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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Tuesday (1/26)

by Zachary Hanshew | @ZaktheMonster | Featured Writer
Jan 26, 2021

After a loaded Monday slate, things slow down quite a bit tonight with only three games on the docket. As always, we’ll name values, studs, and fades for the day’s DFS festivities. Let’s get right to it!

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Most Value Per Dollar 

This is an odd slate, given the litany of injuries, so you’ll really have to choose values carefully tonight. With all of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverley out for the Clippers, the team should turn to the likes of Lou Williams, Luke Kennard, and Marcus Morris to fill the void. Morris is the most dependable of the three, Kennard can heat up from downtown, and Williams always has a big game in his back pocket. Both of the latter options have played inconsistent minutes throughout the campaign, but Williams ($6K) offers a little more upside than Kennard ($5.5K). Reggie Jackson ($5K) should be in the mix as well.

With such a shallow player pool, it’s important to know which positions to target for expensive studs. The most value comes at the SF position this evening, with plenty of cheap options there. Center is another position with some great salary-savers, but you’ll need to spend up for at least one of Julius Randle ($9.1K) or John Collins ($7.4K) at PF with such a steep drop off to the next tier.

The Knicks/Jazz game has an over/under of just 212.5, and that’s a game environment to be wary of tonight. Instead, the Clippers/Hawks (o/u 224.5) and  Rockets/Wizards (o/u 232) offer game environments better suited for quality DFS production. For a full list of odds and spreads, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary.

Rajon Rondo (PG – ATL): $4,800 vs. LAC
Priced under $5K, Rondo makes a solid value tonight facing a Clippers team that will be down three of its key defenders in Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverley. Rondo has averaged better than 26 FD points across his last two games, and with Trae Young (back) out Sunday, Rondo logged a season-high 29 minutes. If Young sits tonight, expect Rondo to handle a similar workload.

Marcus Morris (PF – LAC): $5,000 at ATL
The absences of three Clipper starters tonight should give Morris a substantial boost in minutes and usage, making him a friendly, salary-saving option to attack Atlanta’s frontcourt.

Danuel House (SF – HOU): $4,000 vs. WAS
House averaged 32 minutes per game to start the season, and now that he’s back, he could step back into a substantial role for the Rockets in what figures to be a high-scoring and fast-paced contest. He’s not a cash-game option, but I’d like some shares of him in GPPs to pivot from the more popular options in Eric Gordon and Victor Oladipo.

Garrison Mathews (SF – WAS): $4,300 at HOU
Mathews has scored at least 20 FD points in three straight, highlighted by a 30.9-point showing back on Jan. 9 against Miami. Russell Westbrook isn’t firing on all cylinders right now, and while the rest of the team continues to deal with injuries, Mathews should be expected to remain involved with the offense. I’m willing to take a shot based on the highly-favorable game environment.

De’Andre Hunter (SF – ATL): $5,600 vs. LAC
Hunter has averaged nearly 30 FD points per game this season, but his ceiling is far beyond that. He went off for a season-best 44.8 FD points Sunday at Milwaukee, and tonight he’ll face a seriously undermanned Clippers squad. 

 

 

Alec Burks (SG – NYK): $5,300 at UTH
If you’re looking for scoring upside at a discount, Burks is your man. Prior to his 12-game absence, he started the year by averaging better than 20 points (and 33 FD points) across his first three contests. He returned to the Knicks’ lineup earlier this week and has played at least 27 minutes in each of his last three games, including a 31.3-FD point showing Sunday at Portland.

Jerome Robinson (PG – WAS): $3,600 at HOU
Even with Russell Westbrook back, Robinson got the start for Washington on Sunday as he moved to SF. He logged 35 minutes and provided 31 FD points. If he gets another start tonight, he’d be a huge value at a price near the very bottom of the salary range.

Immanuel Quickley (SG – NYK): $5,000 at UTH
Quickley’s playing time has been extremely frustrating and a bit head-scratching considering his offensive prowess, as the rookie just went for a career-high 31 points (39.6 FD points) at Portland on Sunday in just 24 minutes. Across his last five games, Quickley has posted 1.32 FD points per minute – fifth-best mark in the NBA. The talent is there, but his production is clearly dependent on playing time. I’ll take some shots on him in tournaments, but I’m staying away in cash games.

Robin Lopez (C – WAS): $4,800 at HOU
Don’t look now, but Lopez has averaged 9.5 points, 9.0 boards, and 3.5 assists across his last two games. He’ll get another favorable matchup tonight, and with nearly all of Washington’s frontcourt out, expect Lopez to see minutes in the mid-20’s and push for similar production. If you’re really looking to dig deep tonight, Alex Len ($4,000) makes a nice GPP target after he posted 19.5 FD points in 20 minutes off the bench Sunday in his Wizards debut.

Ivica Zubac (C – LAC): $5,300 at ATL
Zubac posted a season-best 29.7 FD points Sunday against the Thunder as he logged his most minutes (24) since the season opener. The big man’s playing time has been a bit erratic thus far, but with the team down three starters tonight, he should approach similar minutes against the Hawks who could be without shot-blocker extraordinaire Clint Capela.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Bradley Beal (SG – WAS) $10,300: Beal is hands down the best player in Washington and its highest-usage option. With Russell Westbrook struggling and half the team still on the shelf, Beal should get all the work he can handle against Houston tonight.
  • John Wall (PG – HOU) $7,700: Wall returned to action Saturday and posted 19.2 FD points across 20 minutes on the court. As he battles back from a knee injury that kept him out five games, his minutes should trend up, and that could start as early as tonight against Washington. There should be some extra motivation for Wall as he faces his former team.
  • DeMarcus Cousins (C – HOU) $7,200: Boogie has averaged 16.5 points, 16.0 boards, 6.0 assists and a block across his last two games with Christian Wood (ankle) on the shelf, and with Wood doubtful tonight, I like Cousins even as his price continues to climb.
  • Rudy Gobert (C – UTH) $8,300: On the season, the Knicks have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to centers, including the second-most blocks. That bodes well for Utah’s defensive stalwart.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Mitchell Robinson (C – NYK) $5,800: He’s got a tough matchup with Utah on tap tonight, and Blockinson has been a bit underwhelming across his last two games. I’d rather pay up for Boogie or Gobert or spend down for Zubac on this slate.
  • Russell Westbrook (PG – WAS) $9,900: He’s facing his team in a friendly matchup, but it’s tough to trust Russ after watching an atrocious performance against the Spurs on Sunday. I’d rather spend this money elsewhere.
  • Donovan Mitchell (SG – UTH) $8,500: He’s been hot as of late, but tonight’s matchup is a big pace-down game against the Knicks, who sport the Association’s slowest pace of play. Mitchell costs a pretty penny here, and I’d rather spend my money somewhere else on such a small slate.

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Zachary Hanshew is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.