Week 5 is here, and a quarter of the NFL regular season has now ended. I hope that your DFS bankroll is trending in the right direction, and if it’s not, I hope you’re at least having some fun!
Each week, I’ll break down the projected player roster percentages at the top DFS sites. These figures are generated based on numbers pulled from full-slate contests, so they won’t be perfectly accurate, but they give us a good measurement of who’s popular.
Check out our full Projected Roster % Report here 
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson is near chalk this week. You should bet on him in cash leagues and bet against him in tournaments. FanDuel users seem excited about the post-Bill O’Brien era’s prospects, and Jacksonville’s defense is the perfect opponent for Watson to turn his 2020 season around. The three of C.J. Henderson, Myles Jack, and Josh Allen are all questionable, and if even one of them misses time, Watson’s prospects improve considerably.
Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Patrick Mahomes should all be relatively popular plays as well. The three of them are playing in should-be blowouts, as their teams are all heavily favored against the spread. Mahomes has a particularly excellent against the Raiders in his career, and he’s my favorite of the three this week.
Five other players make this list in the 5-10% range. All of them, except Kyler Murray, are cheaper plays. Big Ben could have a good day against a struggling Eagles team, and Gardner Minshew will have to pass often to keep pace with Watson. Matt Ryan and Teddy Bridgewater will also duel in what should be a high-scoring game, although the Panthers’ weakness thus far has been on the ground, so I have to favor Bridgewater here.
Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End
At running back, Ezekiel Elliott is chalk this week. The Cowboys should get ahead of the Giants early and keep the ball on the ground, and that’ll give Elliott plenty of chances to score.
A bevy of other runners make the list at 10-20% — Mike Davis, James Robinson, Kenyan Drake, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Todd Gurley. Davis’ passing-game involvement gives him a higher floor than most backs, so it’s not surprising to see him listed here. Robinson, Edwards-Helaire, and Gurley are strong matchup-based plays; their opponents are three of the five worst defenses against running backs. I’m surprised to see so many Drake truthers out there, and he’s a fade for me in all formats this week.
We don’t have any clear chalk at wide receiver or tight end this week. DeAndre Hopkins, Robby Anderson, and Tyreek Hill should all be popular plays in high-scoring games, but their opponents don’t yield tons of points to receivers.
Only George Kittle and Travis Kelce make this list at tight end, and while they’re both expensive, they’re both the best pass-catchers in their respective offenses. Kittle is a decent value even at $7,100, while Kelce is a great play because of his past showings against the Raiders with Mahomes under center — he has averaged 18.3 FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) across four appearances.
Defense
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Not much consensus at defense this week. It’s not surprising to see the Steelers listed here, but it is surprising to see how cheap they are. I’ll take the team leading the NFL in sacks per game (5.0) against the 20th-ranked offensive line every time, thank you very much. The Ravens and Rams are good options with higher prices, although some of Baltimore’s best playmakers, like Marcus Peters, are nursing injuries.
Both sides of the 49ers and Dolphins game make the list. While the Dolphins haven’t been an offensive juggernaut this season, the 49ers’ banged-up defense isn’t particularly attractive to me. The Dolphins are a fine choice at their price point as the 49ers should opt to run out the clock after building a modest lead — don’t expect a high-scoring blowout in Jimmy Garoppolo’s first game back.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
