Every year we see it, yet some are surprised by it. Players taking a dramatic turn in drafts, despite us feeling like we have a handle on their situation. Earlier in the offseason, I tried to predict which players would see the biggest spike in ADP (average draft position). While most of them did in fact move up draft boards, there are some new players based on preseason performances (or lack thereof) who are shifting dramatically. We’ll touch on those players in this article and discuss whether or not their shift is going too far in the wrong direction.

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The Risers (Moving Up Boards)

Kareem Hunt (KC – RB) Current ADP: 58 overall
This isn’t the end of his rise and it shouldn’t be, either. Earlier this offseason I’d said that if Spencer Ware didn’t have to compete with Hunt, he’d be a second-round pick. Hunt was immediately named the starter upon Ware going down, which tells me that Andy Reid feels comfortable with the rookie. He is now worth a third-round pick in all formats and could be considered even in the late second-round.

DeVante Parker (MIA – WR) Current ADP: 90 overall
This was one you should’ve seen coming, as he was in my “Players Who Will Move Up” article last month. My estimation at that point was to go from the WR45 to the WR36. Since Jay Cutler arrived, it only moved the needle a bit further. The Dolphins chose not to talk extension with Jarvis Landry, further lending credibility to the Parker hype.

Chris Carson (SEA – RB) Current ADP: 170 overall
This is one that no one saw coming, as Carson was able to take advantage of the Thomas Rawls injury and Eddie Lacy ineffectiveness. He played plenty of snaps with the No. 1 offense in the preseason, making it possible that he’s the guy to own. He’s a great guy to take a shot on in the final rounds of your draft, but truth be told, this offensive line isn’t likely to produce a consistent running back.

Ted Ginn (NO – WR) Current ADP: 148
I’m honestly shocked that Ginn hasn’t moved up even further than this, seeing he is a starting wide receiver in base formations for Drew Brees. Most assumed that Willie Snead would see the bump in targets with Brandin Cooks gone, but it appears the Saints have a big role planned for Ginn. He’s going to be a headache because of the ups and downs, but as someone being taken outside the top 50 wide receivers, he’s worth it.

Kevin White (CHI – WR) Current ADP: 178 overall
This one is out of necessity, as the Bears will need to lean heavily on the former No. 7 overall draft pick. Once Cameron Meredith went down, White moved into my top 45 wide receivers on volume alone. He may not be the player the Bears thought he was coming out of college, but he doesn’t need to in order to beat his ADP, which sits as the 62nd wide receiver off the board. Kendall Wright is another one to keep your eyes on.

Chris Hogan (NE – WR) Current ADP: 140 overall
Another mover due to injury, most seem to think Hogan will see the lion share of targets left by Julian Edelman. It is a whole lot of targets (Edelman saw almost 10 per game over the last four years), but it’s just as likely that Danny Amendola or Malcolm Mitchell sees an increase in targets. In fact, the running backs may also see a large chunk of them. Hogan is great in a best ball league, but in redraft, I’d rather have Kevin White.

Dalvin Cook (MIN – RB) Current ADP: 33 overall
This one is puzzling to me, as Cook was someone going in the 60-70 overall range just a month ago. Sure, he’s looked competent in preseason, but Latavius Murray isn’t going to just go away. The Vikings have both of them and will use them for different things, as they will with Jerick McKinnon. With so many mouths on a non-top-10 scoring offense, with a questionable offensive line, it’s best to avoid paying this high price, as you’re paying for his ceiling.

The Fallers (Moving Down Draft Boards)

Eddie Lacy (SEA – RB) Current ADP: 87 overall
This is one we didn’t see coming, as Lacy was brought in to take the lead role for the Seahawks after seeing Thomas Rawls struggle in 2016. He’s now in a competition with three other running backs, making him a very risky pick in the seventh round. His fall holds weight (no, pun not intended).

Sammy Watkins (LAR – WR) Current ADP: 53 overall
While we anticipated a drop-off in Watkins’ ADP, going as the No. 24 wide receiver was further than expected. The downgrade from Tyrod Taylor to Jared Goff was a concern, but the volume should help compensate for that. He should be a low-end WR2 based on volume alone, which makes him a value at his current price.

Corey Davis (TEN – WR) Current ADP: 111 overall
This is what happens when you don’t play in the preseason. Davis was coming off the board in the 75-80 range a month ago, but has now slipped and is being drafted after his teammate Eric Decker. He was arguably overpriced to begin with, so this is more of the area to take a flier on him.

Samaje Perine (WAS – RB) Current ADP: 107 overall
This is one I was wrong on, as I figured Perine would only move up draft boards. He was flying up boards until Rob Kelley was the clear-cut starter in each of the preseason games. It’s going to take some time for Perine to overtake him as the starter, so his ADP is getting closer to where it should be. He’s a high-risk stash that won’t contribute for at least a couple weeks.

Joe Mixon (CIN – RB) Current ADP: 36 overall
He was another one who I said would move up rankings, and he did, though his ADP wound up in between where it started and where it peaked. As talented as Mixon is, he is in a timeshare with Jeremy Hill (who is still the starter) and Gio Bernard. He’ll end up the leader in this timeshare, but his ADP needed to come down, and even further than it is at this moment.

Joe Williams (SF – RB) Current ADP: 161 overall
He should be undrafted in fantasy leagues, it never made sense why he was being drafted as high as he was. His ADP will continue to fall.

Andrew Luck (IND – QB) Current ADP: 71 overall
This is the million-dollar question of ADP movers – will Andrew Luck return early enough to provide value at his current draft position as the 10th quarterback off the board? If he misses just two games, my answer would be a resounding “yes.” He’s fallen outside the top eight rounds inside some of the drafts I’ve done. If you can snag him there, do it, and pair him with Carson Palmer who has great schedule to start the season (Lions, Colts).

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.