Every draft season comes with optimism, upside… and a few craters waiting to ruin your Sunday afternoons. While it’s easy to fall in love with last year’s stats or offseason hype, not every early-round pick is built to deliver on their price tag. Our Featured Pros highlight the players who carry just enough risk to make you sweat and potentially regret clicking “Draft” before the timer hits zero.
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Early Bust Candidates
Running Backs
What RB in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
Bucky Irving (RB – TB)
“The most popular answer here is sure to be Bucky Irving. And he’s my answer, too. Kenneth Gainwell proved last season that he can be an excellent piece to a potent backfield, especially in the receiving game. He’s sure to step into the vacated Rachaad White role. And, if that was all that happened this offseason, Bucky would still feel solid. But the Bucs also re-signed Sean Tucker, who was used as a short-yardage and goal-line back last season, nuking Irving’s upside. With an upgrade on White’s ability with Gainwell and Tucker back in the fold, Irving faces another uphill climb to his current RB15 value. And, that’s assuming Mike Evans‘ departure or Zac Robinson’s arrival don’t further impact a healthy Irving’s bottom line.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
“Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving has seemingly been forgiven for his lackluster sophomore season, in which he finished as the overall PPR RB34 and RB18 on a points-per-game basis. Some of that had to do with his seven missed games with a shoulder and ankle injury. Yet he was also incredibly inefficient, averaging 0.67 fantasy points per opportunity (62nd-best at the position) and 3.4 Yards Per Carry (YPC). This was while facing a stacked front on only 3.5% of carries (48th-highest rate among running backs). That likely increases when WR Mike Evans is not in the picture, making the defense respect the offense going over the top. You also have to factor in RB Kenneth Gainwell stealing pass-catching work after finishing fifth among RBs in targets (85), fourth in receptions (73), and fifth in receiving yards (486) among the position last season.”
– Seth Woolcock (FantasyPros)
“Bucky Irving missed seven games last season and saw his rushing efficiency fall off when active. He really underwhelmed in EPA per rush (-0.21), success rate (34.6%), and explosive run rate (12.1%). Tampa Bay’s free-agent addition of Kenneth Gainwell adds more pressure, especially in the passing game. Gainwell finished fourth among RBs in catches last season.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
“Bucky Irving had a sophomore season to forget. He was limited to 10 games due to injury and was wildly inefficient. He posted the 4th-lowest rushing success rate, finishing third-worst in YPC (3.4). The second-year RB scored one rushing TD in 2025. Even with Rachaad White gone in free agency, Todd Bowles’ other favorite RB, Sean Tucker, might continue to rear his ugly head again near the goal line in 2026. New OC Zac Robinson notoriously used Tyler Allegier in the red zone with the Falcons. Not to mention, Kenneth Gainwell will also be vying for targets after signing with TB this offseason. In multiple stops the past several seasons, Gainwell has forced his way onto the field. At RB15 ECR, Irving is a tough click without a lock on the Bucs’ high-value backfield touches.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“After an injury-plagued second season, Bucky Irving will be looking to rebound headed into year three. There is some level of concern for Irving and any potential investors in 2026. The Buccaneers signed Kenneth Gainwell to replace Rashaad White this offseason, and Sean Tucker remains a looming threat to steal goal-line work from Irving. The question most will have surrounding Irving is whether he is the guy that averaged just over 19 fantasy points per contest prior to his injury (Weeks 1-4), or the guy that averaged just over 12 fantasy points per contest post return (Weeks 13-18). At the cost of RB14, that price point is a little bit steep for a player with more questions than answers.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“To be frank, no player in fantasy football scares me more in 2026 than Bucky Irving. The Buccaneers added Kenneth Gainwell after he posted 486 receiving yards last season (top-5 among RBs), and Sean Tucker already handled 11 goal-line carries while Irving saw zero inside the 5 last season. That puts immediate pressure on the two highest-value areas for fantasy scoring. Irving’s efficiency also slipped, finishing bottom-10 in yards per carry, yards after contact, and explosive run rate, while Tampa’s offense dropped from 5th to 20th in EPA per play. This sets up as more of a “20-to-20″ role, where he’s handling carries between the 20s without a consistent third-down or goal-line role, which is a tough way to pay off his current price.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (The Armchair Sports Corner)
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – NO)
“I am not sold on Travis Etienne Jr. as a Top-20 running back at this point. It is being assumed that Tyler Shough is the answer behind center for the Saints, but I think two boom games against arguably the two worst defenses in the league inflated his stats, not to mention he has not stayed healthy, ever. The Saints’ backfield garnered just 72 targets from their top three backs last season, and Alvin Kamara is still there, even if aged. The ceiling is quite low for Etienne.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE)
“TreVeyon Henderson is at RB20 right now, and I absolutely love the upside. We just can’t trust the coaching. This offense was stuck in the mud and needed some juice in the Super Bowl, and they didn’t use him. I hope they use him more next year, especially in the passing game. But, it is tough to trust him as your RB1 or RB2 until we see the opportunities increase.”
