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Fantasy Football Rankings: Expert Consensus vs. CBS ADP

by Josh Shepardson | @BChad50 | Featured Writer
Aug 12, 2019

CBS users are selecting Latavius Murray a full 8 picks after his FantasyPros’ expert consensus rank, making him a good value for drafters at the site.

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Each fantasy provider has their own in-house player rankings, and those rankings can have a big impact on the ADP of players at that site. A player sitting higher in the default queue can prompt an unprepared drafter to select them. Even beyond that, gamers who miss drafts or time out on their selections will be forced to pick the highest-ranked player in the queue, and that will impact ADP at fantasy providers, too. Comparing those differences with FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) here can give you another nugget of useful information to help you maximize your drafting. This is the first comparison of ADP against ECR and it focuses on the discrepancies between the ADP at CBS and our ECR for standard-scoring leagues. You can play around with our Dissenting Opinions tool here. Below, I’ve set plus and minus thresholds at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end and I’ve provided tables showing players who hit those thresholds.

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Quarterback (+/- 4)

ECR likes him more

ECR Player Team ADP Difference
15 Dak Prescott DAL 21 6
18 Mitch Trubisky CHI 22 4

CBS Sports ADP likes him more

ADP Player Team ECR Difference
7 Drew Brees NO 11 4
14 Tom Brady NE 21 7
17 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 22 5
20 Nick Foles JAC 27 7

Both quarterbacks who the ECR likes more than the ADP are youngsters and each cracked the top-10 in rushing yards at the position last year with Trubisky ranking fifth (421 rushing yards) and Prescott ranking ninth (305 rushing yards), per Pro-Football-Reference. Trubisky will be in his second year in Matt Nagy’s offense, and Prescott will have a full season with Amari Cooper after the team dealt for him last year and the duo quickly developed chemistry on the fly.

A pair of future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Brees and Brady, headline the quarterbacks CBS ADP likes more than ECR. Mobility is not the strong suit of this group, and Brady’s 35 rushing yards in 2018 lead the group. In fairness to Garoppolo, his season was cut short in his third game due to suffering a torn ACL, and he finished with just two fewer rushing yards than Brady. Having said that, it seems improbable San Francisco will call on their hopeful franchise quarterback to run much in his return from knee surgery. Gamers at CBS who are drafting these quarterbacks higher than the ECR are relying almost entirely on their arms to deliver fantasy goodies, and the experts contributing to our ECR are more bearish on the group with only Brees ranking inside the top-20 quarterbacks at QB11.

Running Back (+/- 6)

ECR likes him more

ECR Player Team ADP Difference
30 Latavius Murray NO 38 8
42 Adrian Peterson WAS 54 12
47 Nyheim Hines IND 57 10
55 C.J. Anderson DET 61 6

CBS Sports ADP likes him more

ADP Player Team ECR Difference
41 Kareem Hunt CLE 52 11
44 Chris Thompson WAS 59 15
51 D’Onta Foreman IND 75 24
58 Alexander Mattison MIN 64 6
59 Darwin Thompson KC 74 15
62 Tony Pollard DAL 76 14

Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson are the only teammates in this section, with the ECR liking Peterson more in standard formats and the CBS ADP leaning toward Thompson. The situation in Washington’s backfield is one I’m avoiding entirely in season-long leagues.

I side with the ECR in regards to Latavius Murray. He’s not the most exciting back to be had around his ADP, but he’s tied to an offense that projects to hang points aplenty and stake their backfield to leads to protect. Kareem Hunt stands out as being grossly overdrafted in CBS formats even in the wake of Duke Johnson being dealt to the Texans. Speaking of the Texans and being overdrafted, former Texan D’Onta Foreman should see his CBS ADP slide going forward after being cut by the Texans and thrown into an already-full backfield in Indianapolis.

Wide Receiver (+/- 8)

ECR likes him more

ECR Player Team ADP Difference
44 Anthony Miller CHI 54 10
45 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 53 8
46 Devin Funchess IND 60 14
50 John Brown BUF 65 15
51 Kenny Stills MIA 61 10
59 Albert Wilson MIA 69 10

CBS Sports ADP likes him more

ADP Player Team ECR Difference
44 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 52 8
45 Mohamed Sanu ATL 61 16
48 N’Keal Harry NE 56 8
49 D.K. Metcalf SEA 58 9
55 Marquise Brown BAL 73 18
56 Parris Campbell IND 66 10
57 Josh Gordon NE 110 53
59 Deebo Samuel SF 69 10
62 Marqise Lee JAC 72 10
67 Antonio Callaway CLE 78 11

I’m enamored with a number of the receivers that the ECR likes more. Miller and MVS both have second-year leap potential. Buffalo’s reshaped wide receiver room has the potential to see Brown lead the way, making him one of my favorite low-cost dart throws whose speed pairs nicely with Josh Allen‘s strong arm. I already wrote about my infatuation with Stills this year, and you can read that piece here.

There’s a common theme to the table featuring receivers CBS ADP likes more, as rookie receivers make up exactly half of the table. Among the rookies, I’ll pass on Harry at his CBS ADP and probably at his ECR rank as well, and I’ll pass on Metcalf at both his CBS ADP and ECR in Seattle’s run-heavy offense.

Split the difference on “Hollywood” Brown’s price, and I’m on board with taking a flier on him in standard. Campbell and Samuel are my favorites of the rookies, and I’m willing to take the plunge on them both at their CBS ADP. Gordon recently applied for his reinstatement, and that likely explains the huge gap in his CBS ADP and ECR. While it’s unclear if and when he’ll be reinstated, I’d be willing to roll the dice a little later than his CBS ADP and pop him after WR60.

Tight End (+/- 4)

ECR likes him more

ECR Player Team ADP Difference
14 Trey Burton CHI 19 5
16 Jack Doyle IND 22 6

CBS Sports ADP likes him more

ADP Player Team ECR Difference
13 T.J. Hockenson DET 22 9
18 Noah Fant DEN 23 5

Burton has some post-hype appeal after generating a ton of buzz last offseason and quietly finishing sixth in fantasy points at tight end in standard. I’m leaning in the ECR direction and believe he’s a bit underrated at CBS. Doyle might’ve been Wally Pipped by Eric Ebron last season. Sure, Doyle will have a role, but Ebron exploded for a 66-750-13 line in his first year with the Colts after disappointing with the Lions. I won’t be selecting Doyle as a top-20 tight end.

The CBS drafting community is overrating at least one rookie. Last year, Evan Engram finished as the 13th ranked tight end in fantasy scoring in standard leagues with 577 receiving yards and three touchdowns. According to the Play Index tool at Pro-Football-Reference, only two tight ends have totaled at least 575 receiving yards and three touchdowns in their rookie seasons over the last 20 years, as you can see here. The deck’s stacked against Hockenson living up to his CBS ADP.

Fant, on the other hand, might have a shot to finish as a top-20 tight end. Rookies Chris Herndon and Mark Andrews finished in the top-20 tight ends last year in standard as well. Having said that, those two are two of only nine tight ends to finish with at least 500 receiving yards and three touchdowns in their rookie seasons over the last 20 years, as you can see here. Fant’s price as a fringe top-20 tight end is reasonable.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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