The Primer: Week 15 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC -5.5, O/U 41.5
• Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Patrick Mahomes II
• Rashee Rice
• Travis Kelce

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

Kareem Hunt is a volume-based RB2 this week. Since Week 9, he has had a 70.5% snap rate while averaging 17.2 touches and 71.4 total yards. Hunt has only a 1.4% explosive run rate, an 11% missed tackle rate, and 2.17 yards after contact per attempt, but that hasn’t stopped Kansas City from running him out there as their lead back weekly. I don’t understand it, but at Week 15, I don’t expect it to change. The Chargers’ run defense continues to be a weak point of their defense. Since Week 10, the Bolts have allowed the 13th-highest rushing success rate, the second-highest missed tackle rate, the ninth-most yards before contact per attempt, and ranked 16th in stuff rate.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Justin Herbert played with his repaired hand last week as the QB17 in fantasy, with his surprising ten carries and 66 rushing yards, helping his fantasy value. I didn’t see that rushing volume coming. I did, however, see the Chargers skewing run-heavy as Herbert passed only 26 times, completing 46.2% of his passes with 139 yards and 5.3 yards per attempt. Herbert did have a 10.2 aDOT but only managed to sport a 57.7% catchable target rate. The Chargers’ passing attack should be downgraded for at least this week again. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game, the 11th-most yards per attempt, and the 13th-highest passer rating. I don’t think the Chargers will ramp up the volume through the air this week, but hopefully Herbert can see better efficiency numbers when he does chuck it.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Last week, Keenan Allen was third on the team with an 11.5% target share while ranking first on the team with a 23.1% first-read share. He turned that volume (three targets) into three receptions and 22 receiving yards. There’s nothing pretty about this passing attack right now. This week, Allen likely fights Oronde Gadsden for the second spot in the target pecking order in a run-first offense. Since Week 11, Kansas City has had the third-highest two-high rate (62.2%). Since Week 6, against two high, Allen has ranked second on the team with a 17.8% target share with 1.83 yards per route run and a 20% first-read share. Allen is a low-end flex this week that needs a touchdown to pay off. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Oronde Gadsden (TE)

Last week, in the Chargers’ run-first offense, Gadsden had a 15.4% target share with a 7.7% first-read share. He turned his four targets into only one reception for seven yards. The lack of passing volume in this offense makes Gadsden a tough player to trust in any format. Since Week 11, Kansas City has had the third-highest two-high rate (62.2%). Since Week 6, against two high, Gadsden has ranked second on the team with a 17.8% target share with 2.08 yards per route run (leads the team) and a 20% first-read share. Gadsden is in the streaming/low-end TE1 area code this week, and that’s probably a rosier outlook than he deserves, but the matchup is nice. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards, the sixth-most yards per target, and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Kimani Vidal (RB)

Last week, Kimani Vidal retained his lead back role with a 69% snap share, a 56.1% route share, and an 11.5% target share. He finished with 15 touches and 104 total yards. He only saw one red zone rushing attempt while Omarion Hampton had five. I expect Hampton’s snap count to rise this week, so Vidal is a regulated to middling flex territory with a poor matchup. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Omarion Hampton (RB)

In his first game back, Hampton had a 31% snap rate, seeing 15 touches on 22 snaps and finishing with 67 total yards and a score. Hampton had a 17.1% route share and 7.7% target share while being the goal-line back with five red-zone rushing attempts. Hampton will likely see his role grow this week, and it’ll be a more even split with Kimani Vidal. That still only makes Hampton an RB2/3 with a bad matchup. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

Last week, Ladd McConkey led the team with a 19.2% target share, which amounted to only five targets that he turned into one reception and 12 receiving yards. The entire Bolts’ passing attack has to be downgraded with the passing volume in question. This week, he’ll lead the way again versus Kansas City’s two-high coverage. Since Week 11, Kansas City has had the third-highest two-high rate (62.2%). Since Week 6, against two high, McConkey has had a 24% target share with 1.19 yards per route run and a 24% first-read share (leads the team). McConkey’s dip in efficiency versus two high is concerning, especially when you also consider that Kansas City has been good against slot receivers. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to the position. If you have to play him this week, I get it, but don’t expect a massive stat line.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Since Rashee Rice‘s return, Worthy hasn’t finished higher than WR28 in any week, and he has only two top 36 weekly finishes (WR28, WR33). Since Week 7, he has had a 15.3% target share, 44.4 receiving yards per game, 1.36 yards per route run, and a 19.4% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had three red zone targets and seven deep targets. Sit Worthy this week. Since Week 10, the Bolts have held perimeter wide receivers to the tenth-fewest PPR points per target and the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game.