– David Heilman (Dynasty Trade Calculator)
“Unless Rhamondre Stevenson gets hurt in 2026, I don’t see TreVeyon Henderson finishing as a top 24 running back. Yes, he was the RB24 in fantasy points per game, but his 32.3 PPR point outing in Week 11 is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Last year, Henderson had three games with at least 28 PPR points. Outside of those contests, he surpassed 13 PPR points in only one game. Stevenson did nothing last year to shake the coaching staff’s faith in him. In 2025, he finished top-five in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt while also allowing only one quarterback hit (zero sacks) in pass protection (per Fantasy Points Data). Stevenson should remain the lead back for New England in 2026, which means Henderson likely doesn’t pay off at his current ADP.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
“I am still confused as to why Jonathan Taylor is RB4 (tier 1) for the 2026 season. He is a great player, but last year, after a VERY STRONG start (against mediocre defenses), he fell back to earth and helped crush championship hopes for many managers. From week 9-18, Taylor only had a single RB1 week (the wild game in Germany). Other than that week, he only scored 3 times and averaged 63 yards/game. Taylor won’t be RB30, as he was in week 12 vs the Steelers, but owners shouldn’t expect to get tier 1 RB performances in 2026.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
“Admittedly, Quinshon Judkins is ranked 23rd, so the risks with him are lower than some higher up the board, but there are still warning signs. The Browns have had to completely rebuild their offensive line in free agency, with all five starters moving on. They’ve made solid signings, but more often than not, free agency isn’t the place to rebuild key positions like that. Cleveland will also likely deal with inefficient QB play from one or both of Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders, and Todd Monken can’t help but rotate his running backs. Often, taking Derrick Henry off the field for Justice Hill when it made no sense. Dylan Sampson is no scrub and could take touches from Judkins, particularly if Judkins struggles to recover from his injury in time to start the year.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
RJ Harvey (RB – DEN)
“It’s probably best to steer clear of RJ Harvey unless the price comes down from RB24, No. 60 overall. Some people see the Broncos’ re-signing of J.K. Dobbins as a positive for Harvey, believing that Denver could have signed a more existential threat to Harvey’s role (Kenneth Walker or Travis Etienne, for instance). But Dobbins is capable of kneecapping Harvey’s production, at least in the running game. Last season, Dobbins averaged 15.3 carries in the 10 games he played. Harvey averaged 5.0 carries and 2.5 catches with Dobbins around. After the Dobbins injury, Harvey averaged 12.8 carries a game over Denver’s last seven regular-season games and two playoff games — and averaged 3.3 yards per carry running behind an offensive line that PFF graded seventh-best at run blocking. Broncos head coach Sean Payton traditionally rotates his RBs, and while Harvey offers some pass-catching appeal, he might not get enough carries to justify his low-end RB2 cost.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Isiah Pacheco (RB – DET)
“Isiah Pacheco now finds himself in a secondary role with the Detroit Lions, where this is clearly Jahmyr Gibbs‘ backfield. Rather than competing for a lead role, Pacheco is more likely to be used as a breather back to keep Gibbs fresh. In previous seasons, David Montgomery handled a significant share of early down and goal-line work, but there is no guarantee Pacheco steps into that same level of usage. If anything, his role could be even more limited in an offense that is shifting toward more passing and explosive playmakers. Without consistent volume or high-value touches, it will be difficult for Isiah Pacheco not only to return value at his draft cost, but also to be a reliable weekly starter as he is being drafted as an RB2 in fantasy football, unless Gibbs misses time.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)
