Fantasy Football Player Notes
2024 Draft Rankings
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1.
CeeDee Lamb
DAL (vs . WAS)
Lamb finally did it. He DID IT! He finished as the WR1 in fantasy points per game while going on an absolute heater to close the season. Lamb surpassed 100 receiving yards in seven of his final 12 games, including a monstrous 227 receiving yard performance in Week 17. Last year, among 81 qualifying receivers, he ranked fourth in target share (29.2%), fifth in yards per route run (2.90), and eighth in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). There's nothing to stop him from challenging for the WR1 crown again in 2024, with Dallas running it back with almost the same cast of skilled characters. Lamb should eat.
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2.
Tyreek Hill
MIA (at NYJ)
Tyreek Hill had arguably a career-best season last year. He finished with career highs in targets (171), receiving yards (1,799), and fantasy points per game (23.5) as the WR2 in fantasy. Hill was similarly stellar in every efficiency and market share stat you can find. He was first in target share (31.1%), second in air-yard share (42.2%), and first in yards per route run (4.05) and first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). There's no reason to expect any falloff in 2024. Hill is a top-five pick in fantasy football.
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3.
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN (at PIT)
Chase's 2023 season was ruined by injury both with his quarterback (Joe Burrow) and his late-season shoulder sprain. In Weeks 1-4, while Burrow was looking like a shadow of his former self, Chase was still the WR23, drawing a 27.0% target share, a 34.6% air-yard share, and a 36.2% first-read share while producing 1.81 yards per route run (YPRR) and 0.102 first downs per route run (FD/RR). In Weeks 5-10, when Burrow was back to dealing, Chase was the WR4 in fantasy, commanding a 28.4% target share, a 43.1% air-yard share, and a 34.5% first read share while churning out a whopping 2.69 YPRR and 0.145 FD/RR. Chase should be viewed as a consensus top-four wide receiver and a top-three pick in fantasy.
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4.
Justin Jefferson
MIN (at DET)
Despite dealing with injuries and bad quarterback play for part of the season, Jefferson finished as the WR5 in fantasy points per game. If you exclude Week 14, in which he played only 18% of the snaps, he was the WR4 in fantasy points per game. Even after Week 14, when he was suffering through the quarterback roulette wheel, Jefferson still churned out 22.1 fantasy points per game while drawing a 30.1% target share, manufacturing 3.03 YPRR, and blazing 0.134 FD/RR (ninth-best, per Fantasy Points Data). Jefferson is quarterback-proof, so it doesn't matter to me whether Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy is under center this season. Jefferson has proven he can still be a top-five fantasy wideout with putrid passers. If Darnold and McCarthy outperform expectations, Jefferson could still have WR1 overall upside.
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5.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET (vs . MIN)
St. Brown proved yet again last year that his talent is real, and he should be considered a top-shelf WR1 in all formats. St. Brown finished as the WR4 in fantasy while ranking top-five in receiving yards (1,515), red zone targets (third-most), and receiving touchdowns (10, fifth-best). St. Brown ranked fourth in first downs per route run and seventh in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). St. Brown should be a locked-in mid-first-round pick this year with a top-three wide receiver upside.
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6.
A.J. Brown
PHI (vs . NYG)
Brown has cemented his status as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL after he arrived in Philly with back-to-back WR8 finishes in fantasy points per game. The Eagles' offense went off the rails last year with pitiful play calling, but with Kellen Moore in town that hopefully gets rectified. There's no reason Brown can produce top-ten numbers at the wide receiver position again in 2024 with top-five status in his range of outcomes. Brown remains in the prime of his career after ranking eighth in yards per route run and seventh in first downs per route run last season (per Fantasy Points Data).
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7.
Puka Nacua
LAR (vs . SEA)
Everyone HURRY! Get it. Grab it. Got it? Good. Pop the tops on those Puka Juice 40s; it's time to CHUG! Nacua had a rookie season for the ages, finishing as the WR6 in fantasy points per game. He set rookie records for receptions and receiving yards. Even after Cooper Kupp returned, he led the duo in target share (25.4%), air-yard share (32.7%), YPRR (2.61, and fantasy points per game (WR12). Nacua could access another level in his sophomore campaign if Matthew Stafford stays healthy and Kupp's powers diminish just a tiny bit more. Nacua could finish as a top-three option at the position this season if everything breaks his way.
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8.
Garrett Wilson
NYJ (vs . MIA)
Assuming Wilson stays healthy in 2024 (which I do), his ascension into the WR1 ranks is a foregone conclusion. Last year, he had no problem drawing the volume that will help him be a top 12 option, ranking ninth in target share (27.1%), first in air-yard share (45.8%), and fifth in first-read share (36.8%). The problem was obvious last year when there was no Aaron Rodgers. The quarterback play was abysmal. Last season, the Jets ranked 30th in adjusted completion rate and 27th in catchable target rate. With Rodgers back in the huddle, Wilson is an easy WR1 with top-five upside
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9.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
SF (at ARI)
Last year, Samuel bounced back after a down year as the WR12 in fantasy points per game. His dynamic playmaking ability and lucrative red zone role (14th in red zone targets) led to 12 total touchdowns (fourth-most). Samuel was the 49ers' go-to weapon against two-high coverages while also flashing strong overall efficiency numbers. Samuel was 14th in yards per route run and 30th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Samuel could easily finish as a WR1 again in 2024, but he's probably better viewed as a WR2.
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10.
Mike Evans
TB (vs . NO)
Mike Evans might be coming off his age-30 season, but he didn't display any falloff. He finished with the third-highest single season, receiving yardage total of his career while also spiking at least 12 touchdowns for the fifth time. Evans finished as the WR10 while ranking 15th in yards per route run, 17th in first-read share, and 19th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). We'll see if he can continue defying Father Time in 2024, but he should at least be considered a strong WR2 with WR1 upside.
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11.
Brandon Aiyuk
SF (at ARI)
Aiyuk was fantastic last season as the WR16 in fantasy, with career highs in yards per reception and receiving yards. He also crushed in deeper efficiency metrics, ranking third in YPRR and second in FD/RR. Aiyuk is a player where you're betting on talent and the complexion of the 49ers' offense changing to an extent depending on where you're drafting him. I don't want him to be my WR1 on teams, but as my WR2, I'm comfortable taking the swing. The worries with his profile are easy to see, starting with volume. As good as Aiyuk was last year, he still only ranked 30th in raw target volume with an astounding 105 targets. He also ranked only 44th in red zone targets and was the WR31 in expected fantasy points per game. There's risk here, but as Aiyuk displayed last year, there can be reward as well.
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12.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
ARI (vs . SF)
Harrison Jr.'s prospect profile speaks for itself. Over the last two years of college, he ranked fifth and seventh in YPRR and third and sixth in PFF receiving grade. He has the size and overall skillset to command alpha-level volume from the jump, and he'll have that opportunity in Arizona. Yes, he will have to contend with Trey McBride for the weekly team lead in targets, but after McBride, things get sparse quickly. Arizona still has Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson and added Zay Jones this offseason, but none of those players have proven they can consistently push for a 20% target share in the NFL. Harrison's draft stock is spicy, but he deserves it. Last year, Arizona tossed the rock 555 times; if Harrison can command a 25% target share (which is possible), he would be tied for 13th in raw target volume among wide receivers last year. Harrison could rank top 12 in targets among wideouts in his rookie season.
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13.
Chris Olave
NO (at TB)
Did Olave match last year's hype with his production? No. Did he woefully fail, and we should be worried about him in 2024? NOPE. Olave displayed growth with new career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game (14.5, WR19). Last year, among 81 qualifying receivers, Olave ranked 24th in YPRR and 16th in FD/RR. Olave had to deal with the ups and downs of Derek Carr last year, which smoothed out toward the end of the season with the Saints changing up the complexion of the passing offense, which should continue in 2024. Carr last year was tied to two outcomes. It was either wind-up and chuck it deep or check it down, as Carr ranked eighth in deep attempts while also having the sixth-highest check-down rate. In Weeks 1-12, New Orleans had the fifth-highest aDOT while ranking 14th in catchable target rate with the 16th-highest off-target rate. In Weeks 13-18, the Saints changed it up as their aDOT was the 11th-lowest, and the offense ranked first in catchable target rate with the lowest off-target rate. With Klint Kubiak now the offensive coordinator, we should expect this lower aDOT model to continue with more motion and YAC opportunities opening up for Olave. The needle is pointing up for 2024.
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14.
Nico Collins
HOU (at TEN)
Yes, Houston's target tree has another branch that didn't exist last year (Stefon Diggs). Is that worrisome for Collins? Sure, but this is a bet on talent. Drawing volume is a reflection of the talent that Collins has in spades. I'm not willing to back off drafting him and Tank Dell with the arrival of a veteran wide receiver that widely sunk fantasy teams down the stretch last year. In 2023, Collins ranked 12th in targets per route run, second in YPRR, seventh in receiving yards per game, and fifth in FD/RR. Everything in his profile suggests he is an alpha-level talent in the prime of his career, tied to one of the best young quarterbacks in the game.
