Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 18 Rankings
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1.
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN (vs . BAL)
Chase remains "that dude" with a 29.0% target share (eighth-best), a 36.6% air yard share (ninth-best), and 24 red zone targets (third-best). Chase ranks 13th in open rate. Since Week 16, the Ravens' outside corner duo has operated in zone coverage on 60.3-60.6% of their coverage snaps. Chase ranks 20th in PFF receiving grade and 27th in yards per route run (57.4% of his target volume against zone) against zone coverage (minimum 15 zone targets). Chase will run about 76% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (65.2% catch rate, 70.3 passer rating) and
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2.
Justin Jefferson
MIN (at CHI)
Jefferson has been an elite player all season. He's 194 receiving yards away from breaking Calvin Johnson's single season receiving yardage record. The Bears don't have a corner on their roster that can hang with Jefferson. I expect them to push for this record.
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3.
Davante Adams
LV (vs . KC)
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4.
Stefon Diggs
BUF (vs . NE)
Diggs has been chirping for more targets recently. This is a perfect time to feed this monster. Diggs ranks tenth in target share, 15th in air-yard share, and fourth in red zone targets among wide receivers. He is ranked eighth in open rate, immediately behind Justin Jefferson. Diggs will run about 65% of his routes against Jonathan Jones (53.9% catch rate, 71.2 passer rating) and Tae Hayes (three career targets defended).
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5.
CeeDee Lamb
DAL (at WAS)
Lamb is a true alpha wide receiver. He ranks seventh in target share, sixth in target per route run rate, and 11th in air-yard share among wide receivers. He is also seventh in deep targets and 17th in red zone targets. Lamb has logged 100 yards receiving in five of his last eight games. Lamb will run about 61% of his routes against Bobby McCain (83.3% catch rate, 96.7 passer rating).
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6.
A.J. Brown
PHI (vs . NYG)
Brown is ninth in target share, eighth in air yard share, and tenth in target per route run rate among wide receivers. He's also seventh in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets. The last time he played against the Giants, he secured four of his six targets with 70 receiving yards and a score. Brown will run about 74% of his routes against Fabian Moreau (62.7% catch rate, 107.0 passer rating), Nick McCloud (61.5% catch rate, 107.5 passer rating), and Cordale Flott (76.5% catch rate, 121.9 passer rating).
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7.
Tyreek Hill
MIA (vs . NYJ)
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8.
Tee Higgins
CIN (vs . BAL)
Higgins has an 18.6% target share, a 27.5% air yard share, and 12 red zone targets (29th). He ranks 26th in open rate. Higgins is 24th in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run (59.8% of his target volume has come against zone) against zone coverage (minimum 15 zone targets). A premium Burrow double stack for this slate. Sign me up. Higgins will run about 80% of his routes against Humphrey and
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9.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET (at GB)
St. Brown has vacuumed up targets all season. He ranks 11th in target share, second in target rate per route run and sixth in raw target volume among wide receivers. St. Brown is also fifth in red zone targets, fifth in YAC, and seventh in yards per route run. St. Brown will run about 60% of his routes against Darnell Savage (66.7% catch rate, 109.0 passer rating) in the slot.
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10.
DeVonta Smith
PHI (vs . NYG)
Since Goedert's return, Smith has maintained heavy usage in the offense. Over the last two games, he has had a 37.9% target share, a 66.7% end zone target share, and a 41.4% air yard share. Smith ranks 12th in yards per route run, 17th in open rate, and 13th in deep targets. He will run about 76% of his routes against Moreau, McCloud, and Flott.
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11.
DK Metcalf
SEA (vs . LAR)
Metcalf has commanded a 25.4% target share (19th) and 36.2% air yard share (tenth-best) this season. He is 13th in deep targets and first in red zone targets among wide receivers. Metcalf will run about 83% of his routes against Jalen Ramsey (64.6% catch rate, 108.7 passer rating) and Troy Hill (69.1% catch rate, 95.0 passer rating). Ramsey and Hill have operated in zone coverage on 63-66.8% of their coverage snaps this season. Metcalf has seen 52.7% of his target volume against zone, ranking 31st in PFF receiving grade and 40th in yards per route run (minimum 15 zone targets).
