Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 1 Rankings
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1.
Justin Jefferson
MIN (vs . TB)
In his three seasons in the league, Jefferson has finished WR6, WR4 and WR1 in fantasy scoring. In 50 career regular-season games, Jefferson has averaged 6.5 receptions, 96.5 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per contest. There's not much else to say here. If you were lucky enough to be positioned to draft Jefferson, you're starting him and feeling great about it.
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2.
Tyreek Hill
MIA (at LAC)
Due to Cooper Kupp's injury, Tyreek Hill has crept into the top-3 consensus WR season-long rankings. And after his monster season in his first year with Miami, it's hard to argue with the bump. As for Week 1, Hill slides in as the WR2 overall in the half-PPR projections with a high-end target share locked in versus a defense that he hung 81 yards and one TD on back in Week 14. Despite being inefficient - four catches on 10 targets - Hill still finished that week as the WR10.
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3.
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN (at CLE)
An elite WR option, Chase is a must-start in all managed fantasy leagues and an appealing option in DFS. The Cleveland pass defense was solid last season, but in the one game against the Browns he was healthy for last year, Chase caught 10-of-15 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. The Browns will probably try to get high-quality CB Denzel Ward as often as they can if Ward is able to play, but he's recovering from a concussion, leaving his status uncertain. Regardless of whether Ward plays, start Chase with confidence.
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4.
CeeDee Lamb
DAL (at NYG)
Lamb has gotten better and seen more volume in each of his three seasons in the NFL, and he'll be up for a contract extension soon. I have concerns about the post-Kellen Moore Cowboys offense, but Lamb is going to remain the Alpha in this Dallas passing attack regardless. I expect the Cowboys to throw the ball more in 2023, and Lamb will be the focal point of that attack. He caught 107 of his 156 targets for over 1,350 yards in 2022 despite Dak Prescott missing five games. A full season with Dak should push those numbers even higher. The Giants were middle of the pack in allowing points to opposing points to WRs in 2022, and their defense should remain mostly unchanged in Wink Martindale's second season. FantasyPros ECR currently has Lamb as one of six A+ WR starts for Week 1 despite the fact that he'll see plenty of Adoree' Jackson on Sunday night.
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5.
A.J. Brown
PHI (at NE)
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6.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET (at KC)
St. Brown was a beast last season, finishing as the WR10 in fantasy points per game. He drew a 28.1% target share (11th-best) while leading all receivers in red zone targets after Week 9 last year. Last season, Kansas City was crushed by slot receivers, allowing the sixth-most receptions per game and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to slots. The Chiefs also permitted the 13th-highest missed tackles allowed per reception last year. St. Brown was tied for 21st in missed tackles forced among wide receivers in 2022. St. Brown is a WR1 who will run about 59% of his routes against Trent McDuffie, who gave up a 67.8% catch rate and 94.3 passer rating in slot coverage last season.
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7.
Stefon Diggs
HOU (at BAL)
You can't bench one of the best receivers in the game, but this is not exactly a smash spot for Diggs. The Jets allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season. In two games against the Jets last season, Diggs put up stat lines of 5-93-0 and 3-37-0. The Jets have one of the best cover corners in the league in Sauce Gardner, and CBs D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II are no slouches. Diggs profiles as more of a lower-end WR1 than as a top WR option this week.
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8.
Davante Adams
LV (at DEN)
Will Patrick Surtain make Davante Adams a bust in Week 1? Probably not. In both games versus the Broncos in 2022, Adams went over 100 receiving yards. Nearly 23 fantasy points per game. Keep him in all lineups.
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9.
Garrett Wilson
NYJ (vs . BUF)
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10.
Jaylen Waddle
MIA (at LAC)
Waddle was not as fortunate the last time he faced the Chargers. He busted out with just 4.1 fantasy points, with just two catches for 31 yards on 4 targets. His explosive skill set makes him an auto start every single week but bear his downside should the Bolts present more problems for Tagovailoa and company. View Waddle was a mid-range fantasy WR2 for Week 1.
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11.
Chris Olave
NO (vs . TEN)
A QB upgrade from Andy Dalton to Derek Carr should suit Olave nicely, since Carr should be able to better leverage Olave's wheels. Last season, Carr averaged 9.1 intended air yards per pass attempt last season, fourth-highest in the league. Dalton averaged 7.9 intended air yards per pass attempt last season. Olave was dynamite as a rookie, finishing with 1,042 receiving yards in 15 games and averaging 8.8 yards per target. Fire up Olave this week against a pass-funnel Titans defense that gave up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs in 2022.
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12.
DK Metcalf
SEA (vs . LAR)
We love Geno Smith this week, therefore we love his WRs. Metcalf was Seattle's target share leader in 2022, and I'd expect nothing less from him in his first matchup versus a sans-Jalen Ramsey defense. Metcalf has an easy chance to hit paydirt in this particular matchup after leading all players in end-zone targets a season ago. The Rams were at their best in 2022 inside the red zone, allowing the league's lowest conversion rate. Expect that number to dip dramatically in favor of the Seattle passing game. Start Metcalf as a back-end fantasy WR1 in Week 1.
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13.
Calvin Ridley
TEN (at NO)
The last time Ridley played an NFL game was Oct. 24, 2021. He stepped away from football in the fall of 2021 citing mental health issues, and he was suspended for the 2022 season for gambling. Ridley reportedly had a terrific training camp, and it will be fascinating to see how he and talented young QB Trevor Lawrence work together. It might take time for them to build chemistry, but you're not waiting to put Ridley into your starting lineup. regard him as a high-end WR2 for Week 1.
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14.
