Thanksgiving is Thursday, bringing a three-game NFL slate with it. So, let’s look at each game below, hoping to unearth the best daily fantasy picks and make this a profitable holiday.
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Week 12 Thanksgiving Matchups
Game: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Spread: CHI -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Bears Analysis: Remarkably, the Bears aren't the most pathetic team in this game. They can thank their more hapless opponent, the Lions, for owning that dubious distinction. Additionally, the Bears have one of my favorite picks at a position on their team.
David Montgomery is explicitly my favorite running back on the Thanksgiving slate. According to our snap counts, Montgomery has played the highest percentage of snaps among running backs in Week 9 (85%) and Week 11 (95%), his last two games played. In those games, he has amassed 121 rushing yards, three receptions, and 26 receiving yards. Montgomery is a bell-cow. Additionally, he has a mouthwatering matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Lions are 29th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, they yield the third-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs.
The other top-shelf option from the Bears is the burgeoning second-year receiver, Darnell Mooney. This week, Andy Dalton is starting for the Bears, and Mooney excelled with the Red Rifle throwing the ball to him last week. In Week 11, Dalton attempted 23 passes, directing 11 to Mooney for three receptions, 70 yards, and one touchdown. Mooney, like Montgomery, has a great matchup. The Lions are 28th in pass defense DVOA and allowing a whopping 14.17 yards per reception to receivers this year.
Also, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Lions are allowing the third-highest average explosive pass rate (12%). Thus, blazing speedster Marquise Goodwin is a nifty dart throw. Last week, Dalton targeted five times at 80 air yards, resulting in three receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown.
I would never suggest Jimmy Graham on a full slate. However, three-game slates are weird. If you don't want to pay for a top-flight tight end, you can pray for a Graham touchdown and hope he delivers. Dalton has attempted three passes from the 15-yard line or closer to scoring, and he has thrown one Graham's way. So, maybe he'll connect with the big-bodied veteran for a touchdown.
I will not pay for the Bears' slate-high salary on defense at FanDuel. However, they're a great option at DraftKings. Jared Goff is reportedly "leaning" toward playing. Goff is taking sacks at the 11th-highest rate (7.2%) among qualified quarterbacks, according to Pro-Football-Reference. He's also leading the NFL's third-lowest scoring offense (16.0 points per game). So this is a great spot for Chicago's defense to score points as a favorite.
Lions Analysis: Somehow, Goff's likely return is actually good for Detroit's offense. Nevertheless, I'm not crazy about using T.J. Hockenson with Goff, presumably at less than 100%, and other stellar alternatives on the slate. Still, I've included him in the table because he's been good enough to persevere through Goff's lackluster play, making him at least defensible.
I'm most interested in D'Andre Swift from the Lions. The second-year running back is one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, Swift is second in routes (268) and receiving yards (420) and first in targets (65) and receptions (53). However, in a recent development, he's ripping defenses on the ground. Swift has rushed for 130 yards and 136 yards in his previous two games, adding a touchdown. Swift is projected to be the RB1 on DraftKings and FanDuel, boasting the second-highest value score to DraftKings and top value score at FanDuel.
Finally, the Lions are the second-cheapest defense on FanDuel and tied for the cheapest defense on DraftKings. Meanwhile, Chicago's offense isn't anything to write home about. Further, Dalton's 6.4% sack rate bodes well for the Lions having opportunities to score points via sacks.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Raiders Analysis: Derek Carr struggles to move the ball and put up points for the Raiders without Henry Ruggs III. The Raiders have scored 16 points, 14 points, and 13 points in the previous three games. Thus, it's hard to get excited about most of the offense.
However, he's enabled Darren Waller to get back on track. Yes, Waller stunk in Week 10. However, he was good for seven receptions and 92 yards in Week 9 and seven receptions with 116 receiving yards in Week 11. Waller has a favorable matchup for producing a third excellent line in his last four games. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Cowboys are allowing the 11th-most DraftKings and eighth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Waller is worth spending top dollar as the projected top scorer at the position with the best value score to boot.
I'm probably fading Josh Jacobs wholly, for full disclosure. He's an inefficient runner, and he's not offsetting it with volume. Thus, he's rushed for 40 yards or fewer in five of eight games, including three of his last four. However, I'm not entirely dismissing him from consideration because of a growing role in the passing game. Last week, he ran 19 routes to only eight for Kenyan Drake.
Additionally, Jacobs ran 19 routes to just 12 for Drake in Week 10. In those two games, he hauled in 10 receptions on 12 targets for 44 yards. Thus, Jacobs' receptions are adding enhancing his floor. Still, as an inefficient player across the board, it's impossible for me to get excited about a touchdown-dependent ceiling.