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15.
DK Metcalf
SEA (at LAR)
Metcalf is another rock-solid pick in fantasy who hasn't finished outside the top 24 fantasy wideouts (WR22, WR24, WR20) in the last three years. Almost all of Metcalf's deeper metrics lived in the WR2 territory as he was 22nd in YPRR, 23rd in first read share, and 20th in FD/RR last season. Seattle's offense remains an enigma for 2024. Will they be run heavy at the behest of their defensive head coach? Will they grip it and rip it in the passing game under the direction of their offensive coordinator? It will be one of the fascinating things that we have to wait until the season to see play out. If Jaxon Smith-Njigba isn't up to the task of taking over as Metcalf's running mate with Tyler Lockett another year older, Metcalf could see a bump from his 20.7% target share last year (31st), which could vault him up the wide receiver leaderboard in 2024. Metcalf is a strong WR2 that still has some untapped upside. It's possible he will revisit his 2020 production (WR10) this year.
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16.
Davante Adams
LV (vs . LAC)
Last year was the first season since 2015 that Davante Adams didn't finish as a WR1 in fantasy. Adams checked in as the WR15 in fantasy, with pitiful quarterback play capping his ceiling. Last season, the Raiders signal-callers produced the sixth-lowest adjusted completion rate and the 12th-highest off-target rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Adams had no issue soaking up elite-level volume, ranking second in raw target volume (175) and target share (33.1%). He did the best he could, considering the situation surrounding him, ranking 26th in yards per route run and 17th in first downs per route run. Adams is a volume-driven WR2 at this juncture of his career, with the quarterback play likely still in the toilet for 2024.
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17.
Drake London
ATL (vs . CAR)
Arthur Smith is gone. It's time for London to fly. His upside this season is massive in what should be a revamped offensive approach with Kirk Cousins under center and Zac Robinson calling plays. Last year, London's numbers were passable but not amazing, as quarterback play held him in check. The Falcons' quarterbacks posted the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate and the third-lowest catchable target rate. London still posted 1.98 YPRR (32nd) while ranking 27th in FD/RR and top 25 in first read share (20th) and target share (25th). After reexamining his 2023 film, I do not doubt that the same player who posted monster numbers as a rookie is still here. London realizes his massive potential this year. Enjoy the breakout.
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18.
DJ Moore
CHI (at GB)
Moore finished 2023 with a career-best season across the board. He was the WR9 in fantasy points per game while setting new career highs in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points per game. Moore produced stellar per-route efficiency numbers, ranking 13th in yards per route run and 12th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). His efficiency could remain with Caleb Williams at the helm, but his volume stats could take a hit in 2024 with Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen added to the roster. Moore is a WR2 with a murky outlook as the passing game outlook is up in the air with a rookie quarterback and a flush receiving depth chart.
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19.
Jaylen Waddle
MIA (at NYJ)
Waddle had the worst season of his short career last year, finishing as the WR21 in fantasy. His high-leverage usage dried up as Tyreek Hill gobbled it all up. Waddle was outside the top 50 wide receivers in the NFL in deep targets (54th) and red zone looks (56th). Waddle was the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game. While all of those metrics don't paint a pretty picture, Waddle is still one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, and this remains a consolidated passing attack that will run through Hill and Waddle. Waddle ranked fifth in yards per route run and sixth in first downs per route run last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Bet on supremely talented players to bounce back. Always.
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20.
Amari Cooper
CLE (at BAL)
Cooper continues to chug along. Entering his age-30 season, he doesn't show any signs of slowing down. Last year, he finished as the WR17 in fantasy points per game while ranking 23rd in target share (22.1%), 13th in air-yard share (39%), and 12th in YPRR. While Deshaun Watson wasn't good last year, that didn't stop Cooper from excelling with Watson. In the five full games Watson played, Cooper averaged 96 receiving yards per game with 2.96 YPRR and 0.123 FD/RR. Over a full season, among 81 qualifying wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data), Cooper would have ranked fourth, fifth, and 10th in those statistical categories if he kept up that pace. Cooper is a fantastic value pick this year that has some juicy upside.
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21.
DeVonta Smith
PHI (vs . NYG)
Smith has been entrenched as a playmaking WR2 in fantasy football over the last two seasons (WR20, WR14). Smith should run it back again this year with similar production. Last year, he was 21st in receiving yards per game and 29th in first read share while some of his deeper metrics sagged. Smith saw his FD/RR ranking drop to 39th, and his YPRR sat at only 33rd (minimum 50 targets). While this is concerning, the talent didn't disappear for Smith. Philly's offense was broken last year as rudimentary play calling held the entire show back from its potential. Smith and Metcalf go in the same range of drafts, and each player feels like a safe bet with some upside in 2024.
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22.
Cooper Kupp
LAR (vs . SEA)
Kupp took a step back last year, and there's no denying it. Last year, he dealt with an ankle sprain and hamstring issues, which could be partially to blame, but at his advancing age (31 years old), it's no sure thing that he will reclaim all or any of his former glory in 2024. Does that mean it's time for Kupp to hang it up? No. Last year, in 12 games with him and Puka Nacua active, Kupp still commanded a 23.4% target share, produced 2.08 yards per route run, and was the WR23 in fantasy points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). Kupp could return WR2 value in 2024, but his days as a WR1 are likely over. Kupp is a player that my interest is lukewarm at best for 2024, but if I can get him as a WR3 for my fantasy teams, I'm more inclined to take the plunge in drafts.
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23.
George Pickens
PIT (vs . CIN)
Last season was a breakout campaign for George Pickens as the WR36 in fantasy points per game. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he ranked 20th in yards per route run and 44th in first downs per route run while drawing a 20.8% target share and a 39% air-yard share (per Fantasy Points Data). While all these numbers tickle the senses, his splits without Diontae Johnson on the field last year are even more enticing. In Weeks 2-5 without Johnson, his target share climbed to 27.1%, his air-yard share stood at a whopping 50.1%, and he was the WR16 in fantasy points per game. The quarterback play of Russell Wilson (or Justin Fields), along with the run-heavy nature of Arthur Smith, could limit his ceiling, especially in the volume department, but Pickens could outpace his WR3 expectation in 2024.
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24.
Tee Higgins
CIN (at PIT)
Tee Higgins is saddled up with Cincy for at least one more season. He should be locked into two wide receiver sets as one of Joe Burrow's go-to options in the passing attack. Over the last three years, Higgins has seen his production take a downturn. His yards per route run have dropped in each of the last three seasons, and his fantasy points per game have slipped from 15.7 to 13.1, finally cratering at 11.5 points per game last year. Last year, his peripheral efficiency metrics were in the WR3 territory as he ranked 38th in yards per route run and 32nd in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Some of this can be blamed on Burrow's injury and the downstep in quarterback play to Jake Browning, but the decline had already begun for him prior to last season. Higgins could be a WR2 this season, but he's best viewed as a WR2/3.
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25.
Tank Dell
HOU (at TEN)
Yes, Dell now has to contend with Stefon Diggs for targets, too, but we need to put respect on Dell's name and understand that he could still fight for the team lead in targets in 2024. Last year, in the seven full games that Dell and Nico Collins played together, Dell bested him in every meaningful category. Dell led the duo in target share (22.5 vs. 22.1%), air-yard share (35.9 vs. 25.3%), weighted opportunity (59.0 vs. 50.9), and fantasy points per game (18.7 vs. 18.1). Overall last year Dell posted monster numbers in YPRR (2.40) and FD/RR (0.115) ranking 16th and 14th in these statistics. His recovery from a broken fibula will be huge, but if he is still the same guy we saw in 2023, there's plenty of reason to invest heavily in him smashing in 2024.
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26.
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND (vs . JAC)
Pittman has proven to be one of the safest picks in fantasy drafts over the last three years, with WR14, WR21, and WR22 finishes. Despite catching passes from Gardner Minshew for most of the year, Pittman finished with his usual efficiency ranking 23rd in YPRR and 24th in FD/RR while gobbling up the volume (ninth in targets, fourth in target share). The Colts will remain a middling neutral pass rate team this year while pushing the pace envelope. Pittman should finish with another solid WR2 season, but he could offer more upside if he can ever break out with even reasonable touchdown numbers. Pittman hasn't had more than six receiving touchdowns over the last three years. He only spiked it four times last season despite ranking ninth in red zone targets. Pittman has a WR1 season in him, and I won't bet against him unleashing it in 2024.
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27.