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12.
Garrett Wilson
NYJ (at MIA)
Wilson has a 23.3.% target share, a 28.2% air yard share, and a 25.2% target per route run rate. He's eighth in red zone targets, and 34th in total route wins among wide receivers. Wilson has proven he can fill the box score regardless of who is under center for the Jets. Wilson will run about 61% of his routes against Noah Igbinoghene (47.8% catch rate, 77.1 passer rating) and Keion Crossen (58.6% catch rate, 111.7 passer rating).
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13.
Amari Cooper
CLE (at PIT)
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14.
Brandon Aiyuk
SF (vs . ARI)
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15.
Christian Kirk
JAC (vs . TEN)
Kirk has seen a 22.9% target share with the 13-most deep targets and fifth-most red zone targets among wide receivers. He's 25th in yards per route run and 27th in route win rate this season. Kirk has 78 receptions and 1,009 receiving yards this season. This could be money week for Kirk as he has contract incentives paying him $500,000 at 80, 90, and 100 receptions and 1,100 and 1,200 receiving yards. It's time for Lawrence to get his number-one wide receiver a late Christmas gift. Kirk will run about 77% of his routes against Roger McCreary (71.3% catch rate, 112.9 passer rating).
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16.
DJ Moore
CHI (vs . MIN)
With Darnold under center, Moore has had a 29.9% target share, a 45.5% end zone target share, and a 57.3% air yard share. Since Week 12, Moore has been sixth in PFF receiving grade, fifth in yards per reception, and fourth in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). In that five-game span, he has four weeks with at least 73 receiving yards and six red zone targets (four touchdowns). Moore will run about 70% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore (55.6% catch rate, 57.6 passer rating) and Alontae Taylor (46.0% catch rate, 59.2 passer rating).
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17.
Keenan Allen
LAC (at DEN)
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18.
Jaylen Waddle
MIA (vs . NYJ)
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19.
Mike Williams
LAC (at DEN)
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20.
Chris Olave
NO (vs . CAR)
Olave returned from his one-game injury hiatus to earn a 21.7% target share, a 36.4% air yard share, and a 93.5% route run rate. Olave ranks tenth in open rate, fifth in deep targets and tenth in yards per route run among wide receivers. Olave will run about 66% of his routes against Keith Taylor (76.7% catch rate, 139.4 passer rating) and C.J. Henderson (71.6% catch rate, 112.3 passer rating).
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21.
Christian Watson
GB (vs . DET)
Battling through a hip issue, Watson still commanded a 19.2% target share and 48.5% air yard share while managing a 60.7% route run rate. Assuming Watson is healthier this week (limited in practice on Wednesday), he should return to his full-time role this week. In the full games he has played since his breakout in Week 10, Watson has a 23.4% target share, 50% end zone target share, 42.6% air yard share, and 2.92 yards per route run. Watson will run about 67% of his routes against Mike Hughes (74% catch rate, 132.3 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (55.8% catch rate, 71.0 passer rating).
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22.
Allen Lazard
NYJ (at MIA)
In that five-game sample with a full-time Watson at his side, Lazard had an 18.4% target share, 8.3% end zone target share, a 26.1% air yard share, and 1.59 yards per route run. Lazard ranks tenth in deep and red zone targets among wide receivers. He will run about 58% of his routes against Hughes and Jacobs.
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23.
Jerry Jeudy
DEN (vs . LAC)
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24.
