The dog days of August are upon us, which is when a lot of fantasy baseball managers begin to get distracted by things like beach vacations and fantasy football. But if we’re able to stay focused on our baseball lineups through the season’s final third, the reward could be sweet, sweet championship glory in October. So I’m glad you’re still with us for another rundown of two-start pitchers!
This is shaping up as a strong week for two-start options. But remember that probable pitchers are always subject to change, and that’s particularly true this week with the July 31 trade deadline just days away and plenty of big name pitchers on the trade block. If you want some instant analysis on a deadline deal or just want my opinion on your team, you can shoot me a message on Twitter.
Now, on to the two-start rankings.
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Too Big To Fail
1. Chris Sale (8/1 vs. CLE, 8/6 vs. CHW)
Sale has the most fantasy points of any starting pitcher in standard CBS leagues, so you’re obviously starting him if you own him. A juicy home start against his rebuilding former team is just icing on the cake.
2. Madison Bumgarner (7/31 @OAK, 8/5 vs. ARI)
Bumgarner looked a bit rusty in his first two starts back from the disabled list, but his velocity is trending in the right direction, and he twirled five innings of one-run ball in his last start against Pittsburgh. In an ideal world, we’d get to see Bumgarner string together a few good starts before declaring him all the way back, but there’s simply no way you’re sitting him. Oh, and the A’s and Diamondbacks both rank bottom five in OPS against lefties (although the J.D. Martinez trade will surely help Arizona in that regard).
3. Luis Severino (7/31 vs. DET, 8/5 @CLE)
Severino currently sits ninth in points in CBS leagues, and his FIP and xFIP both back up his impressive 3.03 ERA. He’s given up just one earned run in 21 innings over his last three starts, and is a must-start option at this point.
The Next Best Thing
4. Carlos Carrasco (8/1 @BOS, 8/6 vs. NYY)
Carrasco is having another excellent fantasy season, and would likely be in the top tier like he was last week if the matchups were a bit more favorable. The Boston matchup isn’t bad, but the Yankees are a top-three offense against right-handers.
5. Jimmy Nelson (8/1 vs. STL, 8/6 @TB)
Nelson is in the midst of a breakout season and currently ranks as a top-15 fantasy starter. He is one of only 10 qualified starters that are striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings, and among that group, only Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and Clayton Kershaw have a lower walk rate than Nelson. St. Louis and Tampa Bay are both solid against right-handed pitching, but Nelson has earned the right to be in just about all fantasy lineups.
6. Gio Gonzalez (7/31 @MIA, 8/6 @CHC)
Gio has burned me too many times over the years to join the top tier, but let me give credit where credit is due: he’s having a heck of a fantasy season. His low BABIP allowed and high strand rate both suggest some significant regression is in store, but his 2.81 ERA can rise quite a bit without killing his fantasy value, particularly with the Nationals’ potent offense supporting him. Both the Marlins and Cubs rank in the top half of the league in OPS against lefties, but Nat Gio is still worth starting in most leagues.
7. Brad Peacock (7/31 vs. TB, 8/5 vs. TOR)
Peacock has been coming up aces since he joined the Astros rotation, as I detailed in this space last week. A rain delay robbed him of a win in one of his two starts last week, but he won five straight starts before that. The Tampa Bay game is no gimme, but the Blue Jays have become a matchup to exploit this year.
8. Aaron Nola (8/1 @LAA, 8/6 @COL)
Nola got off to a rough start this season, but he’s more than made up for it of late and is now on his way to his best fantasy season of his young career. Since June 22, he sports an incredible 1.49 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9. He would be higher on this list if not for a trip to Coors Field, where the Rockies unsurprisingly have the highest OPS of any home team in baseball.
9. Carlos Martinez (8/1 @MIL, 8/6 @CIN)
Martinez hasn’t been quite as good as he was in 2015 or 2016, but that’s mostly a function of an elevated HR/FB rate that should begin to normalize over time. He is giving up more hard contact and more fly balls this season, but that could well just be a statistical anomaly.
Martinez has given up five earned runs in three of his last five starts, and he has fairly difficult road starts against the Brewers and Reds on the schedule. But Martinez’s track record of success is too long to seriously entertain sitting him.
10. Chris Archer (8/1 @HOU, 8/6 vs. MIL)
Archer is 10th in fantasy points among starters in CBS leagues, but he’s struggled to go deep in games or keep opponents off the scoreboard in recent weeks. While Archer has rarely been hit hard, he’s managed to complete the seventh inning just once in his last nine starts, and he’s given up at least three runs six times during that stretch.
That said, he has continued to pile up quality starts and strikeouts, which explains why he ranks so high in points leagues. The matchups are far from ideal — especially the Astros, who lead the league in OPS against right-handers — but Archer remains a pitcher who should be utilized in most leagues.
11. Yu Darvish (8/1 vs. SEA, 8/6 @MIN)
This is one you’ll have to watch closely, as Darvish’s name has been swirling in trade talks. Darvish was shellacked for 10 runs by the Marlins in his last start, taking his ERA over 4.00 for the season. His velocity and hard contact rate allowed appear to be fine, but he’s getting fewer strikeouts for unexplained reasons, as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron recently pointed out. The matchups this week are just fine, but it’s hard to know exactly which version of Darvish will show up — or if he’ll show up in a Texas uniform at all.
Decent Options
12. Michael Fulmer (7/31 @NYY, 8/5 @BAL)
Fulmer has been a top-15 starting pitcher in CBS points leagues up to this point, but his ERA is over 4.00 since the start of June. His peripherals don’t exactly scream regression, but his lowly 6.36 K/9 tells you pretty clearly that he isn’t a fantasy ace. Add in the fact that he has a couple fairly tough matchups on deck, and it’s hard to get too excited about his prospects, at least in the short term.
13. Sean Manaea (8/1 vs. SF, 8/6 @LAA)
Manaea is having a very solid fantasy season (3.82 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.76 K/9), and his peripherals support what he’s done so far. The reason he ranks so high on this list, though, is the matchups: Both the Giants and Angels rank in the bottom five in OPS against southpaws.
14. Jeff Samardzija (8/1 @OAK, 8/6 vs. ARI)
Samardzija’s ERA is 4.85, but his peripherals say he should be an ace. His 8.59 K/BB ratio is far and away the best in baseball, and his xFIP and SIERA are both in line with pitchers who are having top-five fantasy seasons.
Shark had been pitching much better until he had two rough starts against the Padres of all teams and then followed up that brief rough patch with a great start against the Pirates. The matchups this week are just so-so, but I still believe the best from Samardzija is yet to come.
15. Kenta Maeda (8/1 @ATL, 8/6 @NYM)
Like most Dodgers starters, Maeda is a worthy option when he has a place in the rotation. He hasn’t been quite as good as he was last year, but he hasn’t been too far off, either. Maeda is highly unlikely to go deep into games — a valid concern in leagues that count quality starts — but he’s given up one or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts, and is always a good bet for a win with the Dodgers’ lineup and bullpen supporting him.
16. Jake Arrieta (8/1 vs. ARI, 8/6 vs. WAS)
While Arrieta’s season-long numbers are still very uninspiring, he has posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in five starts in July. But before you get too excited and declare Arrieta back, don’t overlook that his strikeout rate has plummeted as the season has gone along. In July, he struck out just 6.47 batters per nine innings but was bailed out by an unsustainably low .163 BABIP allowed. His matchups are pretty scary — the Diamondbacks and Nationals both rank top-five in OPS vs. right-handers — so don’t be shocked if Arrieta takes another step backward this week.
17. C.C. Sabathia (8/1 vs. DET, 8/6 @CLE)
Sabathia looked like he had discovered the fountain of youth until it all came crashing down in his last start against the Rays. He’s still on track to finish with his lowest ERA since 2012 — but he’s also on pace to finish with his lowest strikeout rate since 2004 and his highest walk rate since 2002. The support of the Yankees’ lineup makes Sabathia a viable streamer, but a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted here.
18. Felix Hernandez (7/31 @TEX, 8/5 @KC)
King Felix managed to string three good starts together before surrendering four runs in 5 ⅔ innings in his last turn against the Red Sox. There are some reasons to think Hernandez can still be a decent fantasy starter; he’s revived his strikeout rate after it bottomed out last year, and his 23.3 percent HR/FB rate is sure to drop over time.
On the other hand, he’s been a bit fortunate with his strand rate, and his velocity simply isn’t what it once was. There’s still a time and place to use Hernandez — and this week’s matchups could qualify.
19. Danny Duffy (7/31 @BAL, 8/5 vs. SEA)
Duffy’s 3.56 ERA looks a lot like his 3.51 ERA last year, but his K/9 rate has dropped from 9.42 to just 7.04. He’s also benefiting from a minuscule 5.8 percent HR/FB ratio that will likely increase significantly, which is an especially big deal for a pitcher like Duffy who rarely gets hitters to hit the ball on the ground. Some negative regression looks inevitable, but at least Duffy faces two teams this week that are below average against left-handers.
20. Charlie Morton (8/1 vs. TB, 8/6 vs. TOR)
Morton was a below average pitcher during his first nine seasons in the Major Leagues, so perhaps it’s not surprising that he remains unowned in more than half of Yahoo leagues. But since he returned from the disabled list on July 7, Morton has compiled a 3.28 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 rate, all while pitching with run support from the best offense in the league. His peripherals back up his performance, so he’s worth rolling out there in many leagues as long as he continues to miss bats at this rate.
