I generally find myself riding the struggle bus through the finals weeks of December every year, but even more so in the year of the pandemic. It’s been a loooooong year, and it’s been an unusually grinding fantasy season, too.
I get it, writing about fantasy sports is a pretty sweet gig, and I shouldn’t be complaining. But I’m guessing you’re feeling the grind as a fantasy manager, too. Chaos has always been a big part of fantasy football, whether it be injuries or just the seemingly random turns of fortune that occur during the course of an NFL game. But never before have we had the rug constantly pulled out from under us like we have in 2020. Every fantasy season is a rollercoaster ride, but this year it’s the Demon Drop.
Instead of just getting to know the backup RB on every team, this year we’ve had to familiarize ourselves with the third- and fourth-string backs, not to mention the occasional practice squader. We’ve had to watch Kendall Hinton play quarterback. We’ve had to figure out whether to risk starting players who don’t play until Tuesday or Wednesday and could have their games canceled with a single positive test.
If you’ve managed to make it through this entire season without one of your key players getting hurt or landing on the Covid list, consider investing in some lottery tickets, pronto. For most of us, our teams have been in a constant state of flux, always needing our time and attention like a newborn baby. So it only makes sense we are as burned out as a new parent (if you don’t have children, just imagine having to get up every hour of the night to adjust your roster for six months straight).
But we keep grinding because we can’t abandon our beloved child, our fantasy team! Ok, this analogy is getting a little out of hand, but you get the point. This is only a game, and a mighty fun one at that, but it’s also intense. We’ve got two more weeks to go to lock down that fantasy championship, and whether you win or lose, I highly recommend that you take a little time to recharge the batteries when you’re done. For me, it’ll almost certainly consist of replacing some Twitter scrolling with a good book and subbing out the Sunday Ticket for an absorbing TV show or two. Until then, we keep at it.
I hit on 5 of my 8 overvalued and undervalued picks for Week 14, but the common denominator was weak fantasy lines all around. All four of my overvalued players — Kyler Murray, Gio Bernard, DeVante Parker, and Hunter Henry — failed to justify their ECR, which is the good news. The bad news is that three of my four undervalued players also fell flat: Tom Brady, James Conner, and Dallas Goedert. The one glaring exception was rookie Brandon Aiyuk, who more than justified my faith in him. Aiyuk is quickly becoming one of the biggest breakout stars in fantasy and could be a true difference-maker down the stretch now that Deebo Samuel is dealing with yet another injury.
As always, my overvalued and undervalued picks for Week 15 are against FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings for 0.5 PPR formats. Hit me up on Twitter @andrew_seifter for lineup and roster questions, and check out my waiver wire pickups every Tuesday and strategy tips every Saturday on MFSN’s The Hub on YouTube.
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Quarterback
Overvalued: Russell Wilson (SEA)
ECR: QB6
My Rank: QB11
Yes, I’m aware that Russ tossed four touchdowns last week against the pitiful Jets, but I think it’s time we adjust our expectations for him a bit. In many respects, Wilson’s year has been the story of two seasons. He threw for at least 288 yards in six of his first eight games but has not done it in any game since. Likewise, he tossed 3+ touchdowns in six of his first seven contests, but he’s done it only once over the last six games (in the aforementioned Jets game). Over his last five games, Wilson is 25th among QBs in fantasy points, an astonishing fall from grace for an early-season MVP. It almost feels generous to keep him inside the top-12 while on the road against an excellent Washington Football Team defense that ranks third in the league against the pass.
Undervalued: Kirk Cousins (MIN)
ECR: QB18
My Rank: QB12
Everyone seems quick to jump off the Kirk Cousins bandwagon after he predictably struggled to put up big fantasy numbers on the road in Tampa Bay last week, but not me. The man has been nothing short of unstoppable at home this season, and I expect that to continue against a Chicago defense that isn’t nearly as intimidating as it might seem. These are Cousins’ yardage and touchdown totals in his seven home starts to date: 259-2, 251-3, 343-3, 220-3, 314-3, 307-3, 305-3. That’s right, he’s thrown three TDs in six straight home starts! As for the Bears, they held Deshaun Watson in check last week when he had no one to throw to, but got lit up by Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford the previous two weeks and merely rank 15th against the pass for the season. Cousins himself threw for 292 yards and two TDs against Chicago in Week 10, even though that matchup was in the Windy City.
Running Back
Overvalued: Devin Singletary (BUF)
ECR: RB29
My Rank: RB37
There is certainly a case to be made that Singletary is once again the preferable fantasy option over Zack Moss, but sometimes the right answer is “none of the above.” The Bills are a top-10 scoring offense, so you’d think that their “lead” back would at least be a viable RB3/flex option, but that’s simply not the case. Singletary has only delivered double-digit fantasy points in two games all season, and they just so happen to have been two of the three games that Moss missed due to injury. In the eight games since Moss returned, Singletary ranks as the RB48.