Gabe Davis
BUF (vs . NE)
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25.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
NE (at BUF)
If you're double stacking or loading up Mahomes with three pass catchers, Smith-Schuster and Toney should both be in your player pool. Smith-Schuster has a 17.8% target share (6.6 targets per game), 17.3% air yard share, and 15 red zone targets (14th among wide receivers). He ranks 11th in route run rate this season. Smith-Schuster will run about half of his routes in the slot. When inside he'll match up with Tyler Hall (47.1% catch rate, 53.8 passer rating). When he's on the perimeter, he'll run routes against Amik Robertson (58.5% catch rate, 94.1 passer rating) and Nate Hobbs (72.6% catch rate, 109.7 passer rating).
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26.
Terry McLaurin
WAS (vs . DAL)
It's possible, but unlikely, Trevon Diggs follows McLaurin in this game. Diggs has shadowed five times this season, but he didn't shadow him in their first meeting. McLaurin has a 22.2% target share while ranking fourth in deep targets and 22nd in yards per route run. If McLaurin isn't facing a shadow situation, he'll run about 78% of his routes against Diggs (68.3% catch rate, 99.4 passer rating) and Nahshon Wright (61.9% catch rate, 64.6 passer rating). McLaurin is risky, with Ron Rivera stating that they want to get a look at some of the younger players this week, but he could be a risk worth taking.
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27.
Tyler Lockett
SEA (vs . LAR)
I'll update Lockett's status on Friday. His hand still isn't 100%, but he also missed practice on Wednesday with a shin issue.
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28.
Drake London
ATL (vs . TB)
Since Week 13, London has been seventh in targets per game (ten targets per game) with a 38.1% target share, a 50% end zone target share, a 45.6% air yard share, and 2.93 yards per route run. London ranks 21st among 82 qualifying wide receivers in open rate. Last week London ran 48% of his routes from the slot, which was a season-high, so we'll see if that takes place again this week. If so, he'll match up with Antoine Winfield (69.2% catch rate, 105.3 passer rating) for half of the game. London has run 80% of his routes on the perimeter this season, so he could easily see Jamel Dean (50.7% catch rate, 82.4 passer rating) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (61.1% catch rate, 86.7 passer rating) all day.
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29.
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND (vs . HOU)
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30.
Zay Jones
JAC (vs . TEN)
Jones has a 22.0% target share while ranking 17th in red zone targets and 32nd in total route wins. The last time these teams met, Jones snagged eight of his 12 targets for 77 receiving yards and a score. Jones will run about 60% of his routes against Tre Avery (56.8% catch rate, 105.3 passer rating) and Greg Mabin (66.7% catch rate, 96.3 passer rating). Jones could also get his pockets lined this week. He stands at 78 receptions and 802 receiving yards this season. Jones can collect $250,000 for reaching 80 receptions and another $250,000 for getting to 90 receptions. Jones can also pocket an extra $500,000 for reaching 900 receiving yards.
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31.
Marquise Brown
ARI (at SF)
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32.
Courtland Sutton
DEN (vs . LAC)
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33.
Diontae Johnson
PIT (vs . CLE)
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34.
Mike Evans
TB (at ATL)
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35.
Jakobi Meyers
LV (vs . KC)
With Damien Harris returning last week, the Patriots' backfield has reverted to a split workload situation, so Meyers is the only Patriot I'm investing in. In the ten games Meyers has played at least 80% of the snaps, he has had a 25.4% target share, a 28.9% air yard share, an 85.7% route run rate, and 2.18 yards per route run. Meyers has two red zone targets and two touchdowns over his last two games. Meyers ranks 21st out of 82 qualifying wide receivers in open rate. Meyers will run about 69% of his routes against Taron Johnson (72.7% catch rate, 108.7 passer rating). Since Week 12, the Bills have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Meyers was limited in practice all week (shoulder). He's been listed as questionable. I expect him to be a full-go.
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36.
Chris Godwin
TB (at ATL)
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37.
DJ Chark Jr.
CAR (at NO)
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38.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
CLE (at PIT)
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39.
