The Primer: Week 15 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Tennessee Titans vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -12.5, O/U 44.5
• Tennessee Titans vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Christian McCaffrey
• George Kittle

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Brock Purdy has one QB1 weekly finish this season, but he’ll add another one to that total this week. The Titans have been horrible at defending the pass, and I don’t see that changing this week. Among 44 qualifying passers, Purdy ranks 17th in yards per attempt, 14th in passing yards per game, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, and 24th in catchable target rate. I know none of that’s pretty, but Purdy should still crush this week. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the most passing yards per game, the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the sixth-most passing touchdowns (tied). Cook, Purdy. Cook.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Since Week 9, Jauan Jennings has been the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 21.2% target share, 49.2 receiving yards per game, 1.92 yards per route run, and a 30.7% first-read share. In those five games, he has had six red zone targets and four deep targets. He has been the clear WR2 in the offense even since Ricky Pearsall has been back in the lineup. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Jennings should smash again this week.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Last week, Tony Pollard reclaimed his lead back role with a 59.4% snap rate and 25 of the 33 running back carries. He didn’t play much on passing downs with only a 10.3% route share, so he could get game-scripted out this week if (or when) the 49ers run away with the game. Pollard finished with 25 carries and 161 rushing yards (two scores). It was his highest carry total of the season and his first 100-yard rushing day in 2025. Among 57 qualifying backs, Pollard ranks 36th in explosive run rate and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard could have another nice day if the Titans lean on the run. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the third-highest rushing success rate, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and had the third-lowest stuff rate.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

I don’t know what Ricky Pearsall did to piss off Kyle Shanahan, but he has been a ghost since his return to the lineup. Since Week 11, Pearsall has had a 10.2% target share with 6.7 receiving yards per game and a 10.2% first-read share. In those three games, he has had two end zone targets and three deep targets. Pearsall is a dart throw flex only until we see his role in this offense reappear. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Jennings should smash again this week.

Chimere Dike (WR)

Since Week 7, Chimere Dike has finished inside the top-36 in weekly scoring among wide receivers four times while seeing a 15.1% target share with 36.9 receiving yards per game, 1.31 yards per route run, and a 20.6% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had six red zone targets and five deep targets. Dike is a viable flex option this week. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Elic Ayomanor (WR)

Elic Ayomanor has finished as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring since Week 3. He hasn’t surpassed 15 receiving yards in a game since Week 9. It has been a tough season for Ayomanor after a promising start out of the gate. He has a 16.1% target share with 29.4 receiving yards per game, 1.01 yards per route run, and a 21.3% first-read share. He’s second on the team with six red zone targets and leads the squad with ten deep targets. Ayomanor is a deep league desperation flex only. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Cam Ward (QB)

Cam Ward has surpassed 14 fantasy points in only one game this season. He still hasn’t passed for more than 265 yards in any game and has one game with multiple passing touchdowns. Ward has finished as the QB21 or lower in weekly scoring nine times. I don’t want to play Ward this week or any week for that matter, but if you’re in a pickle this week, this would be the matchup to plug him in. Since Week 10, San Francisco has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the second-highest CPOE, and the 14th-most yards per attempt.

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

• CAR -2.5, O/U 40.5
• Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tyler Shough (QB)

We must be living in the upside-down because Tyler Shough has finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring in three of his five NFL starts (QB12, QB12, QB6). I don’t think Shough’s two rushing touchdowns last week or his 55 rushing yards were replicable moving forward, but he has flashed a rushing floor with at least 18 rushing yards in each of his last three games. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Shough ranks 15th in yards per attempt, ninth in catchable target rate, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, and 13th in hero throw rate. Shough could post another QB1 performance this week. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the fifth-highest success rate per dropback, the sixth-most yards per attempt, and the seventh-highest CPOE.

