boom-or-bust outcomes. With DeVonta Smith thriving and Saquon Barkley staring to heat up, target volume may normalize lower. His name still commands WR1 trade value despite the fact that Smith has been the more productive WR this season. Sell into that brand before Philadelphia leans heavier on the run.
After two strong weeks – you “could” get a ton for DeVonta Smith. A.J. Brown should return after the bye week (although hamstring injuries can be tricky). Or even trading AJB should still be on your radar. Eagles offense was fine on Sunday without jamming him targets.
And as I think about this situation more…shouldn’t Smith be valued over AJB?
This season, Smith is PFF’s 9th-highest graded WR. Brown is 23rd. Through 7 games they have nearly identical target shares. However Smith has been much more efficient. Has more yards/catches by a substantial margin. Smith is averaging 2.24 yards per route. Career high.
I always talk about No. 2 WRs being undervalued…and Smith feels like that guy because of AJB’s alpha-ness. But given the way AJB has carried him self this season, I think Smith might finish this season as the Eagles No. 1 WR. We have seen teams phase out alphas post bye weeks.
And don’t forget that Brown still needs to overcome this hamstring…which might be a contributing factor to his lack of efficiency in 2025.
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