Jahan Dotson
WAS (vs . DAL)
Since Week 13, Dotson has been balling with a 24.2% target share, 57.1% end zone target share, a 34.5% air yard share, and 2.14 yards per route run. Dotson is my favorite stacking partner with Howell. If Diggs isn't in McLaurin's back pocket, he'll run about 73% of his routes against Diggs and Wright. If Diggs does follow McLaurin, the speedy Dotson can feast on the 6'4″ Wright, who runs a 4.5 40 and has a 4th percentile agility score.
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40.
Brandin Cooks
DAL (at WAS)
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41.
Rashid Shaheed
NO (vs . CAR)
Since Week 13, Shaheed has had a 22.6% target share (leads the team), a 28.7% air yard share, and an 84.8% route run rate. Over his last four games, he ranks 11th in PFF receiving grade, sixth in YAC per reception, and second in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Shaheed was clocked at 20.0 MPH on a punt return in Week 13. The blazing speed is real. Shaheed will run about 73% of his routes against Taylor and Henderson.
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42.
George Pickens
PIT (vs . CLE)
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43.
Michael Gallup
DAL (at WAS)
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44.
Treylon Burks
TEN (at JAC)
Last week with Doubs under center, Burks had a 21.1% target share with an end zone target, a 76.2% route run rate, and 2.06 yards per route run (66 receiving yards). Burks is the Titans' best instrument to move the ball in the passing game. He is 21st in yards per route run and 12th in route win rate. Burks will run about 84% of his routes against Tyson Campbell (since Week 11: 58.6% catch rate, 94.6 passer rating) and Darious Williams (Since Week 11: 42.3% catch rate, 69.2 passer rating). Since Week 11, the Jaguars have permitted the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to boundary wide receivers. While this is horrible for Burks, he has the overcome the bad matchup if Tennessee fuels him with volume.
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45.
Curtis Samuel
WAS (vs . DAL)
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46.
Adam Thielen
CAR (at NO)
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47.
Van Jefferson
LAR (at SEA)
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48.
Corey Davis
NYJ (at MIA)
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49.
Tyler Boyd
CIN (vs . BAL)
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50.
Romeo Doubs
GB (vs . DET)
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51.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
KC (at LV)
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52.
Parris Campbell
NYG (at PHI)
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53.
Mack Hollins
ATL (vs . TB)
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54.
K.J. Osborn
MIN (at CHI)
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55.
Joshua Palmer
LAC (at DEN)
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56.
Kadarius Toney
KC (at LV)
Toney has only played 30-32% of the snaps the last two games. In Week 17, he managed a 33.3% route run rate and 27% target per route run rate with 4.73 yards per route run (four targets, four receptions, 71 receiving yards). Since joining the Chiefs, Toney has a 27% target per route run rate and 3.23 yards per route run. He has three red zone looks over his last two games. While Toney might remain regulated to a part-time role, he has the efficiency to counteract the limited snap count. If he sees his playing time increase at least marginally, he could be one of the best plays of this small slate.
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57.
Greg Dortch
ARI (at SF)
Last week, with David Blough tossing passes, Dortch handled a 26.3% target share while running about 78% of his routes from the slot. The 49ers have been eaten alive by slot receivers all year. They have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. Dortch should see another high-volume game matching up against Jimmie Ward (81.8% catch rate, 94.0 passer rating).
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58.
Richie James Jr.
FA (BYE)
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59.
Alec Pierce
IND (vs . HOU)
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60.
Deebo Samuel
SF (vs . ARI)
Samuel has begun this week practicing in full, so it looks like he'll be back this week. Samuel only has half of one game with Purdy as the starter, so it's difficult to surmise Purdy's fondness for him. Just approaching the matchup, Samuel (assuming he's a full go) should be a central figure in their offensive attack. Despite the missed time, Samuel still leads the team in YAC while ranking third in YAC per reception among wide receivers (minimum 25 targets). Samuel has a 25.9% target share (17th) and 11 red zone targets this season. Samuel will run about 59% of his routes against Christian Matthew (65% catch rate, 101.0 passer rating) and Jace Whittaker (88% catch rate, 106.7 passer rating). Since Week 15, Arizona has operated in zone coverage on 66-72% of their snaps. Samuel has seen 71.8% of his target share against the coverage, ranking 12th in PFF receiving grade and 18th in yards per route (minimum 12 zone targets).