Malik Nabers
NYG (at PHI)
While we might have worries about the landing spot, there are two undeniable facts here. Nabers is a stone-cold baller, and he will vacuum up all the targets he can handle in 2024. During his final year at LSU, Nabers ranked third in YPRR, first in PFF receiving grade, and fourth in missed tackles forced. Nabers is the clear WR1 for New York this season, and it's not particularly close. No Giants wide receiver managed over a 16.9% target share last year, so there's no one standing in Nabers' way of soaking up a 23-25% target share in his rookie season. The Giants threw the ball 518 times last year. If Nabers can earn a 25% target share and the Giants don't pass any more than they did last season, he will theoretically see 130 targets. That would have been tied for 19th in targets among wide receivers last season. I'm willing to invest in Nabers' talent, and I'm just praying that we get at least league-average quarterback play from Daniel Jones and company this season.
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28.
Stefon Diggs
HOU (at TEN)
We've seen Diggs fall off in the second half of seasons in two consecutive years. If one year wasn't enough to scare you off, then last year should have been. In the final seven games of 2022, Diggs only logged one 100-yard receiving game with 1.95 yards per route run. It was a similar, except an even more gruesome story in 2023. In Weeks 10-18 last year, Diggs finished as the WR45 or higher in weekly scoring only twice. During that stretch, he only had one game with more than 80 receiving yards while finishing as the WR52 in fantasy points per game. Moving from Josh Allen to C.J. Stroud is a push as far as arm talent. The problem for Diggs is that even if you want to excuse away the back halves of the last two years, he'll be challenged for targets by a strong trio of pass catchers in Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. I'll avoid Diggs in many drafts for the upside swing of Collins or the value play of Dell.
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29.
Zay Flowers
BAL (vs . CLE)
Flowers had his moments as a rookie. While he didn't live up to the preseason hype, it wasn't a dreadful rookie showing by any stretch, especially after Mark Andrews was out. Without Andrews, Flowers saw his first read share increase to 30.7%, and his FD/RR rate increased ever so slightly from 0.081 to 0.085. Flowers, during that stretch (eight games), earned six end zone targets, which was awesome compared to the single end zone target he saw in Weeks 1-10. With Odell Beckham Jr. gone in 2024, the Baltimore passing attack will further consolidate around Flowers and Andrews.
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30.
Christian Kirk
JAC (at IND)
Kirk will be the Jaguars' WR1 in 2024. He was on his way to a monstrous season before getting derailed by injury. In Weeks 2-12, Krik was the WR19 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.6% target share and 30.5% air-yard share, producing 2.31 YPRR and 0.101 FD/RR (per Fantasy Points Data). If he had kept up that pace for the full season, he would have ranked 22nd, 17th, and 22nd in those categories. His full season counting stat pace was 138 targets, 94 receptions, and 1,278 receiving yards. With Calvin Ridley gone, Kirk's biggest competition for targets is Evan Engram. Engram didn't break out last year until Kirk was out, so I doubt Engram is the clear option over Kirk entering 2024. Gabriel Davis is a proven role player, and Brian Thomas Jr. is a rookie who will face growing pains in the NFL. Look for Trevor Lawrence to feed Kirk this year as one of the best values in fantasy drafts.
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31.
Terry McLaurin
WAS (at DAL)
McLaurin is primed for a bounce-back season in 2024. Last year, Sam Howell and his putrid passing sunk McLaurin's season. McLaurin still led the team with a 20.4% target share, a 34.7% air-yard share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 25.4% first-read share. Don't forget that this is the same receiver that ranked 16th in YPRR (2.20) and 19th in FD/RR (0.104) in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). That talent didn't suddenly disappear. It was depressed by a quarterback last year that ranked 21st in CPOE and 25th in clean pocket passer rating. Last year, he was the WR34 in fantasy points per game and the WR21 in expected fantasy points per game. With Jayden Daniels under center, McLaurin could return to the WR2 ranks in 2024.
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32.
Jayden Reed
GB (vs . CHI)
Reed had a wonderful run out last year with ten total touchdowns (fifth-most) as the WR26 in fantasy points per game. It's going to be tough for him to reproduce those types of numbers again in 2024 unless he gets a bump in playing time and runs hot with high-leverage usage. Last year, Reed only saw a 17.6% target share (49th) and a 69.6% route participation (78th) while finishing as the WR43 in expected fantasy points per game. He did rank 21st in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets while also receiving a smattering of rushing work. With Green Bay utilizing 12 and 21 personnel at healthy rates and Reed locked into the slot role for 2024, his snap share is likely capped. I'll be below market consensus on Reed for 2024.
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33.
Calvin Ridley
TEN (vs . HOU)
Ridley disappointed plenty of Fantasy GMs last year (including myself) with his WR27 finish. It was an incredibly bad run out for a receiver who was also the WR14 in expected fantasy points per game. While his market share was fine (21.6% target share, 38% air-yard share), his efficiency was frightening. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers, he was 44th in yards per route run and 42nd in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). We'll see if he can bounce back this year, but I'm not expecting it with the downgrade from Trevor Lawrence to Will Levis in quarterback play. Ridley is a WR3/4.
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34.
Keenan Allen
CHI (at GB)
Allen enters a new offensive system while attempting to build rapport with his rookie quarterback. He could become a trusted weapon for Caleb Williams immediately, but with D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze also in town, his competition for targets just increased exponentially. Allen hasn't shown any falloff in his production or efficiency despite his advancing age. Last year, he was WR3 in fantasy points per game, second in target share (30.7%), and 11th in yards per route run and first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). It'll be tough for him to come close to reproducing any of those numbers in 2024, but Allen should remain a solid WR2/3 for fantasy.
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35.
Diontae Johnson
CAR (at ATL)
Earning volume is a skill. It's a reflection of talent, and few do that better than Johnson year after year. Once he returned from injury in Week 7, he continued to gobble up targets like usual, ranking 14th in target share (23.7%), sixth in air-yard share (41.6%), and 20th in FD/RR (0.109). In that span, he was the WR33 in fantasy points per game. Johnson should have no issues earning similar volume this season in Carolina, flanked by Adam Thielen and Xavier Legette. Look for Bryce Young to pepper his new WR1. Johnson is a WR3/4 that could easily post WR2 production in 2024.
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36.
Chris Godwin
TB (vs . NO)
Last year, Chris Godwin finished as the WR34 in fantasy points per game, which was his lowest finish in fantasy since 2018. His season was a letdown, but there's hope that a big bounce back is coming in 2024, especially if he continues the pace he was on to close last year. In Weeks 1-13, Godwin was the WR45 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 20.4% target share while producing 50.5 receiving yards per game, 1.62 yards per route run, and 0.088 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). After Week 13, he turned up the heat, closing the season as the WR16 in fantasy points per game with a 28.7% target share, 83.6 receiving yards per game, 2.79 yards per route run, and 0.133 first downs per route run. This coincided with his slot rate bumping up from 36.1% to 44%. The Bucs have talked about Godwin moving from the perimeter in 2024 and back into his familiar slot role, which would be amazing for his production and 2024 outlook. Godwin looks like an incredible value in drafts.
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37.
Hollywood Brown
KC (at DEN)
At this stage of his career, I don't know if Brown can be counted on for a full complement of games. He's only managed more than 14 games played once in his career. He has a long track record of food issues dating back to even the pre-draft process when he was entering the NFL. Even if we want to move past those worrisome question marks, Brown has seen his yards per route run fall in each of the last four seasons. Last season, among 81 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 62nd in yards per route run and 48th in first downs per route run. I'll happily draft all of the other main cogs in the Kansas City passing offense this season, ie. Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, or Rashee Rice, but I'm avoiding Brown in most of my drafts this season. As a weekly WR3/4 or flex play, he's fine, but I'm not counting on him as anything more than that at this point.
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38.
Christian Watson
GB (vs . CHI)
I hate to break it to the Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed hives, but when Watson was on the field last year, he remained the Packer's WR1. In Weeks 5-13, Watson led the team in target share (17.7%), air-yard share (36.7%), YPRR (1.79), end zone targets (14), first-read share (22.3%), and FD/RR (0.081). Hamstring woes have plagued Watson for the last two years, but Green Bay investigated further into it this offseason with the hopes of getting their stud third-year wide receiver right for 2024. If Watson can finally enjoy a fully healthy season, he can fulfill the potential we have seen in spurts over the last two seasons.
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39.
DeAndre Hopkins
TEN (vs . HOU)
Hopkins was the WR29 in fantasy points per game last season, drawing a 26.9% target share and 43.6% air-yard share. His numbers looked even better with Will Levis under center (Weeks 8-15), as he saw a 26.9% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, and produced 2.40 yards per route run as the WR18 in fantasy points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). We'll see what a full season of the Levis experiment brings for Hopkins, but the addition of Calvin Ridley to the offense will likely bring his market share numbers down a smidge. Hopkins should still be sniffing around the WR3 production area code and be a decent flex play this season.
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40.
