The 2019 season has been a fun one to watch, but last week we had a few too many blowouts. While those might’ve helped (or hurt) your DFS teams, depending on who you played, one of the best ways to approach DFS is to consider who’s likely to be highly owned. Betting on those players in cash leagues is a smart way to ensure your success; avoiding popular picks in tournament leagues can help separate your lineup from the rest. Each week, I’ll be offering some fantasy analysis on the ownership numbers from our projected ownership tool, so let’s get started!
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Quarterback
Matt Ryan takes on the Buccaneers, and he’s a strong bet against their second-worst defense against quarterbacks. They are surrendering a whopping 23.7 FanDuel points per game to the position, ensuring that Ryan will have a strong floor this week. Even though he’ll be without Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman, last week proved that Atlanta could win without them. It’s no surprise that a quarter of FanDuel players are expected to slot Ryan into their lineups, but he’s not quite chalk, and there are some strong plays elsewhere. After Ryan, we’ve got two popular picks above 15% projected ownership. Russell Wilson is the first of these guys. He’s having an MVP-caliber season, and he’s got the Eagles this week. However, Philadelphia has improved defensively in recent weeks. Since Week 8, the Eagles have only given up 44 points, or 14.667 points per game. They’ve done it against some decent teams, too, as they played the Bills, Bears, and Patriots over that span. Although I’m confident in Russ as a quarterback, I don’t know if the matchup justifies his $8,200 salary. The Eagles’ passing defense is even in the top half against opposing quarterbacks. Jameis Winston comes in next against a recovering Atlanta team. While I expect that he’ll rebound from his bad showing against New Orleans last week, I’m also unsure if I’d want to roll the dice on him when Ryan is just $300 more. The argument for Winston is that his receivers are elite and can make plays despite him, but his interceptions will cost you fantasy points, and the Falcons got four of them last week. We wind out the list with two guys under 10%. First, we’ve got Drew Brees against the Panthers. Unlike the Eagles, the Panthers have been cold lately. The Falcons throttled them last week, and I’d look for the Saints to do the same here. While Carolina has been decent against opposing quarterbacks this season, as they have only given up 15.8 FanDuel points per game to the position, they’ll need Kyle Allen and the offense to maintain possession, and I’m not sure if that’ll happen. Finally, Carson Wentz takes on the Seahawks’ weak passing defense. The “Legion of Boom” is long dead, and Seattle is currently giving up a 14th-highest 18.8 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. While Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor might be beaten up, Wentz still has his tight ends. I think he’s a smart value option.
The 2019 season has been a fun one to watch, but last week we had a few too many blowouts. While those might’ve helped (or hurt) your DFS teams, depending on who you played, one of the best ways to approach DFS is to consider who’s likely to be highly owned. Betting on those players in cash leagues is a smart way to ensure your success; avoiding popular picks in tournament leagues can help separate your lineup from the rest. Each week, I’ll be offering some fantasy analysis on the ownership numbers from our projected ownership tool, so let’s get started!
Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel
Quarterback
Matt Ryan takes on the Buccaneers, and he’s a strong bet against their second-worst defense against quarterbacks. They are surrendering a whopping 23.7 FanDuel points per game to the position, ensuring that Ryan will have a strong floor this week. Even though he’ll be without Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman, last week proved that Atlanta could win without them. It’s no surprise that a quarter of FanDuel players are expected to slot Ryan into their lineups, but he’s not quite chalk, and there are some strong plays elsewhere. After Ryan, we’ve got two popular picks above 15% projected ownership. Russell Wilson is the first of these guys. He’s having an MVP-caliber season, and he’s got the Eagles this week. However, Philadelphia has improved defensively in recent weeks. Since Week 8, the Eagles have only given up 44 points, or 14.667 points per game. They’ve done it against some decent teams, too, as they played the Bills, Bears, and Patriots over that span. Although I’m confident in Russ as a quarterback, I don’t know if the matchup justifies his $8,200 salary. The Eagles’ passing defense is even in the top half against opposing quarterbacks. Jameis Winston comes in next against a recovering Atlanta team. While I expect that he’ll rebound from his bad showing against New Orleans last week, I’m also unsure if I’d want to roll the dice on him when Ryan is just $300 more. The argument for Winston is that his receivers are elite and can make plays despite him, but his interceptions will cost you fantasy points, and the Falcons got four of them last week. We wind out the list with two guys under 10%. First, we’ve got Drew Brees against the Panthers. Unlike the Eagles, the Panthers have been cold lately. The Falcons throttled them last week, and I’d look for the Saints to do the same here. While Carolina has been decent against opposing quarterbacks this season, as they have only given up 15.8 FanDuel points per game to the position, they’ll need Kyle Allen and the offense to maintain possession, and I’m not sure if that’ll happen. Finally, Carson Wentz takes on the Seahawks’ weak passing defense. The “Legion of Boom” is long dead, and Seattle is currently giving up a 14th-highest 18.8 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. While Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor might be beaten up, Wentz still has his tight ends. I think he’s a smart value option.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara hasn’t had a great season, but his frequent usage in the passing game gives him some decent value in FanDuel’s Half PPR format. Kamara has 20 targets and 18 receptions the last two weeks alone, so it’s not surprising that FanDuel users are projected to be heavily invested in the Saints’ lead back. He’s even got an easy matchup, as the Panthers give up a third-worst 26.1 FanDuel points per game to the position. His 44.6% projected ownership is pretty close to chalk, and I’d recommend buying him in cash leagues. I’m also not surprised to see Nick Chubb on here against the Miami Dolphins, as Brian Flores’ team has struggled this year — or maybe they’re just tanking. Regardless, Miami gives up the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to running backs. Although they’ve only played 10 games, they’ve given up more rushing yards than all but one of the teams that have played 11. It’s worth noting that they’re far worse against running backs on the ground than they are through the air. Though they’ve given up the second-most rushing yards to running backs, they’ve given up the tenth-fewest yards to them through the air. I suspect that this is because teams are keeping the ball on the ground to run out the clock. Why am I saying this? Easy, so that you don’t let Kareem Hunt ($5,600, 5.4%) scare you off of buying Chubb. Next up should be Christian McCaffrey, and I think that last week proved that he’s worth his salary even with a negative game script. The man is the definition of a known commodity. We’ve got one of the Pittsburgh running backs up next. Jaylen Samuels is a pass-catching specialist, which gives him a solid floor. Consider buying Benny Snell ($4,500, 0.0% projected ownership) with James Conner out of the lineup. Both backs should have big days as the Steelers run out the clock against Cincinnati. Lastly, we’ve got Leonard Fournette. The Titans are a mid-pack defense against running backs, and Fournette had a decent day against them his last time out. He earned 66 yards on 15 carries, and he added 26 yards on six receptions. He’s a solid floor play with a surprisingly affordable price this week.