Deebo Samuel
SF (at PIT)
The arrival of Christian McCaffrey might mean that Deebo doesn't add as much rushing value in 2023 as he has in the last couple of seasons. In the seven games he played with CMC last year, Deebo had 19 carries for 96 yards and two touchdowns. Deebo is special with the ball in his hands, so 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan is still going to scheme him some carries - just not as many carries as Deebo handled over the second half of the 2021 season, when he had 53 rushing attempts over an eight-game stretch. Perhaps the more important issue is Deebo's receiving potential with CMC around. After McCaffrey's arrival, Deebo averaged 6.7 targets, 4.1 receptions and 41.0 receiving yards per game. Those are low-end WR3 numbers. Treat Deebo as a midrange WR2 this week but monitor his usage carefully early in the season to assess his value.
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15.
Amari Cooper
CLE (vs . CIN)
Cooper has volatile home/road splits for his career. He's scored 34 career touchdowns at home, 21 on the road. Cooper has 31.4% more receiving yards at home than on the road. He has averaged 9.9 yards per target in 61 career home games, 7.5 yards per target in 64 career road games. The good news: Cooper opens the season in front of the faithful at Cleveland Browns Stadium. When Cooper faced the Bengals at home last season on Halloween night, he had five catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. Play him with confidence.
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16.
Keenan Allen
CHI (vs . GB)
The Justin Herbert-Keenan Allen duo has faced Vic Fangio's defense on three separate occasions since 2020. Allen has posted 12 targets, 10 targets and 9 targets in those three contests. He has also scored or posted at least 67 yards with four-plus receptions. As long as Allen is not held back by any injury, he's going to be posting fringe fantasy WR1 numbers like we saw during the back half of the 2022 season. He also cooked this Miami defense to the tune of 12 catches for 92 yards on 14 targets last season.
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17.
Tee Higgins
CIN (at CLE)
The Robin to Ja'Marr Chase's Batman, Higgins has topped the 1,000-yard mark in each of his last two seasons even though he was limited to 14 games in 2021 and had to leave two games early last season - including a game against the Browns in which he was injured on his first offensive snap. Higgins will look for a better result against the Browns this time around. Consider him a high-end WR2 this week.
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18.
DeVonta Smith
PHI (at NE)
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19.
DJ Moore
CHI (vs . GB)
As the clear-cut No. 1 option in the Bears passing game, D.J. offers a target volume floor with spike week potential should he and Fields connect on a big play or two. A WR2 start for fantasy is appropriate for the ex-Panthers WR.
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20.
Mike Williams
NYJ (vs . BUF)
Williams had a rare boom game alongside a healthy Allen when he last faced Miami, going 6 for 116 and 1 TD. He was not heavily targeted (6 targets) but delivered in a big way as Big Mike tends to do. 5-99-1, 4-39-0, 3-63-1 and 4-54-0 are the stat lines he has posted versus Vic Fangio's Broncos defenses since 2020, which fits William's boom-bust profile to a tee. But given his status as the clear-cut No. 2 - miles ahead of Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johston- I am embracing the boom-or-bust profile with Williams in Week 1 as an upside WR3 play.
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21.
Tyler Lockett
SEA (vs . LAR)
Arguably the league's most underrated WR...Tyler Lockett is in a great position for drafters looking for a start in Week 1. The long-time Seahawks WR has traditionally destroyed the Rams, and last year was no different. Two of Lockett's best games in 2022 were versus LA, highlighted by a season-high 128 receiving yards game on nine catches back in Week 13.
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22.
Jahan Dotson
WAS (vs . ARI)
Without McLaurin (or even a potentially limited one) the target floodgates will open for Jahan Dotson to absolutely feast versus an extremely suspect defense. Dotson had more WR1 finishes than Terry McLaurin in 2022, who played in 5 more games than Dotson. Factor in Dotson's strong finish after his injury from Weeks 13-18, and he's a no-brainer breakout candidate for Week 1. Over that span, he led the Commanders with a 24% target share averaging 2.2 yards per route run (tied with McLaurin). And during the preseason, it was clear he was Sam Howell's favorite target. He played 100% of the snaps with Howell during the NFL preseason. And after McLaurin got hurt, Dotson caught 5-of-7 targets for 76 yards. The former Penn State star recorded all 76 of his yards in the second quarter (28% target share).
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23.
Brandon Aiyuk
SF (at PIT)
Aiyuk quietly finished WR15 in PPR fantasy scoring last year, catching 78 passes for 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns in his age-24 season. Aiyuk has averaged an impressive 8.8 yards per target over his three NFL seasons, and last year he demonstrated that he can thrive despite the abundance of skill-position talent on the San Francisco roster. Consider Aiyuk a high-end WR3 this week against the Steelers.
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24.
Mike Evans
TB (at MIN)
Please refer to the Chris Godwin blurb above for an ominous message about a potential drop-off in target volume for Godwin and Evans this year. Evans has topped the 1,000-yard receiving mark in all nine of his NFL seasons, but he endured a career-long 11-game touchdown drought last season and was borderline unplayable for fantasy over the second half of the season. Evans just turned 30, so it's not as if we should be worried about him tumbling over the age cliff, but he's not the slam-dunk fantasy investment that he used to be. Still, he's a worthwhile fantasy play this week against a Vikings pass defense that was bad last year and hasn't made enough personnel upgrades in the offseason to significantly improve.
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25.
DeAndre Hopkins
TEN (at NO)
The 31-year-old Hopkins joins a Titans squad that desperately needed pass-catching help. Although he's on the wrong side of the age curve, Hopkins is still a high-volume receiver. He played only nine games last year because of a six-game PED suspension at the beginning of the season and a knee sprain that cost him two games at the end, but Hopkins was the WR9 in fantasy points per game and had a hefty 29.4% target share and 43.5% air-yard share. Hopkins draws a tricky Week 1 matchup against CB Marshon Lattimore and the Saints. Treat Hopkins as a lower-end WR2 in his debut with Tennessee.
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26.
