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DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 14 (2020)

by Isaiah Sirois | @is_sirois | Featured Writer
Dec 9, 2020

As both the NFL and our world continue to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, football can be a healthy distraction, and daily fantasy sport (DFS) sites offer a fun way to get skin in the game. Let’s break down the Week 14 slate at DraftKings.

If you want to fire up some studs in your DFS lineups, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.

Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from the week before!

Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DraftKings Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Last Week’s Picks

Quarterback
Mike Glennon (JAC): 15.1 points (3.14x)

Running Back
David Montgomery (CHI): 27.1 points (4.92x) 
Frank Gore (NYJ): 0.2 points (0.05x) — Injured

Wide Receivers
Sterling Shepard (NYG): 5.2 points (0.98x)
Keelan Cole (JAC): 1.7 points (0.50x)

Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki (MIA): 23.8 points (5.67x)

Aside from the wide receivers (and Gore’s injury), I had a pretty good week. Targeting defenses that underperform against specific positions worked out with Montgomery and Gesicki, but it didn’t with Shepard. Maybe I should’ve put less of my faith in Colt McCoy’s ability to get him the ball. Oh well, we’re onto the next week!

This Week’s Value Plays 

Quarterback

Mike Glennon (JAC): $5,100 vs. TEN
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Glennon has hit value in the last two weeks, and head coach Doug Marrone announced that he’d remain the starter in Week 14. Glennon has completed 62.3 of his passes for 515 yards, three scores, and two picks — those aren’t great numbers, but they’re enough to make him a high-floor value play. The veteran also has an easy matchup on tap this week, as the Titans give up the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to the position (23.7). Jacksonville scored 30 points against the Titans back in Week 2, and Gardner Minshew threw for 300-plus yards and three passing scores in that game. Look for Glennon to do something similar this Sunday.

Honorable mention: Sam Darnold (NYJ): $5,100 at SEA.

Running Back

Melvin Gordon (DEN): $5,200 at CAR
Gordon should not be this cheap. He ranks 12th in total rushing attempts (149), ahead of guys like Jonathan Taylor (148) and Antonio Gibson (141), and he ranks fifth in targets (31) for the Broncos, ahead of Royce Freeman (10) and Phillip Lindsay (9). His high-volume role has led him to average 13 DKPPG this season and 13.5 DKPPG over the last three weeks. The Broncos will play the Carolina Panthers this week, and they give up the seventh-most DKPPG to running backs (26.6). They’ve been especially vulnerable through the air, as they’ve surrendered the sixth-most receptions (72) and ninth-most receiving yards (487) to the position. That bodes well for Gordon, and he should easily hit value by posting an above-average total this week.

J.D. McKissic (WAS): $4,900 at SF
This play is a little counterintuitive. The 49ers give up the fifth-fewest DKPPG to running backs (20.1), so McKissic doesn’t have a great matchup. However, teammate Antonio Gibson is likely to miss the game, which means more opportunities for McKissic. With the 49ers favored by a field goal, Washington may have to pass often to keep up. That’s good news for McKissic, as the running back ranks second on the team in targets (78) and receptions (56). McKissic just needs to reel in an above-average number of passes (roughly nine) for his average number of yards per reception (7.3, so 65.7 total yards) to clear value, and that’s well within his range of outcomes if Gibson can’t play.

Honorable mention: David Johnson (HOU): $5,200 at CHI.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Boyd (CIN): $4,900 vs. DAL
When Joe Burrow went down, I immediately sold Tyler Boyd in the one redraft league I managed him in. You can’t really trust him without Burrow — but you should this week. Boyd is coming off a one-catch performance in Week 13, but his one catch went for a 72-yard score, and he was ejected from the game in the first half. While Boyd has only caught four passes in his last two appearances, he’s been targeted 10 times, trailing only Drew Sample (12) and Tee Higgins (12) — and Boyd played in two fewer quarters through that span! His Week 14 opponent, the Dallas Cowboys, give up the sixth-most DKPPG to wide receivers (42.4), making him a fantastic buy-low candidate for Sunday.

Breshad Perriman (NYJ): $3,900 at SEA
I don’t like the Jets, but they’re playing Seattle, and the Seahawks give up the most DKPGG to wide receivers by a 5.7-point margin. That’s a wider gap than the one between the second-worst Falcons and the 13th-worst Raiders. That’s great news for New York Jets wideouts Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims, as they should both be able to get open downfield. It’s hard to pick which one of them to use, as they’re neck-and-neck in their share of New York’s air yards (Perriman: 18.5%, Mims: 19%) and targets (Perriman: 11.1%, Mims: 10.6%). I would roll with Perriman because he’s $200 cheaper and offers you the same upside, but Mims isn’t a bad play, either.

Honorable mention: Denzel Mims (NYJ): $4,100 at SEA.

Tight End

Jordan Akins (HOU): $2,900 at CHI
The Texans have lost three of their four best wide receivers of the last few weeks. The resulting power vacuum led Chad Hansen and Keke Coutee to lead the Texans in receiving yards against the Colts, but Akins is in line for more production, too. While he only drew three targets against them, their defense has allowed the eighth-fewest receptions to tight ends all year, so he should rebound against a weaker opponent. Enter Chicago. They’ve locked down opposing wideouts for the fourth-fewest DKPPG, but they’ve given up the fifth-most DKPPG to tight ends instead. Deshaun Watson should find Akins and Darren Fells ($2,500) often in Chicago.

Honorable mention: Dalton Schultz (DAL): $3,500 at CIN.

Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DraftKings Lineup Optimizer tool >>


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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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