Fantasy Football Player Notes

Mason crushed the Jets and every expectation anyone should have had for his first starting performance. Mason finished with an 81% snap rate, 29 touches, and 152 total yards as the RB5 for the week. Among 34 qualifying backs, Mason ranks 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. In Week 1, Minnesota was again a brutal rushing matchup, not allowing an explosive run with only a 5% missed tackle rate and 2.19 yards after contact per attempt. These numbers look eerily similar to last season when Minnesota surrendered the lowest explosive run rate and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and rushing yards per game. Mason has a tough hill to climb, but he can overcome it with volume, talent, and one of the best offensive minds in the NFL.

Samuel led the way in Week 1 with a 31% target share, a 29.5% air-yard share, 2.08 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share as the WR12 for the week. He should do so again in Week 2 against Minnesota's two-high defense. In Week 1, Minny utilized two high on a crazy 83.7% of their coverage snaps to lead the NFL. Last year, against two high defenses, Samuel was a target hog with a 26.3% target share, a 21.5% air-yard share, 3.23 YPRR, and a 36% first-read share. Last year, among 104 qualifying receivers, Samuel ranked 35th in separation against two high. Samuel will run about 50% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (2023: 56.8% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (2023: 63.8% catch rate and 82.5 passer rating).

Last week Aiyuk wasn't nearly as limited as we were led to believe walking into Week 1. He had a 75.8% route run rate with a 17.2% target share, a 19.1% air-yard share, 1.12 YPRR, and a 13.6% first-read share. That first-read share ranked fourth among the 49ers' starting skill players. We shouldn't be surprised by that, though, as Samuel was slated to lead the passing attack with the coverage matchup that they faced in Week 1. It should be much the same this week, with Samuel doing the heavy lifting. In Week 1, Minny utilized two high on a crazy 83.7% of their coverage snaps to lead the NFL. Last year, against two high defenses, Aiyuk had an 18% target share, a 35.3% air-yard share (15.5 aDOT), 2.58 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Aiyuk is still getting his legs under him after missing most of the offseason with trade rumors and contract issues swirling. Aiyuk will run about 80% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (2023: 56.8% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (2023: 63.8% catch rate and 82.5 passer rating). I expect his route share to trickle up, but this could be another sleepy week for Aiyuk.

George Kittle caught four of five targets for 40 yards in Week 1, finishing as the overall TE10 in Half-PPR scoring. Kittle's weekly volume tends to be a bit lower than other elite fantasy tight ends. But he makes up for it more often than not with extreme efficiency. Kittle averaged 11.3 yards per target last year. Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith were the only tight ends with 70 or more targets who averaged 11.3 yards per reception. That efficiency makes George Kittle a potential top-five fantasy tight end every time he steps onto the field.