Early 2017 Undervalued Fantasy Football Players

These days there are countless ways to build a fantasy football league and roster. The creation of various formats, like dynasty, redraft, devy, and 2-QB scoring has led to an expansion of how championship-winning rosters are built.

Auctions, blind bid waivers, and trading are examples of how fantasy owners can acquire talent, but the most popular and dependable way to assemble a winning squad is in the draft. For the vast majority of people that participate in fantasy football drafts, the biggest advantage they can gain before and during that draft is to recognize value and to know when to capitalize if a player slides during the draft process.

Acquiring these players, and others that offer a high return on investment can give you the biggest edge toward building the strongest roster possible.

Using our PPR league ADP (average draft position) data, here are some players that are undervalued entering the 2017 fantasy football draft season.

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Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota (TEN) ADP 9.09 (QB13)

Only 23 years old, Marcus Mariota enters his third pro season with a lot of momentum. The No. 2 pick of the 2015 NFL draft made big strides last season from his solid rookie campaign, improving his touchdown passing totals, rushing output and dropping to only nine interceptions. Mariota’s  21.5 fantasy points-per-game total was a top-10 figure among quarterbacks.

The Titans are also an ascending team that has surrounded their signal-caller with one of the league’s best offensive lines. They invested the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft on WR Corey Davis and also spent a third-round pick on Taywan Taylor. Including a dynamic duo of running backs, Tennessee has the potential to be one of the most improved offenses this season.

Mariota has missed four games in his brief career and is still recovering from a broken leg that ended his 2016 season, but he is expected to be fully healthy for training camp. If Mariota can avoid further injuries and continue to improve, he could be on the verge of a breakout season that would see him join the conversations as a top-5 fantasy quarterback, and that makes him a tremendous, high-ceiling option as his current QB13 price tag.

Philip Rivers (LAC) ADP 10.05 (QB15)

Seemingly an annual entry in lists of overlooked or potential sleeper fantasy options, Philip Rivers is once again an excellent bargain in 2017 fantasy drafts. Rivers is coming off another season of 4,000+ passing yards – a figure he has eclipsed in eight of the past nine seasons – and he threw 33 touchdowns, the second-highest total of his career.

You would never know this from his currently deflated ADP of QB15, but Rivers has been a top-10 fantasy option in each of the past four seasons.

 
Like the Titans, San Diego’s brass has also spent some significant draft capital to build a strong offense around their veteran quarterback. Melvin Gordon is a top-5 running back, and No. 7 overall pick Mike Williams will combine with the returning Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and TEs Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates to give Rivers an excellent group of pass catchers.

At 35, Rivers has never missed a game and offers a safe, QB1 return for savvy fantasy owners that decide to address other needs and look to acquire their quarterbacks towards the tail end of their drafts.

Other QB values: Eli Manning (NYG) QB18, Carson Palmer (ARI) QB22, Ryan Tannehill (MIA) QB25

Running Backs

Isaiah Crowell (CLE) ADP 3.06 (RB15)

Despite never getting 20 or more carries in any one game last season, Isaiah Crowell still finished as the RB15 in PPR scoring. Although he was surrounded by a putrid supporting cast, Crowell put up a robust 4.8 yards-per-carry and caught 40 passes. Now, entering his fourth season playing for a lucrative long-term contract, Crowell looks like a player about to break out.

Cleveland is quietly building a strong offensive line and Crowell is expected to command a much bigger role as the lead back this season. Duke Johnson exceeded five carries only three times in 2016 and isn’t viewed as rugged enough to eat into Crowell’s role, and the Browns didn’t add any competition through the draft. For an analytics team that is slowly trying to build a winner, Crowell will be a big part of the Browns offense and could approach 250 carries.

The elite fantasy running backs are sure to be off the board by the top of the third round in most fantasy drafts, so if you find yourself selecting wide receivers early and are on the lookout for high-upside runners in the middle of your draft, Isaiah Crowell offers RB1 potential for a discounted price.

Bilal Powell (NYJ) ADP 6.08 (RB25)

Powell finished last season as the RB17 in PPR formats, but he was much better in the fantasy playoffs when owners needed him the most. In the season’s final five weeks, Powell rushed for 414 yards, caught 21 passes and produced three touchdowns en route to finishing as the No. 5 fantasy running back during that stretch.

Although the offensively-challenged Jets are expected to utilize a committee with Powell and the aging Matt Forte, Powell was by far the better back last season and has flashed superb pass-catching ability throughout his career. Forte, who will turn 32 this season and has declined as a runner in four-straight years, should continue to see less of a role, leaving Powell to take a bigger share of the carries and third-down work.

To end 2016, Powell exceeded double-digit totes in each of New York’s final four contests and finished well north of five yards-per-carry. By this point in their respective careers, Bilal Powell is simply a better option for the Jets and fantasy owners in the middle rounds.

Chris Thompson (WAS) ADP 17.01 (RB64)

If you’re looking for a quality PPR runner to fill out your depth towards the end of your draft, Washington’s Chris Thompson might be one of the most overlooked values of the entire 2017 season.

While most people will target rookie Samaje Perine, Thompson is coming off an excellent season where he finished as the PPR RB28 and is currently, at RB64, going undrafted in most leagues. Thompson, who put up a career-high in rushes, catches, and touchdowns in 2016, has secured a role no matter who takes the first-and-second town carries in D.C.