Drake London
ATL (vs . CAR)
As a 21-year-old rookie, London had a 29.4% target share and was targeted on 32.4% of his pass routes. He averaged 2.07 yards per route run. It's possible the kid was just revving his engine and is really going to stomp the gas pedal in Year 2. Sure, London's target share spiked after Kyle Pitts got hurt last year. And, yes, the Falcons will be run-heavy. But, hey, there's really no one other than London, Pitts and possibly Bijan Robinson who's going to see a lot of targets in this offense. London is a weekly must-start in fantasy. That said, London's matchup against Carolina might mean a lot of face time with Panthers CB Jaycee Horn, a talented young cover man with the size (6-1, 205) to avoid being bullied by the 6-4, 213-pound London. Tread lightly with London in DFS (but don't rule him out of your lineups completely).
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27.
Christian Kirk
JAC (at IND)
What's slightly concerning if you're a Kirk stakeholder is that he wasn't always on the field in two-WR sets when the Jaguars' starters played in the preseason. And obviously, Kirk's target total was already at risk of being reduced thanks to the arrival of stud WR Calvin Ridley. Kirk is too good to be completely marginalized, but he might be hard-pressed to repeat last year's 84-1,108-8 stat line. As a midrange WR3 type, Kirk will be a tough start-sit call for a lot of people this week.
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28.
Chris Godwin
TB (at MIN)
There's little question that Godwin is a high-quality receiver, but will the Buccaneers have enough passing volume to make Godwin a valuable fantasy asset? Tom Brady led the NFL in pass attempts in 2021 and 2022 with more than 700 throws in each of those seasons. That works out to an average of more than 40 pass attempts per game. In 2019, Jameis Winson led the NFL in pass attempts when he was the Buccaneers' quarterback. In 2020, Brady was second in pass attempts. So for the last four years, Godwin's quarterback has either ranked first or second in pass attempts. It's hard to envision Baker Mayfield finishing top 10 in pass attempts, let alone leading the league. So, what happens if Godwin is playing with a quarterback who throws 550 passes instead of 700? Let's not worry about that this week, since Godwin has an appealing matchup against a Minnesota defense that ranked 27th in DVOA against the pass last year and gave up the third-most fantasy points to WRs.
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29.
Courtland Sutton
DEN (vs . LV)
In Weeks 1-5 without Jerry Jeudy fully healthy last season, Sutton's target share was 28%. In Weeks 10-12 (Jeudy also missed these games), Sutton's target share was back up to 27%. But even in the games where Sutton commanded the lion's share of looks, he came up short more often than not. He was completely forgotten in the red zone - 11 RZ targets, one red-zone TD before Week 18 - and he failed to capitalize on 1200-plus air yards. Considering Jeudy is likely going to miss Week 1 due to severe hamstring injury, it's difficult to not view Sutton as a fantasy WR3 at worst with volume coming his way, with room for more if he can take advantage of a beatable Raiders secondary and positive TD regression on his side. Sutton posted solid stat lines in his two matchups versus LV in 2022, both that also occurred without Jeudy healthy. He averaged five receptions for 66 yards on 7 targets, while also scoring one of his two total touchdowns from the 2022 season.
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30.
George Pickens
PIT (vs . SF)
A big-play specialist, Pickens has a remarkable flare for making acrobatic catches. What Pickens stakeholders need more of is target volume. Pickens had a 15.3% target share last year. He didn't see more than eight targets in any game all season, and he didn't see more than six targets in any game from Week 6 on. Pickens is the sort of receiver who could make his weekly fantasy quota with one big TD catch, but the lower target volume makes for an unstable floor. He's a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.
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31.
Terry McLaurin
WAS (vs . ARI)
Terry McLaurin is currently dealing with a turf toe injury that he suffered in the team's final preseason game. Listed as day-to-day, he will suit up Week 1 but will be less than 100%. The matchup is too good versus the Cardinals to pass. View him as a fantasy WR3 for Week 1. Not an auto-start.
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32.
Diontae Johnson
CAR (at ATL)
Somehow, Johnson failed to score a touchdown last year despite drawing 147 targets and catching 87 passes. No other receiver in NFL history has drawn more than 109 targets in a season without scoring a touchdown. Whether Johnson will reverse his TD misfortune against the 49ers this week is unclear, but Johnson has averaged 9.6 targets, 5.9 catches and 61.8 receiving yards a game over the last three years, making him a must-start in most formats. Johnson is a low-end WR2 this week against a 49ers defense that yielded the sixth-most receiving yards to WRs last year.
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33.
Gabe Davis
JAC (at IND)
Maybe you can't bench Stefon Diggs, but you can - and probably should - bench Davis. With a collection of good cover men, the Jets are stingy to opposing WRs. Davis is especially dependent on big plays. Those Jets cornerbacks are hard to beat, and the ferocious Jets pass rush might not give Bills QB Josh Allen much time to find receivers downfield. Consider Davis a dicey WR4 option for Week 1.
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34.
Brandin Cooks
DAL (at NYG)
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35.
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND (vs . JAC)
Pittman is a talented young receiver, but he was stuck in a bad situation last year with a dusty Matt Ryan playing quarterback for most of the season, and Pittman's situation might not be that much better this year with rookie QB Anthony Richardson facing NFL defenses for the first time. Pittman is a good bet to lead the Colts in targets for a third consecutive season, but that might not translate into worthwhile fantasy production. Treat Pittman like a midrange WR4.
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36.
Jordan Addison
MIN (vs . TB)
The Vikings are currently listing Addison behind K.J. Osborn on their depth chart, but Addison will be on the field in three-receiver sets, and it's possible he'll play with Justin Jefferson in two-receiver sets. The Vikings' first-round draft pick is 5-11, 173 pounds and not especially athletic, but he is a route-running savant a la Keenan Allen. With Justin Jefferson hogging targets for the Vikings, Addison will pose a difficult start/sit dilemma for many of his fantasy managers. Best to play it cautiously and view Addison as a midrange WR4 for Week 1.
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37.
