Top 5 Fantasy Football Takeaways: Surprises & Disappointments

An essentially healthy offense and an unhealthy defense had a fantasy-friendly contest on Sunday. Additionally, a rookie wide receiver and a veteran tight end had eye-catching showings in Week 11. Finally, the AFC West will be well represented in this week’s disappointments.

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Top 5 Fantasy Football Takeaways

Let’s dive into the biggest takeaways from Week 11.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Surprises

The 49ers are a Fantasy Football Carnival

The 49ers smashed the Cardinals, beating them 41-22. They led 25-10 at the half, and they extended the lead to 35-10 by the end of the third quarter. San Francisco doesn’t have Brandon Aiyuk in the fold yet. However, Brock Purdy started for the first time since Week 4, and Ricky Pearsall also played for the first time since Week 4. Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle were also healthy and the stars for the 49ers. Jauan Jennings also chipped in. It was the first time all of them had played together since Week 1.

Since then, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner suffered season-ending injuries, among other injuries, on the defensive side of the ball. Jacoby Brissett set an NFL record for completions (47) on 57 attempts against the 49ers on Sunday, tallying 452 passing yards and two touchdowns. Michael Wilson had a career day, barbecuing the 49ers for 15 receptions and 185 receiving yards on 18 targets. Trey McBride had another outstanding showing, and even Greg Dortch amassed six receptions for 66 receiving yards and a touchdown on six targets.

While McCaffrey and Kittle were San Francisco’s top fantasy performers this week and are weekly threats to top their positions in scoring, Pearsall will have better days than one reception for zero yards on three targets. Jennings can exceed his four receptions for 54 scoreless yards on six targets against the Cardinals, if San Francisco’s opponents push them harder. Purdy is the primary beneficiary of all the weapons, and he’s in the QB1 mix.

Veteran fantasy football scribe Scott Pianowski from Yahoo! Sports was the first person I saw use the term “carnival” to describe a fantasy-friendly team. A carnival team has the firepower to light up the scoreboard and the defensive shortcomings to force the offense to keep its foot mashed down on the accelerator.

Last year’s Bengals and Lions are perfect examples of fantasy carnivals, and this year’s Bengals have been so at times with Joe Flacco starting, too. Yet, the 49ers are also a perfect example of a carnival team, and gamers in need of streaming help should consider players from San Francisco. And, of course, San Francisco’s offensive players get a ceiling boost, albeit with the risk of a dud because of the depth of the weaponry and the competition for touches.

The Panthers Have a Reliable Top Pass-Catching Weapon

Tetairoa McMillan has played well in his rookie season, with the caveat of grading on a curve, with Bryce Young clearing 200 passing yards only once this year before erupting for 448 passing yards and three passing touchdowns against the Falcons. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, McMillan recorded the following stats entering Sunday:

• 90.4% route participation rate
• 11.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
• 43.6% air yards share
• 24.5% target share
• 0.24 target per route run (TPRR)
• 30.1% first-read rate
• 46 receptions (4.6 per game)
• 618 receiving yards (61.8 per game)
• 1.99 yards per route run (YPRR)
• 2 touchdowns
• 7 end-zone targets
• 7.4 half-PPR points per game
• 13.9 expected half-PPR points per game

McMillan’s expected fantasy scoring indicated better days were likely ahead if Young could elevate his play even slightly. Young erupted in Week 11. McMillan had 12 targets, eight receptions, 130 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. Gamers should treat McMillan as a top-24 wide receiver.

Baltimore’s Veteran Tight End Demonstrated That an Old Dog Can Learn New Tricks

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Mark Andrews has aligned at quarterback eight times this year, doing so once in Week 2, three times in Week 6, twice in Week 9, once in Week 10 and once in Week 11. He’d been used on six rush attempts for eight yards before Week 11, serving as Baltimore’s tush-push option.

The Ravens unveiled a tush push wrinkle, having Andrews keep the ball and rush to the right, resulting in a dazzling 35-yard touchdown run that was ultimately the game-winning score. He also had five targets, three receptions and 32 receiving yards.

Andrews is likely to accrue most of his fantasy value through the air. Nevertheless, Andrews’ rushing ability provides him with a potential path to a goal-line touchdown. Moreover, Todd Monken’s willingness to pull out that wrinkle could be just the first swerve to keep defenses honest, with perhaps a passing alternative also up his sleeve. Andrews should be treated as a top-12 tight end.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Disappointments

Kansas City’s Savior Had a Dud

Many smart pundits in the industry hyped Rashee Rice‘s fantasy value to the moon, declaring him a potential league winner for those who stashed or traded for him before he returned from his six-game suspension. He was the WR1 in half-PPR points per game (19.1) through Week 10. However, Rice did the bulk of his damage against the lowly Raiders and Commanders before a more modest but still solid 16.6 half-PPR points against the Bills in Week 9.

Rice had a stinker out of Kansas City’s Week 10 bye, recording only 6.8 half-PPR points against Denver’s Patrick Surtain-less secondary. Rice entered Week 11 with a relatively shallow 6.3-yard aDOT but made up for it by getting spammed with targets by Patrick Mahomes.

Rice had nine targets against the Broncos. However, he converted them into an uninspiring six receptions for 38 yards. If defenses can prevent Rice from piling up yards after the catch, or they don’t respect Kansas City’s ability to stretch the field, Rice could find the sledding tough. Gamers should treat Rice as a WR1 in fantasy, but if he can be sold as a high-end WR1, that might be a wise move since he’s not a genuine do-it-all wideout.

The Chargers Stunk Up the Joint

The Chargers made the cross-country trip to play in the 1:00 p.m. ET window against the Jaguars. The travel and time difference are meaningful factors. However, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Jaguars were tied for the ninth-most yards per play allowed (5.6) and tied for the fewest sacks (12) before Sunday’s contest.

The Jaguars were a favorable matchup for the Chargers, and Los Angeles was blown out 35-6. Justin Herbert completed only 10-of-18 passes for 81 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. He also took two sacks. Trey Lance completed 3-of-8 passes for 37 scoreless yards and took a sack in garbage time. The Jaguars recorded three sacks on Sunday after recording only 12 in their first nine games.

The Chargers couldn’t get anything going on the ground, either. Herbert led the team with 21 rushing yards, followed by Kimani Vidal‘s 13. According to PFF, Quentin Johnston and Oronde Gadsden were tied for a team-high 28 routes against the Jaguars, followed by Keenan Allen‘s 24 and Ladd McConkey‘s 21. Tre’ Harris also ran 17 routes.

Sadly, while it would be tempting to chalk Sunday’s effort as a blip on the radar, Herbert and the offense have played notably worse without Joe Alt, who is out for the year. Gadsden is still in the TE1 mix, and McConkey gets some grace for his three receptions for 13 scoreless yards on seven targets in Week 11 since he’d played so well recently.

Unfortunately, Johnston had his second bagel in the past four games, and Allen isn’t a mainstay on the field, with Harris rotating in. Both can be cut in 12-team or shallower leagues to ride hot hands and play matchups. Herbert can’t be treated as a locked-in top-12 fantasy quarterback, either.

The Chargers are on a bye in Week 12, and it’s unclear when Omarion Hampton will return. Vidal and Hampton are holds for those who have them, but it won’t be a comfortable feeling using either the first time Hampton is active.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.