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RB Snap Count Analysis: Week 15 (Fantasy Football)

RB Snap Count Analysis: Week 15 (Fantasy Football)

Running backs are falling faster than baseball stars on the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant softball team. With so many players lost due to knee ailments or hypnosis-induced clucking, this week’s snap-count analysis quickly transformed into an injury report.

The slate started with third-string running backs battling for AFC West supremacy in a nail-biter between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. At least fantasy managers knew to bench Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, and Spencer Ware for the playoff matchup. Those who started Aaron Jones, Lamar Miller, or Frank Gore couldn’t account for an untimely injury torpedoing their championship campaign. Since this is the season’s last column, let’s take a wider snapshot of notable Week 15 snap counts.

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Atlanta Falcons

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Tevin Coleman 34 11 145 0 0 0 1
Ito Smith 29 9 34 3 2 5 0

 
Despite again seeing roughly half the snaps, Tevin Coleman compiled 145 yards in Week 15 after mustering just 75 in the previous three games combined. He took full advantage of a winning game script against the Cardinals, who have ceded the third-most rushing yards and an NFL-high 20 touchdowns on the ground. His role should expand during the final two weeks, as Ito Smith is slated to undergo season-ending knee surgery this week. With Devonta Freeman also on the shelf, Coleman (a pending free agent) should earn considerable work against the Panthers (he amassed 125 yards against them in Week 2) and Buccaneers, who have relinquished the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.

Baltimore Ravens

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Kenneth Dixon 40 11 48 1 1 2 0
Gus Edwards 33 19 104 0 0 0 1

 
Taking a first glance at Baltimore’s box score, Gus Edwards squashed Kenneth Dixon’s effort to usurp a bigger backfield role. The undrafted rookie led the way with 104 yards and a touchdown in a 20-12 win at Tampa Bay. Dixon, however, played seven more snaps. Edwards’ investors shouldn’t panic, as he has cradled 96 carries — 13 inside the red zone — over the last five games. Yet the Ravens won four of those bouts and lost the other in overtime, so Edwards has prevailed despite seeing zero targets.

If the hosting Chargers establish a lead on Saturday night, Dixon would get more work in pass-catching situations. That limits Edwards to a lower-level RB2 (and a touchdown-dependent PPR choice) against the ninth-ranked rushing defense. Dixon remains a flex flier with a higher ceiling, but a far lower floor.

Detroit Lions

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Zach Zenner 26 10 45 4 3 0 1
Theo Riddick 25 8 47 3 2 9 0
LeGarrette Blount 11 7 9 1 0 0 0

 
The first instinct is to dismiss Detroit’s backfield entirely. The Bills lost literally every active halfback, but nobody in a fantasy championship should be playing whoever (if anyone) is healthy this weekend. Perhaps the same can’t be said about Zach Zenner, who has found the end zone in consecutive contests. He went from 12 snaps all season to 16 (26.7% snap share) in Week 14 and 26 (45.6%) on Sunday.

His Week 16 matchup also suddenly looks more manageable. While the Vikings have contained rushing offenses for most of the season, the Seahawks and Dolphins gashed them to 370 yards over the last two weeks. As long as Kerryon Johnson remains sidelined with a knee injury, Zenner has surpassed LeGarrette Blount as Detroit’s deep touchdown-dependent flex choice. Since consuming two touchdowns on Thanksgiving, Blount has turned back into his old self, averaging 2.9 yards per run with his snap count (33, 30, 19, and 11) and touches (20, 17, 15, and eight) steadily trending downward.

Theo Riddick, meanwhile, has drawn more running responsibilities, but has just 11 targets in three games without Johnson and Marvin Jones Jr. after previously averaging 6.4 per contest. His PPR floor is lowering, but the Vikings and Packers present better game-script possibilities than low-scoring slogs against the Cardinals and Bills. Just don’t forget about Johnson, who was never placed on the injured reserve despite missing the last three games with a knee injury.

Green Bay Packers

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Jamaal Williams 59 12 55 5 4 42 0
Aaron Jones 7 4 8 0 0 0 0

 
Jones left Sunday’s game early with a knee injury. On Tuesday, the Packers officially placed him on the injured reserve. Anyone who survived his early exit must thus look elsewhere to finish this campaign. If available, start the search with his replacement. Jamaal Williams turned a full workload into 97 yards and a touchdown against a staunch Bears defense. He mustered just 118 yards while Jones served a two-game suspension to start the season, but those mundane efforts came against the Bears and Vikings.

He should fare better against the Jets, who have permitted 125.9 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. Although the fantasy community has spent months resenting him for blocking Jones’ proper ascent to stardom, Williams can now contribute as a low-end RB2. Don’t expect the newly signed Kapri Bibbs to take away too many snaps.

Houston Texans

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Alfred Blue 41 9 6 2 2 9 9
Lamar Miller 11 3 8 0 0 0 0

 
Miller also exited Week 15’s contest early. Yet while Williams ran with the opportunity, Alfred Blue managed just 15 yards as the featured back against an aforementioned weak Jets defense. This issue also doesn’t appear as serious. While Miller did not re-enter the game, he returned to the sideline and looked ready to play if cleared. Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the knee injury is considered “not major,” and he could come back for Week 15. Averaging 17.75 touches and 89.3 yards per game before Week 15, a healthy Miller still makes a stable RB2 against the Eagles, who have permitted 4.9 yards per carry and 99 receptions to running backs.

