The Primer: Week 18 Edition (2026 Fantasy Football)

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

• CHI -3, O/U 50.5
• Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Bears can lock up the No. 2 seed with a win. They will run their starters out there as usual. The Lions have stated that they intend to play their starters and be cautious with players dealing with injuries.

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Jameson Williams

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

• QB12 in fantasy points per game
• Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks
  • Second in passing yards per game
  • Eighth in yards per attempt
  • Third in highly accurate throw rate
  • 13th in fantasy points per dropback
• Since Week 13, the Bears’ pass defense:
  • 10th-highest yards per attempt
  • 14th in CPOE
  • 13th-highest success rate per dropback
• Week 18 final thought: Goff is a low-end QB1.

Caleb Williams (QB)

• QB8 in fantasy points per game
• Only two QB1 weekly scoring finishes in his last five games
• Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks
  • 23rd in yards per attempt
  • 13th in passing yards per game
  • 33rd in highly accurate throw rate
  • 23rd in hero throw rate
• Since Week 13, the Detroit Lions’ pass defense:
  • 11th-most yards per attempt
  • 15th in CPOE
  • 13th-most passing touchdowns (tied)
  • 12th-lowest pressure rate
• Week 18 final thought: Williams is a low-end QB1 with potential for more this week.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

• Since Week 14:
  • RB13 in fantasy points per game
  • 15.3 touches and 81.8 total yards per game
  • 57% snap rate
  • 10 RZ rushing attempts
• Overall among 48 qualifying backs:
  • 11th in explosive run rate
  • 17th in missed tackle rate
• Since Week 13, the Detroit Lions’ run defense:
  • Fifth-most rushing yards per game
  • Eighth-highest explosive run rate
  • Sixth-most yards after contact per attempt
• Week 18 final thought: Swift is an RB2 with RB1 upside.

Luther Burden (WR)

• Weeks 13-17:
  • WR15 in fantasy points per game
  • 19.9% target share
  • 80.5 receiving yards per game
  • 3.79 YPRR
  • 29.3% first-read share
  • 1 RZ target and two deep targets
• Since Week 11, Detroit vs. wide receivers:
  • Tenth-most yards per target allowed
  • Second-most fantasy points per game
• Week 18 final thought: Burden is a strong WR2.

Colston Loveland (TE)

• Since Week 16:
  • 17.1% target share and 21.2% first-read share
  • 79.5% route share
  • 62 receiving yards per game (1.88 YPRR)
  • Three RZ targets and two deep targets
• Since Week 11, Detroit vs. tight ends:
  • 18th in yards per target allowed
  • 15th in fantasy points per game
• Week 18 final thought: Loveland is a locked-in TE1.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Kyle Monangai (RB)

• Since Week 14:
  • RB35 in fantasy points per game
  • 12.3 touches and 57.5 total yards per game
  • 42.2% snap rate
  • Seven RZ rushing attempts
• Overall among 48 qualifying backs:
  • 25th in explosive run rate
  • 20th in yards after contact per attempt
• Since Week 13, the Detroit Lions’ run defense:
  • Fifth-most rushing yards per game
  • Eighth-highest explosive run rate
  • Sixth-most yards after contact per attempt
• Week 18 final thought: Monangai is an RB3/flex that could be an RB2 if he scores a touchdown.

David Montgomery (RB)

• Since Week 11:
  • 7.8 touches and 40.1 total yards per game
  • RB46 in fantasy points per game
  • 31.3% snap rate
• Since Week 13, the Chicago Bears’ run defense:
  • Sixth-highest explosive run rate
  • 5th-highest rushing success rate
  • 12th-most yards before contact per attempt
• Week 18 final thought: Montgomery is a touchdown-dependent flex play.

DJ Moore (WR)

• Since Week 16:
  • 14.5% target share
  • 52 receiving yards per game (1.41 YPRR)
  • 24.2% first-read share
  • One RZ target and two deep targets
• Since Week 11, Detroit vs. wide receivers:
  • Tenth-most yards per target allowed
  • Second-most fantasy points per game
• Week 18 final thought: Moore is a WR3 that could easily finish with WR1/2 numbers this week.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Rome Odunze (WR)

• Rome Odunze has been dealing with a foot injury. Odunze’s status is up in the air. Even if he is active (I lean that he sits), he might be on a pitch count.

CAR vs. TB | SEA vs. SF | TEN vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | CLE vs. CIN | NO vs. ATL | GB vs. MIN | DAL vs. NYG | DET vs. CHI | NYJ vs. BUF | LAC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NE | ARI vs. LAR | WAS vs. PHI | KC vs. LV | BAL vs. PIT

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -7, O/U 38.5
• New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Bills are locked into a Wild Card spot. The Bills could play their starters for part of this game and pull them once the game is in hand. The Jets have been out of playoff contention for weeks, so I expect their starters to play the entire game.

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Breece Hall
• Josh Allen*
• James Cook*

*I’ll update the Bills situation as we get more news. It’s possible that Buffalo rests their starters, but they could easily play them for half of the game. If you have Josh Allen and James Cook, you’ll have to weigh possibly half of the game production from them versus other options. With the playing time getting muddy for all of the Bills’ other skill players for Week 18, I can’t play any of them outside of Allen and Cook.*

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Adonai Mitchell (WR)

• Since Week 12:
  • Two top 24 wide receiver weekly scoring finishes (WR5, WR14)
  • 24.9% target share
  • 48.5 receiving yards per game (1.54 YPRR)
  • 30.9% first-read share
  • Seven RZ targets and 12 deep targets
• Since Week 13, the Bills’ pass defense vs. perimeter wide receivers
  • Fifth-fewest PPR points per target
  • Fourth-fewest receiving yards per game
• Week 18 final thought: Mitchell is a volume-based flex/WR4 this week.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

N/A

CAR vs. TB | SEA vs. SF | TEN vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | CLE vs. CIN | NO vs. ATL | GB vs. MIN | DAL vs. NYG | DET vs. CHI | NYJ vs. BUF | LAC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NE | ARI vs. LAR | WAS vs. PHI | KC vs. LV | BAL vs. PIT

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -12.5, O/U 37.5
• Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Chargers are expected to sit their starters this week. They are locked into the six or seven seed for the playoffs. The Broncos can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win or losses/tied by both the Patriots and Jaguars, so Denver will go all out this week to win this game.

