11 Early Overvalued Players (2020 Fantasy Football)
Last week we asked our writers to provide players that they felt were most undervalued early in the offseason. This week, we’re looking at players our writers feel are overvalued. Here are our early overvalued fantasy football players for 2020.
Overall and position rankings based on half-PPR expert consensus.
Q: Which player do you think is most overvalued by the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR)?
Mike Evans (WR – TB): Overall 16 – WR7
It’s extremely unlikely that a team produces two top-10 wide receivers, let alone two top-six receivers, which is where both Evans and Chris Godwin are being drafted right now (Godwin WR6, Evans WR7). Sure, they both finished top-six in 2019, but the Bucs also had one of the worst defenses and threw the ball 630 times. They may also have a rookie quarterback in 2020. While Evans is still an asset, there must be a teeter-totter effect with him and Godwin in the ADP, and to this point, that hasn’t happened. The way Bruce Arians is using Godwin, it’s eerily similar to the way he used Larry Fitzgerald, which tells me the teeter-totter is going to lean his way.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)
Aaron Jones (RB – GB): Overall 9 – RB7
Jones is currently the ninth player off the board in ECR. That’s way too high for me, and I won’t be going anywhere near him in 2020. The Packers are locked into an RB-committee approach, which limits Jones’ overall upside. Yes, Jones finished as the RB2 in 2019, but he did it on the back of 16 touchdowns on the ground! The chances of him hitting that number again are small, and you’re drafting him at his ceiling. I avoid those types of players at all costs, especially in the first round.
– Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)
Jameis Winston (QB – TB): Overall 75 – QB7
Last year, Jameis Winston became the inaugural member of the 30/30 club, throwing for 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. On top of that, he added over 5,000 passing yards, becoming the eighth player to do so in a single season. All of this allowed Winston to finish as the third-ranked quarterback on the season in terms of points per game. That said, I tend to think this past year was more of the exception than the rule based on how Winston has performed throughout the rest of his career. Before throwing for 5,000 yards last year he had never thrown for more than 4,100 yards in a season. Similarly, he had at least 25 passing touchdowns in only one of his first four seasons, the last one coming in his second year. Winston also doesn’t add much value running the ball as he’s never run for more than 300 yards in a single season. I understand that getting LASIK may help Winston see defenders more clearly, but I don’t think it will improve his decision-making abilities. His QB14 ADP is much more tolerable with all the risk you’re inheriting with Winston, but a QB7 ranking is far too rich for my blood.
– Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen)
Ryan Tannehill (QB – FA): Overall 115 – QB15
The Expert Consensus Ranks are pretty strong in my opinion — it’s tough to find any major disagreements at this point (for overrated players). However, as a front-end QB2 (QB15 in the rankings), Ryan Tannehill feels pretty overvalued for a player with relatively limited mobility (3.6 carries for 15.4 yards per game last season). In 2019, Tannehill attempted just 24 pass attempts per game, with 3.2 red zone attempts and 3.3 deep ball attempts per game. Generally speaking, for quarterbacks, we care more about efficiency than about volume for passing statistics (i.e., we want deep balls and touchdowns, but don’t need 40+ pass attempts). Tannehill’s 32.5% Deep Ball Completion Percentage (tracked by PlayerProfiler.com) was just 25th-best in the league, so he fully made his living in fantasy points by throwing touchdowns at an extreme 7.7% clip. Tannehill may remain efficient, but likely not to that level. Tannehill’s No. 1 rank in Support Cast Efficiency (also courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com) is also likely not to continue. While he should be a totally viable QB2, a high-end QB2 suggests he would be startable in most good matchups, and I’m not willing to make that claim now. I’d likely be taking the next three quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger, Baker Mayfield, and Daniel Jones) all ahead of Tannehill, thanks in part to more ambiguous upside.
– Mark Leipold (@LeipoldNFL)
Le’Veon Bell (RB – NYJ): Overall 40 – RB17
Despite being one of the 2019 season’s biggest fantasy football busts, Le’Veon Bell is still being ranked as RB17 and the 40th player in the ECR. I do not understand Bell’s ranking one iota – he is currently listed ahead of ascending players like Devin Singletary, Calvin Ridley, D.J. Chark, and D.K. Metcalf. Bell is a 28-year-old running back on one of the NFL’s worst offenses and openly feuding with his coaching staff and front office. Why would you want to draft this guy? Volume is the only acceptable answer, considering Bell had 311 touches last season. My response – Bell was horrendously inefficient, averaging a whopping 4.0 yards per touch last season, good for 54th among 59 qualifying skill position players with at least 100 touches. Will the Jets commit to giving Bell the football 300 times next season? I don’t see it. And I want no part of Le’Veon Bell for the 2020 season at his current ranking.
– Jarad Evans (@Jarad_Evans)
Melvin Gordon (RB – FA): Overall 36 – RB16
Melvin Gordon is currently the consensus RB16 and 36th overall player in ECR. Yet, his historical performance and future uncertainty don’t give credence to the notion that he should be ranked higher than many other veterans below him. Gordon disappointed last season despite receiving more carries than his standout teammate Austin Ekeler. Gordon averaged his lowest yards per carry and yards per reception since his rookie season. He only managed four RB1 performances last season, all coming off of the back of at least one touchdown. I am not sure we will see much improvement in his efficiency, as he has only managed to eclipse four yards per carry once in his five-year career. He also never eclipsed eight yards per reception. His fantasy production is purely driven by extensive volume and touchdown upside. Now that he is leaving Los Angeles, there is uncertainty whether or not he will command a starting role or land in an ideal situation. Gordon could very easily end up in a situation similar to what Jordan Howard had with the Philadelphia Eagles, where he shares time with a rookie running back until he eventually cedes the starting role to the younger, cheaper player. There are multiple running backs behind Gordon, such as Mark Ingram (RB18), Kenyan Drake (RB19), and Devin Singletary (RB20), that I’d rather have next season given their efficiency metrics and defined roles in their offense. Gordon is too risky right now, and I believe he is overvalued by the Expert Consensus.
