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Whether it’s scheme, age, or just a lack of delivering on hype year after year, there are certain players and situations to avoid entering 2019 fantasy football drafts. We asked our writers about those last week. Now, we’re turning out attention to those players that may have disappointed in the past but who, due to any number of reasons, deserve another chance. Don’t give up on these potential bounce-back players.
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Which Player Deserves Another Chance?
Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC): ADP RB14
The guy hasn’t been able to stay healthy since college and never ran for 100 yards in a game last year. Ideal, he is not. But Jacksonville was also down 4-of-5 starting linemen for a chunk of 2018 and upgraded the QB position this offseason with Nick Foles. Fournette offers 300-carry upside and has averaged 21.9 touches per game over his career, rare bell-cow volume in the age of RBBCs. When healthy, he’s finished a given week as an RB1 in more than 50 percent of his career games. In 2017, he finished as PPR’s ninth-best ball carrier. Assuming good health (far from a sure thing), he’s currently undervalued as a third-round pick and an RB2.
– Brandon Katz (@great_katzby)
Leonard Fournette looked sluggish last year and averaged a measly 3.3 yards per carry. Various lower-body injuries cost him seven games, and he was suspended for unsportsmanlike conduct for one game during the fantasy playoffs. He burned everyone last year (including me) who took him in the first two rounds, but a bounce-back season is on the horizon if he can stay healthy. He reported to camp in good shape and is comfortable catching passes. The Jaguars’ offensive line is fully healthy, as they lost four of their five starting offensive lineman due to injury last season. Nick Foles has replaced Blake Bortles as the team’s starting quarterback, which is like upgrading your car from a Pacer to a Lexus. Despite the lost 2018 season, the Jaguars seem committed to Fournette as their bell cow as they did not bring anyone in to challenge him for the starting job. His ADP in the third round is great value, and as long as he continues to have a solid training camp, expect his draft position to move up. Even though he burned me last year, I am willing to give him one more shot in 2019.
– Brad Camara (@beerad30)
Carson Wentz (QB – PHI): ADP QB10
Wentz was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in 2017 with 3,296 yards passing, 33 passing touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Despite missing the last three games with a torn ACL, he still finished as the fifth-ranked fantasy quarterback. Fantasy owners had high hopes for Wentz coming back from injury, but he missed five games battling injuries and regressed to 3,074 yards passing, 21 passing touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He was the 22nd ranked fantasy quarterback in fantasy and never lived up to the billing of a QB1. If the Eagles were that worried about his second season being a fluke, they would not have let backup Nick Foles leave in free agency. They would also not have given Wentz a $128 million extension, and they would not have made Nate Sudfeld the backup quarterback. All signs point to the Eagles having a ton of confidence in Wentz rebounding, and fantasy owners should chalk up a bad 2018 season to him working his way back from an ACL tear. He has a great chance to outperform his ADP of 87, which would be a bargain if he returns to his 2017 form.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL): ADP RB16
It’s hard for fantasy owners to draft a guy the next season that wronged him the year before, but I want Devonta Freeman owners last year to hear me out. Going into the 2018 season, Freeman was being taken in drafts as RB13 and an ADP of 19th overall in half-PPR formats. Unfortunately for him and the rest of the Atlanta Falcons, the team was hit hard by the injury bug last year. Freeman injured his right knee in the first game which made him miss his next four games, then injured his foot and groin in Week 5 that cost him the rest of the season. This year, Freeman is being drafted as RB16 and going 30th overall after his injury-riddled season. But there is a lot of optimism for Freeman. For starters, the guy that was taking carries from him the last few seasons (Tevin Coleman) is no longer on the team. Freeman is the clear cut RB1 for the Falcons and should see a good size workload each week. Let’s also not forget Freeman’s production the last few years. In 2017 he finished the year as RB13 playing in 14 games; 2016 – RB6; 2015 – RB1 in 15 games. His track record indicates that if he stays healthy, he can product RB1 type numbers. Freeman is one of those players this year that I think could be a league winner at his current ADP.