Finally, DeSean Jackson is a contrarian option from the Raiders. This is D-Jax's third game for the Raiders. So, maybe he's absorbed more of the team's playbook, potentially enhancing his role in the offense. Jackson doubled his routes from five in his debut to 10 in his second game. He' a field-stretching whiz at his best, evidenced by erupting for a 3-120-1 line on four targets with the Rams back in Week 3. The Cowboys might be the matchup to unlock another D-Jax blowup. They're ceding the seventh-highest average explosive pass rate (10%). I anticipate firing a bullet or two on D-Jax in GPPs.
Cowboys Analysis: Amari Cooper is out, and CeeDee Lamb is still in the concussion protocol, making him a long-shot to gain clearance for this game. Thus, it might behoove Dallas to lean on Ezekiel Elliott. The Raiders are a mid-pack run defense (15th in rush defense DVOA), and the Cowboys are an elite run-blocking team. According to Football Outsiders, Dallas is third in Adjusted Line Yards. Pro Football Focus is even more enamored with Dallas' run-blocking prowess, grading them as the top run-blocking team in the NFL. Zeke's taken advantage of the luxury of running behind a great line to run for the ninth-most yards per game (69.5) and tying for the sixth-most rushing touchdowns (six). It's also possible his number will be called more in the passing game on the heels of securing all six of his targets for 36 yards last week.
I'm lukewarm on using Dak Prescott if Lamb joins Cooper in street clothes for this game. Nevertheless, this three-game slate is light on quarterback talent, making Prescott my second-favorite signal-caller en lieu of the less-than-ideal circumstances. Further, the matchup is good for Prescott overcoming the likely absences of his top two wideouts. The Raiders are 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, and Cedrick Wilson are all in for enhanced roles in the offense. In Week 11, Gallup ran the most routes (46), Schultz ran the second-most routes (45), and Wilson tied for the fourth-most routes (31) on the Cowboys. Predictably, they also each ranked in the top three on the team in targets and receiving yards. As a result, all three players are on my radar.
Finally, I love the Cowboys' defense on both sites. They're more than a touchdown favorite at home, playing a struggling offense, pressuring the quarterback at a top-10 rate (26.1%), and tying for fourth in turnovers forced (19).
Game: Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints
Spread: BUF -6.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Bills Analysis: The Bills and Saints are playing in the main showdown slate on Thanksgiving. As such, I wrote about both teams in-depth for Week 12 Thursday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Bills at Saints). I don't have anything to add to my analysis of Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Emmanuel Sanders, and Dawson Knox. They're all excellent picks on this three-game slate, too. Specifically, Allen is the projected top-scorer on the slate, and Diggs is projected as the third-highest overall scorer at DraftKing and fifth-highest scorer at FanDuel.
I also discussed Matt Breida in the linked showdown piece. However, perhaps surprisingly, I'm more intrigued by him on the three-game slate. He will likely garner more attention on the single-game slate. Thus, he's a potential contrarian play on this slate. Breida has been Buffalo's most productive back in back-to-back games. Breida has parlayed eight rush attempts into 79 yards and a touchdown, adding four receptions for 38 yards and a touchdown for good measure. He's explosive, something neither Devin Singletary nor Zack Moss can claim. I'll probably take a few chances on Breida's role expanding in GPPs on Thanksgiving.
Finally, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater after Buffalo's disastrous defensive showing last week. The Saints don't have a Jonathan Taylor in their backfield. Further, they don't have Carson Wentz or Michael Pittman Jr., either. Also, even with their Week 11 hiccup, Buffalo's defense is second in turnovers forced (24) and first in pressure rate (30.5%) and yards per play allowed (4.7). We project them to lead defenses in scoring on this three-game slate, suffice to say, making them a rock-solid selection.
Saints Analysis: Mark Ingram II is easily the best option on the Saints if he is healthy enough to play. If he's out, the backfield is a situation to avoid. As the lead back the last two weeks, Ingram has surpassed 100 scrimmage yards in both games, hauling in 10 receptions and scoring a touchdown. Volume is the king in fantasy, and Ingram is getting it without Alvin Kamara. Kamara hasn't practiced this week, and Ingram was estimated as a limited participant on Monday before downgrading to a non-participant on Tuesday. Unfortunately, this is the latest game on the slate, creating a risk to counting on Ingram without prior confirmation he'll be active. So, you'll have to assess risk and stay abreast of news about his injury.
Finally, I discussed the highlighted pass-catchers in the table -- Tre'Quan Smith, Deonte Harris, Juwan Johnson, and Nick Vannett -- in Week 12 Thursday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Bills at Saints). So, I won't rehash what I discussed there. If you think the top tight ends will bust, Johnson and Vannett, are punts that might clear the low bar needed to provide daily fantasy value in the stead of injured Adam Trautman.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