21. Alex Cobb (7/31 @HOU, 8/5 vs. MIL)
Cobb is currently in the midst of his best stretch of performances since before he had Tommy John surgery. Since June 9, he has a 2.24 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. However, he also has a K/9 rate of just 5.3 during that timespan and has benefitted from an unsustainable .207 BABIP allowed. Without the strikeouts, I’m fairly skeptical that Cobb’s fantasy success will last, and his hot streak could fizzle out in a hurry against a loaded Astros lineup.
22. Mike Clevinger (7/31 @BOS, 8/5 vs. NYY)
Clevinger’s last start against the Angels didn’t go as planned (five earned runs in 4⅓ innings), but before that, he had given up just five runs in his previous 33 innings. His 9.98 K/9 rate is impressive, but he’ll need to cut down on the 4.48 walks per nine innings if he hopes to have sustained success at the Major League level. Still, he’s pitching well enough overall to be given a long look as a streamer with season-long upside.
If You’re Desperate
23. Cole Hamels (7/31 vs. SEA, 8/5 @MIN)
I made the case against Hamels about a month ago, and nothing I’ve seen from him since has changed my mind. His 3.51 ERA and 0.90 WHIP since July 1 may look good, but they come with an anemic 6.8 K/9 rate. Hamels’ velocity is way down this year, and until the MPH and Ks come up, you’re banking on little more than name recognition here.
24. Jose Berrios (8/1 @SD, 8/6 vs. TEX)
Berrios has had an encouraging season after last year’s debacle, but the wheels have begun to come off a bit of late. Over his last six starts, Berrios has a 5.76 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. There’s a decent argument for sitting him, but the matchup against the Padres at Petco is too enticing to pass up in many leagues.
25. Mike Foltynewicz (7/31 @PHI, 8/5 vs. MIA)
Since June 18, Foltynewicz has put together a 2.95 ERA and 9.7 K/9, albeit with a bloated 1.34 WHIP. His season-long FIP and xFIP both indicate that his 3.82 ERA is due for a bit of regression, and he can’t afford too much of that if he’s going to remain a streamer candidate in standard fantasy leagues. But he’s not an awful option this week, for the Phillies matchup if nothing else.
26. Jameson Taillon (8/1 vs. CIN, 8/6 vs. SD)
The fact that Taillon is even pitching during the same season he had surgery for testicular cancer is impressive, and he looked to be rounding into form before getting hammered for nine runs in his last start against the Giants. Before that start, Taillon had a 2.87 ERA and 10.0 K/9 since returning from the disabled list on June 12. At this point, he has to be considered a risky starting option, but the upside is significant, and the start against the Padres is appealing.
27. Patrick Corbin (8/1 @CHC, 8/6 @SF)
Corbin has been pitching fairly well of late, with a 2.83 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 9.4 K/9 since June 16. Corbin’s season-long peripherals also indicate that he could improve a bit on his 4.36 ERA. The Cubs start is a bit scary, but the Giants start could make up for it if you’re digging deep for streaming options.
28. Paul Blackburn (7/31 vs. SF, 8/5 @LAA)
Blackburn has a 2.25 ERA through his first five Major League starts, but he looks to be doing it with smoke and mirrors. His 3.38 K/9 and .224 BABIP allowed mean it’s only a matter of time until Blackburn’s results suffer. However, he’s facing the two worst teams in the league in OPS against right-handers, so desperate owners can hope the Blackburn magic continues for at least one more week.
Just Say No
29. Marco Estrada (7/31 @CHW, 8/6 @HOU)
30. Ian Kennedy (8/1 @BAL, 8/6 vs. SEA)
31. Ricky Nolasco (8/1 vs. PHI, 8/6 vs. OAK)
32. Jose Urena (7/31 vs. WAS, 8/6 @ATL)
33. Jeff Hoffman (8/1 vs. NYM, 8/6 vs. PHI)
34. Andrew Moore (8/1 @TEX, 8/6 @KC)
35. Mike Pelfrey (8/1 vs. TOR, 8/6 @BOS)
36. Steven Matz (8/1 @COL, 8/6 vs. LAD)
37. Nick Pivetta (7/31 vs. ATL, 8/5 @COL)
38. Anibal Sanchez (8/1 @NYY, 8/6 @BAL)
39. James Shields (7/31 vs. TOR, 8/5 @BOS)
40. Homer Bailey (8/1 @PIT, 8/6 vs. STL)
41. Ubaldo Jimenez (7/31 vs. KC, 8/5 vs. DET)
Estrada had his best start since May on July 26, and it wasn’t even that great: 5 IP, 2 ERs, 4 Ks, seven baserunners. He’s been a massively underrated fantasy option the last couple years, and he could certainly return to form eventually. But after this brutal stretch, I wouldn’t even consider starting him until he strings at least three good starts together…Kennedy has a 4.43 ERA, and nothing in his peripherals suggest he’s a better pitcher than that. In fact, his dropping strikeout rate, rising walk rate, and low BABIP allowed all indicate that things could get worse from here…Matz may turn out to be a good fantasy starter someday, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen in 2017.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.