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61.
Russell Gage
TB (at ATL)
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62.
Chris Moore
FA (BYE)
While Moore hasn't come close to matching his amazing Week 14 stat line, that's not why he makes the Primer this week. Moore has played 52-68% of the snaps from the slot over the last two weeks. The Colts have been bleeding fantasy points to opposing slot receivers. Since Week 13, without Kenny Moore, the Colts have allowed the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Since Week 15, Moore has had a 17.2% target share, a 20% end zone target share, a 22.3% air yard share, and two red zone targets. Moore will match up against Jullian Blackmon (84.6% catch rate, 141.2 passer rating).
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63.
Elijah Moore
CLE (at PIT)
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64.
Darius Slayton
NYG (at PHI)
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65.
Marvin Jones Jr.
DET (at GB)
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66.
Tutu Atwell
LAR (at SEA)
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67.
Demarcus Robinson
FA (BYE)
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68.
Tyquan Thornton
NE (at BUF)
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69.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
CAR (at NO)
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70.
Isaiah McKenzie
IND (vs . HOU)
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71.
Robert Woods
HOU (at IND)
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72.
Isaiah Hodgins
NYG (at PHI)
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73.
Hunter Renfrow
LV (vs . KC)
Renfrow is someone to consider if you're rolling 20-150 lineups. Josh McDaniels has cemented his status as a fake sharp this season utilizing 11 personnel on 65.1% of their snaps. This didn't look any better last week with Renfrow (49.3%). This has regulated one of the team's best wide receivers to part-time status all year. Renfrow has drawn a 14.9% target share and two red zone targets over his last three games. He will run about 77% of his routes against L'Jarius Snead (70.7% catch rate, 92.2 passer rating).
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74.
Chase Claypool
CHI (vs . MIN)
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75.
Jauan Jennings
SF (vs . ARI)
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76.
Randall Cobb
FA (BYE)
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77.
Kendrick Bourne
NE (at BUF)
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78.
Noah Brown
HOU (at IND)
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79.
Kalif Raymond
DET (at GB)
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80.
Josh Reynolds
DET (at GB)
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81.
Jameson Williams
DET (at GB)
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82.
Quez Watkins
PHI (vs . NYG)
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83.
Olamide Zaccheaus
FA (BYE)
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84.
Trenton Irwin
CIN (vs . BAL)
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85.
T.Y. Hilton
FA (BYE)
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86.
Dante Pettis
FA (BYE)
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87.
Equanimeous St. Brown
CHI (vs . MIN)
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88.
Byron Pringle
FA (BYE)
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89.
Brandon Powell
MIN (at CHI)
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90.
Nelson Agholor
BAL (at CIN)
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91.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
TEN (at JAC)
Here's your seemingly thin, rando play of the slate. Westbrook-Ikhine only garnered two targets last week, but he's a strong matchup play this week. Westbrook-Ikhine managed a 71.4% route run rate last week despite the limited targets. With two games of 72 or more yards receiving and eight or more targets this season, Westbrook-Ikhine has shown the ability to pop off for good games when the situation calls for it. He'll run about 60% of his routes against the ever-burnable Tre Herndon (77.3% catch rate, 115.2 passer rating). Since Week 11, the Jaguars have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.
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92.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
CAR (at NO)
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93.
Shi Smith
CAR (at NO)
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94.
Trent Sherfield
BUF (vs . NE)
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95.
Justin Watson
FA (BYE)
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96.
Amari Rodgers
HOU (at IND)
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97.
DeAndre Carter
LV (vs . KC)
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98.
Laquon Treadwell
SEA (vs . LAR)
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99.
A.J. Green
FA (BYE)
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100.
Scotty Miller
ATL (vs . TB)
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101.