Rashee Rice
KC (at DEN)
We'll see how long Rice is suspended for and where his ADP settles in at, but he is likely a strong value for 2024. Every year, we have to navigate these suspension waters for some players. His ADP could also vary widely from league to league. With that in mind, I'm more likely to take the leap and select Rice in leagues where he slips down the board, or I'm looking to "play catch up some" at wide receiver, depending on how my draft has unfolded. The additions of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown to this passing attack have also muddied the waters for Rice. All of this uncertainty will make drafters wary of pressing the button, but the risk will be built into his ADP. While we can debate all of those factors, we can't debate that Rice is a supremely talented player catching passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In Weeks 12-18, Rice ranked 12th in target share (25.2%), 10th in YPRR (2.77) and FD/RR (0.123), and ninth in fantasy points per route run (0.60). Buy the dip.
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41.
Jordan Addison
MIN (at DET)
Addison's WR30 finish last year in fantasy points per game won't be replicable in 2024 unless he cures a BUNCH of massive red flags in his profile. His insane touchdown luck inflated his rookie season. He was 15th in end zone targets last year and ran hot with the fourth-most receiving touchdowns among wide receivers behind only Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb. All of his other metrics were in the toilet. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he ranked 46th in target share, 59th in targets per route run, 51st in yards per route run, and 58th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Touchdowns are flukey. Everything points to Addison being a bust in 2024, so I'll be happily avoiding him. This is without equating any time he might miss related to a possible suspension for his off-the-field news.
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42.
Xavier Worthy
KC (at DEN)
A wide receiver drafted in the first round landing in Kansas City? Yes, please. Worthy has blinding speed and the ability to create big plays with the ball in his hands. In two of his final three collegiate seasons, he ranked inside the top 27 collegiate receivers in yards after the catch per reception (27th, 8th). Worthy was also in the 90th percentile in his final season at Texas in separation percentage. Hollywood Brown isn't a sure thing at this point in his career to stay healthy for an entire season. Rashee Rice has suspension questions looming. This offense, at some point this season, could boil down to Worthy and Travis Kelce as Patrick Mahomes' top two targets.
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43.
Courtland Sutton
DEN (vs . KC)
Sutton returns as the defacto WR1 for the Denver Broncos. Last year, he was the WR38 in fantasy points per game, which was largely fueled by touchdowns. Sutton had the 12th-most red zone targets, which he turned into the 10th-most total touchdowns among receivers. The rest of his peripherals were lackluster, as he ranked 39th in target share, 37th in yards per route run, 44th in receiving yards per game, and 38th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). At this point in his career, we know who Sutton is, and I don't see Bo Nix elevating him. Sutton is an uninspiring WR4 again this season.
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44.
Rome Odunze
CHI (at GB)
No one should question Odunze's talent. In his final season in college, Odunze ranked 18th in YPRR and 8th in PFF receiving grade. It is fair to wonder about his ability to earn targets in year one, as D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen will flank him. There are reasons to be hopeful for Odunze, though. Unlike Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year, Odunze can still have splash weeks this year because of his ability to stretch the field, as his 15.5 aDOT in 2023 attests, so he can maximize some lost volume with big plays. The volume of this passing attack could surprise us as well, though. In 2021-2023, under new Bears' offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Seattle ranked seventh in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate. If the passing volume shocks the world and/or Keenan Allen or D.J. Moore misses any time, Odunze could outplay his ADP.
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45.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA (at LAR)
Smith-Njigba's usage last year was comical. The team neutered him into a low aDOT player when he has the skills to be so much more. When he was aligned outside, he flashed the talent that had plenty of Fantasy GMs drafting him aggressively last year. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers last season, when he was running routes on the perimeter, Smith-Njigba ranked 15th in YPRR and fourth in TPRR. Among 61 qualifying receivers with at least 40 perimeter targets, he also ranked 14th in FD/RR. With a new head coach and offensive coordinator to revamp this offense and a retooled offensive line, Smith-Njigba should flourish in his sophomore season.
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46.
Jameson Williams
DET (vs . MIN)
The runway is clear for Jameson Williams to break out this year, but call me skeptical. I just don't know if it happens, considering what we've seen from him so far in his career. Last year he only managed to surpass 60% of the snaps in four games with only three games with at least six or more targets. Among 93 qualifying receivers last season, Williams was 62nd in target per route run rate, 55th in yards per route run, and 70th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). None of these numbers paint a pretty picture for an illustrious monster season in 2024, but that doesn't mean that Williams can't offer spike week upside as a WR5/6 for your fantasy squads.
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47.
Ladd McConkey
LAC (at LV)
McConkey could become the Bolts' WR1 in short order. McConkey has a clear path to volume this year, with only Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston pushing him weekly. Is the passing volume in a Greg Roman offense a concern? Absolutely, but that's why his ADP is this low. During Roman's final four seasons with Baltimore, his offenses averaged 496 passing attempts. If McConkey can earn at least a 21% target share, then we're talking 102 targets, which might not sound like much, but that would have been tied for 32nd among wide receivers last season. There's plenty of upside for McConkey to earn an even larger slice of the target pie in 2024, considering the other pass catchers that are running opposite him and his inherent talent level. Last year at Georgia, McConkey was in the 98th percentile in receiving grade and receiving grade versus single coverage. He was also in the 91st percentile or higher in separation percentage and YPRR. If the Bolts' throw even more than I'm projecting, McConkey could be one of the best values of the fantasy draft season.
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48.
Brian Thomas Jr.
JAC (at IND)
Thomas Jr. had a monster final season at LSU before entering the NFL. He ranked 32nd in yards per route run, with big plays deep down the field littering his collegiate film. The problem for Thomas Jr. is that at this juncture, he is a more limited player in terms of route tree and projectable role in the NFL. He was a fade-and-go ball specialist at LSU. While he could easily evolve into more in the NFL, it's going to take him a while to do so. Expect the Jaguars to ease Thomas Jr. in as a deep threat as he fights Gabe Davis for those downfield targets. If Jacksonville tasks him with responsibilities similar to D.K. Metcalf in his rookie season, it could be a smashing success. Thomas Jr. is a dice roll WR4/5 with upside for this season.
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49.
Tyler Lockett
SEA (at LAR)
Lockett has begun to slow down. Last year, he continued a downward trend, with his yards per route run dropping for the third consecutive year and marking his lowest since 2017 (per PFF). He also logged the lowest yards after the catch per reception of his entire career. Last year, he managed a WR37 finish in fantasy points per game while ranking 40th in receiving yards per game and 36th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Lockett might have one more WR3 season left in him, but with Jaxon Smith-Njigba primed to break out, it's better to consider Lockett a WR4/5.
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50.
Rashid Shaheed
NO (at TB)
Shaheed is a big play threat that will receive a bump in volume this season with Michael Thomas gone. Last year, Shaheed finished as the WR45 in fantasy points per game with five weeks of top-24 fantasy receiver production. He was the lid lifter, ranking 10th in aDOT and 15th in deep targets. Look for him to get more looks in the short and intermediate areas of the field for YAC opportunities with Klint Kubiak in town. Last year, he drew a 13.6% target share and 23.5% air-yard share while ranking 43rd in yards per route run and 45th in receiving yards per game out of 81 qualifying receivers (per Fantasy Points Data). Shaheed is a WR4 that could offer consistent WR3 production this year.
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51.
Keon Coleman
BUF (at NE)
The Bills are building a basketball team. Each receiver depth chart has a mishmash of skill sets that offensive coordinators and quarterbacks can take advantage of in particular roles. The Bills drafted their power forward and red zone threat with the selection of Keon Coleman. I wasn't particularly high on Coleman as a prospect, as he never ranked higher than 72nd in yards per route run, receiving grade, or yards after the catch per reception in his final two seasons in college. I don't know if he'll ever develop into a refined route runner or high-end target share earner, but that doesn't mean he can't use size to his advantage in the red zone this year with Allen. Coleman is a solid late-round flier who could develop into more this year.
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52.
Jakobi Meyers
LV (vs . LAC)
Last year, Jakobi Meyers surprised everyone as the WR24 in fantasy points per game. He was fueled by touchdowns with the fifth-most among wide receivers, but he also drew a 19.9% target share and 25.9% air-yard share. Dealing with subpar quarterback play all season, he only ranked 48th in yards per route run but was also 29th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). With the quarterback play not looking any better for 2024 for Las Vegas and now Meyers dealing with Brock Bowers for the WR2 weekly, it's best to view him as a flex play or WR4/5.
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53.
Mike Williams
NYJ (vs . MIA)
Mike Williams was signed to a one-year deal worth $15 million by Gang Green, but he's going to be 30 years old in October, coming off a Week 3 torn ACL.
FWIW, Big Mike was extremely productive before he got hurt. The former Chargers WR ranked as WR15 overall and WR17 in points per game. Williams can at least slide in as the immediate No. 2 WR behind Garrett Wilson in an offense that will likely get improved QB play from Aaron Rodgers. |
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54.