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bo Nix
• RJ Harvey
• Courtland Sutton

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Trey Lance (QB)

• With Lance’s 17 dropbacks this season:
  • Eight rushing attempts (16 rushing yards)
  • Two scrambles
  • 46.2% highly accurate throw rate
  • 69.2% catchable target rate
• Since Week 10, Denver’s pass defense:
  • Fifth-best pressure rate
  • Ninth-fewest yards per attempt
  • 12th-lowest passer rating
  • 16th in passing yards per game
• Week 18 final thought: Lance is a QB2 that you’re possibly rolling out in Superflex because of his rushing upside. In 1QB leagues, sit him.

Troy Franklin (WR)

• WR34 in fantasy points per game this season
• 10th in the NFL in RZ targets & Seventh in deep targets
• Since Week 16, the Chargers’ pass defense: Third-highest two high rate (70.3%)
  • Since Week 11, Franklin vs. two high:
    • 9.5% target share
    • 1.18 YPRR
    • 12% first-read share (no bueno)
• Since Week 13, the Chargers vs. perimeter wide receivers
  • Seventh-most fantasy points per game allowed
  • Eighth-most receiving yards per game
• Week 18 final thought: Franklin is a WR4 that is best left on the bench this week.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Jaret Patterson (RB)

• Patterson’s per-touch efficiency with his 33 carries this season
  • 3.0% explosive run rate
  • 12% missed tackle rate
  • 1.97 yards after contact per attempt (WOOF!)
• Since Week 13, Denver’s run defense:
  • Sixth-fewest rushing yards per game and yards after contact per attempt
  • 12th-lowest rushing success rate
  • 11th-fewest yards before contact per attempt
• Week 18 final thought: Patterson could be a volume-driven flex play this week if he gets the lion’s share of the work.

Tre’ Harris (WR)

• This season
  • 16% TPRR
  • 1.29 YPRR
  • Four RZ targets and five deep targets
• Possible Patrick Surtain shadow this week
  • Surtain has followed seven wide receivers on at least 64.3% of their routes
  • None of those wide receivers surpassed 61 yards in his coverage (only one touchdown)
• Week 18 final thought: Harris is a WR4 who could be erased by Surtain this week. Sit him.

CAR vs. TB | SEA vs. SF | TEN vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | CLE vs. CIN | NO vs. ATL | GB vs. MIN | DAL vs. NYG | DET vs. CHI | NYJ vs. BUF | LAC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NE | ARI vs. LAR | WAS vs. PHI | KC vs. LV | BAL vs. PIT

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

• NE -10.5, O/U 45.5
• Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Dolphins are out of playoff contention. I expect them to play their healthy starters. The Patriots could secure the No. 1 seed with a win and a Denver loss. The Broncos will be playing at the same time as the Patriots, so I expect the Patriots to go all out for the win.

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Stefon Diggs
• Drake Maye
• TreVeyon Henderson
• Hunter Henry

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

• Last week:
  • 48.4% snap share and 64.3% route share (20% target share)
  • 13 touches and 102 total yards (two scores)
• Overall (among 48 qualifying backs):
  • • 16th in explosive run rate
    • Fifth-best in missed tackle rate
    • 19th in yards after contact per attempt
• Since Week 13, the Dolphins’ run defense:
  • Ninth-most rushing yards per game allowed
  • Fifth-highest explosive run rate
  • Fourth-most yards after contact per attempt

• Week 18 final thought: Stevenson is an RB2 with RB1 upside this week.

Jaylen Wright (RB)

• This season (57 carries):
  • 3.5% explosive run rate
  • 18% missed tackle rate
  • 2.60 yards after contact per attempt
• Since Week 13, the New England Patriots’ run defense:
  • Third-most rushing yards per game
  • Fifth-highest explosive run rate allowed
  • Highest yards before contact per attempt allowed
• Week 18 final thought: Wright should flirt with 15-20 touches this week in a great matchup. Wright is a plug-and-play RB2. With Darren Waller and Jaylen Waddle out, it will hurt the offensive efficiency, but Wright is a good bet for volume this week.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

N/A

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Quinn Ewers (QB)

• Over the last two weeks: QB27, QB16
• Since Week 16 (among 32 qualifying quarterbacks):
  • Eighth in yards per attempt
  • 25th in highly accurate throw rate
  • 23rd in hero throw rate
  • 16th in fantasy points per dropback
• Since Week 13, the Patriots’ pass defense:
  • Eighth-lowest success rate per dropback allowed
  • Third-fewest passing yards per game
  • Eighth-lowest yards per attempt
• Week 18 final thought: Ewers is an uninspiring QB2 that you’re not considering for your lineups unless you’re in a Superflex league.

CAR vs. TB | SEA vs. SF | TEN vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | CLE vs. CIN | NO vs. ATL | GB vs. MIN | DAL vs. NYG | DET vs. CHI | NYJ vs. BUF | LAC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NE | ARI vs. LAR | WAS vs. PHI | KC vs. LV | BAL vs. PIT