Fantasy Football Player Notes

The ink barely dried on Aiyuk's contract as he made it back just in time for Week 1. Aiyuk was amazing last year as the WR16 in fantasy, ranking third in YPRR and second in FD/RR. His talent and efficiency allowed him to outkick his volume constraints. Aiyuk ranked 30th in raw target volume with an astounding 105 targets. He was also only 44th in red zone targets and was the WR31 in expected fantasy points per game. It didn't matter though. As good as he is, this doesn't set up as an Aiyuk smash week. The Jets ranked 11th in two high usage last year (51.7%). Two high defenses usually mean a heaping dose of Deebo Samuel. Last year against two-high, Aiyuk had an 18% target share, a 35.3% air-yard share, 2.58 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Aiyuk will still be involved, but this isn't a game where he'll be leading the way. Aiyuk will run about 75% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (56.9% catch rate and 76.5 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (61.4% catch rate and 85.1 passer rating).

Robinson was on fire to close last season. In Weeks 13-18, he went on a tear ranking (among 109 qualifying receivers), 36th in YPRR, 28th in FD/RR, and 26th in fantasy points per route run. In those six weeks, Robinson was the WR31 in fantasy points per game. This isn't the game to look to flex him, though. Last year, Detroit utilized single-high on 54.3% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, over the final six games of last year, Robinson had a 16.1% target share, 1.58 YPRR, a 16.1% first-read share, and 0.089 FD/RR. Robinson was the distant third option against single-high. Kupp and Nacua will lead the way and soak up a ton of volume. Robinson will run about 76% of his routes against Carlton Davis (63.3% catch rate and 102.5 passer rating) and rookie Terrion Arnold.