– Kevin O’Connor (@22koconnor)
David Johnson (RB – ARI): ADP RB6
Remember when David Johnson outscored every other running back by 82 points in 2016? That memory is probably fading quickly for anyone who owned him over the last two seasons. It’s understandable. His owners spent a high first-round pick on him and it more than likely cost them the playoffs. Nevertheless, it’s important for drafters to remember just how dominant DJ can be. Let’s start with his floor, shall we? In 2016, he did not have a single game where he failed to score double-digit points in standard leagues. Not one. That’s remarkable consistency. As for his ceiling? Well, he scored more points that season than any running back since Arian Foster in 2010. You do the math. Perhaps his biggest display of dominance was his ability to finish as the RB9 in 2018 despite having a poor man’s Jeff Fisher calling plays and a quarterback who was less of a threat than Trent Richardson trying to find a hole. Kyler Murray’s athletic abilities will make a world of a difference, and there’s a not-so-small chance that Kliff Kingsbury can get 2016-type production from DJ. I’m more than willing to bet a top-five pick on it.
– Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski)
I’ve heard so many people say, “David Johnson sucked last year.” OK, well if a guy who finished as a Top-20 fantasy option sucked with that putrid offense around him, sign me up. They finally got rid of that god awful coach and replaced him with a guy who will force-feed DJ the ball, whether through the air or the ground. That doesn’t even take into consideration the addition of Kyler Murray, as that too should open things up for Johnson. This is easily one of the best backs in the world and he’s definitely worth a shot in the second half of the first round.
– Joel Bartilotta (@Bartilottajoel)
Lamar Miller/D’Onta Foreman (RB – HOU): ADP RB31 & RB46
I listed both Miller and Foreman because of the unpredictability of the latter’s return to form from an Achilles tear. Either way, someone in this backfield will exceed expectations this year after somewhat disappointing seasons. While he was largely ignored in the fantasy world, the departure of Alfred Blue frees up 170 touches from last year (150 rushing and 20 receiving). The Texans did very little to add any RB depth, so they trust what they have. After a decent RB22 finish, Miller is now going on 28 years old so that may give way to the more youthful Foreman provided he’s healthy. Fresh off of drafting two offensive linemen in the first two rounds in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Texans have deep investment in improving the trenches. My money is on a bounce-back year for Miller with some low-end usage from Foreman.
– David Zach (@DavidZach16)
Breshad Perriman (WR – TB): ADP WR107
I’ve never been a Perriman truther but considering he is a starting wide receiver on a Bruce Arian’s Tampa Buccaneers offense and currently has an ADP of WR111, I think he is well-deserving of another chance. He’s a former first-round pick, has a Speed Score in the 99th-percentile and a Burst Score in the 74th-percentile. He had a College Dominator in the 73rd-percentile to go with a 20.9 yards per reception (95th-percentile) at UCF. He started his career in Baltimore injured and never got off the ground. As a Buccaneer, he showed promise in a small sample size last year. He might be competing against Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard for targets but he’s on a prolific offense that also has one of the worst defenses. Tampa Bay is going to throw the ball a lot in 2019. Perriman is poised to revitalize his “busted” career. He not even 26 yet and is also a buy low in dynasty. And best of all you can get him as a late-round flier. in all draft formats. And oh boy, Perriman is ready to fly!
– Marc Mathyk (@masterjune70)
Jordan Howard (RB – PHI): ADP RB35
Howard disappointed fantasy owners who spent an early-round pick on him last year. The Bears were forced to get creative to keep defenses off-balance and compensate for Mitch Trubisky‘s weaknesses and growing pains. That won’t be the case in Philadelphia. As good as the offensive line in Chicago was, the Eagles boast a stronger unit. No, Howard won’t be a bell-cow back generating 20-plus touches per game, but he should be able to replicate what Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount did in 2017. Keep in mind that Ajayi averaged 5.8 YPC after he went to the Eagles via midseason trade. Howard’s touches will be limited, but as the primary early-down ball carrier and red zone back on the team, there is a ton of touchdown upside. Howard’s 18 TDs over the last two years are tied with Melvin Gordon for the third most in football over that span. Coach Doug Pederson prefers an RBBC approach at running back, but Howard has been dominating first-team reps this offseason and he figures to lead the committee followed by an aging Darren Sproles and exciting but still green second-rounder Miles Sanders. While most will jump onto the Sanders’ hype train, it looks like Howard will get the first opportunity at leading the team in rushes. Don’t forget that Pederson traded for Howard, so there is incentive for him to play. Furthermore, Howard’s ADP (85.8) means he’s being drafted as a low-end RB3 who could return RB2 value playing in an elite offense.
– Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs)
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