Fantasy Football Player Notes

I'm not sure how many realize how rare Thomas' season was in 2019. He saw 185 targets on a team that threw the ball just 581 times. That's a ridiculous 31.8 percent target share. Just so you know, it's rare for a receiver to see a 25 percent target share. I've already stated in the Drew Brees paragraph that I expect this offense to throw just a bit less in 2020. Initial projections have them around 560 pass attempts, so bringing that down to even a 28 percent target share would force Thomas to lose about 28 targets. You can see why a repeat of last year's numbers are unlikely, especially when you factor in the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders as a rock-solid No. 2 receiver who'll garner more targets than Ted Ginn and/or Tre'Quan Smith would've. Still, Thomas is my WR1 heading into the season, because outside of injury, he's projected as my top receiver by a full 15 half-PPR points.

In the 17 games that Sanders played last year (no bye week for him with the trade), he totaled more than 33 yards just eight times. In every one of those games, he saw at least six targets. That's going to be difficult to come by during his time in New Orleans. Michael Thomas is going to get a massive chunk of the targets, and rightfully so. You don't want to start taking targets away from Alvin Kamara, either. And judging how efficient Jared Cook was last year, you'd be hard pressed to take away any of his 65 targets from last year. So, where do the targets for Sanders come from? He's now 33 years old and is clearly towards the end of his career. This was a better move from a football standpoint than a fantasy one. Yes, he's getting a big upgrade at quarterback, but you need targets to produce. There was just one game last year where a Saints receiver not named Michael Thomas saw more than six targets. He's a WR5 for me, which means I'll have none at his current cost of WR44.

It seems many have simply forgotten that Smith is still on the roster despite being a third-round pick by the Saints just two years ago. It's fair considering he's seen just 69 targets in that span, but what if Michael Thomas had to miss some time? Smith has averaged a ridiculously high 9.6 yards per target in his first two seasons and can be lined up all over the field. He's also scored a touchdown every 6.9 targets (10 of them on 69 career targets). If you play in a dynasty league and Smith can be had on the cheap, make that move. It's very possible he'd be the top receiver on the team if Thomas were held out, as he has experience in the offense and the Saints have every reason to want him to succeed. Keep him on waiver wire speed dial in redraft leagues.