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DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 17 (2020)

DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 17 (2020)

It’s championship time in redraft leagues. If you made it, congratulations! If not, there’s always next season. But before then, why not try your hand at daily fantasy? If you draft a poor lineup, you won’t have to suffer through it for a full year — you’ll be able to change things up as soon as next week!

If you want to fire up some studs in your DFS lineups, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.

Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from the week before!

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Last Week’s Picks

Quarterback
Drew Lock (DEN): 16.1 points (3.22x)

Running Back
Giovani Bernard (CIN): 20.1 points (4.12x) 
Darrell Henderson (LAR): 6.2 points (1.37x) — Injured

Wide Receivers
Mike Williams (LAC): 9.4 points (2.09x)
Darnell Mooney (CHI): 8.1 points (2.03x)

Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert (PHI): 6.8 points (1.88x)

After a fantastic Week 15, we were due for some regression, and a lot of my favorite plays from last week failed to hit their ceilings. I can play Henderson’s disappointing performance off due to injury, but Williams, Mooney, and Goedert all busted due to a lack of usage. Mea culpa.

This Week’s Value Plays 

Quarterback

Mason Rudolph (PIT): $4,300 at CLE
One value play is heads and tails better than the alternatives at his position, and that honor falls to Mason Rudolph. The backup quarterback is priced at just $4,300, below guys like Ben DiNucci ($4,700) and Jeff Driskel ($4,500). While Rudolph was ineffective at times last season, he hit value against this price point in half of his starts. He infamously tossed four picks against the Browns last year in a game that saw Myles Garrett suspended, but every Cleveland player who picked him off is no longer on the roster. This year, the Browns have given up the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks (21.8), and that makes Rudolph a fantastic value play at his current price.

Honorable mention: John Wolford (LAR) $4,900 vs. ARI.

Running Back

Nyheim Hines (IND): $4,900 vs. JAC
Do you remember Week 1? Hines exploded for 27.3 DK points against the Jaguars back then, including eight receptions and a pair of touchdowns. While Jonathan Taylor has since taken over this backfield, the Jaguars give up the third-most DKPPG to running backs (29.7), and Hines averages enough touches per game (9.6) to hit value in the soft matchup. He’s a fantastic floor play with matchup-based upside — especially if the Colts get out to a big lead and decide to rest Taylor.

Malcolm Brown (LAR): $4,300 vs. ARI
Darrell Henderson is out. So is Jared Goff. The Rams also may not get Cam Akers back in time for this one, either. Brown is the last healthy player in this backfield, and he should get plenty of work in a must-win game against the Arizona Cardinals. To be fair, the Cardinals aren’t exactly a team to target; they field a league-average unit against opposing rushers. Still, the Rams’ three-headed committee totaled 195 scrimmage yards and two scores the last time these teams met, and Brown should get plenty of opportunities to exploit them on Sunday.

Honorable mention: Gus Edwards (BAL) $4,900 at CIN.

Wide Receiver

Sterling Shepard (NYG): $5,200 vs. DAL
The New York Giants have looked terrible in recent weeks. Daniel Jones and Colt McCoy have failed to get this offense rolling, but that hasn’t always hurt Sterling Shepard too terribly. He just scored 22.7 DK points in last week’s 20-6 loss to the Browns! Shepard is averaging 7.3 targets and 5.3 receptions per game, and he’s a relatively high-floor option with some touchdown upside should the Giants get into the red zone. The matchup isn’t bad for him, either, as the Dallas Cowboys give up the fifth-most DKPPG to opposing wideouts.

Kendrick Bourne (SF): $4,300 vs. SEA
Bourne scored 16.1 DK points the last time he faced the Seahawks. He led the team in targets (10) and receptions (8) despite playing alongside Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle for most of the day — and despite Jimmy Garoppolo getting replaced by Nick Mullens late in the game. Despite their recent defensive improvements, the Seahawks are still giving up the most DKPPG to wideouts by a full point. With Aiyuk out for Week 17, Bourne is one of the few viable receiving weapons left for C.J. Beathard to target.

Honorable mention: Jerry Jeudy (DEN) $4,200 vs. LV.

Tight End

Eric Ebron (PIT): $4,000 at CLE
Quarterback Mason Rudolph will start for Pittsburgh this weekend, and in his eight starts last season, then-lead tight end Vance McDonald averaged 4.4 targets per game. That suggests a steady enough floor for Ebron, who now gets most of Ebron’s looks in this offense. Ebron is already averaging 6.1 targets per game of his own this year. The Browns give up the third-most DKPPG to opposing tight ends (15.9), too, which points to Ebron as a strong value option on this slate.

Honorable mention: Rob Gronkowski $4,500 vs.ATL.

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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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