Fantasy Football Player Notes

Josh Downs dealt with a hamstring issue to open last season, which could be a reason why he didn't eclipse a 60% snap share until Week 4. Downs' playing time was a rollercoaster the rest of the season as his snap rate dipped below 60% in five other weeks in the remainder of the season. Originally, Downs was expected to step into an elevated role in 2026 and play more on the perimeter after seeing only 65 routes as a boundary receiver last year (per Fantasy Points Data). With the signing of Keenan Allen, Downs could be on the outside with Allen until Alec Pierce is fully healthy, but once all three are in the lineup, I expect Allen and Downs to rotate slot and perimeter usage. There's also a scenario where Allen falls into the Michael Pittman Jr. role from 2025 in this offense and Downs goes back to a slot-only role. The addition of Allen just widened Downs' range of outcomes for 2026. The splits in the slot versus outside aren't in Downs' favor. Last year, overall, he was 19th in separation score and 55th in route win rate, but when you look at him as a perimeter receiver, he drops to 52nd in separation and 84th in route win rate. On a per-route basis, among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 29th in target per route run rate, 66th in yards per route run, and 26th in first downs per route run. Downs is downgraded with the signing of Allen to a late-round flier or matchup-dependent PPR flex play.

Alec Pierce finished as the WR23 in fantasy points per game last year after serving as Indy's field stretcher. He had only a 17.4% target share (19.4 aDOT), but he turned that into 1,003 receiving yards and six scores. Indy was counting on Pierce to step into a heavier workload this season with Michael Pittman Jr. gone, but his ankle issues and the signing of Keenan Allen have complicated things. Pierce had left ankle surgery in March of 2026 and has had a bumpy recovery. He needed a PRP injection in January for the same ankle prior to surgery. Pierce will be slow out of the gate for 2026. That isn't a question. The worry is how long before he's 100% (if at all in 2026). The positives are Pierce are that last season, among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 12th in receiving yards per game and 16th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those efficiency marks are awesome, but the lingering concerns about Pierce's health/effectiveness, his target-earning ability, Daniel Jones' health/effectiveness, and this Colts' offense in general push him into the WR3/4 territory in drafts. With the addition of Keenan Allen and Pierce's continued health struggles, I'm avoiding him in drafts this year.

Well, it's official. Keenan Allen is a Colt for the 2026 season. Yes, this is signal related to Alec Pierce's health, but it's also a reflection of the Colts' receiving depth chart. All offseason, this team has been painfully thin at wide receiver behind Alec Pierce and Josh Downs. Allen will immediately help in that department. Last year, Allen proved that he still has gas in the tank on multiple levels as the WR36 in fantasy points per game. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 54th in overall separation, 14th in overall route win rate, 22nd in slot yards per route run (2.09), and 18th in route win rate as a perimeter wide receiver (per Fantasy Points Data). Last year, Allen ran 60.5% of his routes as a perimeter wide receiver while drawing a 20.7% target share with 45.7 receiving yards per game, 1.72 yards per route run, a 24.4% first-read share, and 0.108 first downs per route run. Allen and Josh Downs could rotate between the slot and the perimeter once Alec Pierce is back on the field. Until Pierce is back, I would expect Allen and Downs to be the receivers on the field in two-wide sets. Allen could easily function in the Michael Pittman Jr. role in this offense from 2025 and put Downs back into a slot-only role once Pierce is back. Allen is a viable WR3/4 this season or a flex play with a lean toward PPR formats.