Brandin Cooks
DAL (vs . WAS)
Cook is on the back nine of his career and appears to be slowing down after a WR43 finish last year. Even after Dak Prescott flipped the switch, Cooks wasn't a player to get overly excited about for fantasy football. In Weeks 6-18 last year, among 83 qualifying receivers, Cooks ranked 45th in receiving yards per game, 61st in target share, 57th in yards per route run, and 44th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Cooks should be a WR4/5 again this season.
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55.
Curtis Samuel
BUF (at NE)
The last time we saw Curtis Samuel in a Joe Brady offense, he finished as the WR27 in fantasy points per game with 1,051 total yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns. While I don't think we see that type of resurgence from Samuel, he could surpass his WR48 standing last year, catching passes from Josh Allen. Last year, Samuel only managed a 14.7% target share with a 7.1 aDOT and 1.60 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Samuel is a WR5/6 who could evolve into a steady flex play this season if he recaptures some of his former magic.
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56.
Romeo Doubs
GB (vs . CHI)
Romeo Doubs showcased improvement in his 2nd season, becoming a consistent target in their passing game. With 69 receptions on 105 targets for 908 yards and 9 touchdowns, he proved to be a valuable asset, particularly in the red zone. However, Doubs fell short of maximizing his potential within the offense, scoring fewer points than his expected output, creating doubt about his 2024 ceiling. Despite this, his performance solidified him as a reliable WR4 option in fantasy leagues.
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57.
Joshua Palmer
LAC (at LV)
I know this won't be a popular opinion, but I like Palmer's prospects of leading the team in every meaningful receiving stat over Ladd McConkey. Last year, Palmer opened my eyes in the seven games he played without Mike Williams. In those contests, he garnered an 18.9% target share with a 31.4% air-yard share, producing 2.19 yards per route run and 71.1 receiving yards per game. Palmer is a fantastic pick in the later rounds with upside this season.
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58.
Gabe Davis
JAC (at IND)
At this point in his career, we know who Gabriel Davis is. A field stretcher who can pop off for massive spike weeks at any time. Last year, Davis ranked 15th in deep targets and 18th in total touchdowns, but he still finished as the WR50 in fantasy points per game. He has shown the ability to be a WR3 in fantasy, with his WR36 finish the year prior, but it's tough to project him to revisit that status. We can argue that Davis gets a small upgrade from Josh Allen to Trevor Lawrence in terms of the deep ball. Last year, Allen ranked 12th, followed by Lawrence at 13th in highly accurate throw rate on targets of 20 yards or deeper, but Lawrence buried Allen in catchable target rate on deep balls, ranking 12th while Allen checked in at 21st. Davis is a WR4/5 that could win you some weeks from the flex.
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59.
Jerry Jeudy
CLE (at BAL)
Jerry Jeudy secured 54 receptions for 758 receiving yards in the 2023 season with the Broncos. Despite his yardage production, Jeudy struggled to find the end zone, recording only two touchdowns throughout the year. His fantasy performance landed him as the WR50 overall, emphasizing the need for improved quarterback play in his first season with the Browns to elevate his fantasy value beyond the WR3 tier. Based on the contract Jeudy signed - 3-years and $52.5 million - it's his job to lose as the WR2 versus Elijah Moore.
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60.
Khalil Shakir
BUF (at NE)
After Week 7 last year, Shakir logged nine games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps. In those contests, he posted a strong 2.18 yards per route run with 0.085 first downs per route run, but he only managed to cultivate an 11% target share and 12% air-yard share (per Fantasy Points Data). In that stretch among 84 qualifying receivers, he was 42nd in fantasy points per game. The Bills need someone to step up among these pass catchers and lead the way, but it's likely not Shakir unless he somehow becomes a higher-end target earner. Sharkir is a WR5/6 in 2024.
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61.
Josh Downs
IND (vs . JAC)
Before spraining his knee in Week 9, Downs was on his way to a wonderful rookie season. In Weeks 1-8, he was the WR36 in fantasy points per game with an 18.9% target share and 2.0 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Downs has more target competition this year, with the team adding Adonai Mitchell, who is a sizable upgrade over Alec Pierce. Indy will likely be a middle-of-the-road passing rate team that looks to run the ball once in the red zone. Downs' upside is likely capped as a WR5 in fantasy this season.
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62.
Jahan Dotson
WAS (at DAL)
Jahan Dotson's 2023 season was disappointing after a promising rookie campaign, characterized by inefficiency in a pass-heavy Commanders offense. However, Curtis Samuel's departure to the Bills opens up opportunities for Dotson to rebound in Year 3. Despite his struggles, Dotson showed flashes of potential in games where Samuel was absent or limited, posting strong numbers. With the Commanders' passing game relying heavily on volume over efficiency, Dotson, along with teammate Terry McLaurin, will depend on improved quarterback play from Jayden Daniels to elevate their fantasy value. Dotson's red-zone involvement in 2023 signals his potential for increased scoring opportunities with better quarterback performance.
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63.
Dontayvion Wicks
GB (vs . CHI)
Have you heard about Dontayvion Wicks? If you have any social media app and follow fantasy football content creators...I'm sure you have. Wicks has been discussed a ton this offseason because of his per-route efficiency in 2023. Among 81 qualifying receivers last year, he was 37th in target per route run rate, 17th in yards per route run, and 13th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). The problem for Wicks is that Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs on the outside block his path to playing time. In Weeks 5-13 last season, with Watson healthy, Wicks was fourth on the team with only a 30.3% route per dropback rate. As talented as Wicks is, he needs snaps and routes to score fantasy points, and I don't know if he will get more playing time in 2024 if Green Bay's receiving depth chart remains healthy. He's only a late-round dart throw right now with upside for much more if injuries strike.
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64.
Adonai Mitchell
IND (vs . JAC)
Adonai Mitchell had a standout season with the Texas Longhorns, achieving a 32% dominator rating with 11 touchdowns from 55 receptions. Standing at 6'2" and weighing 205 pounds, his physique is well-suited for an outside receiver role. While he boasts the physical tools and deep threat potential akin to D.J. Chark Jr. or Alec Pierce, Mitchell enters a situation where he may play third fiddle behind Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. This could limit his weekly fantasy production, although his knack for big plays makes him a worthy consideration in best-ball formats, offering occasional high-scoring outings.
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65.
Adam Thielen
CAR (at ATL)
Adam Thielen's 2023 season provided the full-body experience of an older veteran WR with zero competition for targets. He started out of the gates red hot, as the WR11 overall through 11 weeks, scoring fantasy points per game at a top-15 rate at 13.7. But alas the 33-year-old could not continue his production with shoddy QB play from his rookie QB. WR51 from Weeks 12-18. Woof. With 103 receptions (10th) on 137 targets (25% target share, 14th), Thielen racked up 1,014 receiving yards, averaging 9.8 yards per reception, and notched 4 touchdown receptions running the 5th-most routes in the NFL. He ended the season with a 10.6 points per game average, securing him as the 25th overall wide receiver in half-PPR scoring. WR31 per game. He's under contract until 2026 and will be entering the offseason as the Panthers' No. 1 WR until they add more WRs in the draft/free agency - the latter of which will likely happen based on the Panthers' interest before this past year's trade deadline.
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66.
Michael Wilson
ARI (vs . SF)
The highlight of Week 18? Rookie Michael Wilson.
6 targets (21% target share) and 6 receptions for 95 yards. 68 air yards and 40% air yards share. The rookie posted a very under-the-radar campaign as a highly involved Cardinals WR. He ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks (35th among all WRs) which locks him into a full-time role in this offense next season, as long as he can fend off Zay Jones. Wilson also finished his season on a high note, averaging 15.5 points per game after his last two contests with Marquise Brown out. |
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67.
Darnell Mooney
ATL (vs . CAR)
Darnell Mooney's potential as a FA steal in the upcoming season is evident despite a challenging and injury-marred previous campaign. His track record of commanding a significant target share of 27%, especially during his standout performances in 2021-2022, underscores his ability to thrive in an offense. With a clear path to the WR2 role in Atlanta's receiving corps, Mooney could emerge as a valuable asset, particularly in a case of an injury. Coupled with his impressive yards after the catch per reception, Mooney's presence adds depth and reliability to the upgraded Falcons' passing game.
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68.
DeMario Douglas
NE (vs . BUF)
The Patriots' wide receiver depth chart is wide open. Douglas's path to leading the team in targets this year is clear. Regardless of whether Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett is under center, this offense has the chance to surprise people. Last year, in the eight games Douglas played at least 50% of the snaps, he commanded a team-leading 20.8% target share and 24.4% first read share. He was a WR3 or better in weekly fantasy scoring in five of those eight games. Douglas could be a strong weekly flex in 2024.
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69.
