With another eventful slate of NFL games in the books, it’s time to look ahead to Week 3. Are you getting ready to set your FanDuel lineups and seeking a competitive advantage? Trying to figure out who is a potential value play and who you should avoid at an inflated cost? If so, then read on my friends, and check out some of the largest pricing variations of the week to come.
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Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (MIN): $8,000 vs. BUF (+$1,100)
Cousins’ first two weeks as a Minnesota Viking have been a fantasy bonanza. With 669 passing yards and six passing touchdowns, he’s already shown incredible chemistry with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, while validating the franchise’s decision to award him a fully-guaranteed contract in the offseason. It’s unreasonable to expect him to continue to average over 330 passing yards and three touchdowns per contest, but it’s apparent that he’s a high-end QB1 value in all formats for the foreseeable future.
Next on the docket, Cousins draws a reeling Bills defense that has already surrendered six passing touchdowns on the season, while allowing 24.6 FanDuel points per contest (fourth most) to opposing quarterbacks. It’s a tantalizing matchup, but if you want the veteran signal caller in your lineup this week, you’re going to have to pay up.
Dak Prescott (DAL): $6,800 @ SEA (-$900)
Prescott led the Cowboys to their first win of the season on Sunday night, but he didn’t return much fantasy value, throwing for only 160 yards and a score against the New York Giants. In fact, if you take away his 64-yard touchdown pass to Tavon Austin, his final stat line would look like this: 15 of 24 for 96 yards and zero touchdowns. While he added 45 rushing yards on seven carries, numbers like those simply aren’t going to do a whole lot for your squad.
The fact is, Prescott has now been held to fewer than 200 passing yards in eight of his last 10 contests. I love him as a player and expect him to turn things around in the not-too-distant future, but until further notice, he’s not a startable option. With Jason Witten and Dez Bryant out of town and none of the team’s current pass catchers stepping up as of yet, a date with a suddenly vulnerable Seahawks secondary isn’t as appealing as it looks on paper. The bounce back will come, but it could take time.
Running Backs
Tevin Coleman (ATL): $7,300 vs. NO (+$1,400)
Coleman stepped in for the injured Devonta Freeman in Week 2 and proceeded to compile 125 total yards on 20 touches against the Carolina Panthers. With reports indicating that Freeman will be sidelined for two to three weeks, Coleman figures to retain a sizeable workload for at least a couple more games. Of course, with that guarantee comes a hefty adjustment to the cost of rostering him.
In Week 3, Coleman draws a New Orleans defense that has been much better against the run than the pass. In fact, this unit has held lead backs Peyton Barber and Carlos Hyde to 3.6 and 3.4 yards per carry, respectively, while only allowing one rushing touchdown to an opposing tailback over that span. New Orleans has permitted the third-fewest FanDuel points per contest (11.6) to opposing runners over the first two weeks. Coleman’s passing game usage will help him remain a viable option, but with a $1,400 spike, it might be best to look elsewhere for potential value.
Dion Lewis (TEN): $5,700 @ JAC (-$800)
Lewis is an outstanding football player, but the running back committee in Tennessee is likely going to be a headache this year. In Week 1, Lewis out-touched Derrick Henry 21-11 but in Week 2, Henry was the lead back with 18 touches to Lewis’ 15. Of course, all of this is attributable to game flow.
Lewis is a much better pass protector and receiver than Henry and is more likely to be on the field in negative game scripts and passing situations. In Week 1, Lewis saw a 71% snap share while the Titans played from behind for most of the afternoon, but a much more neutral Week 2 game script saw that number decrease to 56% as the backfield became a much more even timeshare.
Predicting game flow can be extremely complicated and often fruitless, but Lewis could be a nice option at his depressed value in a contest where the Titans are seven-point underdogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars. If the Titans fall behind, he could dominate the backfield snaps once again. While he’s a risky play, he’s a potentially phenomenal option as this value.
Wide Receivers
Will Fuller (HOU): $7,200 vs. NYG (+$900)
There’s just no way around it. Fuller and Deshaun Watson have an incredibly special kind of chemistry. In his first game back from a hamstring injury, Fuller lit up the Tennessee Titans for eight receptions, 113 yards, and a touchdown. For those keeping score at home, Fuller has produced a stunning 21-392-8 stat-line in five career games with Watson as his quarterback. That’s insane.
However, this week Fuller draws a New York Giants secondary that has been surprisingly stingy, only surrendered 191 yards to opposing wideouts (second fewest) over the first two weeks. With a $900 value increase in a more daunting matchup, he isn’t necessarily a full-on fade candidate, but a date with the Giants isn’t the fantasy dream scenario it was a year ago. Fuller is still a startable option this week, but expectations should be tempered, if only a little bit.
Tyler Lockett (SEA): $6,500 vs. DAL (-$500)
Lockett is locked in (no pun intended) as Russell Wilson’s top target with Doug Baldwin sidelined and has played 116 snaps over the first two weeks of the season. On Monday night, he absorbed five of his seven targets for 60 yards and a touchdown against an imposing Chicago Bears defense. However, he still saw a $500 drop on FanDuel this week.
That has more to do with his opponent than anything else. The Cowboys defense has done an excellent job against opposing receivers this year, allowing the second-fewest FanDuel points per contest (13.9) to the position. On Sunday night, they managed to hold Odell Beckham to a four-catch, 51-yard night.
It’s going to be tough sledding for Lockett and company in Week 3, but with an enormous snap share and an elite quarterback, he’s a risk worth taking at such a discount. Starting Wilson’s top target at WR29 cost is always a reasonably intelligent investment if you ask me.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC): $7,500 vs. SF (+$700)
Reports of Kelce’s potentially reduced role in Kansas City’s offense were premature, as the veteran tight end hooked up with Patrick Mahomes seven times for 109 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2Two against the Steelers. It was the Kelce we’ve become accustomed to seeing in recent years, and it’s clear the connection between the All-Pro tight end and his young quarterback is blossoming.
Eventually, things are going to slow down a bit unless you expect Mahomes to maintain his current 18.2% touchdown rate (spoiler alert: that’s impossible). However, I think Kelce could easily find pay-dirt again in Week 3 against a San Francisco 49ers defense that has coughed up 556 passing yards, and five touchdown passes over their first two games. Kelce’s a very costly play this week, but he’s also a locked and loaded high-end TE1 option.
Evan Engram (NYG): $5,800 @ HOU (-$700)
Engram snared seven receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown in a primetime game against the Cowboys mere days ago, so why has his FanDuel value dropped so steeply for a Week 3 contest against the Houston Texans? I’m not so sure, but you should be more than happy to capitalize.
While it’s true the Giants offense doesn’t look entirely in rhythm right now, I have no doubts about Engram as a talent, even with Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Saquon Barkley competing with him for targets. Rob Gronkowski obliterated the Texans secondary for seven catches, 123 yards, and a touchdown in Week 1 and while I’m not comparing Engram to the best tight end in the NFL, it does illustrate the Texans vulnerability against the position. I like Engram’s potential in this matchup quite a bit, and if you prefer to allocate resources to other positions, he could be a tremendous value.
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David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.