The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Week 12 NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
The Jets announced Taylor as the starter on Monday, so we are getting excellent pricing this week in a fairly neutral matchup against Baltimore. The Ravens’ defense has improved in recent weeks, and we are not expecting extreme volume from Taylor. However, we are interested in Taylor for his rushing upside. Taylor started in Week 3 against Tampa Bay and had 48 yards on the ground and 200 through the air for two touchdowns. He does not offer an extremely high ceiling but has excellent projections for the pricing. There is no clear WR1 to stack with him, so you can play Taylor naked or potentially pair him with Mason Taylor at tight end as a value play.
The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Week 12 NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
The Jets announced Taylor as the starter on Monday, so we are getting excellent pricing this week in a fairly neutral matchup against Baltimore. The Ravens’ defense has improved in recent weeks, and we are not expecting extreme volume from Taylor. However, we are interested in Taylor for his rushing upside. Taylor started in Week 3 against Tampa Bay and had 48 yards on the ground and 200 through the air for two touchdowns. He does not offer an extremely high ceiling but has excellent projections for the pricing. There is no clear WR1 to stack with him, so you can play Taylor naked or potentially pair him with Mason Taylor at tight end as a value play.
We’re running it back with Brissett! He saw a modest bump in pricing and increased by $400 on DraftKings, but his value per pricing is still excellent. He’s a solid ceiling play again in Week 12 in a great matchup with Jacksonville. The Jags defense took advantage of an injured Chargers offensive line in Week 11, resulting in an incredibly underwhelming game from Justin Herbert. However, that game was likely an anomaly. The Jags have been a very fantasy-friendly matchup and have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including big performances to quarterbacks like Davis Mills and Geno Smith. Brissett will be a somewhat popular play this week due to his upside and pricing, but he’s still a viable option in GPP.
Drake Maye (QB – NE) @ CIN | DraftKings: $6,900/FanDuel: $8,400*
There are three games on the main slate with point totals expected at 49.5 or above – Colts/Chiefs, Giants/Lions and Patriots/Bengals. Those pieces will naturally garner significant ownership and we do want to play pieces from those games. Naturally, there are three quarterbacks from those games that are projected for the highest ownership – Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Drake Maye. Clarity in the Bengals’ starter this week could help shift some ownership, making Maye a bit more appealing in GPP. Maye has been solid over the past several weeks, but it has been a while since we have seen a ceiling game from him. His last top-three performance was in Week 8 against Cleveland. This week’s matchup against Cincinnati is the best he will face all season. Maye is the highest-priced quarterback on the slate this week but he also offers arguably the highest ceiling.
Additional Considerations
Running Backs
Taylor’s ownership will be minuscule this week because his pricing is outrageous. He is $1,500 more expensive than the next running back on DraftKings. When you combine the pricing with a terrible matchup against the Kansas City defense that has been excellent across the board and has allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, it is easy to see why Taylor is likely to have such low ownership. Playing Taylor will require some creativity, and he clearly needs to be paired with the lower-priced quarterbacks. However, if Jonathan Taylor has a Jonathan Taylor day, he would be an extreme contrarian play. Note his pricing separation on FanDuel is much smaller.
Gibbs will be a popular play this week, but for good reason. The Giants are one of the friendliest run defenses and allow the third most fantasy points to running backs. Gibbs is coming off a game where he struggled on the ground but thrived through the air in a tough matchup against Philadelphia. Gibbs is the third-highest-priced running back this week, and that should keep his ownership from being outrageous. Gibbs is a preferred GPP play because when he hits, it’s typically an extreme ceiling game, and this matchup profiles as an excellent bounce-back opportunity to get 100-plus yards on the ground.
This is the perfect week to deploy Etienne. He’s coming off an excellent performance with 19 carries for 73 yards and two touchdowns. However, he was not the only Jags’ running back who thrived in Week 11. Bhayshul Tuten had his best performance of the season, and his increased usage brings some skepticism around Etienne’s workload. Etienne is still the lead back in an excellent matchup against an Arizona defense that has struggled in general and allows the ninth most fantasy points to running backs. Despite having three straight top 15 performances, he is still priced under $6000 on DraftKings. He should have extremely low ownership and is a very interesting contrarian play in a game that should offer multiple goal line opportunities. Note that his receiving volume can be inconsistent, which does make him a slightly better play on FanDuel.