Skyy Moore
KC (vs . DET)
Fantasy GMs were hurt and wanting more last year as Andy Reid kept Moore capped all year in a part-time role. Every offseason report for Moore this summer has been glittering as he has been dubbed a starter in two wide receiver sets. This fact is huge as Kansas City was 24th in 11 personnel rate (three wide receivers on the field) last season. In the limited role we saw Moore in last year, he was immensely productive from an efficiency standpoint. Among 119 wide receivers with at least 150 routes run (per Fantasy Points Data), Moore ranked seventh in YAC per reception and tenth in missed tackles forced per reception. We'll see how much Moore plays in the slot versus outside in this game, but when he's lined up on the perimeter, he'll face Cameron Sutton (50.7% catch rate, 69.6 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Jerry Jacobs (55.0% catch rate, 74.9 passer rating allowed in 2022). This isn't a good matchup for Moore's YAC game. Last year, Detroit allowed the fourth-lowest YAC per reception and fifth-lowest missed tackles allowed per reception. Moore is a WR4.
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38.
Zay Flowers
BAL (vs . HOU)
He's a first-round rookie WR with a clear path to targets. He's the only Ravens pass-catcher that hasn't missed significant time this preseason with any injury concerns, so I like him as my highest-ranked Baltimore WR entering Week 1. The best ability is availability... which has not been the case for either of his teammates Odell Beckham Jr. or Rashod Bateman.
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39.
Marquise Brown
KC (vs . DET)
I think it's smart to avoid starting WRs when we don't know who their starting QBs will be. Especially when it's a combination of a Day 3 rookie and journeyman veteran with zero track record of any success at the NFL level. Case in point, Marquise Brown should be on ALL benches in Week 1 versus an underrated Commanders secondary. Hollywood Brown played five games without Kyler Murray (three which overlapped with DeAndre Hopkins also playing), Brown was down to just 5.4 points and 35 receiving yards per game. He also posted similar production in the final two games of the season with both Hopkins/Murray sidelined.
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40.
Michael Thomas
NO (vs . TEN)
Plagued by foot problems that limited him to 10 games over the last three seasons, Thomas is seemingly healthy now. The NFL's receptions leader in 2018 and 2019 probably isn't going to catch 100 passes this year even if he stays completely healthy - teammate Chris Olave is too good - but Thomas can be a useful fantasy asset as a complementary possession receiver. With Thomas in a home matchup against a bad Tennessee pass defense, Thomas is flex-worthy this week as a low-end WR3.
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41.
Treylon Burks
TEN (at NO)
Before the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins, Burks was ticketed to be Tennessee's No. 1 receiver. It might be best, however, that Burks is playing with a classic No. 1 like Hop and not being shoehorned into a role that may not suit him. Hopkins' presence allows Burks to do what he does best - operate near the line of scrimmage and run routes designed to get the ball into his hands in easy pitch-and-catch situations, setting him up to raise hell after the catch the way he did at the University of Arkansas. Still, Burks isn't a great percentage play in fantasy this week against a Saints defense that ranked fifth in DVOA against the pass a year ago. He's also been dealing with a knee issue, though he's expected to play. Regard Burks as a low-end WR4.
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42.
Elijah Moore
CLE (vs . CIN)
It will be interesting to see what sort of chemistry Moore has with Bengals QB Deshaun Watson. Moore couldn't get on the same page with Zach Wilson last year and more or less sulked his way into a trade to Cleveland. As a rookie in 2021, Moore had a six-game stretch where he had 34 catches for 459 yards and 5 touchdowns. Moore has the talent to become a valuable fantasy contributor, but it's easy to understand why his investors would want to see positive signs before plugging him into their starting lineups. Consider Moore a midrange WR with a wide range of outcomes.
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43.
Van Jefferson
PIT (vs . SF)
Without Kupp, Van Jefferson projects to slide in as the de-facto No. 1 WR versus the Seattle Seahawks. From Weeks 10-18 without Kupp last season, Jefferson was the WR39 coming off a major injury. But his 14% target rate was abysmal, as Higbee led the team in total targets. Still, Jefferson commanded basically everything downfield, with a 40% air yards share...which ranked 10th among all WRs over that span. How much of Jefferson's actual production that was either injury/QB-related remains to be seen. At least you can bet that Jefferson will be out there running a ton of routes like the locked-and-loaded No. 1 WR with a golden opportunity. He earned 7 targets the last time he faced Seattle, catching three for 61 yards. View him as a top-40 WR for Week 1, with volume likely coming his way. Considering some of the roster holes you might be faced with due to some high-priced fantasy studs being zeroes for Week 1, you could do worse than flexing Jefferson in a full-time role. Just note that Jefferson's probably more of a floor play versus a Seahawks defense that was extremely stingy versus perimeter WRs last season, allowing the fewest fantasy points to WRs aligned outside.
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44.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
NE (vs . PHI)
Hard to say how long JuJu Smith-Schuster will remain the team's WR1, given his doomsday timetable regarding his knee health. But until it goes #kaboom, he should be viewed as the target leader in this offense in Week 1. That gives him fantasy WR4 appeal against the Eagles, who he last faced in the Super Bowl. Smith-Schuster commanded a team-high nine targets (38% target share) for seven receptions and 53 receiving yards.
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45.
Nico Collins
HOU (at BAL)
Collins is WR1 in Houston and he owns a juicy matchup on deck vs. the Ravens' banged-up secondary in Week 1. With C.J. Stroud under center: Collins has posted a 35% target share this preseason. Considering the Ravens' lack of pass rush, I think Stroud will have enough time to deliver the ball to Collins in full-blown comeback mode versus sub-par cornerbacks. Low-end WR4/FLEX option in Week 1.
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46.
Kadarius Toney
KC (vs . DET)
Andy Reid has declared Toney good to go for Week 1. Color me skeptical about that. In ten games last year with Kansas City (including the playoffs), Toney was an efficiency darling and target-per-route run king. He had 2.60 yards per route run and a ridiculous 29.4% TPRR. Those are beautiful numbers in a bubble. When you also add in the context that he surpassed 32% of the snaps played once, Toney's scintillating efficiency stats get a heavy dose of cold water. If Toney plays Week 1, it's likely on a strict snap count, so you're praying he runs hot with targets on limited usage and scores a touchdown. Both of those things could happen, but that's asking a lot.
