Fantasy Football Player Notes

Downs has been the WR24 in fantasy points per game since his return, drawing a 27.4% target share with 2.37 YPRR and a 35.7% first-read share. He has been awesome and already has two end-zone targets. Tennessee has the seventh-highest two high rate in the NFL (50.4%). Against two-high, his target share has remained a strong 25.5% with 2.45 YPRR and a 34.4% first-read share. Tennessee hasn't yet been tested by a strong slot receiver who is receiving a heavy workload. Jayden Reed only saw six targets with a run-heavy game script with Malik Willis, but he converted those into four receptions and 50 receiving yards. Tennessee has faced the fifth-fewest slot targets and allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards. Downs should be the focal point of the passing attack this week.

This isn't the matchup to consider chasing a big Pierce week. Pierce remains the field stretcher for Indy. 55.6% of his target volume has been on deep targets. Tennessee has shut down deep passing, allowing the fewest deep passing yards per game and the lowest CPOE to targets 20 or more yards downfield.

Mitchell is a must-sit this week. If Michael Pittman plays, Mitchell is tossed into a part-time role. If Pittman is out, Mitchell will become a full-time player, but he will likely get shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed. Mitchell has been a part-time player this season. Last week, he drew a 15.4% target share and an insane 58% TPRR with only a 24% route share. Overall, this season, he has had a 31% TPRR, 1.08 YPRR, and a 16.2% first-read share. Mitchell has two end-zone targets. Sneed (41.7% catch rate and 59.4 passer rating) followed Tyreek Hill, Romeo Doubs, Garrett Wilson, and D.J. Moore on 53.3-66.7% of their routes. None of them surpassed 35 scoreless receiving yards in his coverage. Tennessee has the seventh-highest two high rate in the NFL (50.4%). Against two-high, Mitchell has seen his TPRR drop to 25% as his YPRR has cratered to 0.33. Stash Mitchell, but don’t look to put him in lineups this week. Tennessee has given up the 12th-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

So…earlier this week, it was announced Pittman Jr. was dealing with a back issue and could possibly be sent to the IR. Now, after not practicing on Wednesday or Thursday, he has been listed as a full participant in the Friday walk-through and has been listed as questionable. I feel like Indy is hoodwinking us with all of this mess. We’ll see if Pittman Jr. actually suits up for Week 6 (I doubt it.). Pittman Jr. has drawn a 24.3% target share with a 24% air-yard share, 1.74 YPRR, and a 27.6% first-read share. He ranks 11th among wide receivers in red zone targets. If Pittman suits up, I worry that he will be whipped off the map by L’Jarius Sneed (41.7% catch rate and 59.4 passer rating). Sneed followed Tyreek Hill, Romeo Doubs, Garrett Wilson, and D.J. Moore on 53.3-66.7% of their routes. None of them surpassed 35 scoreless receiving yards in his coverage. If Pittman does play in many leagues, I’ll be sitting him.