Thompson makes an excellent handcuff pick for Perine or Robert Kelley owners but holds stand-alone value as a flex play in deeper PPR leagues. Targeting unheralded sleepers like Chris Thompson with your final pick is one of the best strategies that savvy fantasy owners can employ to build the best possible roster.

Other RB values: Derrick Henry (TEN) RB26, Paul Perkins (NYG) RB32, Frank Gore (IND) RB35, James White (NEP) RB 50, Terrance West (BAL), RB54 

Wide Receivers

Doug Baldwin (SEA) ADP 3.01 (WR13)

Those lucky enough to snag a top-3 pick in 2017 fantasy drafts would be wise to take one of the few elite three-down running backs currently occupying most ADP lists. But just because you take a running back early doesn’t mean you have to miss out on the top-10 wide receiver in that long wait for the bottom of Round 2.

Doug Baldwin followed up an amazing end to a top-10 2015 season with a WR8 finish in 2016. Baldwin’s targets, receptions, and yards have increased in each of the past four seasons, and although often overlooked, he’s a clear-cut No. 1 fantasy receiver that is often available in the third round.

Baldwin, with a current ADP of WR13, is well-respected among fantasy experts, but he’s often passed over by the general public because he’s not as flashy or hyped as other second-and-third round talents. He may not wow other owners, but Baldwin has an excellent shot at another top-10 finish, making him a safe, strong value in Round 3.

Terrelle Pryor (WAS) ADP 4.03 (WR21)

In his first full season as an NFL wide receiver, Pryor eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards despite an awful quarterback situation in Cleveland. Pryor’s 141 targets last season were a healthy 12th in the NFL, and he ended up as the WR21 for the lowly Browns.

Now Pryor enters a much better situation in Washington, where he’s expected to take over as the Redskins No. 1 receiver. More importantly, Pryor will have a legitimate quarterback getting him the ball in Kirk Cousins. The guy Pryor is replacing in Washington, Pierre Garcon, was just behind Pryor in 2016 as the WR22, so that seems like a safe floor for Pryor in Jay Gruden’s powerful offense.

By signing a one-year deal, Pryor will be plenty motivated to prove that he’s a playmaker in the NFL, and now a key part of a much better offense with a more talented supporting cast, he looks primed to produce 75+ receptions, over 1,000 yards and 6-to-8 touchdowns in 2017. Including teammate Jamison Crowder, the Redskins might have to most underrated starting duo of wideouts in all of fantasy football.

Mike Wallace (BAL) ADP 10.06 (WR47)

His ADP is starting to climb, but still currently available as the 47th wide receiver off the board, Mike Wallace is not only one of the last No. 1 receivers you can expect to nab in your fantasy draft, but he’s one of the top value picks of the 2017 season.

Wallace has a solid track record as a valuable and productive contributor. Exclude his one year exodus in Minnesota, where he simply wasn’t a good fit, and Wallace has been a WR1 or WR2 in each of the previous six seasons. In three of those years, he surpassed 1,000 receiving yards, and he’s produced eight or more touchdowns in four of those six seasons.

 
Joe Flacco tied Drew Brees for an NFL-high 673 attempts. With an iffy-at-best backfield, the Ravens will remain a pass-first offense in 2017. With Steve Smith now retired, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Wallace top 120 targets in 2017. That’s a lot of positives for a proven player that can be had for a lowly 11th or 12th round pick.

Other WR values: Stefon Diggs (MIN) WR27, Randall Cobb (GB) WR37, Eric Decker (NYJ) WR39, Pierre Garcon (SF) WR41, Cameron Meredith (CHI) WR43, John Brown (ARZ) WR46, Robert Woods (LAR) WR69

Tight Ends

Julius Thomas (MIA) ADP 14.02 (TE16)

It’s not really a surprise that people are avoiding Julius Thomas, who was unceremoniously traded to Miami after two disappointing years in Jacksonville. Thomas has yet to exceed 14 games played in any one season, and never lived up to the hype with the Jaguars after consecutive seasons with 12 touchdowns in Denver.

But the positive here is that Thomas is reunited with Adam Gase, who was Denver’s offensive coordinator when Thomas scored 24 touchdowns in 27 games for the Broncos from 2013-2014. Gase knows how to utilize his 6-foot-5 tight end – especially in the red zone.

There are only a handful of reliable tight ends in fantasy football, and you have to invest a moderately early pick to acquire their services. The majority of fantasy owners will hold off on drafting their tight ends, and Thomas fits the bill as a late-round pick that offers a lot of upside as part of a fantasy tight end committee.

Austin Hooper (ATL) ADP 15.11 (TE22)

With Kyle Shanahan no longer in Atlanta, there will be some changes to the Falcons passing attack. These changes could be very beneficial to second-year pass catcher Austin Hooper, who moves into a starting role for the Falcons after Jacob Tamme was not re-signed.

Tight end is a notoriously difficult transition for a rookie, but Hooper flashed some receiving prowess in his first year, including three touchdown grabs, which tied Tamme to lead Atlanta’s tight end committee.

Hooper is expected to move into the starting lineup and play most passing downs as Levine Toilolo is more of an inline tight end who will be utilized as a blocker first. Currently available as the 22nd tight end, Hooper is barely being drafted but is certainly worth a look late in drafts for fantasy owners that waited to address the position.

Other TE values: Zach Ertz (PHI) TE11, Jack Doyle (IND) TE14, Coby Fleener (NO) TE15

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Jody Smith is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jody, check out his archive and follow him @JodySmithNFL.