Quentin Johnston
LAC (at LV)
Quentin Johnston's rookie season left much to be desired, with disappointing production. Despite the Chargers' offseason moves opening up opportunities, including the departure of key receivers, Johnston failed to capitalize on his chances. With Ladd McConkey drafted early, Johnston's future role in the offense becomes uncertain. While it may be premature to label him a bust after just one season, his lack of impact in Year 1 (61st among 63 qualifying WRs in yards per route run) raises red flags for his fantasy value moving forward.
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70.
Rashod Bateman
BAL (vs . CLE)
The Baltimore Ravens signed wide receiver Rashod Bateman to a 2-year contract through the 2026 season. Ravens OC Todd Monken says he's seen "tremendous growth" from WR Bateman and expects him to receive the ball a lot this season per Ryan Mink, Editorial Director for the Ravens.
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71.
Marvin Mims Jr.
DEN (vs . KC)
Marvin Mims Jr., the second-year wideout for the Broncos, stands to benefit from the departure of Jerry Jeudy, which opens up more playing time and opportunities for him in the offense. Despite limited playing time in his rookie year, Mims showed flashes of potential, including a couple of impressive performances early in the season. However, his development was hindered by redundancy in roles with Jeudy and depth at the WR position. While there's optimism for Mims to step up in his 2nd season, the recent drafting of Troy Franklin with an overlapping skillset could potentially complicate his path to a significant role in the offense.
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72.
Xavier Legette
CAR (at ATL)
Xavier Legette, a standout receiver from South Carolina, showcased his skills with exceptional performances, notably in his super senior year. At 6'3" and 227 lbs, his size and athleticism make him ideal for an outside receiver role. With strong hands and the ability to secure catches in traffic, he's reliable even without relying on his body. Despite concerns about consistency as a one-year wonder entering the NFL at 23, his physical traits resemble players like D.K. Metcalf, hinting at his potential. Drafted in the first round by the Carolina Panthers, his success may hinge on how well he's utilized in their scheme under new HC Dave Canales.
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73.
Ja'Lynn Polk
NE (vs . BUF)
After overcoming an injury in his sophomore year, Ja'Lynn Polk delivered a stellar senior season with 69 receptions for 1,159 yards and nine touchdowns. Known for his quickness, strong hands, and excellent body control, Polk consistently makes difficult catches in traffic, showcasing his well-rounded skills. Drawing comparisons to NFL players like Mohamed Sanu, Tyler Boyd, and Joshua Palmer, Polk is considered a safe, reliable receiver. Selected in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft by the Patriots, he is poised to become a dependable part of their passing game.
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74.
Wan'Dale Robinson
NYG (at PHI)
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75.
Jermaine Burton
CIN (at PIT)
Burton has a clear path to volume behind Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. He should be starting three wide sets from Day 1. Tyler Boyd has been a descending player for the last few seasons, and even as the team's third wheel, he drew between 83 and 98 targets per season. Burton could push for 100-plus in his rookie season. The passing volume should be there, as Cincinnati was third in neutral passing rate last year when Joe Burrow was healthy and looking like his usual self. Off-the-field issues are the only reason that Burton was available when the Bengals selected him in the NFL Draft. Based on talent alone, he should have been at least a second-round pick and could have honestly pushed for a first-round selection. In his final season at Alabama, Burton was in the 90th percentile against single coverage and 82nd percentile in YPRR. If Tee Higgins gets moved prior to Week 1 or holds out, Burton's stock will soar through the roof.
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76.
Ricky Pearsall
SF (at ARI)
Pearsall Jr. could easily get squeezed for playing time and volume in year one, but he's one injury or Deebo Samuel trade away from being an exquisite value. Pearsall Jr. became one of my favorite players during the NFL Draft cycle. His film was fantastic as he oozes high-end route running prowess with the athleticism to stretch the field. In his final season at Florida, he finished in the 89th percentile in receiving grade, the 91st percentile in receiving grade against single coverage, and the 90th percentile in separation percentage. Pearsall Jr. could be a player that is dropped to waivers by Week 4, but the upside is there for him to absolutely crush as well in his rookie season.
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77.
Troy Franklin
DEN (vs . KC)
Troy Franklin capped his junior year at Oregon with nearly 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns, showcasing his deep-threat capabilities with a 29% dominator rating. Despite concerns about his slender frame at 6-foot-3 and 183 lbs, his rumored 4.35-second 40-yard dash underscores his potential as a top-tier receiver and early breakout age. Drafted early in Round 4 by the Broncos after a disappointing combine, Franklin finds a favorable situation under Sean Payton, who has a history of trading up for wide receivers. Positioned to play the "Z" role previously held by Jerry Jeudy, Franklin's existing chemistry with Broncos QB Bo Nix, his former college teammate, could enhance his opportunity to make an immediate impact.
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78.
Demarcus Robinson
LAR (vs . SEA)
It's like everyone is forgetting what Robinson did to close the 2023 season with Los Angeles. In Weeks 13-18, he went on a tear ranking (among 109 qualifying receivers), 36th in YPRR, 28th in FD/RR, and 26th in fantasy points per route run. In those six weeks, Robinson was the WR31 in fantasy points per game. Robinson is the perfect veteran receiver to pair with a high-upside rookie late. Robinson could be a strong weekly flex play from the outset before relinquishing his fantasy lineup duties mid-season to a stretch run rookie hammer.
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79.
Roman Wilson
PIT (vs . CIN)
Roman Wilson showed promise with 48 receptions for 789 yards and 12 touchdowns in his standout senior year at Michigan (37% dominator, 6th-highest in the class). However, concerns arise due to his late breakout age at 22 and limited overall production. With the Steelers likely maintaining a run-heavy offense under OC Arthur Smith and Wilson's role as a deep threat in college, the 2024 third-round draft pick's fantasy impact could be limited despite Pittsburgh's history of success with mid-round WR selections.
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80.
Elijah Moore
CLE (at BAL)
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81.
Jalin Hyatt
NYG (at PHI)
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82.
Darius Slayton
NYG (at PHI)
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83.
Javon Baker
NE (vs . BUF)
Javon Baker's path to the NFL took a significant turn when he transferred from Alabama to UCF, where he excelled with impressive dominator ratings in his final two seasons. Standing at 6-foot-1 and 202 pounds, Baker's skill set as a big-play threat was evident, highlighted by his high average yards per reception and yards after catch ability. Often compared to DeVonta Smith, Baker brings added size and route-running prowess to the table. Drafted by the Patriots in the fourth round, he joins a team with a relatively thin receiver depth chart, offering him ample opportunity to shine. Despite being chosen after Ja'Lynn Polk, Baker's consistent ability to make plays downfield suggests a high ceiling and the potential to emerge as a key figure in New England's passing game.
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84.
Malachi Corley
NYJ (vs . MIA)
Malachi Corley demonstrated consistent productivity at Western Kentucky, particularly excelling in creating yards after the catch. Despite his smaller stature, his thick frame allowed him to navigate through defenses effectively. However, concerns arise regarding his play style being more akin to a running back than a traditional receiver. Coupled with doubts about the Jets' offensive creativity, Corley's potential may be limited in their system. Despite being a third-round pick, I'd exercise caution in investing in him for fantasy purposes.
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85.
Tyler Boyd
TEN (vs . HOU)
Tyler Boyd had 67 receptions on 98 targets, totaling 667 receiving yards at an average of 10 yards per catch, with a long catch of 64 yards. Boyd found the end zone twice. Over 17 games, Boyd earned 112.3 fantasy points, averaging 6.6 points per game as the WR64 in points per game. He will likely be a nice depth piece for the Titans in 2024, and possibly provide some early in-season production as he turns 30 years old.
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86.
Kendrick Bourne
NE (vs . BUF)
The Patriots re-signed Kendrick Bourne to a 3-year, $19.5 million contract. He will be 29 years old in 2024, coming off a Week 8 torn ACL injury. Before his injury, Bourne was the fantasy WR28 averaging 10.2 points per game in half-PPR (38th). Led the Patriots with a 19.4% target share with a 28% air yards share. He will likely be in the starter's chair until a rookie or younger WR usurps him on the depth chart.
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87.
Rondale Moore
ATL (vs . CAR)
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88.
A.T. Perry
NO (at TB)
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89.
Zay Jones
ARI (vs . SF)
Zay Jones' 2023 season was marred by injuries, limiting his impact to just 34 receptions for 321 yards and 2 touchdowns in 9 games. Despite the challenges, his performance in the final four games hinted at his potential when healthy, averaging 8 fantasy points and just south of 10 targets/game. His signing with the Arizona Cardinals after being released presents a fresh opportunity, and if he can maintain his health, he could become a valuable asset in their offense as No. 3 option.
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90.
Odell Beckham Jr.
MIA (at NYJ)
Odell Beckham Jr.'s tenure with the Ravens in 2023 didn't meet expectations, but he showed flashes of his former self, particularly in the second half of the season. Despite turning 31, he maintained his ability as a deep threat, ranking highly in average depth of target and PFF receiving grade. His signing with the Dolphins on a one-year deal provides him with a fresh start and the opportunity to contribute in a potentially more favorable offensive environment. While he may not be the fantasy star he once was, he still holds value as a matchup-dependent option or in case of injuries to Miami's receiving corps.