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

• BUF -1, O/U 49.5
• Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Drake Maye
• Josh Allen
• James Cook

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

TreVeyon Henderson (RB)

In the Patriots’ last game, we saw TreVeyon Henderson take a step back with Rhamondre Stevenson reclaiming his lead back role for the team. Henderson finished with 14 touches, 86 total yards, a 47.6% snap rate, a 41.7% route share, and a 12.9% target share. Henderson split the red zone work with Stevenson evenly as both backs had two red zone rushing attempts. It’s a coin flip for volume between the two this week which adds a layer of volatility when projecting Hendrson’s Week 15 outlook. I’ve been encouraged by Henderson’s efficiency marks since Week 9, though. Since Week 9, among 51 qualifying backs, Henderson has been 14th in explosive run rate and 24th in missed tackle rate. Those are huge leaps from where he began the season. Henderson should find running room this week against what’s still a weak Bills run defense. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most yards after contact per attempt.

Stefon Diggs (WR)

Since Week 12, Stefon Diggs has seen his usage dip again with a 53.3% route share, a 10.6% target share, and a 12.8% first-read share. Diggs may continue to see this limited usage coming out of the bye, but I expect his usage to increase in a massive game against his former employer. Overall, Diggs has a 64.4% route share, a 20.1% target share, 54.2 receiving yards per game, 2.30 yards per route run, and a 22% first-read share. Diggs is second on the team with 11 red zone targets and eight deep targets. This week, he faces a Bills’ secondary that has the third-highest two-high rate (57.2%). Against two high, Diggs has had a 22.8% target share, 2.04 yards per route run, and a 26.9% first-read share. With Christian Benford ruled out, Diggs’ floor and ceiling projection just got a bump for Week 15. The Bills haven’t been a good matchup for perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 10, they have given up the 13th-fewest PPR points per target to the position, but losing Benford is huge this week. I consider their pass defense to be middle-of-the-road without him against outside wide receivers this week. 

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

In New England’s last game, Stevenson reclaimed his lead-back role with a 60.3% snap rate, 15 touches, and 80 total yards. He split the red zone work with TreVeyon Henderson, with each player receiving two red zone rushing attempts. In Week 13, Stevenson also led the team with a 58.3% route share while kicking in a 9.7% target share. Among 57 qualifying backs this season, Stevenson ranks seventh in missed tackle rate and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see how the backfield shakes out this week, but Stevenson should remain an integral part of the offensive game plan as a strong flex play. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most yards after contact per attempt.

Kayshon Boutte (WR)

Kayshon Boutte has been a weekly flex option with a high ceiling, with five top 24 weekly finishes this season. That has been because of his downfield role and touchdown scoring prowess. Boutte has ten deep targets and six touchdowns despite only seeing two red zone targets this season. Boutte is in play again this week as a volatile but high upside flex play. Since Week 9, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-highest deep completion rate and the eighth-most deep passing yards per game.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Last week, Dalton Kincaid had only a 41.7% route share. Sure, he paid off for fantasy with a 17.9% target share, 41 receiving yards, 2.73 yards per route run, a touchdown, and a 27.8% first-read share, but that is a tough bet to make weekly. With that limited route share, Kincaid has to get peppered with targets and hopefully score a touchdown to pay off. He’s been a limited snap player all year, but a 50-60% route share is a different conversation from a player living in the 40s. Could he pay off again this week? It’s possible. New England has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Starting Kincaid this week depends upon your willingness to embrace risk and your options at tight end. I don’t think Kincaid’s knee and hamstring will be much healthier than they were last week, so he’s probably looking at a similar route share range in Week 15.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Across the last two games, Shakir has seen his route share dip to 52.4% with an 11.8% target share, 10.5 receiving yards per game, and a 16.1% first-read share. In those games, he has had two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Since Week 10, New England has allowed the 14th-fewest PPR points per target and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Shakir has been crushed by Buffalo’s insistence upon utilizing a passing game by committee approach. I can’t trust him in the opening week of the fantasy playoffs.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Hunter Henry is the TE12 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 weekly outings. Henry has a 17% target share with 46.9 receiving yards per game, 1.76 yards per route run, and a 19.3% first-read share. Henry leads the team with 16 red zone targets while also seeing six deep targets. This isn’t a week to plug Henry into the starting lineup. The Bills have been an elite team at covering tight ends for the last few seasons, and this one isn’t any different. Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