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47.
Rashod Bateman
BAL (vs . HOU)
Before I can click the button on Bateman, I need to see that he is fully healthy with zero limitations. The Texans have an underrated secondary - 15th in defensive EPA/dropback on defense in 2022 - and that makes me lean toward sitting non-Flowers Ravens WRs in Week 1. Very much want to see how the targets are distributed with the starting offense playing a full allotment of snaps.
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48.
Jakobi Meyers
LV (at DEN)
Meyers ranks 26th in targets and 24th in target share (21.4%) over the last two seasons. He inked a 3-year deal with the Raiders this offseason, reuniting him with his former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. He joins a Las Vegas offense filled with playmakers, including Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, and Hunter Renfrow. And that offense will be led by ex-Patriots and 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. And that's where things could be problematic for Meyers, who has been the target hog in a lackluster Patriots offense over the last two seasons. It's hard to envision Meyers commanding a 23% target share (a mark he has reached the last two seasons) with Adams' alpha presence in the offense, along with Renfrow chipping in. However, the Waller trade suggests Meyers could still end up as the clear-cut No. 2 - which is a pretty enticing role. I'd imagine Meyers still plays primarily on the outside, with Renfrow operating from the slot in 11 personnel, which means Meyers won't leave the field (as he did in the preseason). That makes Meyers a fringy WR4 option in Week 1 with him most likely taking over the Mack Hollins role. Hollins finished 10th in routes run per dropback (93%) and commanded 1,153 air yards as the clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver in the Raiders offense last season. He finished last season as WR41 in half-point scoring, which seems like a nice floor projection for Meyers's season-long numbers. There's more competition in the offense for targets, but Meyers is the superior talent after averaging nearly 2.0 yards per route run in 2022. The Surtain-Adams matchup could also force targets toward Meyers in Week 1, as it did for Hollins the last time LV played the Broncos. Hollins commanded nine targets for 6 catches and 52 yards in that Week 11 contest.
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49.
Odell Beckham Jr.
FA (BYE)
The Texans boast a myriad of talented cornerbacks from Steven Nelson, Tavierre Thomas, Derek Stingley and Shaquill Griffin. So again, the individual WR matchups for the Ravens WRs I do not love. However, if I were to bet on a one finding the end zone, it would probably be OBJ, given his red-zone prowess the last time we saw him healthy with the LA Rams. Still, I'd rather just leave him on my bench as I anxiously await the target distribution in the Ravens' new-look offense.
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50.
Allen Lazard
NYJ (vs . BUF)
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51.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA (vs . LAR)
As we get closer to Week 1, we should know more about JSN's injury and availability. But after suffering a wrist injury in the preseason, Pete Carroll has been curiously optimistic about JSN's status saying he will play in Week 1. It's shocking given the intial diagnosis of 1-2 weeks missed, but you can really never rely on Petey Sunshine for accurate injury information. View JSN as a boom-or-bust WR3, that I am okay with starting if you drafted him as a starter before his ADP dipped out of starter range due to the injury scare.
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52.
Marvin Mims Jr.
DEN (vs . LV)
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53.
Adam Thielen
CAR (at ATL)
Yes, Thielen turned 33 last month, and his efficiency numbers have been trending in the wrong direction for years. But is it crazy to think that a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut might lean heavily on a veteran receiver known for his precise route running and red-zone prowess? The problem is that Thielen is dealing with an ankle injury that had him limited in practice this week. If he's able to go on Sunday, Thielen could be a sneaky flex play against a Falcons defense that ranked 31st in DVOA vs. the pass a year ago.
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54.
Romeo Doubs
GB (at CHI)
Doubs is dealing with a hamstring injury, which puts his status for Week 1 in doubt. Lower body injuries are also tricky to address, especially with their high rate of recurring during play. Not worth the risk even if he's deemed healthy enough to play in Week 1. The expectation is that he is going to play, but I'd much rather take a shot on one or two GB rookies instead.
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55.
Jayden Reed
GB (at CHI)
I'd much rather take advantage of Watson's injury by stashing or even starting Jayden Reed. The second-round rookie WR was the slot starter in 11 personnel with the Packers during the preseason Reed checks off all the boxes of a Day 3 sleeper WR, but the Green Bay Packers couldn't wait until Day 3 draft him in the 2023 NFL Draft. They selected Reed 50th overall. Expect the Michigan State product to step in and be the immediate No. 2 WR. He broke out at an early age, at 18 years old while playing alongside NFL talent at Western Michigan. In 2021, Reed blew up as a junior, with 1,026 yards and ten receiving touchdowns en route to a career-high 34% dominator rating. His 23-year-old age isn't ideal, but his experience might just help him hit the ground running sooner rather than later, especially considering that Reed flashed ability as a downfield threat with a top-5 deep target rate (29%) in his draft class in 2022. Make sure he's not hanging out on any waiver wires. Could be in line for a big Week 1.
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56.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
FA (BYE)
At this juncture, we know who Valdes-Scantling is. He's a drop-prone (18th-most) field stretcher. Valdes-Scantling had a 13.3% target share last year, ranking seventh in aDOT and 14th in deep targets among receivers. He had the seventh-highest passer rating while sitting at 21st in YPRR when targeted 20+ yards downfield (minimum ten deep targets). With Detroit remaking their corner room, their 2022 stats against deep passing could be a tad noisy as they allowed the fourth-highest completion rate and second-most deep passing yards. I'm sorry if you're stuck plugging in Valdes-Scantling in Week 1. He could surprise with a long touchdown. He'll run about 60% of his routes against Sutton and Jacobs as a WR5/6.
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57.