Wide Receiver
I led off last week’s wide receiver section with stats about Michael Thomas’ crazy 2019. I’m glad I get to do that again. Through ten games, Thomas has earned 190.2 Half PPR points — good for 19 per game. He’d currently be last year’s WR16 through just ten games. If he keeps up his current pace, he’ll finish the season with 304 Half PPR points, which is 19.5 more points than last year’s WR1. So long story short, what Christian McCaffrey offers you at running back, Thomas offers you at wide receiver. Unsurprisingly, he’s got the highest rate of ownership of anyone on this list, and while the Panthers’ run-funnel defense may limit his upside, the Saints are just as likely to beat the Panthers through the air, as Carolina’s secondary got exposed last week by the Falcons. Speaking of the Falcons, Julio Jones is projected as the second-most owned wide receiver this week. If there were ever a team to start your wideouts against, it’s Tampa Bay. They give up the most points per game to the position at 39.2, which is 4.9 more than the second-worst team. He’s as much of sure thing to finish as a WR1 as we’ve got. Odell Beckham Jr. is projected as another popular pick. Beckham and the Browns have struggled this season, but the Dolphins give them an opportunity to get right. Beckham’s low-end $7,000 is worth it, as the receiver has dominated the Browns’ target share of late. He’s earned double-digit targets in both of his last two games. D.J. Moore slots in fourth against the Saints, and he’s been hot despite Kyle Allen’s poor play. Moore has had double-digit targets in three of his last four games, and while he hasn’t scored in that span, his volume means that he has somewhat of a steady floor in Half PPR formats. Mike Evans finishes up our list against Atlanta, and while the Falcons have looked good lately, they’re still giving up the sixth-most FanDuel points to wide receivers. The Falcons/Buccaneers match could easily turn into a pass-heavy shootout, and Evans would be a big beneficiary.
Tight End
If you read this column last week, you would have seen me call Zach Ertz’s solid production. He’s chalk this week as the Eagles’ receivers continue to get healthy, so you should start him in cash leagues. The Eagles’ other tight end, Dallas Goedert, is also projected to be a popular pick. Unfortunately, his salary isn’t quite cheap enough to justify taking a risk on him, as he’s somewhat touchdown-dependent. They’ve both got a good matchup, as Seattle has struggled against tight ends this season. They are giving up 11.3 FanDuel points per game to the position, seventh-most in the league. Next up is Darren Waller, whose Oakland Raiders take on the Jets. The Jets are somehow a top-four defense against opposing tight ends, as they give up only 7.2 FanDuel points per game to the position. That said, three of the four AFC East teams are in the top eight, so it might just be because there’s an absence of talent at the position. Still, pick Ertz over Waller. Lastly, some FanDuel owners are high on two NFC South tight ends, Greg Olsen and Jared Cook. Olsen is a better value than Cook, so if you’re looking to save cap space, he could be a viable option. He’s had an up-and-down season with Kyle Allen under center, and he may rely on a touchdown to save his fantasy day. Cook, meanwhile, is just $100 cheaper than Ertz. Picking between the two, I’d take Ertz every time.
Defense
FanDuel players are betting against Jeff Driskel this week. The backup has looked surprisingly good since Matthew Stafford went down, and I don’t think the ‘Skins are the team to end his hot streak. That said, they are just $3,000, so they’re not a bad bargain-bin play — just don’t get your expectations up. The rest of this week’s popular options all made Jacob Herlin’s shortlist this week. We’ve got both sides of the Bills/Broncos tilt, and Denver’s banged-up offensive line makes Buffalo a good bet. Four of Brandon Allen’s starting blockers are listed as questionable this week, so look for the Bills to capitalize with some sacks. On the other side of the ball, I’m worried about a potentially negative game script with so many linemen hurt. If you’re willing to roll the dice, however, studs like Von Miller and Derek Wolfe could come through with some key sacks. Lastly, we’ve got Pittsburgh and New Orleans. While the Steelers defense got hyped up before their Week 11 defeat against Cleveland, I’m expecting a rebound game against an atrocious Bengals team. However, their $5,000 salary might be too much to stomach for some, and I’d be more interested in Buffalo at just $4,700. The same logic applies to the Saints — sure, they beat up Tampa Bay last week, and they did so without star cornerback Marshon Lattimore. While you should look for them to perform similarly against a struggling Kyle Allen, I think that Buffalo is the better play, and they’ll cost you less cap space.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