*Only Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir are remotely viable pieces of the Bills’ passing attack for fantasy. Last week. No one on the Bills’ roster had more than a 61.1% route share. Shakir and Kincaid clocked in at 52.8% and 41.7% which make them EXTREMELY volatile plays for Week 14, but no one else can be trusted this week.*

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT

New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• JAC -12.5, O/U 41.5
• New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Travis Etienne Jr.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Trevor Lawrence has been settling in nicely with Liam Coen’s offense. Since Week 9, Lawrence has been the QB9 in fantasy points per game. He has finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring in four of his last six games. Since Week 9, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence has ranked ninth in yards per attempt, 14th in highly accurate throw rate, 12th in catchable target rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. He could easily post another QB1 outing this week. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the ninth-highest success rate per dropback, the ninth-highest EPA per dropback, and the 12th-highest passer rating.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Since Week 11, Jakobi Meyers has been the Jags’ unquestioned WR1 with a 24.5% target share, 60.8 receiving yards per game, 2.29 yards per route run, and a 29.9% first-read share. In those four games, he has had six red zone targets and one deep target. He’s a strong WR2/3 again this week. Since Week 10, New York has ranked 16th in PPR points per target against perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Since Week 13, Brian Thomas Jr. has become the field-stretching component of the passing attack with a 21.8 aDOT, 15.5% target share, 57.5 receiving yards per game, 2.13 yards per route run, and a 22.5% first-read share. In these two games, 55.5% of his target volume has come via deep targets, while he has seen zero end zone or red zone targets. This isn’t a great matchup for downfield passing. Since Week 9, the Jets have allowed the 13th-lowest deep ball completion rate, the sixth-fewest deep passing yards per game, and ranked 16th in passer rating versus deep passing. Thomas Jr. is a volatile flex option. Since Week 10, New York has ranked 16th in PPR points per target against perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Brady Cook (QB)

Last week, Brady Cook looked like a rookie backup thrust into action, completing 46.7% of his passes with 5.4 yards per attempt, two interceptions, zero passing touchdowns, and a 23.3% off-target throw rate. Cook will start for the Jets this week with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields hurt. I don’t expect Cook to have more luck this week as a basement-level QB 2. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest CPOE. During that span, Jacksonville has also had the 11th-best pressure rate.

Breece Hall (RB)

Breece Hall is a volume-based RB2 in a rough spot this week. Hall is the RB18 in fantasy points per game with 17.8 touches and 91.3 total yards per game this season. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks seventh in explosive run rate and 19th in missed tackle rate. Hall could see 15-20 touches this week, but he might not sniff the endzone with Brady Cook directing the offense. The Jags have also not been kind to backs this season. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt.

Parker Washington (WR)

Parker Washington missed last week’s game with a hip injury. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Thursday before upgrading to a full session on Friday. He has been listed as questionable and could be back in uniform this week. In Weeks 11-12, with Jakobi Meyers playing a full-time role for Jacksonville, Washington finished as the WR66 and WR12 in weekly scoring, drawing a 17.3% target share with 45.5 receiving yards per game, 1.69 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. I expect Washington to move into a full-time slot role this week with Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers operating on the perimeter. In those two games, Washington had two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Washington is only a deep league flex play this week. Since Week 10, New York has held slot receivers to the third-fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-lowest passer rating when targeted.

