Fantasy Football Player Notes

The last time we saw Michael Thomas, he limped to a WR41 finish in fantasy points per game. While this sounds horrendous, much of it is related to the fact he scored zero touchdowns in 2020, as his underlying metrics were still strong. Thomas ranked 24th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF) and drew a 27.9% target share in his seven games played. With a better supporting receiving class around him now, the Saints could throw the ball more often this season. If Thomas can get back to full strength, he should still be a fulcrum for the New Orleans aerial attack as a target hog.

The Saints aggressively moved up for a player they have faith in with Chris Olave. If Michael Thomas isn't fully healthy, Olave could be pressed into number one wide receiver duties as Jarvis Landry is merely a complementary piece at this stage of his career. Olave is a polished prospect who finished 11th or better in yards per route run in two of the last three seasons (minimum 50 targets per PFF).

Jarvis Landry earned targets at a high rate last season in Cleveland, ranking 16th in targets per snap. If Michael Thomas isn't healthy, Landry could easily do this again in 2022, competing against Chris Olave, Marquez Callaway, Tre'Quan Smith, and Deonte Harty. He showed that he had some gas left in the tank in 2021, finishing 28th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) and 22nd in yards after the catch per reception.

What a difference a year makes. Marquez Callaway was the hype machine target last year, but sadly he massively disappointed fantasy managers. He finished the season as the WR50 in fantasy points per game. Callaway simply isn't a wide receiver that should be expected to lead an NFL passing attack. Last year he was 62nd in route win rate and 69th in route win rate against man coverage (per Playerprofiler.com). These lagging metrics explain why he was 59th in target per route run rate. This season he slides back to the middle of the pack on the Saints' wide receiver depth chart and the fantasy abyss.

New Orleans' WR room has gotten more crowded this offseason, but I can't help hyping up my guy Deonte Harty. Harty saw an extremely high target rate per route run in 2021 (27%) and finished sixth in both PFF receiving grade (86.8) and yards per route run (2.69).
He had over 52 receiving yards in three of Jameis Winston's starts last season, which indicates to me he has some built-in rapport with the quarterback. If a starting opportunity opens in the Saints offense, I'm confident Harty would deliver fantasy goodness.