Fantasy Football Player Notes

There's just one running back who's had a higher "boom" percentage (25-plus PPR points) than Kamara over the course of their careers, and that's Christian McCaffrey. Kamara has now topped 25 PPR points in 14 of his 45 career games, which is quite ridiculous. His 2019 season was easily his worst to date, though he still finished as the RB12 despite missing two games. The Saints offense continues to groove, and though Drew Brees is still playing great football, his arm strength is declining, which could lead to more targets than every for Kamara, who's averaged 6.7 targets per game over the first three years in a Saints uniform. Provided he doesn't get hurt, Kamara is a near-lock to finish as a top-six running back.

I'm not sure how many realize how rare Thomas' season was in 2019. He saw 185 targets on a team that threw the ball just 581 times. That's a ridiculous 31.8 percent target share. Just so you know, it's rare for a receiver to see a 25 percent target share. I've already stated in the Drew Brees paragraph that I expect this offense to throw just a bit less in 2020. Initial projections have them around 560 pass attempts, so bringing that down to even a 28 percent target share would force Thomas to lose about 28 targets. You can see why a repeat of last year's numbers are unlikely, especially when you factor in the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders as a rock-solid No. 2 receiver who'll garner more targets than Ted Ginn and/or Tre'Quan Smith would've. Still, Thomas is my WR1 heading into the season, because outside of injury, he's projected as my top receiver by a full 15 half-PPR points.

I'm not sure if anyone has realized it, but Brees has broken the age 40 barrier and is now 41 years old. Unlike Tom Brady, Brees is going to retire after this year. His average depth of target continues to decrease, which will require more pass attempts in order to reach QB1 territory. How to prove that? He completed 74 percent of his passes and threw a touchdown on 7.1 percent of his attempts, yet he was just the No. 7 quarterback in fantasy points per game. His ceiling at this point in middling QB1 territory.

It's very uncommon for tight ends to finish in the top-10 with less than 100 targets, but Cook finished as the No. 7 tight end in 2019 with just 65 targets. He did that because he scored a touchdown every 7.2 targets, a number that is sure to regress. It's tough to find him more targets in the offense in 2020 with the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders, too. He's likley going to be a touchdown-or-bust option, which puts him in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 territory.

In the 17 games that Sanders played last year (no bye week for him with the trade), he totaled more than 33 yards just eight times. In every one of those games, he saw at least six targets. That's going to be difficult to come by during his time in New Orleans. Michael Thomas is going to get a massive chunk of the targets, and rightfully so. You don't want to start taking targets away from Alvin Kamara, either. And judging how efficient Jared Cook was last year, you'd be hard pressed to take away any of his 65 targets from last year. So, where do the targets for Sanders come from? He's now 33 years old and is clearly towards the end of his career. This was a better move from a football standpoint than a fantasy one. Yes, he's getting a big upgrade at quarterback, but you need targets to produce. There was just one game last year where a Saints receiver not named Michael Thomas saw more than six targets. He's a WR5 for me, which means I'll have none at his current cost of WR44.

Did everyone forget what happened when Alvin Kamara had to miss time last year? It was only two weeks, but in those two games, Murray destroyed the Bears and Cardinals to the tune of 307 total yards and four total touchdowns. He's legitimately a league-winner if Kamara misses time. This is what handcuff dreams are made of. He's also going to have bye week appeal, even when Kamara is on the field.

Lutz has everything you want in a kicker. He plays on a strong offense, with his home games inside a dome, and is extremely accurate. He's finished the last two seasons as the second-ranked kicker in fantasy and there's no reason to expect him to finish outside the top three. Kickers are almost always volatile but Lutz is the exception, so draft him with confidence.

It seems many have simply forgotten that Smith is still on the roster despite being a third-round pick by the Saints just two years ago. It's fair considering he's seen just 69 targets in that span, but what if Michael Thomas had to miss some time? Smith has averaged a ridiculously high 9.6 yards per target in his first two seasons and can be lined up all over the field. He's also scored a touchdown every 6.9 targets (10 of them on 69 career targets). If you play in a dynasty league and Smith can be had on the cheap, make that move. It's very possible he'd be the top receiver on the team if Thomas were held out, as he has experience in the offense and the Saints have every reason to want him to succeed. Keep him on waiver wire speed dial in redraft leagues.

Montgomery is an interesting one to keep your eye on. If there's someone who can semi-replicate the role that Alvin Kamara plays on the Saints, it's him. He's still a solid pass-catcher out of the backfield, which we know has value in the Saints passing game. If something should happen to Kamara, everyone would flock to Latavius Murray, and rightfully so. Still, Montgomery would have a role that could produce some fantasy points.