– Dan Ambrosino (@AmbrosinoNFL)
Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN): Overall 5 – RB4
Cook’s talent and ability to put up big fantasy numbers are unquestioned, as the Vikings’ star finished last season ranked third among running backs in half-PPR scoring behind only Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones. My concern with Cook is his injury history, which has prevented him from playing a full 16-game season in his three-year NFL career. As a rookie in 2017, he suffered a torn ACL, which limited him to just four games, and he missed a large chunk of the 2018 campaign with a hamstring injury. While Cook was one of the league’s top fantasy running backs during the first half of 2019, averaging 22.3 Half PPR points per game, his production dipped considerably during the second half of the season, in which he averaged just 14.6 Half PPR points per contest while nursing a shoulder injury. Cook also saw his rushing average decrease from 5.3 yards per carry to 3.3 yards per carry during that span. For a guy whose main question mark was health entering 2019, I’m not sure Cook quelled enough of those worries to warrant a top-five selection in 2020 fantasy drafts.
– Daniel Comer (@DanComer404)
Todd Gurley (RB – LAR): Overall 25 – RB13
The 2019 season was a rough one for Gurley. His 223 rushing attempts were the lowest of his career and his 49 targets were the fewest since his rookie season. The result was only 1,064 yards from scrimmage and 4.2 yards per touch. He had a very uninspiring 3.8 yards per carry and 6.7 yards per reception. His longest rush on the season went for only 25 yards and his longest reception went for only 23 yards. The only thing that gave him good fantasy value is that he tallied 14 total touchdowns, which was the fifth-most in the league. This is a player that has an arthritic condition in his knee, and he was used less in 2019 than in previous years. Gurley made it look like even the limited workload he was asked to handle was too much for him. Pro Football Focus ranked the Rams as the 31st offensive line, while only the Miami Dolphins received a lower grade. The only reason Gurley is not a potential cap casualty is the Rams would absorb over $25 million in dead cap money if they release him this year. I think to rank him as an RB2 given the decline in his play and the state of the Rams’ offensive line makes him one of the more overvalued players in fantasy football this year. I see him more as a high-end flex option than a high-end RB2. I worry about his ability to handle a huge workload with his knee, and if the touchdowns decline significantly, he is going to become unplayable in fantasy football if his workload and efficiency also continue to decline.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
Derrick Henry (RB – FA): Overall 7 – RB6
If I was drafting today, there’s no chance I would take Derrick Henry with the seventh pick. As dominant as he was this year, I’m always leery of spending a high pick on a guy in this situation. It’s human nature to exhale and sag your shoulders after you get paid, and sometimes that chip falls off and you lose a bit of the edge that got you paid in the first place. I think he’ll run hard no matter who he plays for, but he seemed to be in that perfect storm last year, and that can be hard to recreate. If he does end up staying in Tennessee I’ll reconsider this ranking, but there are too many ifs tagged to his name right now. I don’t foresee a 2019 Melvin Gordon scenario, but if I owned any Derrick Henry stock right now, I’d sell high.
– Sheldon Curtis (@sheldon_curtis)
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN): Overall 32 – WR14
Sutton is currently going off as an early fourth-rounder in 10-team leagues, and I won’t be paying anywhere near that for him. He was a solid contributor last season, totaling over 1,100 yards and almost always leading the Broncos in targets by a healthy margin. Before Drew Lock took over, Sutton averaged almost 76 receiving yards per game. After Lock was at the helm, Sutton saw that average drop to 56 yards per game. Across the five games that Lock started, Sutton had three games with a catch rate of 50% or less. In the 11 games before Lock, he had just two games with a 50%-or-worse catch rate. Sutton may be fine if Lock improves his efficiency a bit, but I’d rather take a chance on some of the other receivers around his ADP like Keenan Allen, A.J. Brown, or Juju Smith-Schuster.
– Donald Gibson (@DonaldGibsonFF)
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): Overall 6 – RB5
Kamara ranked as the sixth-best fantasy player overall for 2020 is an overcorrection rooted in fallacy. Kamara is a tremendous talent, one that had drafters considering him inside the top-two picks in drafts last year after he scored 273 fantasy points and ranked as the number four overall player. However, this strong season was highlighted by 14 rushing touchdowns and four receiving scores, a total that screamed regression in 2019. Well, regression hit hard, as Kamara only scored six combined touchdowns in 2019. Advocates will say Kamara was hurt, missing Weeks 7 and 8 with ankle and knee injuries. Kamara says he’s fully healthy now, claiming he played the 2019 season “on one leg.” His admission only serves to underscore my point. He’s not built for a heavy workload, so his fantasy production is tied entirely to efficiency. The older Drew Brees gets, the less the Saints lean on the vertical passing game to open up things underneath for Kamara in the passing game. Brees’ intended air yards per pass attempt dropped from 7.1 in 2018 to 6.4 in 2019. As such, the team has relied more on a balanced rushing attack, one that features a bigger, stronger inside runner like Mark Ingram or Latavius Murray in more of a 1B role than just a change-of-pace back. There’s no doubting Kamara is a special talent, one that deserves to be taken in the first round of fantasy drafts. However, it’s probably more pragmatic to rank him as a top-12 overall player rather than a top-six player, especially given the rushers ahead of him are likely to touch the ball almost twice as much.
– Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs)