There is plenty of variance in how we all define sleepers, so let me explain the guidelines I personally use. A sleeper is not someone who is currently or will soon be drafted in the top 10 rounds this preseason. Derrick Henry might just be a breakout performer, but he is by no means a sleeper. Nor is a sleeper is not someone that everyone is hyped about. I love myself some Samaje Perine, but everyone knows who he is and that he has immense upside. Finally, a sleeper is not someone who has done it before. We all know Jamaal Charles is the all-time NFL leader in yards per carry. No one needs to tell you that if he finds his way into carries, he could be an RB1.
Rather, a sleeper is someone drafted #120 or lower that hardly anyone is talking about but explode onto the scene at some point this year and be a big part of your team winning your fantasy football league championship. Some of these players last year were Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and Jordan Howard. We have a strong idea of the types of players who perform this way seemingly out of the blue. Today, I’ll introduce you to my top ten that have a chance to be those type of players in 2017.
There is plenty of variance in how we all define sleepers, so let me explain the guidelines I personally use. A sleeper is not someone who is currently or will soon be drafted in the top 10 rounds this preseason. Derrick Henry might just be a breakout performer, but he is by no means a sleeper. Nor is a sleeper is not someone that everyone is hyped about. I love myself some Samaje Perine, but everyone knows who he is and that he has immense upside. Finally, a sleeper is not someone who has done it before. We all know Jamaal Charles is the all-time NFL leader in yards per carry. No one needs to tell you that if he finds his way into carries, he could be an RB1.
Rather, a sleeper is someone drafted #120 or lower that hardly anyone is talking about but explode onto the scene at some point this year and be a big part of your team winning your fantasy football league championship. Some of these players last year were Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and Jordan Howard. We have a strong idea of the types of players who perform this way seemingly out of the blue. Today, I’ll introduce you to my top ten that have a chance to be those type of players in 2017.
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#10 Kenny Golladay (WR – DET)
The Lions have plenty of passing options with Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, Marvin Jones and Theo Riddick, but the Saints were considered to be in a similar situation last pre-season before Michael Thomas forced his way into a load of snaps. I’m by no means saying that Golladay is as good as Thomas, but in terms of pure athletic ability, he is superior. The Lions’ rookie is bigger, faster, stronger and better at jumping. To further stretch the comparison, Golladay has been receiving similarly glowing reports during OTAs as Thoms this time last year. He has what it takes to go up and get the ball in the red-zone which is a role that will need to be filled with the Anquan Boldin absence. Don’t expect WR3 play from him early on, but there is a distinct possibility that he is the breakout receiver of this rookie draft class.
#9 Charles Sims (RB -TB)
Let’s get it out of the way: Sims was abysmal last season and in his rookie campaign. As you well know, that often happens when someone is playing hurt, like Sims was both seasons. In the one year we saw a healthy Sims, however, he was downright filthy with 1,090 yards from scrimmage on just 158 touches. The reason for the hype became evident to us all which led to him being drafted in the top 120 last season, then one injury suddenly made everyone think he is a bum. The matter of the fact is that the Bucs’ running back everyone is raving about, Jacquizz Rodgers, has never sniffed mediocrity outside of a few games against lousy defenses. Someone has to win the lion’s share of the carries while Doug Martin is out and my money is on Sims, who might just perform well enough to claim the starting gig outright.
#8 Curtis Samuel (WR – CAR)
Mike Tagliere loves Devin Funchess, and for good reason, but Samuel is my pick of the litter. I think everyone can agree that there will be a load of targets to go around with Ted Ginn gone, Greg Olsen getting old and Kelvin Benjamin looking like a retired offensive lineman. Curtis has been glowing in OTAs even more than top-10 pick, Christian McCaffery. Don’t sleep on Samuel taking on a Percy Harvin type of role in this offense and using his speed and elusivety to catch defenses off-guard as a rookie. There are few players with an ADP around 190 who are both electric and due for touches. Samuel is the president of that club so bet on the upside and cross your fingers.
#7 Marlon Mack (RB – IND)
The producer of the FantasyPros Football Podcast kindly pointed out to me that Frank Gore has had a vastly underrated career. His 13,000 career yards are extremely impressive and there is no denying that, but it can also be true that he has been one of the worst starting running backs in football over the past two seasons, is 34 years old and doesn’t fit the scheme of Andrew Luck‘s offense. There is a reason the Colts spent draft capital on Mack and it is because they expect him to be the heir to Gore. Now whether that happens in 2018 or Week 3 this year is yet to be determined, but it is worth noting that older running backs tend to get injured fairly often and that Mack would be stepping into a fantastic situation, built ideally for a player of his skill set.
