Fantasy Football Player Notes

Collins turned in a second consecutive 1,000-yard season despite missing five games with a hamstring injury. He'll be the alpha receiver in the Houston offense this season, with veteran Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel as supporting cast members. The 26-year-old Collins is just entering his prime and is a worthy option late in the first round of 2025 fantasy drafts.

Christian Kirk has had a rocky road over the last two years after his breakout 2022 campaign (WR18 in fantasy points per game). Last year, Kirk fractured his collarbone and was out for the season while dealing with calf issues before that. In 2023, he dealt with a groin tear. In an abbreviated showing last season, Kirk proved he still has it. His WR57 ranking in fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-8 last season doesn't jump off the page, but he did accrue an 18.7% target share with 1.84 yards per route run, a 23.8% first-read share, and 0.087 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). None of those metrics scream, "DRAFT HIM NOW," but it also has to be said that among 116 qualifying receivers, he also ranked 13th in separation and 22nd in route win rate. Inside what looked like a broken Jaguars' offense last year, Kirk was still crushing corners. He's set for a wonderful possible bounce-back season in Houston if he can stay healthy. Now, you can add a player of his caliber as your WR5/6. It's free upside at the end of your drafts. I remember last year when we were drafting every starting Texan wide receiver aggressively. Now, Nico Collins is the only player that fantasy gamers are paying up for in drafts.

Higgins got the capital I was hoping for as the fifth wide receiver selected in the NFL Draft at the top of the second round. Higgins should immediately file in as the starting outside receiver opposite Nico Collins in two wide receiver sets. Higgins was an underrated player throughout the entire draft process, ranking 27th and 16th in yards per route run and first and 18th in receiving grade during his final two collegiate seasons (per PFF). He's a sure-handed receiver who will become a trusted safety blanket for C.J. Stroud after posting a 2.2% drop rate or lower in each of the last three seasons and a 55.6% contested catch rate in college. The addition of Higgins and fellow former Iowa State wide receiver Jaylin Noel should push Christian Kirk while also hopefully fueling a big bounce-back season for Stroud. Higgins is a WR3/4 that could easily evolve into a weekly WR2 as the 2025 season rolls along.

Noel was disrespected by the NFL as he dropped into the third round of the NFL Draft. The Houston Texans stopped his tumble and called his name with the 15th pick in the third round. I expect Noel to use this as fuel for the fire and walk into the building with a chip on his shoulder. Noel has the play strength, route prowess, and speed to play in the slot or on the outside. He could struggle to find playing time in his rookie season with Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and his former collegiate teammate Jayden Higgins all sitting above him on the depth chart. Collins and Kirk have had their injury issues over the last few years, so it's easily possible that Noel will be starting by midseason. Last year, Noel ranked in the top 30 in receiving grade and yards per route run while sitting second in deep receiving yards among FBS wide receivers (per PFF). Noel is an awesome late-round flier.