Fantasy Football Rankings: Expert Consensus vs. MyFantasyLeague ADP (2020)

Similar to the stock market, fantasy football success can be found by exploiting market inefficiencies. As it applies to fantasy football drafts, Average Draft Position (ADP) is one of the data points we can use to identify who the public is higher and lower on. There is a tremendous amount of information out there that fantasy football drafters can use, but ADP is highly relevant because it can guide you on whether you’ll need to reach on a player or can wait an extra round or two to get the guy that you want.

Each fantasy provider has its own ADP data, and for the purpose of this article I’ll be comparing the ADP from MyFantasyLeague.com to FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) in order to identify the current discrepancies in data. If you want to run an analysis like this of your own, check out FantasyPros’ Dissenting Opinions tool!

While the ADP data and ECR will both surely change over the coming months, it will help us get a sense of who players are already lower or higher on relative to the rankings. It’s (very) early in the 2020 redraft fantasy preparation process, but how fantasy football drafters feel about players now will often translate similarly to draft season.

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Quarterback

ECR likes him more

 
ADP likes him more

 
All three of the quarterbacks that are favored by ECR have a future somewhat up in the air. Brees announced the other week that he’s returning for the 2020 season, but he still hasn’t officially been signed by the New Orleans Saints. Meanwhile, Winston is set to hit free agency if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers don’t resign him or hit him with the franchise tag. Similarly, Newton has been rumored as a likely trade candidate, even though new head coach Matt Rhule proclaimed his excitement to have Newton on the team this fall.

That uncertainty is likely what’s driving down each of their respective ADPs. That said, both Brees and Winston finished in the top eight quarterbacks in points per game last year. Concerns of Newton’s health could be another contributing factor to a lower ADP, as he suffered a Lisfranc injury in 2019 and battled a bum shoulder in 2018.

Of the quarterbacks with higher ADP, two of them – Wentz and Mayfield – could be considered post-hype sleepers. Both Wentz and Mayfield were drafted among the top six quarterbacks heading into 2019, but finished outside the top 12 quarterbacks in points per game, making drafters cool off on their potential for 2020.

Jones will be entering his sophomore season, and it doesn’t seem like his 12 interceptions and 18 fumbles are turning drafters away from his potential. However, per Mike Tagliere’s 175 Interesting Facts article, Jones’ ceiling is as high as any quarterback’s as he had two of the top-10 single-game performances by a quarterback in 2019 and the only other quarterbacks who can say that are Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson.

Running Back

ECR likes him more

 
ADP likes him more

 
The list of running backs that ECR likes more begins with Carson, whom the public is way down on following a career year. It could be based on fears that Carson isn’t able to return healthy from a hip injury, or that he was close to being benched after experiencing fumbling issues. But, a 13 spot difference is quite dramatic and could offer a large value on draft day if this holds.

Lindsay has been the lead back with the Denver Broncos for the past couple of seasons, though  Freeman was a bit more involved this past season. If that trend of having a committee approach continues, it will justify his lower ADP.

Finally, Freeman has been linked to being a cap casualty this spring, so he may end up on a new team. That, combined with his inability to stay healthy (has not played all 16 games since 2016), is likely driving down his ADP.

The two backs that are favored by the public are both being taken near the top of drafts. Though it isn’t a large difference between the ECR and ADP, at that point in the draft it can be very significant and can drastically impact a fantasy team’s season. Chubb was one of the league’s best rushers in 2019, finishing second in total rushing yards on the season. Additionally, Chubb had a healthy workload throughout the year as he was one of only two running backs with at least 20 rushing attempts in at least eight games last year.

Sanders came into his own near the end of the season and looked every bit a workhorse as any running back. Sanders eclipsed an 85 percent snap share in each of the three games from Weeks 11 through 13, a feat no running back had accomplished in the three prior years that Doug Pederson had been coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. There are certainly plenty of reasons to like either of these guys heading into 2020, and I don’t think it would shock many to see them out-perform ECR.

Wide Receiver

ECR likes him more

 
ADP likes him more

 
At wide receiver, it’s a difference between old and young players. ECR seems to like the more experienced players who have a track record of success under their belt. Jones has been a perennial stud receiver, finishing in the top-six of the position for each of the last six seasons. ECR expects this trend to continue, but drafters are expecting a decline to come for Jones in his 10th season.

Similarly, after finishing in the top 15 twice in the past three years, Hilton is coming off of an injury-riddled season in the post-Andrew Luck era. Hilton has a large discount right now despite ECR indicating he’s still worthy of WR2 status.

Parker has a bit of a different story, as it took him six years to finally break out into the star that everyone hoped he would be. Parker set career-high marks in every major statistical category last year, yet drafters seem to think that is the exception to the rule.

As far as the receivers with higher ADP than ECR, both Samuel and Brown are both coming off of impressive rookie seasons. Brown shocked the world with his incredible end-of-year performance, finishing as the WR1 from Weeks 12 through 17. Similarly, Samuel finished second on the San Francisco 49ers in targets and showed explosiveness in the running game, rushing 14 times for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns during the regular season.

For Smith-Schuster, most people seem to believe that the fourth-year receiver will bounce back after a disappointing season with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges throwing him the ball for the majority of the year. The Pittsburgh Steelers threw the ball 11 times per game fewer in 2019 than they did in 2018, the most significant decrease in passing attempts this past season. While they may not get back to 2018 levels, I certainly expect them to come closer to the mean in 2020.

Tight End

ECR likes him more

 
ADP likes him more

 
Both of the tight ends that ECR likes more are nearing the end of their careers but were still able to be productive fantasy assets last year. However, Cook and Rudolph’s production both came in bunches and neither provided much consistency at the position. A lot of Cook’s success was built on the nine touchdowns that he scored, seven of which came in the final seven games of the season. Though he was extremely productive, he did so on just 4.6 targets per game, which is likely what’s scaring potential drafters.

Similarly, most of Rudolph’s damage came when Adam Thielen was out of the lineup – 54 percent of Rudolph’s fantasy points were scored in the 5 games that Thielen missed and Rudolph played in. With the potential emergence of Irv Smith Jr. and the Minnesota Vikings’ focus on running the ball, it makes sense that drafters don’t want much to do with Rudolph.

The three tight ends that ADP favors more than ECR have shown flashes of excellence in their short careers. On a points-per-game basis, Engram finished sixth among tight ends last year, but his ability to stay healthy remains a concern as he only played eight games last year.

Gesicki was one of the more heavily-used tight ends when the Miami Dolphins got into the red zone. He saw 11 end zone targets last year, which was tied for the league lead among tight ends. This contributed to a 9.8 percent touchdown rate, which ranked seventh among tight ends, per RotoUnderworld.

Finally, now that Greg Olsen is no longer with the Carolina Panthers, Thomas will get an opportunity to be the full-time tight end as he enters his third year in the league. Over the past two seasons, Thomas has averaged 6 targets per game, 3.8 receptions per game, and 38 receiving yards per game in the games that Olsen has missed.

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Sam Hoppen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Sam, check out his archive and follow him @SamHoppen.