Devin Neal (RB)

Devin Neal will be the workhorse back for the Saints again this week. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 18.5 touches and 76.5 total yards with a 76.9% snap rate as the RB36 and RB15 in weekly scoring. In those two games, Neal has had a decent 3% explosive run rate with a strong 15% missed tackle rate. He has a wonderful matchup this week as a strong RB2. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, and the seventh-most yards before contact per attempt.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Despite his incredible efficiency and his standout performances this season, Dowdle took a back seat to Chuba Hubbard last week with a 43.5% snap rate, a 20.8% route share, and a 10% target share. Dowdle has outplayed Hubbard handily on a per-touch basis. Among 57 qualifying backs, Dowdle ranks 13th in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackle rate, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Last week, Dowdle finished with 20 touches and 79 total yards, seeing a touch or a target on 20 of his 27 snaps played. That type of usage on a per-snap basis is difficult to maintain. You’re threading a fine needle, so if Dowdle’s snap count doesn’t flip back in the other direction, he could become volatile, while on the surface it looked like he got an RB2-level workload in his last game. Dowdle is a strong flex and could be an RB2 this week (RB36 in Week 13). Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-most yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Hubbard 58.6% zone).

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

In Carolina’s last game, Chuba Hubbard reclaimed the lead back role with a 58.1% snap rate, a 54.2% route share, and a 10% target share. Hubbard finished with 19 touches and 124 total yards as the RB5 for the week. Hubbard’s lack of efficiency has been startling, especially with Carolina’s insistence on reinstalling him as the lead back. Among 57 qualifying backs, he has zero explosive runs and ranks 54th in missed tackle rate and 55th in yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard could still have a nice day against a burnable Saints’ run defense. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-most yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Hubbard 58.6% zone).

Chris Olave (WR)

Since Week 9, with Tyler Shough under center, Olave has been the WR22 in fantasy points per game with a 22.4% target share, 61.6 receiving yards per game, 1.95 yards per route run, and a 31.3% first-read share. In those five games, Olave has four end zone targets and ten deep targets. This week, he faces a Carolina pass defense that, since Week 8, has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (58.5%). Since Week 9, against single high, Olave has had a 26.5% first-read share with 2.19 yards per route run and a 31.3% first-read share. Olave is a strong WR1/2 again this week. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

Since Week 9, with Tyler Shough under center, Juwan Johnson has been the TE8 in fantasy points per game with a 17.3% target share, 49.2 receiving yards per game, 1.94 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. In those five games, Johnson has had two red zone targets and one deep target. This week, he faces a Carolina pass defense that, since Week 8, has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (58.5%). Since Week 9, against single high, Johnson has had a 20.6% target share with 1.75 yards per route run and a 22.9% first-read share. Johnson could easily be a TE1 again this week. Carolina has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Tetairoa McMillan (WR)

Tetairoa McMillan is the WR18 in fantasy points per game with a 23.5% target share, 63.5 receiving yards per game, 2.02 yards per route run, and a 28.2% first-read share. He leads the team with 14 red zone targets and 16 deep targets. This week, he faces a Saints’ secondary that, since Week 6, has had the third-highest single high rate (60.3%). Against single high, McMillan has seen his target share rise to 26.4% with 2.19 yards per route run and a 32.3% first-read share. McMillan has a tough matchup that he’ll have to overcome while also dealing with Bryce Young‘s yo-yo style of quarterback play. Since Week 10, the Saints have held perimeter wide receivers to the eight-fewest PPR points per target and the lowest passer rating when targeted.

Devaughn Vele (WR)

Since Week 10, with Tyler Shough under center, Vele has had a 17.6% target share with 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.35 yards per route run, and a 17.9% first-read share. In those four games, Vele has had two red zone targets and five deep targets. During that span, Vele has had one WR1 weekly finish (WR7) but sadly has been outside the top 45 wide receivers in weekly scoring in the other three games. This week, he faces a Carolina pass defense that, since Week 8, has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (58.5%). Since Week 10, against single high, Vele has had only a 15.1% target share with 0.89 yards per route run and an 11.1% first-read share. The market share and efficiency dips against single high drop Vele to low-end flex territory for Week 15. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Jalen Coker (WR)

Jalen Coker is on the deep league flex radar again this week. Since Week 6, the Saints’ secondary has had the third-highest single high rate (60.3%). Since Week 10, against single high, Coker has had an 18.2% target share with 2.52 yards per route run and a 28.2% first-read share. Those are strong numbers, no matter how you slice it. The worries for Coker are Bryce Young‘s uneven play and the improvement in the Saints’ pass defense. Since Week 10, the Saints have held slot receivers to the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the ninth-lowest passer rating when targeted.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Bryce Young (QB)

