Fantasy Football Player Notes

Metcalf has proven at this point that his floor is as a safe WR2. Last year, he finished another successful campaign as the WR22 in fantasy. He was 22nd in YPRR, 23rd in first read share, and 20th in FD/RR last season. Last year, Denver ranked 11th in single-high usage (55.8%). Metcalf ate last year against single-high with a 26.1% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, 2.71 YPRR, and 12 end zone targets. We don't know if Ryan Grubb will deploy Seattle's wide receivers in a similar fashion, but Metcalf has a compelling case to keep his number-one role against single-high. Metcalf could be shadowed by Patrick Surtain (62.9% catch rate and 93.9 passer rating) in this game. Surtain followed eight receivers last year on at least 63% of their routes, with only Tyreek Hill and D.J. Moore surpassing 70 receiving yards in his primary coverage. If Metcalf isn't shadowed, he'll see Surtain and Riley Moss (only one target defended last year) for most of the game.

Pickens should lead the way for Pittsburgh's aerial attack this season. We got a small snippet of what that might look like last year when Dionate Johnson missed time with an injury. In Weeks 2-5 without Johnson, his target share climbed to 27.1%, his air-yard share stood at a whopping 50.1%, he produced 3.0 yards per route run, and he was the WR16 in fantasy points per game. In those four games, he saw three end zone targets and had a ridiculous 38.4% first-read share. Those market share numbers could all be repeated in 2024. We'll see about the efficiency numbers that Pittsburgh's quarterback play could vastly impact. With Raheem Morris at the controls for the Falcons' defense, we should expect a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Over the last two years, Morris has utilized these two coverages on 57.9-59.5% of defensive snaps. Last year against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Pickens had a 21.5% target share, 2.87 yards per route run, and 0.105 first downs per route run. All of these are stellar marks. Pickens will run about 83% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (57.9% catch rate and 95.7 passer rating) and Mike Hughes (61.9% catch rate and 94.3 passer rating).