Ray-Ray McCloud III
SF (vs . ARI)
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102.
Sammy Watkins
FA (BYE)
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103.
Steven Sims Jr.
HOU (at IND)
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104.
Jamal Agnew
JAC (vs . TEN)
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105.
David Bell
CLE (at PIT)
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106.
DeSean Jackson
FA (BYE)
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107.
Marcus Johnson
FA (BYE)
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108.
Kenny Golladay
FA (BYE)
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109.
Damiere Byrd
FA (BYE)
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110.
DeVante Parker
NE (at BUF)
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111.
Braxton Berrios
MIA (vs . NYJ)
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112.
Khalil Shakir
BUF (vs . NE)
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113.
Velus Jones Jr.
CHI (vs . MIN)
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114.
KhaDarel Hodge
FA (BYE)
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115.
Jalen Reagor
MIN (at CHI)
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116.
Keelan Cole Sr.
LV (vs . KC)
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117.
Tre'Quan Smith
NO (vs . CAR)
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118.
James Proche II
BAL (at CIN)
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119.
Brandon Johnson
DEN (vs . LAC)
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120.
Cole Beasley
BUF (vs . NE)
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121.
Breshad Perriman
FA (BYE)
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122.
Zach Pascal
ARI (at SF)
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123.
Jalen Nailor
MIN (at CHI)
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124.
N'Keal Harry
FA (BYE)
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125.
Deven Thompkins
TB (at ATL)
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126.
Lance McCutcheon
LAR (at SEA)
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127.
Denzel Mims
NYJ (at MIA)
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128.
Danny Gray
SF (vs . ARI)
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129.
Michael Woods II
CLE (at PIT)
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130.
Dyami Brown
WAS (vs . DAL)
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131.
Andre Baccellia
ARI (at SF)
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132.
Racey McMath
TEN (at JAC)
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133.
Gunner Olszewski
PIT (vs . CLE)
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134.
River Cracraft
MIA (vs . NYJ)
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135.
Keith Kirkwood
NO (vs . CAR)
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136.
Jalen Virgil
DEN (vs . LAC)
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137.
Lawrence Cager
NYG (at PHI)
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138.
Samori Toure
GB (vs . DET)
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139.
Freddie Swain
MIA (vs . NYJ)
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140.
Cam Sims
LV (vs . KC)
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141.
Chris Conley
TEN (at JAC)
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142.
Mike Strachan
IND (vs . HOU)
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143.
Austin Trammell
LAR (at SEA)
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144.
Andy Isabella
BAL (at CIN)
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145.
Ashton Dulin
IND (vs . HOU)
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146.
John Brown
FA (BYE)
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147.
Miles Boykin
FA (BYE)
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148.
Tylan Wallace
BAL (at CIN)
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149.
Pharoh Cooper
ARI (at SF)
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150.
Cade Johnson
SEA (vs . LAR)
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151.
Dareke Young
SEA (vs . LAR)
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152.
Javon Wims
ARI (at SF)
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153.
Johnny Johnson III
HOU (at IND)
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154.
Keke Coutee
FA (BYE)
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155.
KaVontae Turpin
DAL (at WAS)
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156.
Josh Ali
ATL (vs . TB)
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157.
Frank Darby
ATL (vs . TB)
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158.
Stanley Berryhill III
DET (at GB)
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159.
Tim Jones
JAC (vs . TEN)
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160.
Trent Taylor
CIN (vs . BAL)
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161.
Marquez Callaway
DEN (vs . LAC)
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162.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
KC (at LV)
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163.
Raleigh Webb
NE (at BUF)
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164.
Britain Covey
PHI (vs . NYG)
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165.
Dax Milne
WAS (vs . DAL)
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166.
Jaelon Darden
CLE (at PIT)
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167.
Stanley Morgan Jr.
CIN (vs . BAL)
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168.
Andre Roberts
FA (BYE)
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169.
Tay Martin
SF (vs . ARI)
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