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Overvalued & Undervalued Targets on Yahoo (2021 Fantasy Football)


 
One of the best things on FantasyPros is the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). Fantasy Football rankings are subjective, and as such, they vary from site to site and expert to expert. So as you are doing your pre-draft preparation, it is good to get as many opinions as possible, hence the value of the ECR.

Once draft day comes and you are in your draft room, though, you can often be swayed by the default rankings on the platform you are using. Those rankings are typically generated by one individual, or at best, a few. So it is good to know heading into your draft exactly where the largest variances occur.

Today we focus on the variances between the default rankings on Yahoo and the ECR. Please note that the Yahoo defaults were taken off of their half-point PPR cheat sheets (Yahoo can customize to your league settings, so they may differ a bit on your site). Below are the most significant variances that you should be aware of as you prepare for your draft.

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Quarterbacks

There aren’t a ton of huge variances amongst the top players, but there are two second-tier QB’s worth noting:

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
Yahoo: 23, ECR: 17 (+6)

There’s a fairly wide gap between the experts in the ECR about Tua this year, as his range is from QB #12 to QB #28. Yahoo falls pretty much in the middle at QB #23. He wasn’t very impressive during his rookie season last year, but he’s another year removed from the hip injury he sustained in his last game at Alabama. He also has a few new weapons at his disposal this year in Will Fuller V (WR – MIA) and Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA). Don’t forget that before his injury, there were plenty of chants from fans of QB-hungry teams to “Tank for Tua.”

Trey Lance (QB – SF)
Yahoo: 17, ECR: 24 (-7)

Lance has an ever bigger variance among the experts in the ECR, ranging from QB #12 to QB #37. Yahoo is more bullish on him than most. It’s not a question of Lance’s talent, as I think almost everyone would agree that his skill set could lead to Fantasy stardom right away. It’s more of a question as to when he’ll get the opportunity. He is still very raw as a prospect and almost assuredly won’t be the starter in Week 1. The 49ers gave up a lot to get him, though, and Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF) hasn’t been very durable, so he will likely get a shot at some point. The question is if you think the upside is worth the stash.

Running Backs

The biggest variances among Running Backs are centered around players who will likely be drafted for your bench. Still, it is worth paying attention to these guys as it is wise to accumulate as many RB’s as possible on draft day.

David Johnson (RB – HOU)
Yahoo: 46, ECR: 37 (+8)

Johnson’s range among the ECR experts is pretty massive: from RB #24 to RB #62. Yahoo is on the pessimistic side compared to most. Johnson was actually pretty serviceable last season when he played, but many are down on him as the Texans added Phillip Lindsay (RB – HOU) and Mark Ingram (RB – HOU) this offseason. Johnson will likely get the first crack at the job, though, so he’s probably a better bet to contribute early in the season than many of the players being drafted around him.

AJ Dillon (RB – GB)
Yahoo: 34, ECR: 41 (-7)

Dillon’s range is from RB #27 to RB #54, so Yahoo is on the optimistic side. Dillon would seem to have the potential to break out based on his pedigree and the limited work he got in 2020. With Jamaal Williams (RB – DET) now out of the way, Dillon is firmly entrenched as the back-up to Aaron Jones (RB – GB). Should something happen to Jones, Dillon’s value would skyrocket. But how much will Green Bay use him in the meantime?

Wide Receivers

There are so many great Wide Receivers this season that predictably there are many variances between the ECR and Yahoo rankings – especially on the players who will be bench pieces. These 2 guys will be starters in most leagues, though, so they could be more essential to your team’s success:

Kenny Golladay (WR – NYG)
Yahoo: 31, ECR: 25 (+6)

Golladay’s range is from WR #14 to WR #43 – from a solid 2nd WR to a bench piece. Yahoo seems to view him as more of a high-end bench player or a deep league starter. There are two questions surrounding Golladay, who’s still only 27 years old and was a Fantasy star in 2018 and 2019. First is his health. He missed much of last year due to injury and is already nursing a sore hamstring in camp this season. Second is the change in QB from Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR), a possible hall-of-famer, to Daniel Jones (QB – NYG), a possible future back-up. If you are playing for upside, Golladay is a great choice, but if you are looking for a high floor, he may not be the best option.

Robby Anderson (WR – CAR)
Yahoo: 26, ECR: 31 (-5)

Anderson’s range amongst the ECR experts is pretty wide, from WR #22 to WR #49. Yahoo sits near the top of the range. Anderson had by far his best Fantasy season last year, with Teddy Bridgewater (QB – DEN) as his Quarterback. This season, his old QB Sam Darnold (QB – CAR) joins him in Carolina. So the question is, was his increase in production last year a result of the scheme or a result of the QB throwing to him?

Tight Ends

There isn’t a ton of variance between the ECR and Yahoo on the Tight Ends, probably because there simply aren’t that many that are Fantasy relevant. Here are 2 that are possible starters where the opinions vary a bit:

Noah Fant (TE – DEN)
Yahoo: 11, ECR: 7 (+4)

Fant’s range in the ECR is from TE #5 to TE #13. Thus, Yahoo is more pessimistic about him than most. Fant hasn’t shown he can be a consistent TE 1 in his first 2 seasons in the NFL. However, sometimes it takes a while for TE’s to get going, and he hasn’t exactly had the most stable QB play to this point. He was drafted in the first round by the Broncos for a reason, so a break-out season is certainly a possibility. There are safer options to draft as your TE 1, but not many have as much upside as Fant.

Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR)
Yahoo: 8, ECR: 11 (-3)

Higbee’s range goes from a high of TE #6 to a low of TE #22 among the ECR experts. Yahoo likes him more than most. With Gerald Everett (TE – SEA)no longer in L.A. to compete with him for targets, many feel Higbee could make a big jump this season, as he did closing out 2019 when Everett was sidelined with a knee injury. The Rams do have other Tight Ends on their roster, though, so it is no guarantee that Higbee will see more snaps this season.

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