“Christian McCaffrey has the highest chance of being a bust this year. We all know of his injury concerns each year, but the blockers around him are also in rough shape. Injuries are adding up for McCaffrey, Kittle, and Williams as they are getting up there in age. It also doesn’t help that touchdown monster Mike Evans comes to town to steal his upside. The efficiency numbers were horrible last year, and the division is incredibly talented, so they will not run as much. ”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)
“There are a few names that make me queasy at the top of the running back ranks. This includes De’Von Achane, Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, Cam Skattebo, D’Andre Swift, and RJ. Harvey. However, Christian McCaffrey goes at the start of drafts and could quickly derail your fantasy season. It’s never fun to predict players’ injuries, and we know he is a star when healthy. Whether you want to blame it on the Power Plant or his history of injuries, coming off a season with 413 touches is scary. To put that in perspective, Jonathan Taylor had the second most touches with 369 last season. If you miss on your first-round pick, it’s very tough to win a championship. As a result, I don’t view the drop-off to Taylor as a strong enough reason to select CMC.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
“The RB in our consensus top 24 that fantasy managers should fear the most as a bust candidate is De’Von Achane (RB-MIA). He’s going top 5 overall in some early drafts and sitting firmly in the elite RB tier across consensus rankings. Historically, hyper-efficiency RBs regress hard unless volume is elite, and it isn’t here. If Achane’s efficiency drops even 10-15%, he falls from RB1 to mid-RB2 quickly. He is not built like a traditional bell cow, and I am concerned about an injury risk and managed workload. With the recent turnover in the QB and WR positions in Miami, they will lean on him too much this season. It all adds up to a disaster for fantasy league managers who draft Achane this season. You can’t win your fantasy football leagues in the first round, but you sure can lose them. Let De’Von Achane be someone else’s headache.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
Wide Receivers
What WR in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
“Not to pick on the Saints, but Chris Olave is my easy answer here. As I already said, I do not think Shough is as good as the end of the year would have you believe. In those same two games against terrible defenses, Olave produced nearly 20% of his targets and receptions, 23% of his yards, and 33% of his touchdowns on the year. Outside of those two games, the Saint had just a single 100-yard game. With less touchdown luck, Olave is a mid-level WR2 disguised as a WR1.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
Luther Burden III (WR – CHI)
“Luther. Burden. He’s currently the half-PPR WR23 based on pure projection. The talent is there to produce, but he’s more than likely to be much more boom-bust than we’d hope. In a run-first offense helmed by a still-developing QB with a defense bound to improve, Burden profiles to me as a WR3 with weekly WR1 upside. He’s essentially Jameson Williams, but like Jamo, you’ll have to pay WR2 prices to get him. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze for me this year, given how often he is to be phased out of the game plan due to some combination of script, coverage, and usage.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
“It feels like we’re putting the cart before the horse with Chicago Bears WR Luther Burden III, ranking him as a mid-fourth-round pick. There’s no denying his late-season mini-breakout, but there’s still the reality that WR Rome Odunze will run more routes as the team’s X receiver and that last year’s 10th-overall pick in the NFL, TE Colston Loveland, should take another step forward after leading Chicago with 58 receptions, 713 yards, and six touchdowns on just 82 targets. The former Missouri Tigers has strong efficiency metrics on his side, but he still has to improve winning against man coverage after posting just an 18.5% target rate against man coverage (66th-best among the position). We also need to see his Average Depth of Target (aDOT) jump up, as his 7.7 aDOT ranked 87th among receivers. You’re drafting Burden III close to his ceiling at his ranking and current Underdog Fantasy best ball ADP of 42 overall.”
– Seth Woolcock (FantasyPros)
Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
“Rashee Rice at WR13 is a tough one. This guy is a loose cannon and could get arrested or in trouble at any point this offseason or even during the season. But we also have to see where Patrick Mahomes is in his recovery. Could we see Justin Fields start the season for a few games? Could we see Mahomes limited and more of a run-heavy approach? Either way, Rice did not end the season well last year, and having him as your WR1 is very scary, and at WR13, that could very likely be the case.”
– David Heilman (Dynasty Trade Calculator)
“Rashee Rice is anything but a clean sheet. Last year, he missed the first six weeks due to a suspension. This was a result of street racing, causing a multi-car collision and injuring multiple people. This offseason, his former long-term partner and the mother of his two children accused him of domestic abuse between December 2023 and January 2025. Although these are accusations at the moment, with his history, he is not a player I want to bet my fantasy season on. Plus, at this point in drafts, there are plenty of good players with upside around him. Regardless of Kansas City drafting a receiver early or not, I don’t want to deal with the headache of Rice for another season.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)
Jameson Williams (WR – DET)
“I can’t invest in Jameson Williams with a top 24 price tag. Yes, I know he was the WR17 in fantasy points per game last year, but I don’t want to bet on him producing at that level again in 2026. Over the last two seasons, Williams has proven that he isn’t a high-end target earner, ranking 44th (18.4%) and 51st (18.9%) in target share among wide receivers. During that span, he has also been the WR23 and WR36 in expected fantasy points per game. With Sam LaPorta coming back healthy this season and impacting Williams’ production, it’s tough to be bullish about Williams defying the odds for a third straight season.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
George Pickens (WR – DAL)
“George Pickens had a very up-and-down 2025, but the Cowboys saw enough to place the franchise tag on him. If owners look closely, his two best weeks occurred when CeeDee Lamb was out, where he had breakout performances as the wide receiver No. 2 (Week 4 vs Green Bay) and wide receiver No. 1 (Week 6 vs Carolina)! Throughout the entire season, he only had six WR1 weeks, which is not what an owner wants from the consensus WR10. He only had 5 weeks over 100 yards, which accounted for about half his season yardage total! While Pickens is not going to be the WR61, as he was week 15 vs the Vikings, he will not perform at a consistent enough level to reward owners who drafted him at WR10.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Davante Adams (WR – LAR)
“Multiple reports suggested the Rams considered trading Davante Adams this offseason. He now looks set to return, but I’m staying away after a 2025 season fueled by an unsustainable 23.3% TD rate. The 33-year-old also saw his catch rate dip to 52.6% and his yards per route run fall to 1.90.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
“Davante Adams has had a splendid career, but WR17, No. 40 overall, is too steep a price for a 33-year-old receiver whose WR9 PPR finish in 2025 was driven by an unsustainable touchdown rate. Adams led the league with 14 TD catches last season — three more than his closest pursuers. He scored a touchdown on 23.3% of his catches and 12.3% of his targets. Those percentages are crazy and unrepeatable. Meanwhile, Adams was slipping in other areas. His 4.3 catches and 56.4 yards per game were the fewest in those categories since his second year in the league in 2015. His 52.6% catch rate was a career low. Adams plays with an alpha target earner in Puka Nacua, and the Rams are reportedly interested in either trading for A.J. Brown or adding another receiver in the draft. I’m not touching Adams in 2026 fantasy drafts.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“The early ECR is pricing Davante Adams as a mid-WR2 (WR17), and I’m simply not buying it. Last year was actually a red flag season disguised as a good one; he posted a career-low catch rate of 53%, his YAC per reception hit a career low, and the bulk of his production was TD-dependent with 15 scores. That kind of touchdown volume is notoriously hard to replicate year over year. Even though Matthew Stafford is back under center in LA, he may not force-feed Adams in the end zone as he did in 2025 en route to an MVP award. On top of that, Adams turns 33 and dealt with a lower-body tissue injury in 2025 that cost him time; at his age, that’s not something you just brush off. When I look at the totality of his 2026 outlook, the age, the injury, the TD regression risk, the declining efficiency numbers, and the odds the Rams add another WR in the draft, I see a player far more likely to fall off than to replicate what he did last year.