Just yesterday we covered some of the wide receivers whose targets should take a rather significant fall in 2017 (you can read that right here). While the skill may be there to justify the workload they received last year, numbers don’t lie. We know what the typical target shares are for each position, and today’s group is no different.

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We’ll be continuing our target regression series with the running back position, highlighting those who are unlikely to see the number of targets they did last year. Some are obvious, while others are tougher. As mentioned in the wide receivers article, it could be because of a variety of factors. Maybe their own talent doesn’t call for that heavy of a workload, maybe the talent is getting better around them, or maybe even a coaching or a quarterback change. Whatever the case, expect regression from these running backs in the receiving department.

Le’Veon Bell (PIT – RB) 2016 Targets: 94 (21.4 percent target share)
Most will look at Bell’s number of targets and think, “hmm, he’s still short of David Johnson, so this is repeatable.” That is until you realize that he missed four complete games and find out his target share was higher than all but 23 wide receivers. Bell’s 7.8 targets per game is rather ridiculous when you think about it, considering his 6.6 yards per target would be among the worst wide receivers in the game. Does it mean he shouldn’t get them? Absolutely not, it’s what makes him dangerous, but this is simply too much. Considering the starting wide receivers behind Antonio Brown last year were Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers, it’s easy to see why it was possible. With Martavis Bryant and JuJu Smith-Schuster joining the squad, Bell should return to his normal range, which was about around 5.6 targets per game, which would still rank in the top three. 2017 Prediction: 107 targets (down on a per-game basis)

David Johnson (ARI – RB) 2016 Targets: 120 (18.6 percent target share)
I know what you’re thinking, “Mike, why can’t we have nice things?” Projecting Johnson for less than 1,000 yards receiving isn’t the cool thing to do, but let’s be realistic when looking at what happened in 2016. Below is the chart of top-three targeted backs from each of the last eight years, and as you can see, there have been just nine running backs to eclipse 100 targets, let alone 120 of them. With Michael Floyd having his issues and being released, John Brown dealing with his sickle cell trait and cyst on his spine, Chris Johnson getting hurt, and Jaron Brown getting hurt, the Cardinals needed him to step up and be the player he was in 2016. With that being said, you’d be betting against historical odds to project him for anything more than 105 targets. 2017 Prediction: 108 targets

Giovani Bernard (CIN – RB) 2016 Targets: 51 (16.1 percent target share)
It seems as if Bernard may not be ready for the start of the 2017 season after tearing his ACL in Week 11 of 2016. He was already in for some regression considering A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert were seemingly never on the field together, but they’ve now added both John Ross and Joe Mixon in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. It’ll be tough for Ross to make a big impact in his rookie season, but Mixon’s best talent is catching the ball out of the backfield, seemingly replacing Bernard in the offense. His 16.1 percent target share was the fourth-highest in the NFL, behind only Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Theo Riddick. Most players can come back from a torn ACL just fine nowadays, but Bernard has many more obstacles than his injury. 2017 Prediction: 32 targets

Demarco Murray (TEN – RB) 2016 Targets: 67 (13.4 percent target share)
Most seem to think that last year’s success will automatically lead to future success for Murray, but there are some red flags in his production. Not only did his rushing production go down as the season went on, but his target share of 13.4 percent ranked seventh among running backs, a number that’s likely to go down. The 67 targets were also the most of his career. The Titans brought in Eric Decker, snagged Corey Davis at No. 5 overall in the draft and even added Taywan Taylor in the third round. It seems that the Titans wanted to focus on upgrading the wide receiver corps in order to allow Marcus Mariota to spread his wings rather than dump off to Murray. The Titans have also said they’ll continue to increase Derrick Henry’s role. Murray’s 81 percent of snaps was second in the NFL last year among running backs, a number that should max out at around 70 percent this year. He’s going to catch passes, but you shouldn’t be shocked to see his targets closer to the 50 mark in 2017. 2017 Prediction: 57 targets

Melvin Gordon (LAC – RB) 2016 Targets: 57 (13.4 percent target share)
Another player who missed essentially four games, so his target numbers were suppressed from where they would have wound up, had he played the entire season. With Gordon, this happened simply out of necessity because of the injuries to Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, and even Branden Oliver. When looking at the Chargers and projecting their offense, you want to find ways to get Allen his targets, get last year’s breakout Tyrell Williams his targets, progress Hunter Henry in his second season, and even find some targets for rookie Mike Williams and last year’s free agent acquisition Travis Benjamin. Also keep in mind that Oliver saw 60 targets in a very minimal role in 2014-2015. Gordon flashed receiving chops last year, which is great, but don’t count on close to five targets per game like he saw last year. 2017 Prediction: 54 targets (down on a per-game basis)

T.J. Yeldon (JAX – RB) 2016 Targets: 68 (11.6 percent target share)
His target share doesn’t sound ridiculous after seeing those above him on this list, but Yeldon is in for regression with the offense as a whole. The Jaguars have revamped their organization, including coaches and their defense, which suggests they’ll be throwing much less in 2017. With the addition of Leonard Fournette, Yeldon will now come off the bench, and although he’ll still be their primary passing-down back, his targets are going to come down. He played 52 percent of the snaps in 2016, which was the fifth-most in the league. His snaps are likely to dip down into the 25-35 percent range in 2017, making it very unlikely that he totals any more than 40-50 targets. 2017 Prediction: 48 targets

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.