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Value Picks: Points vs. 5×5 Leagues (Fantasy Baseball)

Value Picks: Points vs. 5×5 Leagues (Fantasy Baseball)

There are two kinds of people in this world: Those who read the instructions and those who don’t. I fit firmly in the first category.

When I got Legos as a kid, I followed the step-by-step process for putting them together. When I play a board game or card game for the first time, I carefully go over the rules. When I make something for my wife and daughter for dinner, I follow a recipe. When I fix something around the house — ok, I never actually do that, but you get the point!

These tendencies also help me immensely in fantasy sports, because the first rule of any fantasy sport is to know your league settings. It’s particularly important in fantasy baseball, where there are three different types of scoring systems that are frequently used: Head-to-head points leagues, head-to-head categories leagues, and rotisserie leagues.

There are some nuanced strategic elements to each scoring system, but for the purposes of this article, we’re going to look at some players whose valuations differ greatly depending on whether you play in a standard points leagues or a standard categories-based league (either head-to-head categories or roto). We’ll do so by comparing how players have performed in CBS Points Leagues vs. their value in standard 5×5 rotisserie leagues, as calculated by Baseball Monster.

What makes a player more valuable in one format or the other? A good rule of thumb for hitters is that players who walk more are better in points leagues, unless your roto/categories league uses on-base percentage instead of batting average. Players who rarely strike out also tend to be more valuable in points leagues, as are players who hit more doubles than home runs. Stolen base threats are usually much more valuable in roto/categories leagues, as are all-or-nothing sluggers who either homer or strikeout.

On the pitching side of the equation, innings-eaters are significantly more valuable in points leagues, whereas elite per-inning performers are more valuable in roto/categories. And while wins are notoriously hard to predict, offensive support is more important in roto/categories leagues than it is in point leagues, where both wins and quality starts are rewarded.

The default rankings of most league providers are presumably based on the combined rankings of their fantasy writers, who may or may not be using a particular scoring system. So this list will hopefully present you with some good buying opportunities. Generally speaking, you’ll want to reach a bit in drafts for players that have more value in your particular scoring system, and you’ll want to pass on players who have less value in your scoring system unless they fall quite a bit further than expected.

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Hitters Who Are Better In Points Leagues, Worse In Roto/Categories Leagues

Anthony Rizzo
As I briefly alluded to in my first baseman tiers, Rizzo is significantly better in points leagues than in roto/categories because he walks a lot and doesn’t strike out much. And it makes a big difference. Last year, Rizzo was the third-best first baseman in CBS points leagues and was closer in value to Paul Goldschmidt (second) than he was to Jose Abreu (fourth). In standard 5×5 leagues, Rizzo was nowhere near as valuable as Goldschmidt, less valuable than Abreu and Ryan Zimmerman (eighth in CBS points leagues), and equal in value to Eric Hosmer (sixth in CBS points leagues).

Carlos Santana
Santana is another player with a high walk rate and low strikeout rate. Last year he ranked seventh in CBS points leagues but just 12th in standard 5×5 leagues. In points leagues, he was more valuable than Freddie Freeman and Cody Bellinger; in roto leagues, he was less valuable than Justin Smoak, Mark Reynolds, and Joey Gallo.

Matt Carpenter
Carpenter’s strikeout rate last season wasn’t quite as low as Rizzo’s or Santana’s, but his 17.5 percent walk rate was the fourth-highest among qualified hitters. That and a healthy amount of doubles were enough to make him a top-12 first baseman in CBS points leagues, whereas he came in 17th at the position in 5×5 leagues.

Andrelton Simmons
This one is a bit counterintuitive — Simmons stole 19 bases last year, which would seemingly speak well for his value in 5×5 leagues. But look a bit deeper and you can see why Simmons was significantly more valuable in points leagues: He had the third-lowest strikeout rate in baseball and tied for 16th in the league in doubles, but had relatively paltry run and RBI totals, which constitute 40 percent of a player’s value in 5×5 leagues. In the end, he finished fourth among shortstops in CBS points leagues, but just ninth in 5×5 value.

Pitchers Who Are Better In Points Leagues, Worse In Roto/Categories Leagues

Zack Greinke
Greinke was much less dominant than Stephen Strasburg on a per-start basis last season, but Greinke finished ahead of Strasburg in CBS points league because of the difference in innings pitched. In standard 5×5 leagues, Strasburg was the more valuable pitcher despite throwing almost 30 fewer innings. Greinke is a workhorse who has topped 200 innings in seven of the last 10 seasons — a feat Strasburg has accomplished just once in his career — so this discrepancy could well play out the same way again in 2018.

Carlos Martinez
Thanks to a high innings total and a healthy number of quality starts, Martinez finished as the 14th-best starter in CBS points leagues while finishing outside the top-20 in standard 5×5 leagues. His ability to pitch every fifth day and go deep into games outweighs his relatively high WHIP in points leagues much more so than it does in 5×5 leagues.

Marcus Stroman
Stroman’s anemic 7.34 K/9 rate hurt him much more in 5×5 leagues, where he finished 28th among starters in 2017, than it did in CBS points leagues, where he finished 16th. In points leagues, Stroman benefits from a high innings total (he’s topped 200 innings in back-to-back seasons), strong number of quality starts, and better-than-average walk rate.

Chris Archer
Archer’s peripherals suggest he is due for quite a bit of positive regression, so he is a player I am targeting regardless of league format. Still, the pitcher he has actually been over the last couple seasons was a lot more valuable in points leagues than it was in 5×5 leagues. Last year, Archer finished as the 17th-best starter in CBS points leagues, but just the 36th-best starter in 5×5 leagues. Expected improvement in Archer’s ERA and WHIP would help him immensely in both formats, but even then he’s likely to be most valuable in points leagues due to his high innings total and the likelihood he’s better in quality starts than wins.

Hitters Who Are Better In Roto/Categories Leagues, Worse In Points Leagues

Joey Gallo
As long as you draft other players to overset Gallo’s low batting average, he should be far better in roto/categories leagues than in points leagues. Last year, Gallo finished 11th among first basemen in 5×5 value, but just 20th at the position in CBS points leagues. Gallo has a healthy walk rate, but his astronomical strikeout rate and lack of doubles drain his value in points leagues, while his massive home run total and solid steals contribution give him a boost in roto/categories formats.

Dee Gordon
Gordon is the epitome of an elite three-category contributor (average, runs, and stolen bases), and that plays a whole lot better in roto/categories leagues than it does in points leagues. He rarely draws a walk, and while his lack of home run power is well known, he also hits very few doubles. Last season, Gordon had more 5×5 value than any second baseman other than Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez, but in CBS points leagues, he was also behind Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, and Jonathan Schoop.

Trea Turner
There are a lot of people who believe Turner should be the third player selected after Mike Trout and Altuve. I’m not among them, but they have a stronger case in roto/categories leagues than points leagues. Turner’s immense stolen base upside goes a lot further in roto/categories formats, and his relatively low walk rate is less cause for concern. Last year, Turner was the fifth-best shortstop in 5×5 leagues despite playing just 98 games. In points leagues he was 12th, behind guys like Simmons, Zack Cozart, Didi Gregorius, and Jose Reyes.

Starling Marte
Marte missed half the 2017 season due to a PED suspension, but his 2016 numbers show how much more valuable he can be in roto/categories leagues than points leagues. With a high batting average and huge stolen base total combined with a relatively low walk rate and sizeable strikeout rate, Marte finished as the 12th-ranked outfielder in 5×5 leagues in 2016, but just the 30th-ranked outfielder in CBS points leagues. He looked like much the same player upon returning from his suspension last season, so expect him to continue to be a roto/categories specialist.

Pitchers Who Are Better In Roto/Categories Leagues, Worse In Points Leagues

Stephen Strasburg
In 5×5 leagues, Strasburg was the fifth-most valuable starting pitcher last year, despite pitching only 175 1/3 innings. In CBS points leagues, he was eighth. Strasburg is one of the safest bets in baseball to perform at a high level on a per-start basis, but among the least likely pitchers to remain healthy the entire season. If his innings total is even lower than 175 — as it was in 2015 and 2016 — the difference between his roto/categories league value and points league value will be even greater.

Noah Syndergaard
Syndergaard is another pitcher who is incredibly dominant on a per-start basis but unlikely to amass 200 innings. His 2017 season was ruined by injuries, but when he threw 183 2/3 innings in 2016, he finished 12th among starters in roto/categories leagues and 17th in CBS points leagues. Thor was incredibly dominant that year, but finished behind guys like J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, and Tanner Roark in points leagues because he threw fewer innings. That is much less of a concern in roto/categories leagues.

Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, And Any Other Top Closers
You certainly have to account for volatility at the position, but the top closers are almost universally more valuable in roto/categories leagues than they are in points leagues. Last year, Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel were more valuable in 5×5 leagues than all but four starting pitchers; in CBS points leagues, there were 11 starters that were more valuable than Jansen, and 12 starters worth more than Kimbrel. If you’re going to pay for saves, it makes a lot more sense to do it in a 5×5 format where saves count for 20 percent of pitching performance and innings volume isn’t the be all, end all.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter

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