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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (1/9)

Jan 9, 2021

Bam Adebayo is one of the best plays on the board.

DFS is not for the faint of heart, and basketball might honestly be the toughest sport of the bunch. There are so many random scratches and so much resting going on that it makes it the toughest DFS sports out there. That’s why we make these articles, though, because we want to help you guys get better. For this Saturday slate, we have seven games on the docket, which is the perfect amount, in my opinion. Not too much, and not too little! Without further ado, let’s go ahead and get into it.

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Damian Lillard (POR) at SAC $9,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Trae Young (ATL) vs. CHA $9,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Raul Neto (WAS) vs. MIA $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Lillard is in full takeover mode, and he’ll find his way into the studs section.
  • The same goes for Trae.
  • Neto has started for Russell Westbrook twice this year already, averaging 30 DK points per game.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Bradley Beal (WAS) vs. MIA $10,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Terrence Ross (ORL) at DAL $6,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Patty Mills (SAN) at MIN $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Beal might be the hottest player in the NBA right now, and we’ll talk about that in the studs section.
  • With so many injuries in Orlando, Ross could be looking at 20 shots and 30 minutes of play. That’s all we can ask for from a guy who’s already averaging 30 DK points per game in a bench role.
  • Mills has been a pleasant surprise with 23 DK points per game, which makes him a heck of a value against a bad T’Wolves defense.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
DeMar DeRozan (SAN) at MIN $7,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jimmy Butler (MIA) at WAS $7,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Harrison Barnes (SAC) vs. POR $6,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • DeRozan has been rolling this year, and we love him in this matchup. We’ll discuss that more later.
  • Butler is typically $1,000 more on DraftKings, and we definitely want to exploit this low price against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
  • Barnes has quietly had a really nice year for the Kings. Not only is he averaging 32 DraftKings points per game, but he’s also scored at least 29 fantasy points in all but one game this year.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. CLE $10,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
P.J. Washington (CHA) vs. ATL $5,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Maxi Kleber (DAL) vs. ORL $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Giannis looks well on his way to some more MVP votes, and we’ll go over that in the studs section.
  • Washington has been outstanding since Cody Zeller went down, averaging 32 DK points per game since the opener. We love that against a 26th-ranked Hawks defense.
  • Kleber just played 36 minutes on Thursday, and if he continues to do that, he should be at least $1,000 more.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Bam Adebayo (MIA) vs. WAS $8,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Clint Capela (ATL) at CHA $7,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jusuf Nurkic (POR) at SAC $6,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Bam is one of the best plays on the board against a subpar Wizards defense. We say that because he has a 27-point floor and a 40-point average and gets to face a Washington team surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing centers. Look for that 40 DK points to be the floor here.
  • Capela has scored at least 31 DraftKings points in four-straight games since his minute’s restriction was lifted. We love that against a weak Charlotte frontcourt.
  • Nurk is finally showing some signs of life. He’s got at least 26 DK points in three-straight games and gets to face a Kings team that owns a 28th OPRK against opposing centers.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($10,800): While the MVP got off to a slow start, he’s been absolutely crushing it recently. In fact, Giannis is averaging 30.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.3 blocks over his last four games. That even includes a couple of blowouts, and he should be able to continue that against this lackluster Cavaliers team.
  • Bradley Beal, WAS ($9,700): With Westbrook likely sitting this game out, Beal is the best option out there. He’s got a usage rate approaching 40 percent with Westbrook off the floor and has been cruising with him on it too. Not only does he have at least 40 DraftKings points in every game this season, but Beal is also averaging 58 fantasy points per game across his last three outings.
  • Damian Lillard, POR ($9,500): Lillard just dropped a season-best 67 DK points on Thursday night, doing that damage in just three-quarters of action. He should continue that, averaging 50 fantasy points per game across his last four fixtures. Not to mention, the Kings surrender the most fantasy points in the league to opposing point guards.
  • Trae Young, ATL ($9,400): Young was downright terrible in his last game against the Hornets, but we’re going right back to the well. He has at least 38 DK points in each of his first seven games before that dud, and we expect him to surpass that total here against a 16th-ranked Hornets defense.
  • DeMar DeRozan, SAN ($7,800): DeRozan has quietly had an All-Star season for the Spurs, averaging 19.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game. That makes him really enticing against a T’Wolves team that owns the worst defensive efficiency in the NBA.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Russell Westbrook, WAS ($10,000): Since we like Beal, we have to be concerned with Westbrook. What really scares us is the fact that Russ is dealing with a dislocated finger. That will make him less effective if he plays, and that’s a big IF. We say that because this is the second half of a back-to-back set, and Westbrook rarely plays in both of those.
  • D’Angelo Russell, MIN ($8,100): Russell has been good the last two games, but he was terrible before that. In fact, Russell has only surpassed 40 DK points once all season, averaging 32 DK points per game. That’s not good enough at this price, and it’s scary that he has to match up with an elite defender like Dejounte Murray here.
  • John Collins, ATL ($7,500): Collins has surpassed 40 DK points once all season, averaging 33 DK points per game. That’s not good enough for a $7,500 guy.
  • Chris Paul, PHX ($7,100): Paul’s numbers have taken a huge hit next to Devin Booker. In eight games, Paul is averaging just 13.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 0.9 steals per game. Those are some of the worst averages of his career, and it’s unlikely to get any better against a sixth-ranked Pacers defense.
  • Myles Turner, IND ($6,000): Turner has been providing fantasy value through blocks alone, but that makes him hard to trust. If you take those out, he’s averaging just 11.9 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Those averages really scare us against a Suns team that allows the fewest points in the NBA.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – which helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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