#6 Wayne Gallman (RB – NYG)
The Giants’ rookie just edges out Mack because Paul Perkins has less staying power than Gore. Perkins did pick up the pace to close the season, but it was against some underwhelming opponents, to say the least. Prior to those three contests, he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. Most importantly, they drafted him in the 5th round so it is fair to say his leash is short. Gallman, meanwhile, is great on the goal-line with terrific instincts and wiggle. He always gets the extra yard and for those reasons, I think he will flat out beat Perkins in an open pre-season competition for the starting job. A few years ago, some of us were gifted with an undrafted Alfred Morris winning the starting job and carrying fantasy teams. That could be Gallman for the Giants this season.
#5 Zay Jones (WR – BUF)
The Buffalo Bills lost 225 targets from last season. That is 49% of the passes they threw! You’ve got to imagine Sammy Watkins will pick up 60 of those targets if he stays healthy, but that leaves 165 for Zay, Corey Brown and Andrew Holmes to split. There is no doubt that Jones is the best of that bunch seeing that he had a whopping 157 receptions last season with 1,746 receiving yards in just 12 games. He is driven and polished but most importantly, a perfect fit for this offense who needs someone who can get open across the field from Watkins. You can expect Top 40 wide receiver production out of this rookie who is currently being drafted as the 66th wideout off the board. That friends, is the very definition of a sleeper.
#4 Jonathan Williams (RB – BUF)
While Jones is a rare safe bet among sleepers, this is where we start turning to players with significant upside. Williams fits the bill as one of the few backs who would immediately become a top 15 running back should his starter get injured. Seeing that LeSean McCoy has missed some time in three of the previous five seasons, it seems like a gamble worth making. Even if he isn’t injured, Williams can help you this season thanks to Buffalo’s best run blocking unit in all of football. Their running backs saw an almost unbelievable 2.88 yards per carry before contact. The next best in football was all the way down at 2.37. McCoy has seen just 437 rushes over the past two seasons despite Buffalo running the ball over 1,000 times. There are going to be a ton of carries up for grabs with Mike Gillislee moving over to New England and Williams is clearly the next man up. The Bills had 29 rushing touchdowns last season and you can bet your bottom dollar Williams will get his hands all over that.
#3 James Conner (RB – PIT)
While Buffalo may have the best offensive line in football, Pittsburgh has the best situation for running backs in that they feed one workhorse in every single game. That means that Connor won’t contribute much when Le’Veon Bell is healthy, but if and when Le’Veon is off the field, Connor would become a legitimate top 8 running back in virtually any matchup. DeAngelo Williams had to start 14 games over the past two seasons and don’t forget that Bell was injured again in the playoffs last season. In those 14 games, DeAngelo had 298 carries for 1,250 yards and 15 touchdowns as a 32 and 33-year-old. Connor isn’t the same quality of running back a Williams was, but considering he is still just 22 years old, there is plenty of gas in the tank and his hard fought, bruising style of running fits in perfectly with the Steelers’ scheme.
#2 Chris Conley (WR – KC)
We talked earlier about Michael Thomas and Kenny Golladay at the combine, but Conley blew them both out of the water with his 4.35 forty-yard-dash and his record breaking jumps. Alex Smith may not be the best quarterback in the league for hitting a deep-target like Conley, but if Patrick Mahomes steps in, we could see serious fireworks. Even with Smith at QB, Conley is going to see more snaps than perhaps any other wide receiver going after #180 in drafts and when you add that with elite athleticism, sometimes you get huge breakouts. Tyreek Hill is clearly the #1 on this team, but he is by no means a possession wide receiver so you can expect Conley to absorb plenty of targets when they aren’t using gimmick plays built for Hill.
#1 Kevin White (WR – CHI)
It is basically cheating to qualify White a sleeper, but he is going at pick #159. Last season, he was being drafted in the top 100 and the only thing that changed is that the Bears got rid of Alshon Jeffrey and added a more accurate passer. White averaged 2.5 targets per quarter last season which was only matched by Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans and Julian Edelman. When White was on the field, he saw 14 more targets in three and a half games than “alpha dog” Alshon Jeffrey and for good reason. Kevin is twice the physical specimen Alshon is and he set the world on fire with his combine after shredding double and triple coverage against the best teams in college football including Alabama and Oklahoma for 316 yards in two games. When he came out of college, he was one of the best wide receiver prospects in five years and we still haven’t seen him on the field. Imagine him as if you are drafting Corey Davis three seasons from now, only you get him in the 14th round.
Just Missed The Cut
Rex Burkhead (RB – NE)
Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
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