Fantasy Football Player Notes

Nico Collins has now managed back-to-back-to-back WR1 seasons (WR9, WR8, WR7) in fantasy points per game. It's impressive that Collins has managed to do this despite C.J. Stroud's struggles over the last two years. There's no reason to doubt his ability to do it again this season. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Collins was 15th in target share (23.1%), eighth in receiving yards per game (74.5), fifth in deep targets (24), 16th in first-read share (28.1%), and 19th in first downs per route run (0.105, per Fantasy Points Data). Collins is an easy click in drafts with upside. If Stroud can flash even momentary glimpses of his rookie form in 2026, Collins could enter top five receiver territory this season.

Marvin Harrison Jr. had a troubled 2025 season as he dealt with a concussion, an appendectomy, and a heel injury that cost him five games. In the eight games he played last year before dealing with appendicitis and a heel injury, he garnered a 21.9% target share, producing 61.6 receiving yards per game with 1.68 yards per route run, a 27.1% first-read share, and 0.082 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). During that stretch, he averaged 13.4 PPR points per game. It's a BIG if, but if he had kept up that type of production, he would have been the WR17 in fantasy points per game. Last year, if you put up that sample for Harrison Jr. against all wide receivers with at least 200 routes, he would have ranked 19th in target share, 16th in receiving yards per game, 44th in yards per route run, 23rd in first-read share, and 46th in first downs per route run. The passing volume for the Cards was propping up some shoddy per-route efficiency, but there are some slivers of hope to take away from this too. If he can overcome the quarterback play and a talented running mate in Michael Wilson, Harrison Jr. can be a volume-based WR3/flex for 2026.

Kayshon Boutte lands with the Houston Texans and should serve as their field stretcher and the wide receiver who is playing in two-wide sets with Nico Collins. Last year, Boutte was the WR47 in fantasy points per game, with five games in weekly fantasy scoring as a top-24 option. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he ranked 48th in separation score and 44th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Among that same sample of receivers, he ranked fourth in aDOT (17.5) while drawing a 10.9% target share with 39.4 receiving yards per game, 1.56 yards per route run, a 14% first-read share, and 0.076 first downs per route run. Boutte will be a matchup-dependent flex this season, likely filling a similar role with Houston, but there's upside for more in 2026 if C.J. Stroud can recapture any of his rookie season magic.

With Jayden Higgins out for the year with a torn ACL, one of the players who could be asked to step up and into a bigger role in 2026 is Jaylin Noel. Noel played 67.2% of his snaps from the slot last year, so the worry is how much he'll be on the field this season, but Houston was fifth in usage of 11 personnel (65.9%), so he could see a near full-time workload. Houston's move to acquire Kayshon Boutte does make it an almost certainty that Noel won't be on the field in two-wide receiver sets. Boutte will likely be that guy opposite Nico Collins in wide receiver formations. Last year, in the four games (yes, it's a small sample), Noel played at least 33% of the snaps (76 routes); he had insane per-route efficiency with a 25% target-per-route run rate, 2.46 yards per route run, and 0.132 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Am I expecting him to put up those types of numbers on a per-route basis over the length of a full season? Hell no, but this is just to illustrate the talent that Noel has when he actually saw the field with regularity last year. Noel is a late-round dart that could hit in a big way in 2026.