Adonai Mitchell (WR)

Last week, with Brady Cook under center, Mitchell had a 14.2 aDOT with a 17.6% target share, 24 receiving yards, and a 14.8% first-read share. I don’t have much faith in Mitchell this week despite drawing a nice matchup on the perimeter. I don’t trust Cook to get the ball to Mitchell consistently. If you are forced to consider Mitchell as a flex play this week, I get it, but outside of pure desperation mode, I’m not playing Mitchell this week. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

John Metchie (WR)

Last week, with Brady Cook under center, John Metchie had a 23.5% target share, a team-leading 29.6% first-read share, and two red zone targets. Sadly, he turned that volume into only four receptions and 34 receiving yards. I can’t trust Metchie as a flex play this week with Cook slinging the rock despite the plus matchup. If you’re out of other flex options this week in a deep league, I get it, but there’s no way you can feel warm and cozy about playing him. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Brenton Strange (TE)

Just as everyone bought into Brenton Strange last week, he tosses a dud. Last week, in a wonderful matchup, he secured only three of his six targets for 27 scoreless receiving yards. Since Week 12, he has two TE1 weekly finishes (TE4, TE7) while drawing a 17% target share with 55 receiving yards per game, 2.39 yards per route run, and a 17.7% first-read share. In those three games, he has had three red zone targets and four deep targets. This isn’t the week to consider going back to Strange. Since Week 9, the Jets have allowed the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -11.5, O/U 38.5
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• A.J. Brown
• Brock Bowers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Ashton Jeanty is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.2 touches and 71.1 total yards. Since Week 9, his passing game usage has helped raise his weekly floor and ceiling with a 17.4% target share, 28.8 receiving yards per game, and 1.18 yards per route run. Among 57 qualifying backs, Jeanty ranks 14th in missed tackle rate and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Jeanty is a volume-based RB2 with a nice matchup this week. Since Week 10, Philly’s run defense has struggled, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest explosive run rate, and the 12th-most yards before contact per attempt.

DeVonta Smith (WR)

DeVonta Smith is the WR22 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 24.9% target share with 64.5 receiving yards per game, with 2.02 yards per route run, and a 30.9% first-read share. Smith has eight red zone targets this season and is tied for the team lead with 19 deep targets. This week, he faces a Raiders’ secondary that, since Week 9, has had the second-highest single high rate (62.1%). A.J. Brown has led the way for the Philly passing attack, but Smith has been involved heavily as well with a 23.2% target share, 1.93 yards per route run, and a 28.8% first-read share. Since Week 10, the Raiders have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Smith remains in the WR2/3 bucket for Week 15

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jack Bech (WR)

Last week, Jack Bech finally got involved in the Raiders’ offense with a 76.3% route share, a team-leading 18.8% target share, 50 receiving yards (led the team), 1.72 yards per route run, and a 23.5% first-read share. Bech had two red zone targets. He isn’t a sexy flex option, but in deeper leagues, you could do a lot worse. Since Week 10, Philly has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Bech could see heavy volume this week if the Raiders are in comeback mode for most of the game.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Kenny Pickett (QB)

Kenny Pickett will be the Raiders’ starter this week, with Geno Smith dealing with a shoulder injury. Pickett’s most substantial playing time came last week when he completed eight of 11 passes with 8.8 yards per attempt, 97 passing yards, and a touchdown. Pickett is a break glass in case of emergency Superflex option only at quarterback. The Eagles won’t be a pushover on defense. Since Week 10, Philly has allowed the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback, the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, and the sixth-lowest passer rating.

Dallas Goedert (TE)

After last week’s strong game, Dallas Goedert is the TE10 in fantasy points per game with an 18.1% target share, 40.1 receiving yards per game, 1.41 yards per route run, and a 19.8% first-read share. He has eight red zone targets and six deep targets. This isn’t the week to auto plug Goedert into your lineups. The Raiders have been tough against tight ends, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Consider other options at tight end this week.

Tre Tucker (WR)

Since Week 10, without Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker has had a 17.3% target share with 29.4 receiving yards per game, 0.78 yards per route run, and a 21.9% first-read share. In those five games, Tucker has had three red zone targets and nine deep targets. Tucker is a flex option best left on the bench. Since Week 10, Philly has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT