Week 7 is here and I started Alfred Morris in three leagues last week. As I take a break from sobbing to dry off my keyboard, let’s have a look at eight players who saw enormous value fluctuations this week. Other than Alfred Morris, of course. I don’t want my tears to short-circuit my laptop.
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Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston (TB): $7,800 vs. CLE (+$400)
If you played Winston in his first start of 2018, you were rewarded handsomely for your decision as the former 2015 first-overall pick threw for 395 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions in a shootout loss to the Atlanta Falcons. It was a tremendous statistical performance and the stuff fantasy dreams are made of.
(Unless you started Alfred Morris in the same league and lost by less than half a point. What, who said that? Not me.)
As such, Winston’s seen a $400 value hike in Week 7. However, this time around, he draws a Browns team that has surrendered the sixth-fewest FanDuel points per contest to opposing quarterbacks. Even in last weeks 38-14 drubbing at the hands of the Chargers, most of the damage was inflicted by Melvin Gordon and the ground game. It’s not that the matchup is prohibitive, but Winston isn’t a premium value in a terrific situation this time around.
Deshaun Watson (HOU): $7,500 @ JAC (-$600)
Watson’s value seems to fluctuate every week, but it’s pretty interesting this time around. Admittedly, the sophomore had an off day against the Bills, throwing only one touchdown and a pair of interceptions and only accumulating 177 passing yards after exceeding 300 in four straight contests. But still, a $600 value drop? That’s awfully steep for one of the more exciting quarterbacks in the game.
It’s even more notable, considering Watson draws a Jags defense that has been picked on by Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes over the last two weeks. Perhaps the expectation is that Jacksonville’s stop unit will return to form in a home game, but right now they don’t look like the shy-away matchup they’ve been in recent memory. Watson’s a risk this week but could be a shrewd contrarian play in tournaments.
Running Backs
Latavius Murray (MIN): $6,500 @ NYJ (+$900)
Welcome back to fantasy relevancy, Latavius Murray. After struggling mightily in relief of Dalvin Cook earlier in the season, Murray exploded against Arizona, taking 14 carries for 155 yards and a touchdown in a 27-17 Viking victory. It was the highest single-game rushing output the veteran has ever produced and it couldn’t have come at a better time.
Cook could be back in Week 7, as he was something of a surprise inactive on Sunday, but he’s really struggled to remain on the field while making his way back from last year’s ACL tear. Even if he’s in the lineup, Murray will likely have a meaningful role. Whether or not you should be comfortable starting a potential timeshare back for $6,500 is a different matter altogether, but Murray could be productive once again if Cook is inactive or limited.
Ronald Jones (TB): $5,100 vs. CLE (-$500)
Coming off the bye week, there was chatter that Jones could see an increased workload after Peyton Barber’s early-season struggles. That proved to be a pipe dream, as Jones only played 18 snaps, received just a carry and was targeted three times in the passing game. Meanwhile, Barber played 41 snaps, took 13 carries for 82 yards, and snared all four of his targets (one of which went for a touchdown).
It appears reports of an imminent committee were greatly exaggerated, and as such, Jones’ value is free-falling once again. It’s only a matter of time until the youngster gains some momentum, but it’s looking unlikely that happens any time soon. The Browns represent a favorable matchup, particularly after their performance against the run in Week 6, but right now Jones isn’t a startable player in any format.
Wide Receivers
Alshon Jeffery (PHI): $7,600 vs. CAR (+$800)
Alshon Jeffery’s first three games back from injury have produced 29 targets, 18 receptions, 218 yards, and three touchdowns. That is tremendous production, and his chemistry with Carson Wentz doesn’t seem to have missed a beat. Coming off a 12-target, two-touchdown Thursday night performance, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the former Chicago Bear’s value is skyrocketing.
This week, Jeffery draws a Panthers defense that is allowing 33.0 FanDuel points per contest to receivers (tied for 10th-most). There really isn’t a lot more to say here. A Pro Bowl-caliber wideout catching passes from a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback in a high-end NFL offense against an attackable pass defense? Sounds like a recipe for success to me. At $7,600, there isn’t much upside baked into the cost, but Jeffery should still be a reasonably confident play as he’s snared 15 touchdowns in 22 contests as a Philadelphia Eagle (including playoffs).
Chris Hogan (NE): $5,500 @ CHI (-$1,000)
In Week 6, Hogan played only 60% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps, his lowest percentage of the season, by far. Of course, he also produced one of his best games of the year, snaring all four of his targets for 78 yards. Yes, he faced Kansas City’s generous defense, but there’s more to the story than that.
Julian Edelman is back from suspension. Josh Gordon is getting up to speed in the Pats’ offense. Rob Gronkowski is still “Gronk.” Hogan has seen his snap share decline, but with all these other weapons in the mix, it’s freed him up to do what he does best: get open down the field. The former Monmouth wideout averaged 19.5 yards per reception on Sunday night and looked the best he has in some time.
It’s clear he’s not necessarily suited for a featured role but is one of the better complementary deep threats in the game. It’s a rare case of a player who should actually benefit from a reduced workload. I’m extremely hesitant to start him against the Bears, but a week after Brock Osweiler shredded that defense, they look considerably less imposing. I still wouldn’t play Hogan this week, but I will be keeping an eye on him going forward.
Tight Ends
Chris Herndon (NYJ): $4,700 vs. MIN (+$700)
Welcome to the Market Watch, Chris Herndon. In Week 6, Herndon announced his NFL arrival by snaring both of his targets for 58 yards and a score as the Jets defeated the Colts 42-34. Sam Darnold continues to look better and better, and he appears to have a nice connection with his young tight end.
Is said connection enough to justify a $700 spike in value? It’s hard to say, but in a matchup against a Vikings team that has been extremely generous to opposing tight ends (fifth-most FanDuel points allowed), he’s in a solid situation to build off his breakout game. Yes, Herndon is an extremely risky play, but at a paper-thin position, you could do worse if you believe Darnold is going to keep getting better and better.
George Kittle (SF): $6,400 vs. LAR (-$500)
This isn’t the first time we’ve discussed Kittle in this column and it likely won’t be the last. The sophomore had a quiet evening on Monday Night Football, securing four of six targets for a meager 30 yards, but that shouldn’t scare anyone off. After all, it was only the second time this season that Kittle’s been held under 79 receiving yards.
Bottom line: this is a player who has emerged as one of the best at his position, yet he still sustained a $500 drop for Week 7. I’m not sure I understand why, as the Rams aren’t a particularly foreboding matchup. In fact, they’re in the middle of the pack against opposing tight ends. Kittle may not have the same touchdown upside as some of the elite options, but he’s a lock for a heavy target share, week in and week out. I’m more than happy to take this discount and expect a bounce-back.
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David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.
