Fantasy Football Player Notes

Christian Kirk played an integral role in the Jaguars' passing game, with 57 receptions on 85 targets (21% target share) for 787 yards, averaging 13.8 yards per catch. Kirk found the end zone 3 times during the season. In 12 games, Kirk accumulated 121.8 fantasy points, averaging 11 points per game, positioning him as a reliable flex option in fantasy leagues. WR28 in points per game. When he and Calvin Ridley were both healthy, Kirk posted the higher target share at 21% as the WR23 overall. With Ridley replaced by the "can't earn targets" Gabe Davis, Kirk will the WR1 in the Jaguars offense.

Gabriel Davis did not play in the final two games of the Bills' season. The 2024 free agent will hit the open market in a relatively weak WR free agent class, which will likely create the demand for the extremely boom-or-bust WR. He finished the season as the WR40 in total points, averaging 8.2 points per game as the WR50. Davis posted 5 games with 20-plus fantasy points in 2023 to go along with 7 TDs and 1,200 air yards (30th), but he also went completely catch less in four of his last 8 games played. Even if he goes to a new team where he can improve on his 2023 15% target share (85th), Davis' body of work as a boom-or-bust player will be hard to knock. One could argue that with a step back with Trevor Lawrence has his new QB, his spiked weeks might also not be nearly as big even if he is slightly more consistent on a week-to-week basis. The latter is also hardly a lock, given the depth the Jaguars have across their several established pass-catchers.

Jones had a moderate impact with 34 receptions on 64 targets, gathering 321 yards at an average of 9.4 yards per reception. He was hurt the entire season with three different injuries, so I'd call his 2023 campaign a wash. Playing in 9 games, he earned 61.1 fantasy points with 2 TDs, averaging 6.8 points per game. WR62 in points per game. I'd look more at his final four games as a better representation of what we can expect from a healthy Jones. Without Kirk, Jones averaged 8 fantasy points per game and 17.3 expected points per game. Similar to Calvin Ridley, there was a stark difference between expected and actual production.