Yet keep an eye out for D’Onta Foreman, who could potentially make his season debut. He was activated from the PUP list two weeks ago but has yet to suit up. The 22-year-old, who tore his Achilles last year, is more of a dynasty stash.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Leonard Fournette 27 11 46 4 3 18 0
T.J. Yeldon 18 3 6 3 1 5 0
David Williams 8 5 32 0 0 0 0

 
Leonard Fournette, who fielded 90 touches in three November games, has seen 30 in his past two tilts. He touched the ball once during the second half, most of which he spent on the sideline. So were the Jaguars trying to salvage some value from Carlos Hyde? Nope. He was a healthy scratch. T.J. Yeldon, meanwhile, saw just four touches.

Fournette instead took a back seat to rookie David Williams, a seventh-round pick who poached one carry before Week 15. Per Jaguars.com’s John Oehser, Fournette and head coach Doug Marrone said the team planned to utilize the newcomer. Yet the Florida Times Union‘s John Reid reported that Fournette will land back on the injury report with a nagging foot injury. This development robs him of RB1 status, but he’s still a must-start if active against the Dolphins, who fell to 31th against the run after forfeiting a season-high 19 carries and 136 rushing yards to Dalvin Cook. Few know what the 4-10 Jaguars are doing, and that probably includes the Jaguars, but the former No. 4 pick has drawn too much volume on a normal day to abandon in a strong matchup.

Miami Dolphins

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Kenyan Drake 28 1 6 3 3 28 0
Kalen Ballage 27 12 123 1 1 -2 1
Frank Gore 7 5 14 0 0 0 0

 
A rare backfield iron man, Gore finally succumbed to Father Time during the second quarter. When the veteran left the game, Kenyan Drake rediscovered last year’s late magic a week after saving Miami’s season. Wait, scratch that. He had one carry. The Dolphins instead handed the baton to Kalen Ballage, who wasn’t touched on a 75-yard touchdown against a formerly top-10 Vikings rushing defense. He fielded 12 handoffs, more than Drake has seen since Week 8.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Gore is expected to miss the final two games with a sprained foot. He had previously played 126 straight contests. Drake’s snaps and usage didn’t budge, so keep him in low-end flex territory while adding Ballage. The newcomer makes an intriguing flex choice against an inconsistent Jaguars unit dominated by Derrick Henry, but expect a limited workload in line with Gore’s 12.9 touches per games. He could disappoint without the benefit of another huge play.

Philadelphia Eagles

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Josh Adams 24 15 28 1 0 0 1
Wendell Smallwood 20 10 48 2 2 9 2
Darren Sproles 20 3 30 4 3 16 0

 
Bad news for anyone relying on Adams — the Eagles returned to a three-man timeshare. While his snap rate declined from 44.2 to 31.3 percent, Darren Sproles saw a season-high six touches. The bigger concern (for Adams investors) is Wendell Smallwood, who had logged 11 snaps over the past four games, turning two of his 20 snaps into red-zone touchdowns. Adams also punched in a goal-line score, but he accumulated 28 yards on his lowest snap rate (37.5 %) since Week 10. This situation looks like a messy one worth avoiding against the Texans, who have allowed an NFL-low 3.6 yards per run.

Tennessee Titans

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Derrick Henry 49 33 170 1 1 0 2
Dion Lewis 23 7 35 3 3 9 0

 
While Derrick Henry fell 68 yards and two touchdowns shy of Week 14’s outburst, investors should now feel far more confident in riding him to a fantasy title (since they rostered Henry, winning the consolation bracket may be a more probable goal), He doubled his touches to a season-high 34, 11 of which occurred inside the red zone. His snap rate catapulted from 40 to a season-high 70 percent, decimating Week 3’s previous personal best of 51.6. Dion Lewis mustered 44 yards on 10 touches in his sixth straight game without a touchdown, so bank on the Titans attempting to ride Henry into the postseason. Although Washington’s rushing defense is not as much of a pushover as the Giants, he’s suddenly a trustworthy RB2 while Lewis plummets outside of standard flex territory.

San Francisco 49ers

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Matt Breida 45 17 50 5 5 46 0
Jeff Wilson Jr. 12 7 46 1 0 0 0

 
Although bothered by an ankle injury throughout the season, Matt Breida missed his first game of the season in Week 14. Playing for nothing but draft positioning, the 49ers had little reason to rush him back after unleashing Jeff Wilson Jr. to the tune of 230 yards in two games. Yet Breida returned and promptly reclaimed his top seat in a 26-23 overtime upset over Seattle. While Wilson produced just four fewer yards in 10 fewer rushes, his teammate hogged the snaps and pass-catching work.

Temper expectations against Chicago’s second-ranked rushing defense, but he’s a reasonable flex option since the backfield duo has combined to corral 25 catches for 249 receiving yards in the last five games. Wilson is now relegated to handcuff status. He’s especially worth a bench slot for gamers who have spent virtually every week monitoring Breida’s status.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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