The last time Bryce Young faced this pass defense, he finished as the QB29 for the week with 124 passing yards, 5.0 yards per attempt, and zero passing touchdowns. Young’s volatility can’t be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Young ranks 31st in yards per attempt, 27th in passing yards per game, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and 22nd in catchable target rate. Even if I had any faith for Young to produce in Week 15, the Saints’ pass defense has improved, and it would knock him down a peg. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the second-fewest passing yards per game, and the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback.

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT

Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -6, O/U 48
• Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Dak Prescott
• Javonte Williams
• CeeDee Lamb
• George Pickens

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

J.J. McCarthy (QB)

Everyone wrote him off, and he didn’t write back. Last week, J.J. McCarthy had a nice bounce-back game that hopefully serves as a building block for the rest of the season as the QB9 in weekly scoring. It was his second QB1 outing of the season. Last week, among 29 quarterbacks with at least ten dropbacks, McCarthy ranked 13th in yards per attempt, fourth in highly accurate throw rate, seventh in catchable target rate, and third in hero throw rate. McCarthy could be a QB1 again this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the tenth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest passer rating, and the eighth-highest CPOE. McCarthy will have to deal with a defense that, during that same span, has ranked fourth in pressure rate. If he can navigate pressure this week, he could stack another strong game.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Jake Ferguson is the TE5 in fantasy points per game with an 18.3% target share, 42.6 receiving yards per game, 1.40 yards per route run, and a 20.3% first-read share. Ferguson ranks second amongst tight ends in red zone targets with 21, while also seeing four deep targets. The Vikings are a middle-of-the-road matchup that Ferguson could exploit this week. Minnesota has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends while ranking 17th in receiving yards per game. Ferguson is dealing with a calf injury. He didn’t practice on Thursday, but he had limited practices on Wednesday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable. If you’re depending on Ferguson this week, make sure you have a backup plan at tight end. With this game not kicking off until Sunday night, you might be left picking up Pat Freiermuth or Jonnu Smith as an emergency play. 

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Justin Jefferson (WR)

In JJ McCarthy’s seven games with Justin Jefferson this season, he has two WR2 weekly finishes (WR18, WR20) with a 29.1% target share, 47 receiving yards per game, 1.62 yards per route run, and a 34.1% first-read share. In those seven games, he has seven red zone targets and nine deep targets. Last week was a disappointing game for Jefferson, no doubt. This is the volatility that we unfortunately see with a young quarterback who has been struggling and trying to find his NFL legs. Jefferson is a volatile play again this week with a nice matchup. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jordan Addison (WR)

In Jordan Addison‘s five games with McCarthy under center, he hasn’t finished better than WR30 in any week, with only two top-36 weekly finishes (WR30, WR31). In those five games, he has had a 17.7% target share with 33 receiving yards per game, 1.15 yards per route run, and a 24% first-read share. In that same five-game sample, he has had two red zone targets and eight deep targets. He draws another plus matchup that renders him a low-end flex again this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Aaron Jones (RB)

Since Week 10, Aaron Jones has averaged a 57.1% snap rate with 13.4 touches and 61.6 total yards. He has been Minnesota’s lead back with Jordan Mason helping out on early downs. Jones hasn’t been impressive as a rusher this season, with only a 7% missed tackle rate and 1.98 yards after contact per attempt. Jones runs into an improved Dallas run defense this week, which renders him a flex play only. Since the arrival of Quinnen Williams, Dallas has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the 12th-fewest yards before contact per attempt, and had the tenth-best stuff rate.