Zay Jones
JAC (at IND)
Jones was a pleasant surprise last season, finishing with career-best 82-823-5 receiving numbers. Calvin Ridley is sure to cut into Jones' target totals, but Jones will still be a fixture in three-receiver sets. He even played with Ridley in two-receiver sets during the preseason. The trouble is, with Ridley, Jones, Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram all sharing targets, Jones' week-to-week productivity could be wildly unpredictable, and the lows could be unpalatable. He's a low-end WR4 for Week 1.
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58.
Darnell Mooney
ATL (vs . CAR)
At this time last season, Mooney was penciled as the WR1 in the Bears offense. And although he ranked 12th in air yards share (37%) and 15th in target share (27%) in his 11 healthy games played, it was not enough to vault him to fantasy production in an anemic offense. If anything the concentrated usage suggests Moore will be clearly favored over every other Bears receiver. Until we see Mooney manage to carve out targets alongside Moore, he needs to stay on fantasy benches. He has not topped 45 yards in his last three games versus the Packers defense.
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59.
Tyler Boyd
CIN (at CLE)
A high-quality slot receiver, Boyd has averaged 74 catches and 901 receiving yards over his last five seasons. The numbers have been trending slightly downward in recent years, due largely to the presence of teammates Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, exceptional talents who command a lot of targets. The problem with Boyd for fantasy is that it's hard to know when to use him. He's had some big games even when both Chase and Higgins have been healthy, but there are also games where Boyd is the forgotten man in the Cincinnati offense. Since it's Week 1 and fantasy managers aren't dealing with byes or a large number of injuries left, Boyd will most likely be left on benches in Week 1.
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60.
Michael Gallup
FA (BYE)
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61.
Curtis Samuel
BUF (at NYJ)
Samuel is a super-talented slot WR that fits the new scheme very well. He can make plays after the catch, and I fully expect him to see a decent chunk of volume/targets in Week 1, especially if McLaurin is limited. If you are in a pinch for a FLEX or WR3, add Samuel off waivers and plug him into your lineup. He likely won't give you a massive ceiling outcome, but he can give you a handful of points if you don't have any alternatives. Keep in mind that last season, Samuel was second on the team in catches, third in overall touches and first in catch rate (70%). He's the perfect safety option for his quarterback making his second regular-season start.
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62.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
DET (at KC)
DPJ had a career-best 61 catches for 839 yards and three touchdowns last season, but he wasn't an impactful fantasy asset. It's hard to see People-Jones becoming impactful now that the Browns have added Elijah Moore. For now, DPJ is merely a depth piece for fantasy managers.
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63.
Jonathan Mingo
CAR (at ATL)
A second-round rookie with good size (6-1, 226) and speed (4.46), Mingo is an intriguing sleeper for 2023. It's encouraging that Mingo ran a route on 29 of Bryce Young's 31 preseason dropbacks. That sort of involvement bodes well for Mingo's Year 1 production. With Adam Thielen dealing with an ankle injury and D.J. Chark out, Mingo could be a flex option in deeper leagues this week as a low-end WR4.
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64.
K.J. Osborn
NE (vs . PHI)
Will the arrival of Jordan Addison marginalize Osborn? Maybe not, but Addison could drain what little fantasy value Osborn has. Don't use Osborn against the Buccaneers this week.
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65.
Isaiah Hodgins
NYG (vs . DAL)
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66.
Quentin Johnston
LAC (vs . MIA)
All indications are that QJ is the No. 4 WR on the depth chart behind Joshua Palmer. Will that be the case all season? Probably not. But for Week 1, leave the first-rounder on the bench with him likely not accumulating enough snaps/routes for any worthwhile fantasy production.
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67.
Rashid Shaheed
NO (vs . TEN)
This former undrafted free agent from Weber State was wildly efficient in his first NFL season, averaging 14.4 yards per target and 2.59 yards per route run. Unfortunately, Shaheed isn't likely to see a lot of targets as long as Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are both healthy. Leave Shaheed on your bench.
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68.
Alec Pierce
IND (vs . JAC)
A vertical receiver like Pierce should mesh well with a rocket-armed quarterback like Anthony Richardson. But while Richardson gets accustomed to facing NFL defenses, connections between Richardson and Pierce could be more infrequent than we'd like. Keep Pierce on ice until we see him establish chemistry with the rookie QB.
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69.
Rondale Moore
ATL (vs . CAR)
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70.
Darius Slayton
NYG (vs . DAL)
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71.
Joshua Palmer
LAC (vs . MIA)
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72.
Hunter Renfrow
FA (BYE)
Renfrow is this year's Curtis Samuel. Everybody is just going to completely forget that Renfrow leveraged his savvy route-running to a 111-1096-9 stat line in 2021 because he was never healthy at any point in 2022. Don't be that person who overlooks Renfrow. He showed in Week 18 that he still has "it" going a perfect 7-for-7 for a season-high 63 yards and 1 TD. We still don't know what his role will be with Meyers added to the offense, so he cannot be started in Week 1. But if he sees great usage from the slot (that's what I am projecting) look out for him on the Week 2 waiver wire.
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73.
Parris Campbell
PHI (at NE)
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74.
Robert Woods
HOU (at BAL)
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75.
Josh Reynolds
DEN (vs . LV)
Even in the deepest of formats, Reynolds is barely even on the flex radar. He finished outside the top 80 receivers last season in target share (12.1%, 81st) and target per route run rate (16.4%, 84th). If you're touchdown hunting in those deep leagues, though, he isn't the worst target to plug in. In the eight games he played at least 70% of the snaps, Reynolds saw ten red zone targets from Goff. The Chiefs gave up the third-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers last year. Reynolds will run about 63% of his routes against Jaylen Watson (65.9% catch rate, 93.4 passer rating allowed in 2022) and L'Jarius Sneed (70.5% catch rate, 91.6 passer rating allowed in 2022).
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76.
Chase Claypool
MIA (at LAC)
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77.
