Greetings, friends, and welcome to the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and defense/special teams based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
Since this is only Week 2 (and the first week of salary changes), most of the price fluctuations are on the conservative side. We’ll likely see bigger swings as the season goes on, but there are still plenty of prices worth targeting this week. Let’s get started.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool 
Quarterbacks
Greetings, friends, and welcome to the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and defense/special teams based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
Since this is only Week 2 (and the first week of salary changes), most of the price fluctuations are on the conservative side. We’ll likely see bigger swings as the season goes on, but there are still plenty of prices worth targeting this week. Let’s get started.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Ryan Tannehill (TEN - QB) at SEA, $7,300 (-$400)
The Titans were not good in Week 1. Ryan Tannehill completed 21-of-35 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown, and an interception in a blowout loss to the Cardinals. Chandler Jones recorded five sacks. Simply put, Week 1 was a mess for the Titans. At $7,300 (down $400 from last week), Tannehill is QB14 if you go by price. The catch here is that the Titans are playing at Seattle, and that stadium is going to be loud with fans back for the first time in a while. That certainly complicates matters, but I'm banking on a bounceback performance from Tannehill, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones, and I'm willing to pay QB14 money to find out.
Other notables: Lamar Jackson (BAL - QB) vs. KC, $8,300 (-$300)
DraftKings
Justin Herbert (LAC - QB) vs. DAL, $6,700 ($0)
Throughout this series, we will often target players with price decreases, as we did above with Ryan Tannehill. But that isn't always going to be the case. Sometimes, we'll find value by determining that a price hasn't increased enough. In the case of Justin Herbert, the price hasn't increased at all, and that's why this is our target. In Week 1, Herbert completed 31 of his 47 pass attempts for 337 yards and a touchdown while rushing four times for negative yardage against the Washington Football Team. The Cowboys allowed Tom Brady to throw for 379 yards and four touchdowns on Thursday night. And yet...Herbert's price tag is unchanged on DraftKings? The Cowboys are going to score points on offense in 2021, but this defense is very much a work in progress. Herbert should have seen a modest price increase in Week 2, so his $0 increase is our target against a susceptible Dallas defense.
Other notables: Derek Carr (LV - QB) at PIT, $5,300 (-$400)
Running Backs
FanDuel
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL - RB) at LAC, $7,500 (-$500)
A word we're going to use often in this space is "overcorrection." $8,000 was a reasonable price on FanDuel for Ezekiel Elliott in Week 1. In Week 2, $7,500 is more than reasonable. This price reduction is largely because Elliott rushed just 11 times for 33 yards in a Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers, but the Cowboys threw the ball 58 times in that game and clearly had a game script to emphasize the passing game and avoid a stout Tampa rushing defense. This team still wants to run the ball and feature Elliott when they can, and they have even more reason with Michael Gallup out. Look for Elliott to bounce back against the Chargers in Week 2, and take the discount on FanDuel.
Other notables: Derrick Henry (TEN - RB) at SEA, $8,000 (-$900)
DraftKings
Elijah Mitchell (SF - RB) at PHI, $5,000 (+$1,000)
It probably won't be often that we target $1,000 price increases in this series. But Elijah Mitchell was only $4,000 in Week 1 and is still just $5,000 in Week 2. At that price, he is RB29 on DraftKings and the 120th player overall. With Raheem Mostert out for the season, Mitchell is in line for an expanded role. The 49ers are likely to activate Trey Sermon for Week 2 after he was a healthy scratch in Week 1, but Mitchell figures to get the first crack at being RB1 in San Francisco. The Eagles allowed 124 rushing yards to the Falcons last week, but many of those yards came on Atlanta's first two drives of the game, before things got out of hand. Mitchell should find some running lanes on Sunday, and RB29 is a great price.
Other notables: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL - RB) at LAC, $6,200 (-$500)
Wide Receivers
FanDuel
Mike Evans (TB - WR) vs. ATL, $6,700 (-$900)
The only wide receiver with a bigger drop in price on FanDuel for Week 2 is Jerry Jeudy, who just landed on injured reserve. That's pretty much all you need to know about why you should be targeting Mike Evans against the Falcons. Yes, he had a disappointing Week 1, catching three of his six targets for just 24 yards. But he has true WR1 upside, and the Tampa Bay passing attack should have plenty of success against the Falcons. For this kind of discount, I'll have Evans in a ton of my GPP lineups in Week 2.
Other notables: Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR) at IND, $6,200 ($0)
DraftKings
Allen Robinson II (CHI - WR) vs. CIN, $6,200 (-$600)
Allen Robinson caught six passes for just 35 yards in Week 1, but he was targeted 11 times. The Bears have an Andy Dalton problem, at least until they hand the keys to Justin Fields. But Robinson had to deal with Jalen Ramsey last week, something he won't have to worry about in Week 2. He is clearly the top receiving option in Chicago and should find more success against the Bengals. Take the discount and the production.
Other notables: Calvin Ridley (ATL - WR), $7,500 (-$400)
Tight Ends
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts (ATL - TE) at TB, $5,500 (-$500)
The Kyle Pitts NFL debut was...disappointing. He caught four of his eight targets for 31 yards despite the Falcons trailing for nearly the entire game. But he did tie Calvin Ridley with eight targets in an indication how just how much he is likely to be featured in this new-look Atlanta offense. FanDuel has dropped his price by $500 in Week 2, while DraftKings has RAISED his price by $800, which is tied with Rob Gronkowski for the biggest increase on DK. And while DraftKings probably had him too low at $4,400 in Week 1, the price increase shows they expect increased production from the young tight end going forward. Pitts is the seventh-most expensive tight end on FanDuel but is projected to finish as TE3.
Other notables: Robert Tonyan (GB - TE) vs. DET, $5,000 (-$400)
DraftKings
Noah Fant (DEN - TE) at JAC, $4,200 (-$100)
Noah Fant caught six of his eight targets for 62 yards in Sunday's win over the New York Giants. In that same game, the Broncos also lost wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to a high-ankle sprain. Fant was already going to be a featured aspect of the offense in 2021, but his role should increase over the next month with Jeudy out. His already affordable price is down $100 in Week 2 on DraftKings, making Fant an attractive value.
Other notables: Mike Gesicki (MIA - TE) vs. BUF, $4,000 (-$500)
Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