T.J. Hockenson (TE)

T.J. Hockenson has two TE1 weekly finishes this season, and neither happened with JJ McCarthy under center. With McCarthy chucking the rock, Hockenson’s best weekly output was last week as the TE15 for the week. In his seven games with McCarthy under center, Hockenson has had a 13.7% target share (3.6 targets per game) with 16.6 receiving yards per game, 0.74 yards per route run, and a 13.2% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had only two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Hockenson is only a desperation streaming option this week. Dallas has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards and ranked 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT

Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• PIT -3.5, O/U 42
• Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jaylen Waddle
• De’Von Achane*

*De’Von Achane picked up a rib injury last week. Every report regarding his ribs has been positive. It sounds like he will play his usual role as the engine of the offense with some extra padding for his ribs this week.*

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Well, I didn’t see last week coming for Aaron Rodgers. With one healthy arm, he posted his highest passing yardage output of the season (284), only his third game with more than 8.0 yards per attempt, and just his second game with more than 20 fantasy points (first since Week 1). Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, tenth in passing touchdowns, 43rd in aDOT, and he has the second-highest percentage of his passing yards from yards after the catch (66.5%). I don’t want to chase last week’s outlier game against a larger sample of the 2025 season. Rodgers is a mid-range QB2 again this week. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the 15th-lowest yards per attempt and the tenth-lowest passer rating while giving up the 14th-highest CPOE and passing yards per game.

DK Metcalf (WR)

DK Metcalf is the WR25 in fantasy points per game with a 22.2% target share with 57.9 receiving yards per game, 2.04 yards per route run, and a 28.7% first-read share. Metcalf leads the team with 13 red zone targets and 16 deep targets. This week, he faces a Dolphins’ secondary that, since Week 13, has had the third-highest two-high rate (68.2%). Against two high, Metcalf has seen his target share dip to 16.7% with 1.67 yards per route run and a 22% first-read share. Metcalf’s decreased efficiency against two high has been an issue dating back to his Seattle days. He remains a solid WR3. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the 15th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 17th in fantasy points per game surrendered to the position.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Since Week 10, Miami has taken the air out of the ball and skewed massively run-heavy. Across their last four games, the Dolphins have had the lowest neutral passing rate (44%), and Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t attempted more than 23 passes in any game. It has capped the ceiling and dropped the weekly floor for Tagovailoa and all of the team’s pass catchers. Since Week 10, Tagovailoa has managed double-digit fantasy points only once and hasn’t finished higher than QB18 in any week. Add in that since Week 10, Pittsburgh has allowed the eighth-lowest success rate per dropback, the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, and the third-lowest CPOE, and Tagovailoa is a low-end QB2 not worth playing this week.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Since Week 12, Jaylen Warren has split the backfield work with Kenneth Gainwell, averaging 13.7 touches and 58 total yards. During those three games, Warren has had a 50.9% snap share, a 33% route share, and a 6.7% target share while seeing six red zone rushing attempts to Gainwell’s seven. Overall, among 57 qualifying backs, Warren ranks fifth in missed tackle rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Warren remains an RB2/3 this week with a tough matchup. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 14th-lowest rushing success rate, the third-lowest yards before contact per attempt, and had the sixth-highest stuff rate.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB)

Since Week 12, Kenneth Gainwell has split the backfield work with Jaylen Warren taking the lead in the red zone and with passing work. Since Week 12, he has averaged 11 touches and 69.6 total yards with a 48.9% snap share, a 48.9% route share, and 15.7% target share. During this stretch, he has had seven red zone rushing attempts (Warren, six). Overall, among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 26th in missed tackle rate and 31st in explosive run rate. Gainwell is a PPR flex this week with a tough matchup. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 14th-lowest rushing success rate, the third-lowest yards before contact per attempt, and had the sixth-highest stuff rate.

Darren Waller (TE)

Since his return to the lineup, Darren Waller has had a 60.8% route share, a 13.6% target share, 30 receiving yards per game, 1.94 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. All of those per-route metrics look solid to really damn good. The problem is that with Miami skewing so run-heavy, the market share of targets for Waller has amounted to only three targets per game. With the limited weekly raw volume now, Waller is a touchdown-or-bust streaming option. In his last two games, he has one red zone target and two deep targets. Waller is best left on the bench this week. Since Week 9, Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target, the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game, and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

*DK Metcalf is the only receiving option that can be “trusted” in Pittsburgh. Last week, Metcalf was the only pass catcher for Pittsburgh that eclipsed a 58% route share.*

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*