Fantasy Football Player Notes

Michael Pittman Jr. is the WR16 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 20.9% target share with 51.7 receiving yards per game, 1.74 yards per route run, and a 24.7% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team with ten red zone targets and six deep targets. This week, Pittman should lead the way for the Indy passing attack against the two high heavy Jags pass defense. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has ranked fifth in two high rate (58.8%). Against two high, Pittman has led the team with a 22.5% target share with 2.10 yards per route run and a 28.1% first-read share. Since Week 9, the Jags have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

This doesn't line up well as another strong Alec Pierce week. Pierce has been the Colts' field-stretching single-high destroyer all season. Since Week 10, the Jags have allowed the eighth-lowest passer rating while ranking 16th in adjusted completion rate when defending downfield passing. Also, since Week 10, they have utilized two high at the fifth-highest rate (58.8%). Against two high, Pierce has had an 11.3% target share, 1.44 yards per route run, and a 14.9% first-read share. Working in Pierce's favor is the fact that the Jags have been horrible against perimeter wide receivers recently. Since Week 9, the Jags have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. This could help Pierce pop off with a splash play or two, but I don't believe this is a ceiling game for Pierce.

Josh Downs has had a disappointing season, and I don't see it turning around this week. He is the WR53 in fantasy points per game and hasn't hit double-digit PPR points since Week 9. Downs has a 16.7% target share with 33.6 receiving yards per game, 1.60 yards per route run, and a 19% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team with ten red zone targets while kicking in five deep targets. Jourdan Lewis's return last week means Downs is headed toward another quiet game. In slot coverage this season, Lewis has allowed only one touchdown and a 61.7 passer rating in his coverage. Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers this season.