Fantasy Football Player Notes

I think it's smart to avoid starting WRs when we don't know who their starting QBs will be. Especially when it's a combination of a Day 3 rookie and journeyman veteran with zero track record of any success at the NFL level. Case in point, Marquise Brown should be on ALL benches in Week 1 versus an underrated Commanders secondary. Hollywood Brown played five games without Kyler Murray (three which overlapped with DeAndre Hopkins also playing), Brown was down to just 5.4 points and 35 receiving yards per game. He also posted similar production in the final two games of the season with both Hopkins/Murray sidelined.

Fantasy GMs were hurt and wanting more last year as Andy Reid kept Moore capped all year in a part-time role. Every offseason report for Moore this summer has been glittering as he has been dubbed a starter in two wide receiver sets. This fact is huge as Kansas City was 24th in 11 personnel rate (three wide receivers on the field) last season. In the limited role we saw Moore in last year, he was immensely productive from an efficiency standpoint. Among 119 wide receivers with at least 150 routes run (per Fantasy Points Data), Moore ranked seventh in YAC per reception and tenth in missed tackles forced per reception. We'll see how much Moore plays in the slot versus outside in this game, but when he's lined up on the perimeter, he'll face Cameron Sutton (50.7% catch rate, 69.6 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Jerry Jacobs (55.0% catch rate, 74.9 passer rating allowed in 2022). This isn't a good matchup for Moore's YAC game. Last year, Detroit allowed the fourth-lowest YAC per reception and fifth-lowest missed tackles allowed per reception. Moore is a WR4.

Andy Reid has declared Toney good to go for Week 1. Color me skeptical about that. In ten games last year with Kansas City (including the playoffs), Toney was an efficiency darling and target-per-route run king. He had 2.60 yards per route run and a ridiculous 29.4% TPRR. Those are beautiful numbers in a bubble. When you also add in the context that he surpassed 32% of the snaps played once, Toney's scintillating efficiency stats get a heavy dose of cold water. If Toney plays Week 1, it's likely on a strict snap count, so you're praying he runs hot with targets on limited usage and scores a touchdown. Both of those things could happen, but that's asking a lot.