Puka Nacua
LAR (at SEA)
Nacua has been a fun toy for Sean McVay during the offseason, with reports of the team giving him an immediate role in the wake of Kupp's injury. Makes sense, considering FantasyPros' own Thor Nystrom coined Nacua as "Discount Deebo" in his final draft player comps. I also liked Nacua's profile coming out of college and felt like his 5th-round draft capital did not match his production. The 6-foot-2 and 201-pound wideout ended the 2021 season as a junior sixth in yards per route run behind future NFL WRs like Treylon Burks, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Drake London. And like London, Nacua operated primarily on the outside with a 78 percent perimeter alignment. Nacua finished his BYU tenure strong as PFF's second highest-graded WR in the nation (90.1) due to his impressive efficiency on a per route run basis. He was targeted on 38 percent of his routes in 2022 and posted the second-highest targets above expectation in his class per Sports Info Solutions. On a depth chart with zero certified studs after Cooper Kupp - Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson - I'm not shocked he has impressed enough to earn a Day 1 role with his versatility. However, becoming an immediate "contributor' does not mean he is destined for immediate fantasy football success from the get-go. Again, he's still probably the third option on offense that might struggle to move the ball without Kupp. Keep him stashed on your bench to see how Week 1 shakes out first, before thrusting him into any lineups. The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue expects Nacua/Atwell to essentially split WR3 duties when Kupp is healthy, as they will both be used more situationally than anything else.
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78.
Jalin Hyatt
NYG (vs . DAL)
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79.
Marvin Jones Jr.
FA (BYE)
Jones isn't a spring chicken, and it showed last year as he limped to a WR69 (nice
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80.
Tank Dell
HOU (at BAL)
It's still unclear where Dell sits on the Texans depth chart with Robert Woods and Noah Brown seeing plenty of snaps with the starters during the preseason. It's just a matter of time until Dell usurps those players, but I doubt we see it off the bat in Week 1.
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81.
Josh Downs
IND (vs . JAC)
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82.
Rashee Rice
KC (vs . DET)
|
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83.
Kendrick Bourne
NE (vs . PHI)
|
|
84.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
KC (vs . DET)
|
|
85.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
CAR (at ATL)
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|
86.
Michael Wilson
ARI (at WAS)
|
|
87.
Allen Robinson II
FA (BYE)
|
|
88.
Tutu Atwell
LAR (at SEA)
Atwell was thrust into a larger role in 2022 and was halfway decent in a horrible situation. He finished the season 28th in expected yards per route run (1.85). However, from Week 12 onward when he started playing a full allotment of snaps, he still ranked outside the top 60 overall among WRs. He should be the favorite to take over snaps in the slot, which gives him a decent matchup inside. Desperation dart-throw that should see a solid target share (18% from Weeks 13-18, superior to Jefferson), but he's not accompanied by a ton of upside.
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89.
Richie James Jr.
KC (vs . DET)
|
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90.
Mack Hollins
BUF (at NYJ)
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91.
Deonte Harty
BAL (vs . HOU)
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92.
Quez Watkins
PIT (vs . SF)
Watkins disappointed in 2022 and, despite reportedly winning the No. 3 WR job in training camp, is likely to split time with the newly acquired Olamide Zaccheaus this season. He's a GPP DFS dart throw given his big play ability, but he isn't someone you should be relying on.
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93.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
TEN (at NO)
|
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94.
Randall Cobb
NYJ (vs . BUF)
|
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95.
Justyn Ross
KC (vs . DET)
|
|
96.
Ben Skowronek
LAR (at SEA)
|
|
97.
Khalil Shakir
BUF (at NYJ)
|
|
98.
Greg Dortch
ARI (at WAS)
|
|
|
99.
Cedric Tillman
CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
100.
Sterling Shepard
NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
101.
Kayshon Boutte
NE (vs . PHI)
|
|
102.
Chris Moore
ARI (at WAS)
|
|
103.
Tyler Scott
CHI (vs . GB)
|
|
104.
Kalif Raymond
DET (at KC)
|
|
|
105.
Trey Palmer
TB (at MIN)
|
|
106.
Braxton Berrios
MIA (at LAC)
|
|
107.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
108.
Jauan Jennings
SF (at PIT)
|
|
109.
Noah Brown
HOU (at BAL)
|
|
110.
Demario Douglas
NE (vs . PHI)
|
|
111.
Isaiah McKenzie
NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
112.
Justin Watson
KC (vs . DET)
|
|
113.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WAS (vs . ARI)
|
|
114.
Samori Toure
GB (at CHI)
|
|
115.
Brandon Johnson
DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
116.
Calvin Austin III
PIT (vs . SF)
|
|
117.
Trent Sherfield
MIN (vs . TB)
|
|
118.
Demarcus Robinson
LAR (at SEA)
|
|
119.
Jamal Agnew
JAC (at IND)
|
|
120.
Nelson Agholor
BAL (vs . HOU)
|
|
121.
Devin Duvernay
JAC (at IND)
|
|
122.
Dyami Brown
WAS (vs . ARI)
|
|
123.
Deven Thompkins
TB (at MIN)
|
|
124.
Jalen Tolbert
DAL (at NYG)
|
|
125.
KhaDarel Hodge
ATL (vs . CAR)
|
|
126.
Malik Heath
GB (at CHI)
|
|
127.
Dontayvion Wicks
GB (at CHI)
|
|
128.
Zach Pascal
ARI (at WAS)
|
|
129.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
130.
Trenton Irwin
CIN (at CLE)
|
|
131.
Scott Miller
ATL (vs . CAR)
|
|
132.
Jalen Nailor
MIN (vs . TB)
|
|
133.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
CAR (at ATL)
|
|
134.
Phillip Dorsett II
DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
135.
Marquise Goodwin
CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
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136.
Rakim Jarrett
TB (at MIN)
|
|
137.
David Bell
CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
138.
Kirk Merritt
FA (BYE)
|
|
139.