Part of the problem is that there is no rhyme or reason to whether Singletary or Moss will play the most snaps in any given week, although Singletary has been on the short end of the stick more often than not. Another issue is that Buffalo simply isn’t a strong rushing team, ranking 22nd in the league. This week’s matchup with Denver is favorable, but no matchup can make up for the deficiencies of Singletary as a fantasy option.
Undervalued: Leonard Fournette (TB)
ECR: RB35
My Rank: RB20
At first, I assumed Fournette was merely ranked so low because people hadn’t yet adjusted for Ronald Jones’ likely absence, but Jones’ current ECR is RB90. Fournette may rise a bit more in the rankings when it becomes official that Jones is out, but probably not up to RB20, where I have him. So let’s take this opportunity to talk about Fournette as a plug-and-play RB2 for the fantasy semifinals.
The Bucs surprisingly made Fournette a healthy scratch last week, but let’s remember that different backs play different roles in an offense. Bucs coach Bruce Arians may have simply viewed Fournette’s skill set as redundant to Jones’, and determined that LeSean McCoy would be the better option as a passing-down specialist last week. It’s a different situation with Jones out, and Fournette appears set to serve as the team’s starter and lead back. If you want to get a sense of the fantasy value of that role, look no further than Jones, who is the RB13 for the season and is fourth in the league with 900 rushing yards. Fournette is a riskier start than Jones would have been — and this week’s matchup with Atlanta is no cakewalk, either — but I’d still consider Fournette as a top-20 option given the upside in this offense. The talent gap between Jones and Fournette isn’t that drastic.
Wide Receiver
Overvalued: Chase Claypool (PIT)
ECR: WR30
My Rank: WR44
Anyone who has watched a Steelers game this season can see that Claypool is an incredible talent, but talent is only part of the equation. Another big piece is usage, and that’s Claypool’s Achilles heel right now. Over the last two games, Claypool has played fewer snaps than James Washington, who led the team in receiving last season and is a decent talent himself. Diontae Johnson was temporarily benched last week for dropping passes, but he was given a chance to redeem himself in the second half, and as long as he and JuJu Smith-Schuster are hogging 90+ percent of the snaps, Claypool is going to be a secondary piece of the offense.
It helps Claypool’s case that Pittsburgh can’t run the ball, but you have to think they will make a concerted effort to get the ground game going in a very winnable game against Cincinnati, especially if they get off to an early lead. So if Claypool only plays 40-50 percent of the snaps, you’re likely going to need a big play — and probably a TD — for him to pay off as a WR3.
Undervalued: DJ Moore (CAR)
ECR: WR33
My Rank: WR23
Moore missed Week 14 while on the Covid list, but he’s officially back and belongs in fantasy lineups as a WR2 for the semifinals. For all the talk that Moore has disappointed in 2020, or that Robby Anderson has surpassed him as the Panthers’ top receiver, Moore is currently the WR20 in fantasy points per game. Not too shabby. He’s also been quite consistent, producing 49+ yards in 11 of his 12 games and 93+ yards in half of them. This week’s matchup with Green Bay and elite cornerback Jaire Alexander isn’t exactly ideal, but Robby Anderson is likely to see more of Alexander than Moore does. Unless we hear that Moore is dealing with any lingering effects of Covid-19, he’s an appealing start.
Tight End
Overvalued: Jordan Reed (SF)
ECR: TE13
My Rank: TE18
Given the state of the position, it is hard to really hate on any tight end ranked in this range, but I am shying away from Reed as a TE streamer this week. Considering his extensive injury history, the 49ers are probably wise to limit Reed’s usage, but it is nonetheless taking a toll on his fantasy value. Reed has consistently played fewer snaps than fellow tight end Ross Dwelley, and his number of pass routes run has similarly been limited. As a result, Reed has failed to make much of a dent in fantasy, ranking as the TE24 in fantasy points per game (George Kittle was only active in one of the 8 games Reed has played in). While a matchup with Dallas always seems appealing, the Cowboys have actually given up the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.
Undervalued: Irv Smith Jr. (MIN)
ECR: TE18
My Rank: TE11
Regular readers of this column and viewers of MFSN’s The Hub probably already know that I’m a big fan of Irv Smith, but I am going back to the well yet again for the fantasy semifinals. Smith passes the eye test every time he’s given an opportunity, and he should get one again this week with Kyle Rudolph looking likely to miss a second straight game. Smith only played 35 percent of the snaps last week as he worked his way back from a groin injury, but that was enough to produce a solid 4-63-1 receiving line. He was a 60-80 percent snap rate player earlier in the season and should return to at least that level of involvement for this key divisional battle with Chicago. The Bears have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends and given Cousins’ stellar play at home, a big game could be in store for Irv.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
