Last year in Week 11, Tre’Quan Smith exploded for 26 fantasy points while Chris Conley finished with 23. Josh Adams outscored Christian McCaffrey and the RB1, Todd Gurley while over at tight end, both Robert Tonyan and Antonio Gates finished among the top five at the position.
The point is that while everything you are about to read may seem crazy, this is a league where crazy things happen every week. I am merely trying to forecast which scenarios are possible in advance like last week when we hyped up Daniel Jones over Russell Wilson and had O.J. Howard and Darius Slayton in the top 5 and 20 respectively for their positions.
I’ll be posting this article every Saturday, and while these are all players I feel strongly about for the week, these are not my projections by any means. Rather, a bold prediction is something that most people would say has less than 10% chance of happening, but I’ll give it two or even three times better odds. So perhaps use one of these guys in a DFS GPP or if you need help breaking a tie on a start/sit decision.
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#1 Carson Wentz will be a top five quarterback
“But he’s been awful lately!” Folks, what the heck did you expect with consecutive matchups against the Cowboys, Bills, Bears and Patriots? Those are four of the top six secondaries in football. Of course he didn’t play well! Besides that, he has been the same ole’ Wentz this year, slinging out 20+ fantasy points per contest. With a home matchup against a surprisingly weak Seahawks secondary, he could be in for a major bounceback.
Final Prediction: 26 for 38, 311 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT, 4 carries, 20 yards
#2 Jordan Matthews will finish as a top 30 wideout
In case you are living under a rock, Alshon Jeffery missed last week and is still questionable with that ankle injury. Nelson Agholor was supposed to continue as the beneficiary but he has been missing practice this week too with a knee injury. There is a chance JJ Arcega-Whiteside finally gets snaps over Mack Hollins, but we know Matthews will be on the field nearly all game. In fact, he had 64 snaps last week, and if Wentz is going to have a big week, you can bet Matthews will have some share of it.
Final Prediction: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 76 yards, 1 TD
#3 Latavius Murray will end up as a top 24 back
I can’t fathom how people are comfortable starting Jamaal Williams, Royce Freeman and Derrius Guice, who all play in lesser offenses, have much more difficult matchups than Murray this week and have been getting even less touches than Murray, yet they don’t want to play the top handcuff in all of football. Murray has been dynamic when he gets touches this year and while it may not have happened in a crummy game script versus the Falcons or an awful matchup versus the Bucs, it doesn’t mean he won’t bounce back against a horrendous Panthers’ run defense in a near-ideal game script.
Final Prediction: 13 carries, 80 yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 19 yards
#4 Taylor Gabriel will manage a top 24 wideout week
This feels disgusting to type, but I’ll be starting Gabriel in several of my own leagues this week. Not only does he have big-play potential but he has been and remains a favorite of Mitch Trubisky, seeing 93 targets last season and 20 over the past two weeks. Most importantly, the Giants are among the easiest matchups in fantasy football for wide receivers and Gabriel just so happens to be lined up against their weakest link this weekend.
Final Prediction: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 102 yards
#5 Dak Prescott won’t finish among the top 20 QBs
This is the complete opposite case of Wentz, who has had a treacherous schedule so everyone gave up on him. Dak, meanwhile has had by far the easiest schedule in the NFL so far, so duh, of course, he piled up fantasy points. Only Lamar Jackson, though, has managed to succeed against this incredible Patriots’ secondary, and while Dak is plenty talented, he doesn’t have the cheat code of running the ball 15 times per game. He makes for an easy sit this week in my mind, yet so many are still starting him in this horrible matchup.
Final Prediction: 22 for 35, 204 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 4 carries, 18 yards
The Other Half
#6 James White will end up in the top 12 RBs (Consistent target share + multiple WR injuries)
Final Prediction: 11 targets, 8 receptions, 62 yards, 1 TD, 5 carries, 35 yards, 1 TD
#7 Noah Fant will find his way into a top 5 tight end week (Leads Broncos in targets since Sanders was traded)
Final Prediction: 9 targets, 5 receptions, 88 yards, 1 TD
#8 Raheem Mostert will jump into the top 20 backs (Led SF in snaps last week + great matchup this week)
Final Prediction: 12 carries, 89 yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 25 yards
#9 Cameron Brate will be a top 5 tight end (14 targets last week + excellent matchup this week)
Final Prediction: 10 targets, 7 receptions, 71 yards, 1 TD
#10 Benjamin Watson will be a top 10 tight end (Sanu + Dorsett banged up, Watson playing nearly all game these days)
Final Prediction: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD
Thanks for reading and happy football season!
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