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91.
DJ Chark Jr.
LAC (at LV)
The 27-year-old is hitting free agency (again) after playing a complimentary role with the Panthers in 2023. Chark caught a long pass that was initially ruled a TD in Week 18, but it was overturned to a fumble through the end zone. Woof. He is a free agent in 2024 and will likely land on a new team as a complimentary deep threat who misses games with injuries.
Chark was the WR58 overall in 2023, averaging 6.5 points per game (65th). He led the Panthers in TDs (5) and posted over 1,000 air yards on a team-high 31% air yards share (33rd). No player had more air yards with fewer targets (66) than Chark despite two missed games. D.J. Chark signed with the Chargers after the NFL Draft to a one-year deal worth $5 million. |
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92.
Treylon Burks
TEN (vs . HOU)
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93.
Jalen McMillan
TB (vs . NO)
Jalen McMillan's trajectory from his breakout season at Washington to his selection by the Buccaneers in the third round underscores his potential as a promising NFL receiver. Despite facing challenges like injuries and reduced opportunities in his final collegiate year, McMillan's strong route-running skills and experience in the slot position position him well for success at the professional level. He led the Washington Huskies in targets and catches in 2022 despite playing with future 1st and 2nd round picks.
With a clear path to the WR3 role in Tampa Bay's offense and the possibility of further advancement to WR2 in the coming seasons, McMillan's combination of talent and opportunity could make him a valuable asset. |
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94.
Devontez Walker
BAL (vs . CLE)
Devontez Walker's college career showcased his explosiveness and knack for making big plays, especially evident in his remarkable dominator rating at Kent State. Despite his impressive physical attributes and speed, Walker's limitations in generating yards after the catch are notable. Drawing comparisons to Marvin Jones, he presents significant upside but also carries a boom-or-bust label, highly dependent on his landing spot for optimal performance. Joining the Ravens in the fourth round offers him the opportunity to work with Lamar Jackson, but he faces competition for targets in a crowded receiving corps led by Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. Walker's success in the NFL may hinge on his ability to carve out a role in a balanced offensive scheme.
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95.
Josh Reynolds
DEN (vs . KC)
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96.
Trey Palmer
TB (vs . NO)
|
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97.
Jonathan Mingo
CAR (at ATL)
|
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98.
Alec Pierce
IND (vs . JAC)
|
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99.
Cedric Tillman
CLE (at BAL)
|
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100.
Andrei Iosivas
CIN (at PIT)
|
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101.
K.J. Osborn
NE (vs . BUF)
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102.
Kadarius Toney
KC (at DEN)
|
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103.
Noah Brown
HOU (at TEN)
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104.
Luke McCaffrey
WAS (at DAL)
Another NFL Draft cycle crush has crept into redraft season, with McCaffrey making this list. McCaffrey crushed every part of the process. He flashed big time at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, and then he opened a ton of eyes during his athletic testing. Despite his last name, I don't think many people were expecting him to walk away with a 4.46 forty time and a 96th percentile agility score. Don't be blown away when McCaffrey is starting in two wide receiver sets over Jahan Dotson. McCaffrey is still honing his game, especially against man coverage, but he already has a good feel for and understanding of how to beat zone coverage. In a league where every team utilizes zone coverage on at least 54.5% of their defensive snaps and 23 teams run it on at least 66% of their snaps, McCaffrey should be able to hit the ground running. Last year against zone among 111 qualifying FBS wide receivers, he ranked sixth in receiving grade and 28th in YPRR against zone. McCaffrey is a magnificent dart to toss in as many drafts as possible.
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105.
Brenden Rice
LAC (at LV)
Brenden Rice brings a compelling combination of size, athleticism, and football pedigree to the wide receiver position, standing out with his 6'3" frame and impressive physical presence. While his collegiate journey included a breakout season at Colorado and a productive senior year at USC, his final season dominator rating fell slightly below expectations. Nevertheless, Rice's ability to make an impact in the red zone and his proficiency in catching touchdowns highlight his potential as a scoring threat at the next level. His comparison to Josh Palmer underscores the importance of his quarterback and offensive situation in maximizing his impact on the field. Joining the Chargers in the seventh round presents Rice with an opportunity to continue his development and carve out a role in their offense.
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106.
Tyler Scott
CHI (at GB)
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107.
Robert Woods
HOU (at TEN)
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108.
Jacob Cowing
SF (at ARI)
Jacob Cowing, though lacking in size at under 5-foot-9 and 168 pounds, compensates with exceptional speed, agility, and precise route-running, making him a constant threat on the field. With a career dominator rating of 32%, Cowing's dominance at Arizona and UTEP is undeniable, highlighted by elite single-season marks of 42% and 41% in 2020 and 2021 respectively. Despite concerns about his size, his senior year showcased his ability to stretch the field and create after the catch, amassing 89 receptions for 868 yards and 13 touchdowns. While a Senior Bowl injury may have dampened his stock, Cowing's K.J. Hamler-esque profile and sub-4.4 speed make him an intriguing prospect, particularly in a Kyle Shanahan-style offense like the one in San Francisco, where undersized receivers have thrived before.
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109.
Michael Thomas
FA (BYE)
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110.
Greg Dortch
ARI (vs . SF)
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111.
Jalen Tolbert
DAL (vs . WAS)
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112.
Tutu Atwell
LAR (vs . SEA)
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113.
Michael Gallup
FA (BYE)
Signed with the Raiders in free agency after being released by the Dallas Cowboys.
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114.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
BUF (at NE)
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115.
Allen Lazard
NYJ (vs . MIA)
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116.
Tre Tucker
LV (vs . LAC)
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117.
Malik Washington
MIA (at NYJ)
Malik Washington's collegiate success at Virginia, highlighted by a dominant 47% dominator rating and nearly 1,400 receiving yards, translated well to the NFL Combine, where he showcased exceptional athleticism, with his remarkable 42.5-inch vertical jump. Despite his smaller stature, Washington's abilities as a YAC specialist make him a valuable addition to the Dolphins' offense, especially alongside playmakers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. With Coach Mike McDaniel's evident enthusiasm for Washington's potential, coupled with the opportunity afforded by Miami's offensive scheme and quarterback talent, Washington could outperform expectations as a Day 3 pick.
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118.
Nelson Agholor
BAL (vs . CLE)
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119.
Kalif Raymond
DET (vs . MIN)
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120.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
DET (vs . MIN)
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121.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
NE (vs . BUF)
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122.
Skyy Moore
KC (at DEN)
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123.
Bo Melton
GB (vs . CHI)
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124.
Calvin Austin III
PIT (vs . CIN)
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125.
Jauan Jennings
SF (at ARI)
The 49ers also re-signed Jauan Jennings to an extension to his rookie contract through the 2025 season. The deal is worth a guaranteed $10.5 million and is comparable to the extension Rashod Bateman received with the Ravens. Jennings had moments in 2024, most notably in his single spot start back in Week 7 against the Vikings with Deebo Samuel inactive. Jennings was targeted a team-high 9 times (31% Target share) and caught 5 passes for 54 yards. He filled in admirably for Samuel. And he performed well in the 49ers' postseason run. Jennings caught 5 of 6 targets for 61 yards in the divisional round versus Green Bay. In the Super Bowl, Jennings was making his case for MVP with 4 catches for 42 yards and 1 TD in addition to a passing TD to Christian McCaffrey. If the team trades Samuel, Jennings is an underrated player who could seize a larger role in the 49ers offense.
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126.
Van Jefferson
PIT (vs . CIN)
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127.
John Metchie III
HOU (at TEN)
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128.
Hunter Renfrow
FA (BYE)
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129.
Tim Patrick
DEN (vs . KC)
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130.
Parker Washington
JAC (at IND)
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131.
Xavier Gipson
NYJ (vs . MIA)
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132.
Justin Watson
KC (at DEN)
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133.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
NO (at TB)
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134.
Johnny Wilson
PHI (vs . NYG)
Johnny Wilson brings a unique blend of size and athleticism to the wide receiver position, standing out with his imposing 6'6" frame. While he faced challenges with a late breakout age and a dip in production in his final collegiate season, his standout performances at Florida State underscore his potential as a red zone threat and contested catch specialist. Wilson's ability to exceed expectations in terms of target rate highlights his impact on the field, despite any statistical fluctuations. The interest from NFL teams in potentially transitioning him to tight end adds another dimension to his potential role at the next level, offering fantasy managers additional flexibility in their roster considerations. Joining the Eagles in the sixth round presents an opportunity for Wilson to further develop and carve out a niche in Philadelphia's offense.
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135.
