I share a team with a close friend of mine, and we start the year off with $300 in FAAB. Every year around Week 2 or 3, we have the same conversation. Some running back or wide receiver (think Tarik Cohen or Kerwynn Williams) suddenly becomes fantasy-relevant, and my partner wants to put in some insane bid for the player. And he always says the same thing: “I mean, what are we really going to hold onto our FAAB for anyway?”

As a co-owner of a team that was invested in Tyrod Taylor and the Green Bay running back situation, I’m hoping this year’s lesson will stick a bit more. Things in the NFL get crazy, and you’re often times going to need to dig deep on the waiver wire to find a way to survive injuries and bye weeks, even this late in the season.

If you’ve been reading this article all year, you know how it goes. I’ll discuss one start or sit from each position, which represents a player I have ranked significantly higher or lower than the expert consensus rankings. We’re only talking the borderline calls here – if you’re sitting with Antonio Brown, you go right ahead and start him.

I’ll also add a few other names that I am higher or lower on than the expert consensus. That will give you plenty of opportunities to yell at me for those decisions.  (Note: if you want to see my rankings for the week, I always tweet them out by Thursday morning at @danharris80. They will show you exactly how many spots higher or lower I am than the ECR.)

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Quarterback

Start

Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB at MIA): ECR of 18
Fitzpatrick did not play well against the Jets on Sunday, though he thankfully threw a late touchdown pass to somewhat salvage his fantasy day. But this week should be a lot better for the formerly-bearded wonder, for a few reasons. For one thing, the Dolphins pass defense is starting to break down (and wasn’t really very good to begin with), as evidenced by the shellacking that Cam Newton laid on them on Monday night. Fitzpatrick knows them well, having played against them nine times, and they’re coming off a short week. And most important, Mike Evans returns from suspension. If you watched Fitzpatrick with the Jets, you know that he is more than willing to pepper his best option with targets consistently, and just let the receiver do the work. Expect a heavy, heavy dose of Mike Evans here, and look for Fitz to put up solid numbers.

Others I’m higher on than ECR: Blaine Gabbert (ARI at HOU) (assuming he plays, of course), Mitchell Trubisky (CHI v. DET)

Sit

Eli Manning (NYG v. KC): ECR of 17
As I say pretty much every week, I rarely have major disagreements with ECR over quarterback rankings, and we’re usually quibbling over a couple of spots, at most. The Chiefs allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, yes, and they struggle to contain slot receivers, so Manning should be able to go to Sterling Shepard often. But you should all know by now that you don’t mess with an Andy Reid-coached team off a bye. Reid’s teams are 16-2 off a bye week, and his defenses have held opponents to 17 or fewer points in 13 of 18 games after a bye. In the end, the Giants have two solid but not elite options in the passing game, and it’s a good bet that Reid, given extra time to prepare, will figure out how to slow them down. Considering Manning’s ceiling is relatively limited anyway, there are other borderline options I’d prefer.

Others I’m lower on than ECR: Matt Ryan (ATL at SEA).

Running Back

Start

Jamaal Williams (GB v. BAL): ECR of 26
I’m working under the assumption that Ty Montgomery either won’t be able to suit up or will be limited to third-down work on Sunday – if he’s a full-go, you can likely assume that I’ll have him ranked closer to his ECR come Sunday. But for now, Williams jumps into start designation, despite a difficult matchup against a rested Ravens team. Williams has not been special this season by any means, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and getting surpassed on the depth chart by Aaron Jones fairly quickly. But opportunity is half the battle, and Williams should get a ton of that on Sunday. The Ravens offense is far from explosive, so it’s unlikely that the Packers will be looking at a significantly negative game script here. Given Brett Hundley‘s struggles, Mike McCarthy will likely want to stick with the run as much as possible, particularly given the strength of the Baltimore secondary. Williams should get a heavy workload in this one, and his volume alone makes him a solid RB2 in my book.

Others I’m higher on than ECR: Latavius Murray (MIN v. LAR), Javorius Allen (BAL at GB), Rod Smith (DAL v. PHI), J.D. McKissic (SEA v. ATL)

Sit

Isaiah Crowell (CLE v. JAC): ECR of 20
Things working in Crowell’s favor include that he’s scored a touchdown in two straight games, has at least 67 total yards in five straight games, and that the Jaguars are far more generous to opposing running backs (10th-most fantasy points allowed) than to opposing quarterbacks or wide receivers. But the fact is that Crowell has gotten repeated work because, unlike in the early part of the season, the Browns have largely kept the score close in recent weeks. Although the Jaguars do not have an elite offense by any means, Leonard Fournette and company will certainly put up points, and what are the chances that DeShone Kizer avoids multiple crushing turnovers against that elite Jags defense?

Crowell has done more than enough to warrant fantasy consideration, but he’s more of a borderline RB2 at best for me in this one.

Others I’m lower on than ECR: Alfred Morris (DAL v. PHI), Duke Johnson (CLE v. JAC) (apparently I just don’t like the Cleveland running game this week), Theo Riddick (DET at CHI)

Wide Receiver

Start

Mohamed Sanu (ATL at SEA): ECR of 37
Sanu continues to see healthy targets opposite Julio Jones, and he generally makes a fairly reliable WR3. He falls outside that range in the early ECR, likely because of the tough matchup on national television with Seattle. But Richard Sherman is out for the season, and while the Seahawks defense will still be strong, the injury is obviously a hit to their ability to contain the pass. Julio Jones will probably see extra attention here, which will likely leave Sanu to see considerable targets as Matt Ryan looks to try to keep up with the Seattle offense. In the teams’ two meetings last year (one of which came in the playoffs), Sanu saw 15 targets, catching nine of them 91 yards and two scores. Expect similar involvement this week, which keeps him firmly in the WR3 range with upside.

Others I’m higher on than ECR: Emmanuel Sanders (DEN v. CIN), Ted Ginn (NO v. WAS), Paul Richardson (SEA v. ATL), Kenny Stills (MIA v. TB)

Sit

Corey Davis (TEN at PIT): ECR of 35
I have been bullish on Davis all season as someone who can be a difference-maker down the stretch, and I remain so, particularly in light of the Titans’ upcoming schedule. And, frankly, it would not at all surprise me if Davis does well on Thursday night against the Steelers, now that Joe Haden is out. Davis got 10 targets last week against the Bengals and would’ve had a touchdown had he not fumbled the ball just before the end zone. But even without Haden, and putting aside a few monstrous plays allowed against the Colts last week, the Steelers are very tough on opposing wide receivers. The one true weakness in the Steelers’ secondary is Cody Sensabaugh, and he’ll likely be matched up against Rishard Matthews. For me, where I own Davis, I’m almost universally keeping him on my bench this week, and preparing to deploy him with confidence beginning in Week 12.

Others I’m lower on than ECR: Kelvin Benjamin (BUF at LAC), Jordy Nelson (GB v. BAL), Josh Doctson (WAS at NO)

Tight End

You know the drill here. There isn’t usually enough of a difference in rankings to make a difference. So I’ll just briefly note a few that I’m higher or lower on than ECR.

I’m higher than ECR on: Vernon Davis (WAS at NO): ECR of 10 (I assume that the ECR is low because some assume that Jordan Reed will play. I do not and have him sixth, as of now); Julius Thomas (MIA v. TB): ECR of 21 (Let’s not go crazy, I have him 16th. But 13 targets and two touchdowns over his last two games. Worth a potential streaming option, even though the Bucs are tough on opposing tight ends.

I’m lower than ECR on: Cameron Brate (TB at MIA): ECR of 7 (Largely just because I have Davis ahead of him, but he has just two catches in his last two games. He’s still a starter, of course); Tyler Kroft (CIN at DEN): ECR of 11 (As with Brate, it’s a good matchup, just find a few other options slightly more appealing – not much to see here).

Happy streaming, friends!

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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.