Henderson is an interesting contrarian play in GPP this week. He should garner low ownership with his increase in pricing as the sixth-highest priced running back on the slate, and with Drake Maye being a popular play this week. If Rhamondre Stevenson plays this week, that would potentially limit his upside as it is very possible Stevenson could retain goal line work when he returns. Monitor Stevenson’s status for Henderson’s viability this week. If Stevenson is inactive, given the matchup, we could be in line for another multi-touchdown game from Henderson.
Additional Considerations (injury contingent)
Wide Receivers
Tee Higgins (WR – CIN) vs. NE | DraftKings: $7,100/FanDuel: $7,500*
Higgins is pricey, but that pricing should ensure his ownership stays reasonable and does not inflate to an outrageous level with Higgins as the clear Bengals WR1 due to Ja’Marr Chase‘s suspension. The Bengals are a naturally high-volume team because of their defensive struggles. We will likely see New England pick apart Cincinnati’s defense, and regardless of who is at quarterback for the Bengals, there will be high volume, with the majority going to Higgins.
Iosivas is an excellent value play this week. He will step up as the clear WR2 with excellent pricing and moderate ownership. He has a history of stepping up when Chase or Higgins is out and has seen strong redzone usage in the past. He has had two solid games this season despite playing behind two superstars, including an excellent Week 9 performance where he had five receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown, finishing as WR13.
If we are running it back with Brissett, we have to run it back with Wilson. He got a price bump of $1,000 on DraftKings, but he is still below $5000 and offers extreme value, given his ceiling. Wilson is coming off a 15-reception/185-yard performance, finishing as the overall WR1, and he has a great opportunity to repeat a top performance in a great matchup against Jacksonville.
Williams is an excellent pivot off the Amon-Ra St. Brown chalk. The matchup against the Giants is one of the pass-friendliest in the league, and Williams is hot with three straight games with touchdowns and two straight top 10 performances with a minimum of 20 fantasy points in full PPR. With Sam LaPorta out, Williams offers a high ceiling with moderate pricing, making him one of the better mid-range receivers on the slate.
Chris Olave (WR – NO) vs. ATL | DraftKings: $6,400/FanDuel: $7,300*
Olave returns from a bye after his first performance with over 100 receiving yards against a pass-friendly Carolina defense. This week’s matchup of potentially better against Atlanta’s defense gave up a career day to Bryce Young in Week 11. If Tyler Shough can take advantage of the matchup, the clear beneficiary would be Olave. With the trade of Rashid Shaheed, Olave has a natural target funnel. While we have seen a decrease in pass volume with Shough at quarterback, the volume is enough to give Olave another top-10 performance.
Additional Considerations
Tight Ends
McBride is about as chalky as you will ever see at tight end, particularly for one who is priced well above most receivers. However, the pricing comes with good reason. The separation between McBride and the other tight ends is just too extreme. His volume has increased to an astronomical level with Brissett at quarterback, but the increase in touchdowns is what truly drives his upside. Since Brissett became the starter in Week 6, McBride has six touchdowns in five games. He is pricey, but his ceiling is tough to pass up.
Because McBride will garner such high ownership any pivot to another tight end will be naturally different. Johnson stands out for the exact reasons mentioned with Olave. Shaheed’s trade pushed Johnson to the second look for Shough. He also has two touchdowns in Shough’s two starts. He offers a reliable floor combined with a solid ceiling at very reasonable pricing.
Additional Considerations
D/ST
Cleveland Browns D/ST @ Las Vegas Raiders | DraftKings: $2,900/FanDuel: $4,400
There are a few solid value plays on defense this week, but the Browns stand out as a team that could exceed their projected ceiling. Defenses like Green Bay and Seattle are priced fairly high and offer the highest ceilings this week due to matchups with turnover-prone quarterbacks. However, the Browns face potentially the most turnover-prone quarterback in the league in Geno Smith, yet still offer a sub-$3K pricing on DraftKings. Smith has 13 interceptions on the season, and the Raiders’ offensive line has struggled significantly. Myles Garrett will have a field day.
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