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“This is actually a really tough question, because I can make a strong case for just about every wide receiver in the Top 24 to succeed. If I’m forced to pick one, it’s Davante Adams. He’s coming off a season where he scored 15 touchdowns, but the underlying profile raises some concerns, including a career-low 53% catch rate and a dip to a career-low in yards after catch per reception. He’s also entering his age-33 season, which historically isn’t where you want to be betting on sustained elite WR production, especially when efficiency is already trending down. The Rams showed you last year they’re comfortable operating out of heavier personnel, and now you’re seeing consistent links to additional pass catchers, including rumors about an A. J. Brown trade and every mock draft is pointing to another wide receiver addition. When you factor in the age, the efficiency dip, and how touchdown-driven the production was, it becomes a much tighter projection than it looks on the surface.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (The Armchair Sports Corner)
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
“Malik Nabers – per Joe Schoen, “The plan is hopefully for [Nabers] to still be ready for training camp. Again, don’t hold me to it; things change.” When you add that quote a few weeks ago to the less-than-confident messages Malik Nabers has put out there since his Week 4 ACL tear, it becomes a little scary. Combined with that is Jaxson Dart‘s erratic rookie season, and while he has promise, he needs to be more consistent, and we have to hope there’s enough volume to support both Nabers and Likely in a John Harbaugh offense. It’s not a pretty picture.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
“Being required to pay a top-20 cost for a player that only caught 5 touchdowns in 2025 seems a touch over the top. Now factor in that same exact player only finishing as a top-20 receiver weekly in half-PPR 5 times, with no top-20 finish from Weeks 2-13, that is what fantasy managers are getting with Zay Flowers. Yes, the talent screams high-end fantasy asset, that is undeniable, and while his end of the season may have won people championships, how many fantasy managers got to a championship with Zay Flowers? To discount his fantasy production in the middle of the season for what he did at the end of the season seems irresponsible, and an investment not worth making for fantasy managers in 2026.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
“Tyreek Hill is still being drafted as a Top 15 wide receiver, but there are too many question marks to justify that price. He is coming off a serious knee injury and is uncertain for the start of the season, and most importantly, he does not currently have a confirmed team situation. At 33 years old, it is fair to question whether he can immediately return to his previous level of production. Hill still has elite upside if he proves his health and speed are fully back, but until that happens, he should be viewed more as a WR2/3 rather than a locked-in WR1 to build your fantasy team around. Drafting Tyreek Hill at his current cost requires a level of certainty that simply is not there.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
“CeeDee Lamb has the highest chance of not performing to his ADP as a top-5 receiver. There are simply too many mouths to feed in Dallas when George Pickens is there. He was WR15 in points per game last year, and the situation is unlikely to improve with all of their offensive pieces back. This team also added a ton of defensive pieces in the last year and is going all in on winning, which means more running. The volume from this team structure will not be enough to support his ADP.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)
Drake London (WR – ATL)
“The wide receiver in consensus top 24 fantasy football 2026 rankings should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate is Drake London. He’s being drafted in the WR6-WR10 range in early rankings and even into the top 12 overall picks in some league formats. My concern here is that you are paying for a ceiling outcome. This means that you are assuming sustained elite target share, High TD conversion rates, and continued offensive efficiency. But historically speaking, Wide Receivers jumping into the elite tier often regress the following year, especially when driven by volume spikes. And the recent acquisition of Tua Tagovailoa does not scream offensive efficiency to me. From a drafting perspective, London sits in an awkward middle tier. He’s not as proven as the elites, and he’s not as explosively upside-down as the younger Wide Receiver breakouts. That’s a dangerous place to draft from. If you draft London, you’re drafting him at or near his absolute ceiling; his production relies on multiple variables staying perfect, and even mild regression turns him into a WR2 at a WR1 price. Even though I reside in metro Atlanta, Drake London is on my do not draft at his current ADP list for 2026.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
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