Ainias Smith
PHI (vs . NYG)
Ainias Smith emerged as a versatile playmaker for the Aggies, showcasing his skills both as a receiver and running back. Despite a setback in 2022 due to injury and off-field issues, he rebounded in his final season with impressive receiving yardage and punt return ability. While not the fastest, his dynamic open-field prowess and versatility make him an intriguing prospect, especially for teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, who have shown interest in him during the pre-draft process. If Smith can put his red flags behind him, he has the potential to contribute early on, possibly even cracking the starting lineup in Philadelphia's receiver corps.
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136.
Brandon Powell
MIN (at DET)
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137.
Parris Campbell
PHI (vs . NYG)
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138.
Trenton Irwin
CIN (at PIT)
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139.
Xavier Hutchinson
HOU (at TEN)
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140.
KaVontae Turpin
DAL (vs . WAS)
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141.
Chase Claypool
BUF (at NE)
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142.
Mack Hollins
BUF (at NE)
Mack Hollins is entering his age 31 season (wait what) and signed with the Buffalo Bills this offseason, presumably to operate as a field-stretcher and downfield blocker. Our new cardio king.
Hollins has only had one productive season in the NFL (2022 with the Raiders as the fantasy WR41) when finished 10th in routes run per dropbacks (93%) and commanded 1,153 air yards as the clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver. The journeyman new landing spot will likely be completely overlooked by fantasy managers, but a WR running a route on 90% or more of Josh Allen's dropbacks (the Gabe Davis role) is pretty tantalizing, especially at a free price tag. Just don't get carried away with Hollins as anything more than a depth fantasy WR4/5 a best. Worth an addition in deeper WR formats. |
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143.
Quez Watkins
PIT (vs . CIN)
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144.
Jake Bobo
SEA (at LAR)
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145.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
TEN (vs . HOU)
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146.
Isaiah McKenzie
NYG (at PHI)
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147.
Jamari Thrash
CLE (at BAL)
Jamari Thrash's college career boasted impressive production, highlighted by his standout seasons at both Georgia State and Louisville. His ability to consistently produce at a high level, even after transferring to a higher level of competition, speaks to his maturity and readiness for the NFL. Thrash's agility and skill in gaining yards after the catch stand out as key strengths, evidenced by his rankings in YAC/reception and broken tackle rate. However, his vertical game and route consistency are areas that may need refinement at the next level. Joining the Browns in the fifth round offers him an opportunity to further develop under NFL coaching while competing for a role in their receiving corps.
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148.
Ryan Flournoy
DAL (vs . WAS)
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149.
Braxton Berrios
MIA (at NYJ)
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150.
Bub Means
NO (at TB)
|
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151.
Isaiah Hodgins
NYG (at PHI)
|
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152.
Charlie Jones
CIN (at PIT)
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153.
Trent Sherfield Sr.
MIN (at DET)
|
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154.
Chris Moore
ARI (vs . SF)
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155.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
KC (at DEN)
|
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156.
David Bell
CLE (at BAL)
|
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157.
Jamison Crowder
WAS (at DAL)
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158.
Casey Washington
ATL (vs . CAR)
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159.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
CAR (at ATL)
|
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160.
Jordan Whittington
LAR (vs . SEA)
|
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161.
Kyle Philips
TEN (vs . HOU)
|
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162.
Tyquan Thornton
NE (vs . BUF)
|
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163.
Derius Davis
LAC (at LV)
|
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164.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WAS (at DAL)
|
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165.
Justyn Ross
KC (at DEN)
|
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166.
Dyami Brown
WAS (at DAL)
|
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167.
Jalen Brooks
DAL (vs . WAS)
|
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168.
Devin Duvernay
JAC (at IND)
|
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169.
Ray-Ray McCloud III
ATL (vs . CAR)
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170.
Cornelius Johnson
LAC (at LV)
|
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171.
Scotty Miller
PIT (vs . CIN)
|
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172.
Ronnie Bell
SF (at ARI)
|
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173.
Malik Heath
GB (vs . CHI)
|
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174.
Deonte Harty
BAL (vs . CLE)
|
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175.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
SEA (at LAR)
|
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176.
Emeka Egbuka
FA (BYE)
|
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177.
KhaDarel Hodge
ATL (vs . CAR)
|
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178.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
DEN (vs . KC)
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179.
Tahj Washington
MIA (at NYJ)
Tahj Washington caught 13 of his 15 deep targets in 2023 (87%). Perfect passer rating generated on deep targets from Caleb Williams.
Broke out at an early age in 2020 at Memphis while competing for targets with Calvin Austin III, before transferring to USC the last three seasons. 5-foot-10 and 174 pounds, he is definitely on the smaller side of this WR class. Posted his most productive season this past year, with over 1,000 yards and 8 TDs (23% dominator rating). Counting stats were not elite, but he was absurdly efficient. Exceptional route runner, slot player and useful after the catch. Second in the class in both YAC/reception and broken missed tackle per reception. He was drafted by the Dolphins in Round 7. |
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180.
Denzel Mims
JAC (at IND)
|
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181.
Jalen Nailor
MIN (at DET)
|
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182.
Jalen Guyton
LV (vs . LAC)
|
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183.
Jha'Quan Jackson
TEN (vs . HOU)
|
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184.
Zach Pascal
ARI (vs . SF)
|
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185.
DeVante Parker
FA (BYE)
|
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186.
Jason Brownlee
NYJ (vs . MIA)
|
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187.
Isaiah Williams
FA (BYE)
|
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188.
Velus Jones Jr.
CHI (at GB)
|
|
189.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
CAR (at ATL)
|
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190.
Equanimeous St. Brown
NO (at TB)
|
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191.
Anthony Gould
IND (vs . JAC)
|
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192.
Austin Mack
ATL (vs . CAR)
|
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193.
Antoine Green
DET (vs . MIN)
|
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194.
Sterling Shepard
TB (vs . NO)
|
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195.
Jalen Coker
CAR (at ATL)
|
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196.
Devaughn Vele
DEN (vs . KC)
|
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197.
Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint
WAS (at DAL)
|
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198.
Brandon Johnson
DEN (vs . KC)
|
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199.
Dante Pettis
CHI (at GB)
|
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200.
Jalen Reagor
NE (vs . BUF)
|
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201.
Allen Robinson II
NYG (at PHI)
|
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202.
Britain Covey
PHI (vs . NYG)
|
|
203.
Daurice Fountain
DET (vs . MIN)
|
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204.
Jamal Agnew
FA (BYE)
|
|
205.
Deven Thompkins
CAR (at ATL)
|
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206.
Julio Jones
FA (BYE)
|
|
207.
David Moore
CAR (at ATL)
|
|
208.
Nikko Remigio
KC (at DEN)
|
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209.
Richie James Jr.
FA (BYE)
|
|
|
210.
Rakim Jarrett
TB (vs . NO)
|
|
211.
Keith Kirkwood
BAL (vs . CLE)
|
|
212.
D.J. Montgomery
IND (vs . JAC)
|
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213.
Byron Pringle
FA (BYE)
|
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214.
Robbie Chosen
FA (BYE)
|
|
215.
Elijah Cooks
JAC (at IND)
|
|
216.
Lynn Bowden Jr.
FA (BYE)
|
|
217.
Randall Cobb
FA (BYE)
|
|
218.
River Cracraft
MIA (at NYJ)
|
|
219.
Ben Skowronek
HOU (at TEN)
|
|
220.
Cody Thompson
TB (vs . NO)
|
|
221.
DeAndre Carter
CHI (at GB)
|
|
222.
Tim Jones
JAC (at IND)
|
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223.
Kayshon Boutte
NE (vs . BUF)
|
|
224.
Trishton Jackson
MIN (at DET)
|
|
225.
Samori Toure
GB (vs . CHI)
|
|
226.
Marquez Callaway
PIT (vs . CIN)
|
|
227.
Colton Dowell
TEN (vs . HOU)
|
|
228.
Mike Strachan
CAR (at ATL)
|
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229.
Erik Ezukanma
MIA (at NYJ)
|
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230.
Simi Fehoko
LAC (at LV)
|
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231.
Steven Sims Jr.
HOU (at TEN)
|
|
232.
Austin Trammell
JAC (at IND)
|
|
233.
Collin Johnson
CHI (at GB)
|
|
234.
Malik Taylor
NYJ (vs . MIA)
|
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235.
Phillip Dorsett II
DEN (vs . KC)
|
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236.
Trent Taylor
SF (at ARI)
|
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237.
Miles Boykin
NYG (at PHI)
|
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238.
Mason Kinsey
TEN (vs . HOU)
|
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239.
Kwamie Lassiter II
CIN (at PIT)
|
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240.
Gunner Olszewski
NYG (at PHI)
|
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241.
Shedrick Jackson
CIN (at PIT)
|
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242.
Dee Eskridge
SEA (at LAR)
|
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243.
Juwann Winfree
IND (vs . JAC)
|
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244.
Keelan Doss
LV (vs . LAC)
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