DeAndre Carter
LV (at DEN)
|
|
140.
Xavier Hutchinson
HOU (at BAL)
|
|
141.
Erik Ezukanma
MIA (at LAC)
|
|
142.
Jake Bobo
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
143.
Brandon Powell
MIN (vs . TB)
|
|
144.
Antoine Green
DET (at KC)
|
|
145.
Keith Kirkwood
NO (vs . TEN)
|
|
146.
Derius Davis
LAC (vs . MIA)
|
|
147.
River Cracraft
MIA (at LAC)
|
|
148.
Andrei Iosivas
CIN (at CLE)
|
|
149.
Jamison Crowder
WAS (vs . ARI)
|
|
150.
Ray-Ray McCloud III
ATL (vs . CAR)
|
|
151.
Tim Jones
JAC (at IND)
|
|
152.
Charlie Jones
CIN (at CLE)
|
|
153.
Robbie Chosen
MIA (at LAC)
|
|
154.
Ronnie Bell
SF (at PIT)
|
|
155.
KJ Hamler
BUF (at NYJ)
|
|
156.
Byron Pringle
WAS (vs . ARI)
|
|
|
157.
KaVontae Turpin
DAL (at NYG)
|
|
158.
Kearis Jackson
TEN (at NO)
|
|
159.
Juwann Winfree
IND (vs . JAC)
|
|
160.
N'Keal Harry
MIN (vs . TB)
|
|
161.
Jalen Reagor
NE (vs . PHI)
|
|
162.
Kristian Wilkerson
LV (at DEN)
|
|
163.
Tylan Wallace
BAL (vs . HOU)
|
|
164.
Miles Boykin
NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
165.
Marquez Callaway
PIT (vs . SF)
|
|
166.
Trent Taylor
SF (at PIT)
|
|
167.
Julio Jones
PHI (at NE)
|
|
168.
William Fuller V
FA (BYE)
|
|
169.
DeSean Jackson
FA (BYE)
|
|
170.
Britain Covey
PHI (at NE)
|
|
171.
David Sills
DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
|
172.
Johntay Cook II
FA (BYE)
|
|
173.
John Brown
FA (BYE)
|
|
174.
Braylon Sanders
MIA (at LAC)
|
|
175.
T.Y. Hilton
FA (BYE)
|
|
176.
Cam Sims
CAR (at ATL)
|
|
177.
Anthony Schwartz
MIA (at LAC)
|
|
178.
D.J. Montgomery
IND (vs . JAC)
|
|
179.
Dee Eskridge
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
180.
Cody Thompson
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
181.
Racey McMath
DAL (at NYG)
|
|
182.
Steven Sims Jr.
HOU (at BAL)
|
|
183.
Xavier Gipson
NYJ (vs . BUF)
|
|
184.
Daurice Fountain
DET (at KC)
|
|
185.
Cornell Powell
KC (vs . DET)
|
|
186.
David Moore
CAR (at ATL)
|
|
187.
Mike Strachan
CAR (at ATL)
|
|
188.
Tyler Johnson
LAR (at SEA)
|
|
189.
Montrell Washington
KC (vs . DET)
|
|
|
190.
Jalen Brooks
DAL (at NYG)
|
|
191.
Maurice Alexander
DET (at KC)
|
|
192.
Dylan Drummond
NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
193.
Grant DuBose
GB (at CHI)
|
|
194.
Dezmon Patmon
FA (BYE)
|
|
195.
Xavier Smith
LAR (at SEA)
|
|
196.
Cade Johnson
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
197.
Michael Bandy
DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
198.
Kwamie Lassiter II
CIN (at CLE)
|
|
199.
Tyrell Shavers
BUF (at NYJ)
|
|
200.
T.J. Luther
NE (vs . PHI)
|
|
201.
Laquon Treadwell
FA (BYE)
|
|
202.
Austin Watkins Jr.
PHI (at NE)
|
|
203.
Nsimba Webster
CHI (vs . GB)
|
|
204.
Greg Ward
PHI (at NE)
|
|
205.
Kazmeir Allen
WAS (vs . ARI)
|
|
206.
Johnny Johnson III
HOU (at BAL)
|
|
207.
Lynn Bowden Jr.
NO (vs . TEN)
|
|
208.
Shaquan Davis
PHI (at NE)
|
|
209.
Andre Baccellia
ARI (at WAS)
|
|
210.
Lawrence Cager
NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
211.
Trishton Jackson
MIN (vs . TB)
|
|
212.
Raleigh Webb
TB (at MIN)
|
|
213.
Easop Winston Jr.
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
214.
Thayer Thomas
MIN (vs . TB)
|
|
215.
Seth Williams
JAC (at IND)
|
|
216.
Shedrick Jackson
CIN (at CLE)
|
|
217.
Kaden Davis
ARI (at WAS)
|
|
218.
Amari Rodgers
FA (BYE)
|
|
219.
Alex Erickson
LAC (vs . MIA)
|
|
220.
Derek Wright
CAR (at ATL)
|
|
221.
Terrell Bynum
IND (vs . JAC)
|
|
222.
Devon Allen
PHI (at NE)
|
|
223.
Andy Isabella
BUF (at NYJ)
|
|
224.
Dez Fitzpatrick
PIT (vs . SF)
|
|
225.
Jaelon Darden
CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
226.
Tyron Billy-Johnson
FA (BYE)
|
|
227.
Bo Melton
GB (at CHI)
|
|
228.
Isaiah Winstead
FA (BYE)
|
|
229.
Chris Conley
SF (at PIT)
|
|
230.
Stanley Morgan Jr.
CIN (at CLE)
|
|
231.
Mason Kinsey
TEN (at NO)
|
|
232.
Matthew Slater
FA (BYE)
|
|
233.
Willie Snead IV
SF (at PIT)
|
|
|
234.
Joseph Ngata
PHI (at NE)
|
|
235.
Austin Trammell
LAR (at SEA)
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